DWTS Season 10, Week 2 – By the Numbers

Oh boy, several people did not perform up to my expectations. And a couple did much better than I expected. If you want to check up on me, my last numbers discussion and my thoughts based on dance are around here somewhere. :-) Finally, one couple may be peaking too soon-I think you all know who I’m talking about. And I see Derek and Nicole got the encore dance – that makes me freak out even more.  You can compare my rankings to Courtney’s as well, if you want. :-) She who calls me paranoid.

Here’s how I think the math shakes out – keep in mind that the math for the scores is set. What I have to GUESS at, is how many votes each couple will get. To simplify the math, I kept those numbers small. You can multiply by a thousand, or ten thousand, if you want. The scores shown below are for weeks 1 and 2, combined. PLEASE check my scores – I had this weird feeling I had someone wrong last night.

Here are the Judges Scores:

Dancer/Score
Nicole /53
Evan /47
Erin /44
Pam /43
Jake /40
Niecy /39
Shannen /38
Chad /34
Aiden /34
Kate /31
Buzz /26
Total Judges Points Awarded = 429

You’ll notice some shifting in the numbers from last week. The top two remain the same, but Erin moves up into third place and Niecy moves up into fifth. Niecy moves against my prediction. Actually, Pam did better too, but she still got beat by the very charming Erin and Maks. Aiden also moved ahead of Kate, but I doubt it will do him any good at all.

Dividing the individual scores by the total points awarded gives you the following percentages:

Dancer/Percentage of Total
Nicole /12.33
Evan /10.96
Erin /10.26
Pam /10.02
Jake /9.32
Niecy /9.09
Shannen /8.86
Chad/7.93
Aiden /7.93
Kate /7.23
Buzz /6.06
Based on this, you can see that Buzz is now 6.29 % out of first place, an increase (in distance) of nearly a point from last week. Will it matter? Probably not. Remember, the percentage of total points awarded is added to the percentage of total votes cast to determine the dancers rank. Buzz needs to catch either Aiden or Kate to stay in the game? Do you think he can do it? I still think so.

Here’s my current GUESS at how I think the voting might go, in tens of thousands (or thousands, who knows?):

Dancer/Votes (in thousands)
Nicole /10 – yes, she danced great, but those 10s will cost her votes, unless the Derek and Nicole fans wisely kept the pressure on.

Evan /30 – Still think he’s the one to beat, by a landslide. Although he was bugging the crap out of me by spamming twitter (seriously, every ten minutes during the show and after) and I’m not so sure that his low key personality will hold up in the long run.

Pam /20 – She impressed the hell out of me, and the Marilyn Monroe thing was genius on Damian’s part, but what will happen when this schtick gets old? To the viewers and the judges? Can a new, fitting character be created for every dance? Or will it get worn out? Her dancing isn’t stellar. Yet.

Erin /15 – I left her at the same number – I think her relationship with Maks is great and I bet viewers will as well.

Jake /15 – He, again, didn’t totally suck and the Bachelor is still popular.

Chad /15 – Disappointing in both dancing and personality, but still up there with the rest due to the football vote. However, this won’t last forever. I think he’s got one more week to turn it around.

Niecy /15 – Again, entertaining as hell, and I bumped her this week for dancing well also. She made me eat my words because I thought she would be terrible at this style.

Shannen /15 – Okay, the dad thing is over – but still, she looked great (keep it up Mark and you might lose your rep for craptastic costuming). Mark out danced her a bit, but she gave it the old college try. Honestly, I think it’s hard for the pros to NOT out dance their partners in the Jive.

Kate /20 – Even more polarizing this week than last, if possible. She managed to make the most mild mannered pro on the show lose his temper. That’s BAD. But still I have her at a 20 in a “vote for the worst” or “I want to see more of this train wreck” sort of way. Plus, DialIdol has her at number one – but more on that later.

Aiden /10 – Did his or Edyta’s temper tantrum work for or against him? Does anyone care? I kept him in the 10 range because I’m betting on the latter.

Buzz /20 – Okay, I lowered Buzz’s vote getting ability a bit this week because that was just bad, and I’m thinking that the Astronaut thing will wear off after a good bit of bad dancing.

Now a word on DialIdol – a fine site that works fine for American Idol but NOT for DWTS. Why? Simple – it only takes into account phone voting, not online voting.  As you might guess, a LOT of voting for DWTS is done online. Also, I’m not sure if it measures it throughout the show – you can phone vote on DWTS as soon as the show starts in your time zone. And if you’ve done that, you know that you rarely get a busy signal – which is what DialIdol measures to give its rankings. While it works (supposedly) for American Idol, the system is inherently flawed when used for DWTS.  And that has been proven in seasons past. I can’t believe that entertainment shows actually cite that site as a source of rankings.

Anyway, if you do the same math as I did above for the Judges points – add up the total and then divide into each individual score to get a percentage – then add the two percentages together, you get the total following points. I’ve reshuffled so that the high scorer is at the top and the low scorer is at the bottom. Note that I left Nicole as the low vote getter to see what it would take for her to be eliminated (hence, Tom’s pronouncement of a “shocking elimination” had there been an elimination after week 1) – I went as low as an 8 for her, all others being the same, and there are still two people who were lower than her. So, Courtney, my paranoia may be for naught. :-)

Evan/27.17
Pam/20.83
Erin/18.36
Kate/18.04
Nicole/ 17.73 (*assumes she and Aiden were tied for low vote getters)
Jake/17.43
Niecy/17.2
Shannen –tie/16.97
Buzz/16.87
Chad/16.03
Aiden/13.33

Note: These are my best guesses of the voting range of the dancers – no clue as to the accuracy. Pam moved up a lot by my guess.   If anyone other than Aiden goes home, I will be surprised…but since Tom said “shocking elimination”, I’m wondering if it could have been Chad or Shannen. As much as I worried about Nicole, I don’t really believe she was low vote getter – and if she was, the next person (likely Aiden) would have to have twice as many votes as her, for her to go home. Doubtful. So – will it be shocking? Or was Tom parroting the producers in an attempt to ramp up the drama (and get people to vote more)??