The “Shocking” Elimination!
One of the things that drives me absolutely crazy is the headlines related to DWTS at this point in the season – well, really, all times of the season. “Shocking Elimination!!!” Even sites dedicated to DWTS, who should know better. Um, peeps? Only if you don’t do math. This past week it was Joanna’s “shocking elimination” – geez, where have these people been?? Joanna up against:
At this point in the season, all the voters are focusing on four people. The vote is only divided four ways. Does that matter? Well, I guess it depends on how you look at it. It could matter when you have a relative unknown up against three famous (or notorious) people, two of them being accomplished performers. Oh, but “Joanna had high scores,” you might say. “She must really be unpopular or not well liked,” you might say, in order for her to be voted out when Donny was so far behind her in judges scores.
I say BULL. It doesn’t matter what the judges scores are, unless there is an extreme difference (and I don’t mean 10 points)…because of the MATH. Here’s how the show supposedly works:
Judges Scores:
Mya = 87
Joanna = 81
Kelly = 78
Donny = 72
Add up the total points given = 318
Now figure the percentage of total points each celeb got:
Mya = 27.36
Joanna = 25.47
Kelly = 24.53
Donny = 22.64
As you can see, there is a relatively small difference between the scores; less than one percent difference between Joanna and Kelly, and only 1.88 percent between Joanna and Mya. Donny is only 2.83 percent behind Joanna! Keep in mind that he is DONNY OSMOND. Remember Marie versus Jennie Garth? Same situation. Same pro on the losing end. 😉
According to the rules of the show, the contestant’s share of the judges points is added to their percentage of the viewer votes. What that means is that that if Joanna receives 25 percent of the vote and Kelly and Donny receive 25.95 and 27.84 percent of the vote, respectively, Joanna goes home. Because the judges share is added to the voter share:
Joanna 25.47+25=50.47
Kelly24.53+25.95=50.48
Donny22.64+27.84=50.48
As you can see, a relatively minor difference in the vote can send Joanna home over Kelly or Donny. Because the contestant’s share of the viewer votes is never revealed, you can never be sure who is going to leave. There is no way to measure who is “popular” beyond anecdotal evidence. Go back and do the math on Aaron – was he really disliked, or was he just a little behind because he turned a few people off? Just because he was at the top of the leader board and went home doesn’t mean everyone hated him – not at all. It just doesn’t take much.
Now, if there are any Mya/Dmitry fans out there saying “She can’t lose!! She’s so fabulous!!” Wrong – she absolutely CAN lose and it won’t be difficult, unless the judges REALLY go out on a limb and keep a good ten to fifteen points between Mya, and Donny/Kelly. Will they? History says that they won’t go radical on the scoring in the finale – unless Donny has another meltdown, there won’t be a 16 point difference between them, or a ten point difference between Mya and Kelly. But, for the sake of argument, let’s say that the judges break with tradition (and stop covering their own butts for fear of scoring the winner really low) and keep the spread as it was last week. I’m going to assume that the “four dances” rumor is accurate. That means the scores would be as follows:
Judges Scores (total possible is 120):
Mya = 118
Kelly = 108
Donny = 102
Add up the total points given = 328
Now figure the percentage of total points each celeb got:
Mya = 35.98
Kelly = 32.93
Donny = 31.1
Again, the difference between Donny and Mya is ONLY 4.88 percent, and the difference between Kelly and Mya is only 3.07 percent.
So, my questions are two fold:
Can Donny garner 4.89 percent MORE than Mya in terms of viewer votes??
AND
Can Kelly garner 3.08 percent more than Mya in terms of viewer votes??
Keep in mind that I’m *assuming* that the spread will be similar. What if it’s not?? Personally, based purely on math and anecdotal evidence, I think that Donny can beat Mya handily. The real question is – can Kelly beat Mya? I would NOT consider that “shocking”.
However, since we have no clue about how the votes have been stacking up all along it’s very difficult to be sure. And no, that whole “in jeopardy” thing doesn’t count for a hill of beans – it’s all crap and manipulation. Unless ole Tom says, “The bottom two are…” then you don’t really know. They freely use “jeopardy” as a manipulation/drama tool. I certainly believe that they can’t rig who goes and who wins, but I do believe they can pretend someone is in a fake bottom two – no law against it. Another thing that ALWAYS amuses me is that fans of a given couple always forget that when someone is voted out, often the people who voted for them vote for someone else – if ya go around trashing the voted out couple and rejoicing their being booted…well, odds are good that their fans won’t vote for YOUR favorite. And, as I’ve shown, every vote counts. Mya and Donny fans should be careful – they could see a bunch of Joanna and Aaron fans (among others) voting for KELLY. 🙂 Think 3.08 percent. 🙂
So, you’ve heard the complaints about all three of these finalists, and you have an idea of their fanbases. Who has the math working for them?? And who will have the killer freestyle – some people say that means EVERYTHING.
**I used excel to do the math and I rounded – let me know if you see a math error.
i’m pretty sure that anyone can win this, even Kelly (she is not a good dancer at all)
since i don’t care about anyone in this final i’ll vote for Kym, i love her and she deserve to win even if that means that donny will win too he is not a good dancer too)
I can’t bring myself to vote for MYa, she left me cold.
I SEE NOW THAT IS POSSIBLE FOR ANYONE OF THE LAST THREE 2 WIN. MYA’S THE JUDGE’S CHOICE. EVERYONE THINKS SHE’S WON. KELLY’S JUST CUTE. DONNY HAS WORKED HARD W/O ANY OF THE JUDGES HELP HE’S IN THE FINALS. I CAN SEE THAT DONNY CAN WIN .THE JUDGES DON’T WANT DONNY TO WIN. WHO KNOWS WHAT THEY WILL DO 2 HIM IN THE FINALS. I AGREE BE KIND TO THE ELIMINATED STARS. THE VOTERS NEED TO PICK THE WINNER NOT THE JUDGES. IT IS TIME THOUGH FOR KYM 2 FINALLY BE 1ST SHE BEEN 2ND ENOUGH. ( 2X’S) ALREADY SHE DESERVES A WIN.
Thank you P. Heidi for the lesson. I’m happy to see how this works. I had no idea. I hope the judges are fair to all 3 of the finalist. They are working so hard to get where they are. They have been favoring Mya and Kelly all season. I would hate to see this continue through the finals. Donny deserves to be given a fair chance to win as the women do. I’m with Phillip and Kim there’s something about Mya I just can’t vote for her. Kelly improved alot from the start of the show. But I have to say that I think Donny has improved the most from day one and will probably get my vote. I feel like he hasn’t been treated well by the judges and Kym has done such a good job teaching him the dances. Donny has been different from the other male “stars” this season he doesn’t just stand there he dances and is alot of fun to watch. But it is up to the voters I’m happy to say not the judges to decide who wins DWTS.(At least I hope the judges will be fair in the finals It just could someone besides Mya that wins. Possibly Donny Osmond
I called it as Donny’s show to lose early on based solely fanbase. I don’t think the judges have been harsh on him at all, and I don’t think he’s *usually* underscored either – but I do think that there have been times when the judges scored Kelly where my response was, “WTF??” And that has essentially the same impact, if you follow me. Scoring one person fairly while over scoring another has the effect of “unfairness” on those who got the scores they deserved.
I would argue, also, that they were pretty critical of Mya for the early part of the show – some of it deserved, and some of it not. Dmitry seems to think he’s still choreographing for SYTYCD – and he’s SO not. A side benefit of people being harsh on you, whether your name is Mya or Donny, is that it motivates that person’s fanbase and makes them vote more. So, I would never complain about harsh words – they often have the opposite impact.
I honestly have NO clue who’s going to win this thing – watch the scoring on Monday night, though. That will be interesting – part of me honestly believes that once we get to the final four or five, the producers don’t really care who wins as long as there is drama and joy. The judges, OTOH, do have favorites – Len was quite pissed when Gilles didn’t win last year. I’ll be curious if they score based on who they think is “worthy” this season. I won’t be upset if Donny/Kym or Kelly/Louis win – both pros have been with the show for a while and have never won. I love Kelly, and I don’t mind Donny *MOST of the time*. Mya bugs me for a variety of reasons and Dmitry’s “I’m a rebel” shtick from the other day was…not charming. But then, I’ve not been crazy about him ever since his crappy comment about Holly last season. It’s any body’s game.
What a great article, thanks!
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I agree it’s actually better to get some harsh criticism b/c the fans go “oh no they didn’t” 🙂 and vote more. Thanks for the lesson Heidi, I never really understood how my votes counted.
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