Mirrorball Mayhem: Don’t forget to factor in the Alternative Demographic Factor
It’s an honor to be writing for PureDWTS.com! Having been a regular viewer and enormous fan of DWTS since the second season, and a constant viewer since season four, I have noted a number of trends that have occurred over the various seasons. And I’ve noted that often the biggest factor in viewer’s voting, one that has been a constant throughout each season, has been what I call the Alternate Demographic Factor.
The Alternate Demographic Factor, or ADF for short, aka the specialized fanbase, has decided a number of seasons. And it has a tendency to keep people around longer than they perhaps should.
Last season was a perfect example. Ty Murray made it to the finals, despite the fact that most people had no idea who he was, he was an incredibly stiff dancer, and to be blunt was just really bad about 60% of the time. When the season started, everyone said “Who?”, and “A rodeo guy? What kind of star is that?” and other various sundry things. But by the end of the season, his winning personality and genuine sweet charm had won him a whole new legion of fans. He came back week after week, hanging on over other people he really had no business beating, such as Li’l Kim. Why? Ty tapped into his natural fan base – his fans from the rodeo circuit. These fans saw Ty as their chance to make a mark and a breakthrough to a general audience base. And Ty was the perfect representative of their interests.
Who knew who Helio Castroneves was before his turn on the show? Racing fans – but almost no one else. And Helio and his partner Julianne Hough worked that fan base like never before. Again, his genuine sweetness and undeniable charm helped win over the dancing fans, and he eventually went on to capture the revered Mirrorball trophy as season five’s champion, beating out the people who most fans thought were sure to capture the title, Mel B and Maks.
Season eight also had a huge fanbase issue. Shawn Johnson was an underdog when she first joined the compettition, a 17 year old Olympic gold medal winner who was known for just two days of competition at the Bejing Olympics. But she had a huge fanbase, not just from the olympic fans, but general gymnastic fans, and a midwestern loyalty to Iowa’s favorite daughter. She upset expected champs Gilles Marini and Cheryl Burke, and everyone was stunned and amazed, but given the olympic track record, they probably shouldn’t have been.
There have been other demo factors as well. The seniors came out week after week for Cloris Leachman and kept her around much much MUCH longer than they should have; the boy band fans helped both Joey Fatone and Lance Bass make the finals (and genuine dancing talent didn’t hurt either); football fans have come out in droves to support Jason Taylor, Warren Sapp, and 3rd season champion Emmitt Smith, among others. I could go on and on about it, but I think you get my drift here…
Once again, despite the odds and the previous history lessons, the same things I heard last year about Ty Murray I’ve been hearing again since last week’s announcement about a number of this seasons competitors, but most notably two sports figures little known outside their respective sports. As they say, those who forget history are doomed to repeat it, and that’s exactly what’s happening, with many fans pooh-poohing the inclusion of UFC former champion Chuck Liddell and especially champion snowboarder Louie Vito in this year’s cast.
A disclaimer of sorts here – I have been advocating the inclusion of an extreme sports star on DWTS on our Popcorn N Roses website and Subject:CINEMA podcasts for over a year now, three seasons in DWTS time, and I have focused most of that attenion of Vito because I’m a huge fan of his and because he’d already interviewed for it last year. But I would have been happy with ANY extreme sports star, from skateboarders Bob Burnquist and Bucky Lasek to other snowboarders like Mike Goldschmidt, Danny Davis, Scotty Lago, and Shaun White to BMX champs like Dave Mirra, Anthony Napolitan, Garrett Reynolds, Daniel Dhers, and Jamie Bestwick. But I’m especially happy they went with Vito because he’s a charming, talented and funny guy who puts everything he has into whatever he does. He has a better-than-average shot at making the 2010 mens snowboard Olympic team, and as my wife says, he’s just so gosh-darned cute.
It’s evident that sports fans are especially rabid when it comes to voting for their guys and gals. As long as they don’t embarrass the sport, or don’t look terrible (Ty Murray aside) on the dance floor, their votes have been enough to bring them back week after week. Again, look to the fact that since the show started there have been over a dozen sports-oriented stars in the top four, and FIVE of them – more than HALF over 8 seasons – have been Champions – Emmitt Smith, Apolo Anton Ohno, Helio Castroneves, Kristi Yamaguchi, and Shawn Johnson. Three more were just narrowly beaten for the MirrorBall – Jerry Rice, Jason Taylor, and Warren Sapp. And three more have made the final four – Stacy Keibler, Lalia Ali, and Ty Murray. And consider this – only one Olympian hasn’t won; Misty May-Trainor had to bow out with an injury. Otherwise, I believe it was quite possible that she too would have at least made the final four.
It’s not all about popularity. Many of the stars who have danced on the show were not well known before they appeared except with an already existing fan base. And even those who were, and who were just average on the dance floor – think Marie Osmond, Ian Ziering, or Cameron Mathison – they were kept around by their existing fan base and the new fans they built from the regular DWTS viewers. Cameron and also Marissa Jaret Winoker weren’t terrific on the dance floor, but they had fun, they let the viewers know they were having fun, and that they REALLY wanted to stick around. And the fans delivered as long as they could. And they both made it longer than anyone thought they would, with Cameron getting fifth place his season, and Marissa making the semi-finals in hers.
Back to Louie Vito for a moment – from what I’ve read around the net in the past week, some people, a lot of them big DWTS fans, are already counting him out. But Louie is one of the most savvy extreme guys out there. He has a well oiled fan base thanks to his well designed website, he Twitters regularly, he has a huge mailing list, and has followings on Facebook and MySpace. And that doesn’t even count the many often rabidly loyal snowboarding fans, or fans of extreme sports in general. He is also known to throw everything he has at what he does, which is how he came to be one of the top snowboarders on the contest circuit. He has TV experience, hosting a couple of extreme-oriented tv shows and occasionally doing commentary. And he knows how to market himself. All of which could play a role in how long he lasts, particularly if he turns out to be actually passable as a dancer. Somehow, knowing Louie from being a fan of his for a long time, I have the feeling he’s going to surprise a LOT of people.
Last season, no one I knew had any idea who the heck Gilles Marini was. By the end of the season, he was genuinely a STAR. IN fact, he was THE breakthrough star of the season. And the fans that the stars make while dancing also carry over to their natural fanbase after the exposure. For proof, look to the ratings for the Indianapolis 500- they had been declining steadily for several years, but suddenly took a jump from 4.7 in 2007 to a 5.1 in 2008, after Helio Castroneves won the Mirrorball the previous fall. Was it DWTS fans tuning in? Could be, could be…
All in all, if there’s anything that’s been proven over the past eight season, it’s that ANYONE can make it to the top four. And even the best known or well-loved can take an early fall, like Li’l Kim or Sabrina Bryan. It’s going to be up to the “Nobody knows them” stars – Vito, Liddell, Joanna Krupa, Natalie Coughlin and others – to prove they can make new fans. And that’s really what it’s all about, isn’t it?
Let the dancing commence! Oh, and one other thing…GO LOUIE!
i agree with most of you write but Shawn was not know for only two days of beijing(there were 5 days but whatever) since 2007 she is been all over the place when she win every thing that she was on ,been the only fourth american women to be the world all around champion , she went on Ellen before the olympics and she was not consider a underdog on dwts , for a lot of people she was a ringer before the season even started, she was consider by a lot of people the most famous person on the cast.
And Ty went all the way to the semi final because everybody fall in love for him ,not only the rodeo people voted for him and i dont think that he made that far becouse of the rodeo fans.
and LIl kim ,i love LIl kim ,she really deserved go to the semi finals but she only went out one week early ,she was not going to make the final ,she was a great dancer but GIlles ,MElissa and Shawn were better than her , as much as i love lil kim she make a lot of mistakes on her dances ,Derek always have to help her in the middle of a dance and the mistakes were very visible (even in the jive that was really cool ,she made so many mistakes).
Phillippe, I have to say I disagree entirely with your view – no one I knew who watched the show had the foggiest notion of who Shawn Johnson was – she was not a huge commodity at all. Gymnastic fans knew her, and then the rest of the viewers got to know her. But I have to say I don’t agree with you about her being better than Li’l Kim, nor do I think Shawn and Mark should have won the Mirrorball – I think that should have gone to Gilles and Cheryl. And Ty – there is no way he could have lasted past the midseason point without the huge influx of Rodeo fans; I understand from others that there were even several fans sites encouraging his rodeo fans to vote for him on DWTS. So it definately played a major part, just as votefortheworst.com kept Sanjaya on American Idol far past his breaking point…
Thanks for your insight, though…all fans have such varying views of things! 🙂
Sorry, I have to side with Phillipe for the most part. I called Shawn for the win as soon as she was announced. She was the ringer of the season – I don’t think there’s even a question. It’s not so much about people knowing who she is within the people who watch DWTS (although I think you’re way off on her being unknown there – I knew who she was and I didn’t watch the olympics, but neither my nor your annecdotal evidence on who knew who counts for anything in this discussion) – it’s that she’s an Olympian with a huge fanbase AND that she’s a gymnast. Gymnasts generally take a lot of dance during training and they are already conditioned for the training. So, she was never the underdog. She was certainly more well known than Gilles and Melissa (although that may be close due to the bachelor).
As for Lil’ Kim, I am a HUGE Derek fan and I loved lil’ Kim, but I have to agree that she was never destined for top 3. Top 4, yes. There is no way to measure how many fans Ty made versus how many came from the rodeo circuit – it’s just not possible. I would argue that he made fans as he went and that people assumed Lil’ Kim didn’t need the votes, in addition to her fans not crossing over to vote. It’s not so simple an equation as you would like to make it.
I will agree that Gilles should have won. 🙂
I think the other thing you’re missing about Ty is that he’d had horrible performances for weeks and the week that he was likely to be sent home, he somehow pulled something out of his rear end and got high scores. I can’t remember which week it was, but I remember looking at the scores and thinking that Ty was lucky that the dance he had that week was great for him and he was able to score that high.
Shawn definitely was a known name. She was the little princess going into the Olympic year. In fact, I’m sure NBC was disappointed that Nastia Lukin upstaged Shawn at the Olympics. Shawn was the golden child that would have been a marketing wonder, but Nastia took a lot of that away by totally whooping Shawn at the Olympics.
All of that said, there is something to say about “minority” groups voting for their own more passionately than others might expect. I think this is true.
Dang, I had a long comment written out and lost it. :::sigh:::
Suffice it to say that I think your logic is more than a little faulty – you leave out too many other elements that are in play in the voting on this show. For another thing, you make too many statements of fact – assumptions that you are correct. Wrong – you have no way of proving any of your assertions, therefore you are way off base with your comment “those who forget history are doomed to repeat it”. History isn’t theoretical. That’s condescending from where I’m sitting.
A key thing you leave out is the size of the Alternative Demographic – in a very large voting population that demographic would have to be very large indeed to have an impact that would carry someone to the final four – rodeo? No, I don’t think so. Racing and Olympics? Quite possibly. Older people? I’m sure they vote, but for Cloris – that’s condescending, again, assuming that old people will vote for other old people. Plus Cloris didn’t make it so far that she needed a huge demographic supporting her – plus, she had vote for the worst, who should never be underestimated.
Here’s what I think you fail to consider in addition to your alternative demographic:
1) The rest of the cast. Did they all suck? Were there only two other good ones?
2) The pro – how popular are they? Is their name Ballas, Hough or Burke? Hate it or like it, Julianne, Derek, Cheryl and Mark have large fanbases of their very own – Jules in particular.
3) How good a dancer were they? Many of those people you list were actually good dancers – and how did their ability compare to those around them?
4) Because many of them are athletes, they are already accustomed to the training times, which allows them to become better dancers faster.
5) The size of their alternative demographic IN RELATION to the total voting population, like I said.
6) What happens to a celeb’s voters once that celeb leaves? They go somewhere. Most likely they go to other celebs that they’ve grown to love over the course of a season – I would argue that Apolo and some of the other are extremely likeable, in addition to being good dancers and having large fanbases.
I’m not saying your completely wrong – I think you have a lot of correct elements. I also think that Louie and Chuck could do very well – or they might not. they are not a lock like I think Shawn and Kristi were. And they have MUCH stiffer competition than shawn or Kristi did, by my reckoning. You also recognize that popular people leave early for a variety of reasons – you have to accept that may happen to Louie as well.
Add me to the group who disagree with the analysis. I’d never heard of Ty before the competition (and I’ve watched DWTS since it’s inception). Of my friends, 15 of them were voting for Ty (I’m a Gilles fan). Of those 15, NONE watch professional rodeo. Instead, all were swept away by Ty’s work ethic and charm. In fact, if I didn’t like Gilles so much, I might have voted for Ty myself. He’s emblematic to me of someone who improved greatly, worked hard, and has the personality to move people to vote. That’s what DWTS is about to a lot of people.
Incidentally, I voted for Helio and never watched a car race in my life (nor have *any* of my friends). I think your sample group doesn’t represent the millions of everyday folks who are not ballroom fanatics but vote on the show. There are a lot of us! So no … it was not some weird small fanbase that was manipulated to vote, vote, vote for “their guy” but rather a lot of everyday people who expressed their opinion via the vote!