The “Shocking” Elimination!

One of the things that drives me absolutely crazy is the headlines related to DWTS at this point in the season – well, really, all times of the season. “Shocking Elimination!!!” Even sites dedicated to DWTS, who should know better. Um, peeps? Only if you don’t do math. This past week it was Joanna’s “shocking elimination” – geez, where have these people been?? Joanna up against:

  • Donny Osmond – former pop star whose massive fanbase aligns nearly perfectly with the DWTS voting population.
  • Kelly Osbourne – New America’s sweetheart. Face it – everyone loves an underdog, especially one with a CUTE dog.
  • Mya – Also well known, has been dancing her whole life and who is arguably the best technical dancer on the show, despite her issues connecting with Dmitry (even Mya acknowledges it, people – watch LKL).
  • At this point in the season, all the voters are focusing on four people. The vote is only divided four ways. Does that matter? Well, I guess it depends on how you look at it. It could matter when you have a relative unknown up against three famous (or notorious) people, two of them being accomplished performers. Oh, but “Joanna had high scores,” you might say. “She must really be unpopular or not well liked,” you might say, in order for her to be voted out when Donny was so far behind her in judges scores.

    I say BULL. It doesn’t matter what the judges scores are, unless there is an extreme difference (and I don’t mean 10 points)…because of the MATH. Here’s how the show supposedly works:

    Judges Scores:
    Mya = 87
    Joanna = 81
    Kelly = 78
    Donny = 72

    Add up the total points given = 318
    Now figure the percentage of total points each celeb got:
    Mya = 27.36
    Joanna = 25.47
    Kelly = 24.53
    Donny = 22.64

    As you can see, there is a relatively small difference between the scores; less than one percent difference between Joanna and Kelly, and only 1.88 percent between Joanna and Mya. Donny is only 2.83 percent behind Joanna! Keep in mind that he is DONNY OSMOND. Remember Marie versus Jennie Garth? Same situation. Same pro on the losing end. ;-)

    According to the rules of the show, the contestant’s share of the judges points is added to their percentage of the viewer votes. What that means is that that if Joanna receives 25 percent of the vote and Kelly and Donny receive 25.95 and 27.84 percent of the vote, respectively, Joanna goes home. Because the judges share is added to the voter share:

    Joanna 25.47+25=50.47
    Kelly24.53+25.95=50.48
    Donny22.64+27.84=50.48

    As you can see, a relatively minor difference in the vote can send Joanna home over Kelly or Donny. Because the contestant’s share of the viewer votes is never revealed, you can never be sure who is going to leave. There is no way to measure who is “popular” beyond anecdotal evidence. Go back and do the math on Aaron – was he really disliked, or was he just a little behind because he turned a few people off? Just because he was at the top of the leader board and went home doesn’t mean everyone hated him – not at all. It just doesn’t take much.

    Now, if there are any Mya/Dmitry fans out there saying “She can’t lose!! She’s so fabulous!!” Wrong – she absolutely CAN lose and it won’t be difficult, unless the judges REALLY go out on a limb and keep a good ten to fifteen points between Mya, and Donny/Kelly. Will they? History says that they won’t go radical on the scoring in the finale – unless Donny has another meltdown, there won’t be a 16 point difference between them, or a ten point difference between Mya and Kelly. But, for the sake of argument, let’s say that the judges break with tradition (and stop covering their own butts for fear of scoring the winner really low) and keep the spread as it was last week. I’m going to assume that the “four dances” rumor is accurate. That means the scores would be as follows:

    Judges Scores (total possible is 120):
    Mya = 118
    Kelly = 108
    Donny = 102

    Add up the total points given = 328
    Now figure the percentage of total points each celeb got:
    Mya = 35.98
    Kelly = 32.93
    Donny = 31.1

    Again, the difference between Donny and Mya is ONLY 4.88 percent, and the difference between Kelly and Mya is only 3.07 percent.

    So, my questions are two fold:

    Can Donny garner 4.89 percent MORE than Mya in terms of viewer votes??
    AND
    Can Kelly garner 3.08 percent more than Mya in terms of viewer votes??

    Keep in mind that I’m *assuming* that the spread will be similar. What if it’s not?? Personally, based purely on math and anecdotal evidence, I think that Donny can beat Mya handily. The real question is – can Kelly beat Mya? I would NOT consider that “shocking”.

    However, since we have no clue about how the votes have been stacking up all along it’s very difficult to be sure. And no, that whole “in jeopardy” thing doesn’t count for a hill of beans – it’s all crap and manipulation. Unless ole Tom says, “The bottom two are…” then you don’t really know. They freely use “jeopardy” as a manipulation/drama tool. I certainly believe that they can’t rig who goes and who wins, but I do believe they can pretend someone is in a fake bottom two – no law against it.  Another thing that ALWAYS amuses me is that fans of a given couple always forget that when someone is voted out, often the people who voted for them vote for someone else – if ya go around trashing the voted out couple and rejoicing their being booted…well, odds are good that their fans won’t vote for YOUR favorite. And, as I’ve shown, every vote counts.  Mya and Donny fans should be careful – they could see a bunch of Joanna and Aaron fans (among others) voting for KELLY. :-)  Think 3.08 percent. :-)

    So, you’ve heard the complaints about all three of these finalists, and you have an idea of their fanbases. Who has the math working for them??  And who will have the killer freestyle – some people say that means EVERYTHING.

    **I used excel to do the math and I rounded – let me know if you see a math error.