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SPOILERS!! DWTS Season 10, Week 2 – The Score Card

I find this elimination very shocking, actually. Shannen and Mark leave the competition.

I guess Courtney and I have to tally up how well we did with our predictions. Neither of us sucked, but neither of us were 100% correct either. We can’t draw too many conclusions, because they don’t tell us the vote totals of everyone NOT in the bottom two. Heck, we normally can’t even be sure that the two left standing are actually the bottom two.

Heidi:
– Predicted Aiden would go, but guessed possible shocker of Chad or Shannen.
– Did NOT expect to see Pam in the “bottom 2″. Since Tom did use the words bottom two instead of “jeopardy”, I’m assuming it was a real bottom 2.

Conclusion: looking at my math numbers, Shannen is not that huge of a shocker, her number weren’t that far above those below her. Pam, on the other had, was a real surprise. I think she suffers from NOT having a big name pro by her side – although Shannen did, so….

Courtney:
– Predicted that Kate would go home – or was that wishful thinking? :-)
– Had Chad in her bottom 2 and didn’t think Shannen would go home, although Courtney did comment on bad dance order for her and Mark.
– Was absolutely correct in pegging me as a complete worrywart in regards to Nicole and Derek. :-)
– Had commented a few times that she wasn’t sure if people would vote for Pam (more in the comments than anything).

Conclusion: ?? Paging Courtney. Write me a conclusion for your guesses. :-)Alright miss Heidi, here’s my conclusion…

…I need to stick with my gut instincts from my preliminary ranking, as those would have been closer to being correct than the one I did this week! I knew deep down that Pam would probably struggle with votes, but I think I gave her the benefit of the doubt this week because she did decently well. And yes, your worrying was for naught – Derek was just fine, and will probably get a voting boost from the folks who were voting for Mark. I’m beginning to think more & more that bad dance order contributed to Shannen’s early departure…she was just on too early in the performance order for people to remember her well. I should also not underestimate the voting power of the infamous Vote for the Worst – stupid Kate doesn’t deserve to be there! I’m making a voodoo doll as we speak. ;-)

Next Week? Pam fans rally, as do Derek/Nicole fans (because Mark the bff went home) – Aiden bites the dust, finally, and Kate lives again to dance another day. Damn it. :-) Never underestimate the power of a train wreck. Make sure that voodoo doll is a good one, Courtney

March 30, 2010 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Haiti Support

UPDATE: They listed the website A Better Community after the DWTS Haiti performance. Then, that site links to Hope for Haiti Now.

Last night Tom Bergeron mentioned that Dancing with the Stars would be supporting Haiti on tonight’s Dancing with the Stars. I’m really looking forward to seeing what they do to support Haiti. I think he said something about some local Haiti dancers performing, right?

mq, also left the following comment about the Dancing with the Stars Haiti earthquake performance:

Please be sure to watch tonight. There will be a performance by Emmanuel Pierre Antoine and his partner, Liana Churilova. Emmanuel was impacted very profoundly by the earthquake in Haiti and I am sure it is going to be a very meaningful performance tonight.

I’m betting that this is going to be an extremely touching performance and really nice to watch. I’ll try and update this post with the information to support Haiti once the show is on (or if someone on the east coast has that information first, post a comment and I’ll update it).

I Written By

Better known as Charlie.

DWTS Season 10, Week 2 – By the Numbers

Oh boy, several people did not perform up to my expectations. And a couple did much better than I expected. If you want to check up on me, my last numbers discussion and my thoughts based on dance are around here somewhere. :-) Finally, one couple may be peaking too soon-I think you all know who I’m talking about. And I see Derek and Nicole got the encore dance – that makes me freak out even more.  You can compare my rankings to Courtney’s as well, if you want. :-) She who calls me paranoid.

Here’s how I think the math shakes out – keep in mind that the math for the scores is set. What I have to GUESS at, is how many votes each couple will get. To simplify the math, I kept those numbers small. You can multiply by a thousand, or ten thousand, if you want. The scores shown below are for weeks 1 and 2, combined. PLEASE check my scores – I had this weird feeling I had someone wrong last night.

Here are the Judges Scores:

Dancer/Score
Nicole /53
Evan /47
Erin /44
Pam /43
Jake /40
Niecy /39
Shannen /38
Chad /34
Aiden /34
Kate /31
Buzz /26
Total Judges Points Awarded = 429

You’ll notice some shifting in the numbers from last week. The top two remain the same, but Erin moves up into third place and Niecy moves up into fifth. Niecy moves against my prediction. Actually, Pam did better too, but she still got beat by the very charming Erin and Maks. Aiden also moved ahead of Kate, but I doubt it will do him any good at all.

Dividing the individual scores by the total points awarded gives you the following percentages:

Dancer/Percentage of Total
Nicole /12.33
Evan /10.96
Erin /10.26
Pam /10.02
Jake /9.32
Niecy /9.09
Shannen /8.86
Chad/7.93
Aiden /7.93
Kate /7.23
Buzz /6.06
Based on this, you can see that Buzz is now 6.29 % out of first place, an increase (in distance) of nearly a point from last week. Will it matter? Probably not. Remember, the percentage of total points awarded is added to the percentage of total votes cast to determine the dancers rank. Buzz needs to catch either Aiden or Kate to stay in the game? Do you think he can do it? I still think so.

Here’s my current GUESS at how I think the voting might go, in tens of thousands (or thousands, who knows?):

Dancer/Votes (in thousands)
Nicole /10 – yes, she danced great, but those 10s will cost her votes, unless the Derek and Nicole fans wisely kept the pressure on.

Evan /30 – Still think he’s the one to beat, by a landslide. Although he was bugging the crap out of me by spamming twitter (seriously, every ten minutes during the show and after) and I’m not so sure that his low key personality will hold up in the long run.

Pam /20 – She impressed the hell out of me, and the Marilyn Monroe thing was genius on Damian’s part, but what will happen when this schtick gets old? To the viewers and the judges? Can a new, fitting character be created for every dance? Or will it get worn out? Her dancing isn’t stellar. Yet.

Erin /15 – I left her at the same number – I think her relationship with Maks is great and I bet viewers will as well.

Jake /15 – He, again, didn’t totally suck and the Bachelor is still popular.

Chad /15 – Disappointing in both dancing and personality, but still up there with the rest due to the football vote. However, this won’t last forever. I think he’s got one more week to turn it around.

Niecy /15 – Again, entertaining as hell, and I bumped her this week for dancing well also. She made me eat my words because I thought she would be terrible at this style.

Shannen /15 – Okay, the dad thing is over – but still, she looked great (keep it up Mark and you might lose your rep for craptastic costuming). Mark out danced her a bit, but she gave it the old college try. Honestly, I think it’s hard for the pros to NOT out dance their partners in the Jive.

Kate /20 – Even more polarizing this week than last, if possible. She managed to make the most mild mannered pro on the show lose his temper. That’s BAD. But still I have her at a 20 in a “vote for the worst” or “I want to see more of this train wreck” sort of way. Plus, DialIdol has her at number one – but more on that later.

Aiden /10 – Did his or Edyta’s temper tantrum work for or against him? Does anyone care? I kept him in the 10 range because I’m betting on the latter.

Buzz /20 – Okay, I lowered Buzz’s vote getting ability a bit this week because that was just bad, and I’m thinking that the Astronaut thing will wear off after a good bit of bad dancing.

Now a word on DialIdol – a fine site that works fine for American Idol but NOT for DWTS. Why? Simple – it only takes into account phone voting, not online voting.  As you might guess, a LOT of voting for DWTS is done online. Also, I’m not sure if it measures it throughout the show – you can phone vote on DWTS as soon as the show starts in your time zone. And if you’ve done that, you know that you rarely get a busy signal – which is what DialIdol measures to give its rankings. While it works (supposedly) for American Idol, the system is inherently flawed when used for DWTS.  And that has been proven in seasons past. I can’t believe that entertainment shows actually cite that site as a source of rankings.

Anyway, if you do the same math as I did above for the Judges points – add up the total and then divide into each individual score to get a percentage – then add the two percentages together, you get the total following points. I’ve reshuffled so that the high scorer is at the top and the low scorer is at the bottom. Note that I left Nicole as the low vote getter to see what it would take for her to be eliminated (hence, Tom’s pronouncement of a “shocking elimination” had there been an elimination after week 1) – I went as low as an 8 for her, all others being the same, and there are still two people who were lower than her. So, Courtney, my paranoia may be for naught. :-)

Evan/27.17
Pam/20.83
Erin/18.36
Kate/18.04
Nicole/ 17.73 (*assumes she and Aiden were tied for low vote getters)
Jake/17.43
Niecy/17.2
Shannen –tie/16.97
Buzz/16.87
Chad/16.03
Aiden/13.33

Note: These are my best guesses of the voting range of the dancers – no clue as to the accuracy. Pam moved up a lot by my guess.   If anyone other than Aiden goes home, I will be surprised…but since Tom said “shocking elimination”, I’m wondering if it could have been Chad or Shannen. As much as I worried about Nicole, I don’t really believe she was low vote getter – and if she was, the next person (likely Aiden) would have to have twice as many votes as her, for her to go home. Doubtful. So – will it be shocking? Or was Tom parroting the producers in an attempt to ramp up the drama (and get people to vote more)??

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 10 – Gossip Alert for Kate Gosselin!

As usual with this sort of thing – take it for what it’s worth, a grain of salt and so on. There’s a lot of crap out there (and people with agendas) and you never know what’s true, but I thought I would put this out there for your consumption. From PopEater, a small excerpt:

Kate Gosselin Wanted Her ‘DWTS’ Partner Fired
“snip”
“Everyone involved in the show thinks Kate is impossible. We all feel very sorry that poor Tony got paired up with her. She talks to him as if he is her ninth child,” sources tell me. “At one point things got so bad that Kate demanded that the shows producers fire Tony and get her a new partner. However, everyone would rather get rid of her than Tony, who is loved by all the staff.”

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS 10, Week 2 – The Cast on ET Post-Show

I always like watching the reactions right after the show. And I have to say that after my favorite, Maks and Erin just crack me up. I hope they stick around for a while.

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)