DWTS10 Preliminary Power Rankings – Part I
Good grief…where did season 9 go??? I feel like it was just a few weeks ago that I was trying my best to like Donny and was gunning hard for Kelly…but alas, season 10 is upon us, and you know what that means – it’s time for my preliminary power ranking of this season’s celebs!
For those of you who are new to the site (or don’t remember from last season), I do a weekly power ranking of the couples based on their performances that week – this ranking is basically a measure of how likely a couple is to stick around to the following week, and it’s based on several factors: how well they perform, how well-liked they are, how well-known they are, how strong their voting “demographic” is, how memorable they are, etc. It is not necessarily a measure of who is the “best” dancer – we all know that the best dancer is not always guaranteed to win the competition, or even stick around week after week.
As I did last season, I have also done a “preliminary” power ranking – it’s a bit different, as we have yet to see any of the celebs perform – that is basically my “forecast” of how I think the season will play out, based on the celeb’s backgrounds and popularity. As evidenced by last season, things can change quite a bit during the course of the season – but it’s still fun to make predictions 🙂 So here’s my top six – the ones I could see lasting at least through the middle of the competition, and the ones I think will make the final:
1.) Nicole Scherzinger & Derek Hough – I think Nicole has several big advantages in this competition: she’s got a dance/performance background (from her days with the Pussycat Dolls and also her experience with the lesser-known girl group Eden’s Crush), she’s young, she’s attractive, she’s decently well-known, she isn’t really doing anything else right now (PCD is on hiatus after several members left, freeing her up to focus solely on the competition) and perhaps most important of all if you’re a sexy lady in the competition – she’s inoffensive. Anyone catch her as a judge on The Sing Off this past December? The girl is as sweet as pie – reminded me of Paula Abdul on Idol. And I can’t recall any tabloid scandals about her (other than maybe being considered the “Beyonce” of PCD and the other girls in the group being jealous of it). She’s also got the juggernaut that is Derek Hough to lead the way – his choreography is some of the most fun & memorable on the show, and the ladies LOVE him (and as we’ve pointed out many times before – you need to have the female viewers on your side to win this competition!). Their closeness in age also makes them more believable as a couple, which is a big advantage in the rumba (which is often the “make or break” dance when it comes to testing a couple’s chemistry). Unless Anna busts out some incredible choreography, or these two have a major snafu (and I’m talking a snafu of Aaron-Carter-wailing-in-the-confessional-post-rumba proportions!), I could see these two easily making it to the final, and likely winning over Evan & Anna.
2.) Evan Lysacek & Anna Trebunskaya – Some of you are probably going to strongly question me putting these two in second place (due to the winning nature of Olympians on the show, especially skaters, and also Evan’s wild popularity), but I really think this final is not going to hinge so much on the celebs as it will on their respective pros. Let’s face it: while I adore Anna (she’s my fave pro and a fellow redhead), some of the viewing audience has found her to be cold & abrasive – and viewers don’t pick up the phone for cold & abrasive pros. And her choreography, while brilliant from a technical standpoint, doesn’t quite have the same artistic “zing” and energy that Derek’s does. If Anna was a more popular pro, I could see these two having a fighting chance against Nicole & Derek (although I still think it’s going to be close, given the circumstances). But Evan will undoubtedly thrive in the competition, due mainly to his athletic background & popularity with the viewing audience – c’mon, it’s hard to hate an Olympian, especially a medalist (unless you’re that obnoxious Russian skater that lost to Evan)!
3.) Erin Andrews & Maksim Chmerkovskiy – She’s a former Florida Gators dance team member, her sister is a professional dancer, and she’s a spunky, well-liked sportscaster – but Erin’s strongest advantage this season could very well be the sympathy vote. After the mortifying peeping Tom incident back in July of ’09, this girl could have easily shunned the spotlight – but she managed to handle the situation extremely gracefully in the media and seems to have come back even stronger. While female viewers have a tendency to “backlash” against pretty girls (like many of the models), they tend rally behind successful, likeable ones – especially ones that have endured some kind of public ordeal (think Melissa Rycroft). Maks also still remains a popular pro (although probably not so much as Mark or Derek) – however, a string of early eliminations due to weak partners may have taken him off some voters’ radar in recent seasons. And let’s pray he doesn’t make poor Erin cry…he always seems to get voted off not long after that happens…anyway, Erin’s skill could take her far, but I fear that Maks choreography is going to look a bit dull up against Derek’s flashy moves and Anna’s impeccable technique.
4.) Chad Ochocinco & Cheryl Burke – I’m still having a hard time trying to figure this couple out – part of me says they could do really well, part of me says they might be a complete train wreck. But for the sake of optimism, I’m gonna go with the former – that, and Chad’s ostentatious personality and endless competitiveness. I don’t think anyone can argue with the fact that Chad is a character (anyone who admits that they are “hoping to get fined” in their next game is definitely a doozy!) and also a tremendous athlete (he’s a 6-time pro bowler). NFL players have traditionally done well in the competition (4 have made it to the finals, and none have finished worse than 7th place) due likely to sheer determination. Chad also has an edge with Cheryl, who is the winningest pro currently doing the show. However, Chad’s charisma can also come across as, well, just plain obnoxious – he wasn’t voted the #1 showboater in the sports world by ESPN for nothing. He has been known to be a little on the cocky side, and is not above trash-talking the competition…which doesn’t always sit well with the voters. I’m predicting they make it to the semifinal based solely on their skill, but will lose out in the end to more likeable celebs like Evan, Nicole, & Erin.
5.) Niecy Nash & Louis Van Amstel – If last season was any indicator, Louis tends to thrive with partners that have a bit of an attitude – viewers may have yawned watching him dance with Trista & Priscilla, but who could forget his sassy interactions with Monique & Kelly? J And let’s just say Niecy has got attitude to spare – I have a feeling these two are going to be a hoot to watch! Viewers seem to overlook weak dancing if a couple is particularly entertaining (i.e. Cloris & Corky), so even if Niecy isn’t the greatest, I don’t think she will be going home quickly. Not to say that she won’t be good – from the clips of her practicing, it’s clear the woman has rhythm, and I sincerely doubt she will struggle with “coming out of her shell” like Kelly did. I think Louis also solidified him self as a pro favorite last season, with his unending support and camaraderie with Kelly, so he may have a bigger fanbase this year. In the end, though, I think the stronger dancers will win out over the energetic-but-not-quite-as-technically-good ones, so these two better bring attitude & skill if they want to make it to the finale.
6.) Jake Pavelka & Chelsie Hightower – Not gonna lie – I definitely cringed when I heard Jake’s name announced as the 11th participant this season. I almost wonder if he was a last-minute addition when they needed to fill one more slot, and the fact that they were announcing the contestants during the Bachelor finale was just a happy coincidence (for them, not us). While Jake does have a bit of a dance background (he’s taken dance lessons, allegedly – not sure what kind), I fear that everyone that was on Team Tenley is not going to be quick to support Jake – if the tabloids covers splashed with headlines of “Villainous Vienna’s” exploits are any indicator, the voters may be hesitant to stand behind him (and his choice in women). Petty? Maybe – but look at what happened to Jason Mesnick after he jilted Melissa. The guy became a social pariah! Fans of The Bachelor are definitely passionate about their faves, which could be good for Jake if enough of “Team Vienna” is voting this season. Chelsie also has a knack of taking mediocre partners (Ty Murray, Louie Vito) and improving them enough to keep them around until at least midway through the competition. This couple is a bit of a toss-up for me – which is why they’re right in the middle. I guess time will tell whether they sink or swim…
So there’s my predictions for the top 6 – tune in tomorrow as I detail those who *gulp* may be in a bit more peril of getting sent home 🙁 But what do you guys think? Who do you think will come out on top?
Maybe I mis-read Maks’s twitter but Erin has more than one sister and they both dance as well.
Seriously? Jake and Niecy?? Wow.
I absolutely agree with your top 4, and I was thinking there is no way that Evan loses – but I’m now calling it more of a three (or four) way toss up to win between Evan, Nicole and Erin (or Chad). Why – we’ll I have all the entertainment shows on my Tivo scanning for DWTS info, in addition to DWTS keywords so I’ve seen a good bit of Evan lately. He’s a little on the stiff side – cute as HELL, and very nice, but a little stiff. Erin, on the other hand – is delightful and SO cute with Maks. And we know how I feel about Derek and Nicole. 🙂 I think Derek has the edge in choreography, but the other factors swirling around will make this extremely interesting to watch. I think any one of the four could be the “shocking” elimination going into the final – it’s not quite the walk for Evan that I once thought it was. Ultimately – I think he will win based solely on fanbase.
That said – I would have put Pam Anderson up in place of Niecy. I think she will be the surprise. I also wouldn’t put Jake as high as you have him. Sure, he has team Vienna behind him, but Team Ali and Team Tenley are probably forces to be reckoned with. Plus, he’s BORING and pretty stiff in the videos I’ve seen.
I have to say, regardless of Derek’s partner, I haven’t been this excited for a season to start in a very long time. Last couple seasons Derek and his partner were the only things keeping me watching – I think that will be very different this season and I think they have done exceptionally well casting – even as much as I don’t like Kate Gosselin. 🙂
I think Evan still has the edge over Nicole because the only ringers that have won are ones with huge fan bases. Evan is like Shawn and Kristi. There may end being better dancer than Evan like Shawn’s season but the fan base wins out. I think Erin is a terrific celeb and Maks better not screw it up. I thought Denise was bad but Debi had potential and Debi and Louis would have gone far. I blame Maks for Debi’s poor showing. She was no worse than Melissa or Joanna in my opinion. I know others will (strongly) disagree so let us leave it at agreeing to disagree. I think Niecy is okay but Shannen has a fan bases for her many tv shows and movies and I would put her in Niecy’s spot. As long as Mark does not do his usual everything including the kitchen sink choreography which will overwhelm her.
Very interesting prediction and excellent assessment
of your guess for top 6 contestants.
I think I would have to include Pam/Damian in the top 5 and Ochocinco/Cheryl in the Top 3, keeping Nicole/Derek in 1st and Evan/Anna in 2nd place. I have a feeling Pamela Anderson is going to surprise a lot of people. She has the potential of being seen and embraced as someone like Kelly or Lil Kim, that is of course, contingent upon her pro partner, his choreography and how he showcases her abilities.
Everyone I’ve talked to on the job about DWTS is excited about this season. I am definitely looking forward to S10 a very diverse cast.
I dunno, John – I think Shannen’s extreme fear of live audiences has to be considered when doing a ranking for her. Melissa Joan Hart didn’t have that fear that bad and had, arguably, just as big a tv history and she didn’t make it that far. Actually, as much as I love Debi, she was worse than Melissa and Joanna – was that Maks’ fault? I don’t think so. She had NO fanbase and she just got too nervy and jittery. Maybe she would have done better with someone more nurturing – but maybe not. Hard to say.
I do, for the most part, agree that Evan has the edge due to fanbase. Like I said, he’s a bit stiff, but the size of his fanbase compared to Nicole’s will likely compensate for that.
Agree to disagree. In my eyes, Melissa was not a great dancer and neither was Joanna. It was Derek’s choreography and ability to get Joanna to sell the dance that got her far. And his fan base because while Debi had no fan base, Joanna had none too. If Joanna was with Alec and Derek had Natalie, Joanna would have left sooner and Natalie could have won. Derek’s popular but his choreography and ability to bring the best out of his partners would have taken Natalie far. I could not vote for Debi because I thought Maks was too tough on her. It was uncomfortable to watch on t.v. Louis handled Kelly’s nerves with fun as did Derek with Jennie. Debi could move but maybe that feisty personality would have been better with Louis since he works off those personalities well. But actresses in general seem very self conscious. This might be a test for Mark to see if he can be supportive. Jennie had nerves and Derek got great dances out of her. But Mark has already shown he is not the supportive or encouraging type. I think Shannen will be fine dancing even if she is nervous. Ian was also nervous and stiff and he and Cheryl went to fourth. Shannen’s fan base should help her outlast some celebs.
Even if Evan is stiff, his fan base trumps everyone. Look at Shawn. She beat two better dancers in the finals.
i couldn’t agree more about the top 6 u’ve made, but the cast seems so amazing that i can put two or more couples in the same rank! nicole and Derek would be first then evan and anna ( like courtney said anna is tough and cold, but also evan lacks in personality he’s boriiinng to meee i don’t know whyy), the third are erin and maks, then equaly chad/cheryl and pam/Damian (i kinda like the new guy so we’ll see what he can bring 😉 ) then in fiftth niecy/ loius and Shannen/ mark! That’s the kinda cast that would make people watch the show coz it’s everyones game u can’t say defenitly whos gonna staay longer! and that is so cooool!! can’t wait til monday, then we’ll really see the REAL state of the competition! it’s gonna be FIIIRE!! 😀
This is all extremely interesting to me…based on your comments, it really sounds like it could be anyone’s game this season! And I have a feeling our differing opinions are going to make for some very enlightening power rankings this time 😉
I am actually going to stick to my guns about Nicole – I still think she has a decent chance of winning over Evan. They might be neck & neck all season (or even Evan edging her out a bit), but I have a feeling it will all come down to the freestyle – if Mya & Dmitry’s last season was any indicator, it can either seal your victory or be the final nail in your coffin. I definitely think Derek’s choreography could be the ace in the hole for he & Nicole in that battle – again, while I love Anna, I wouldn’t put money on her routines against Derek’s! And if Heidi’s fervor is representative of the general population – Derek’s fanbase could compensate for Nicole’s lack of one over Evan 🙂
I’m kinda surprised that everyone is rallying behind Pam…I won’t go into detail (I’ll save that for part II), but I think she may have a really hard time this season – not so much due to lack of dancing skill, but due to having a very difficult voting demographic. But again – I’ll explain later…
…ditto for Shannen. I don’t see her doing exceedingly well this season, again due mainly to what I’ll refer to as “demographical issues”. I promise it will all make sense in the next post! Haha.
And John, I totally echo your sentiments about Maks – he had better not screw this up, because Erin has been his best chance of making it to the final since Mel B. While I don’t always like the guy, I do think he deserves a shot at the trophy after all the dues he’s paid in the past few seasons.
As for my “questionable” ranking of Niecy & Jake…
…I feel like Jake has an advantage in still being pretty fresh in voters’ minds, since The Bachelor literally just ended. Whether he’s in their minds positively or negatively remains to be seen 😉 But I also feel like the entire state of Utah might be rallying behind Chelsie (and has been for the past 2 seasons) – LDS folks seem to be a very supportive, tight-knit group!
And Niecy also has an almost ideal platform for promoting her stint on the show – the dreaded Insider. While I sometimes would rather get a root canal than watch it, I have to admit – having one of their own do the show after Samantha Harris’ exit seems like a pretty sly move. They already seem to be heavily featuring Niecy & Louis’ practice sessions, and I doubt the coverage is going to die down once the season starts.
I think I agree with the top 6, but we’ll have to see, someone unexpected could rise to the top, you never know. Any of these six could end up being…not very good. I do have my first impression favorites of course, but usually I turn to a different star or stay on that one and get another one to add as a favorite. And John, I understand everyone’s got opinions…but saying Debi was worse than Joanna (excellent dancer imo) is like saying Mya looked like Susan Lucci dancing…it doesnt make sense. Debi was…not good…she did pretty good…but yea…wasn’t one of the top ones definitely.