Dancing with the Stars Season 10, Week 3 – By the Numbers

Well, Courtney got a few things off her chest, now it’s MY turn. :-)

First, let me say that I really like ALL of the couples, even Kate to a certain extent. Several of the couples I even LOVE – best season so far. So, I say the following with love, not hate.

Would you all shut the hell up? Please? And I mean in the media and on twitter – maybe I get too much of both, but still. You guys are making my job here annoying, unnecessarily. You’re all good people (again, possibly except Kate) – there is no need for storyboarding, creating drama, or flapping your yaps at every single thing. Maybe I’m cynical, but it all strikes me as vote grabbing. And I’m talking about ALL of you – every last one. Some examples…

Kate? We KNOW you have 8 children. How can we not know that? It’s the only reason you’re famous – and if you REALLY didn’t like the paparazzi perhaps you should have stayed home in PA. Evan? Dude, you are getting the lion share of votes already, do you need to comment over and over about your poor, broken toes AND spam for votes (although there was marked improvement last night)? Seriously? You had a couple in the media calling you heroic. Please. Ballas danced on a torn up knee last week – that is what you DO. Crazy? Definitely. But the only hero on the show is Buzz. Nicole? We get that you have a boyfriend and that there is no way you’re involved with Derek. But you’re accomplishing TWO things here; one, you’re protesting SO much that it makes me wonder things you don’t want me to wonder about, and; two…let people have their fantasies!! That’s part of the dance – it’s supposed to be romantic and you’re taking it too far in the other direction. It’s certainly working for Erin and Maks – just look at the comments EVERYWHERE. People buy the romantic crap. I love ya, and you’re my favorite, but cut it out. And slap your partner upside the head while you’re at it – not for his choreography, that’s always stellar in my book. But for not stopping you from protesting too much – he KNOWS what it takes to win this show and he’s letting you write the book. Stop it. That brings me to Erin – girl, I love you, and I sympathize with what you’ve gone through. You’re very brave AND you have not played on anyone’s sympathies intentionally. You are awesome. But if you are NOT dating Maks by the time this is all over, I’m going to feel I was manipulated. I will feel like you guys used your chemistry for votes (similar to what Shannon and Derek were castigated for in Season 6). Jake? Shut up. I hate when people say “you’re so disrespectful” – dude, people don’t automatically get respect, it has to be earned. As much as I enjoyed your dance last night, you ain’t there – your stint on the Bachelor also didn’t help. Louis and Niecy? Both of you were all over twitter with how emotional your dance was. You were so all over it that the dance itself was a letdown once it happened. Careful with the broadcasting. Manage expectations, don’t set them. See Derek, Maks and a couple other pros for help in this area. Anyway…

The MATH.
Here are the Judges Scores:

Dancer/Score
Evan/26
Nicole/23
Erin/23
Jake/21
Niecy/21
Pam/21
Chad/20
Aiden/20
Kate/15
Buzz/13
Total Judges Points Awarded = 203

As Courtney said, the 7 paddle is highly over rated. And Len, you seriously score Nicole only a point higher than what you gave Kate? That’s taking bunched panties to a new high (or is that low?). But Derek and Nicole knew they were taking a risk – at least they were honest about it, unlike some in the past. They took their spanking well. :-) Anyway – anyone looking at these scores knows that the fans of the different dancers better have voted like hell last night because we got lots of bunching. Nicole dropping to a tie for 2nd place doesn’t accomplish much, as you’ll see below. The only question is, has Aiden gotten enough distance from Kate and Buzz to be safe?

Dividing the individual scores by the total points awarded gives you the following percentages:

Dancer/Percentage of Total
Evan/12.81
Nicole/11.33
Erin/11.33
Jake/10.34
Niecy/10.34
Pam/10.34
Chad/9.85
Aiden/9.85
Kate/7.39
Buzz/6.40

Leaving Kate and Buzz out of it for a second, there are only three points between first and 8th place. Crazy. The question is, again, do Kate and Buzz have the fans to catapult them over someone in that bunch? Very hard to say. This season is rife with characters and people with their own, bizarre fanbases. I’m tempted to think that Kate has a bigger fanbase than Nicole – the question will be if the people who DON’T like Kate will vote for someone else. That’s what will count. You see all these people hating on Kate, but if they don’t vote for someone else, then she stays.

Buzz? Well, based on this, you can see that Buzz is now 3.45 points behind Aiden. Will it matter? Probably not. Remember, the percentage of total points awarded is added to the percentage of total votes cast to determine the dancers rank. Buzz needs to catch either Aiden or Kate to stay in the game. Do you think he can do it? I STILL think possibly so.

Here’s my current GUESS at how I think the voting might go, in tens of thousands (or thousands, who knows?):

Dancer/Votes (in thousands)
Evan/30 – Far and away the ringer of the season based on fanbase and ability, I don’t see this changing unless he breaks a leg or Anna choreographs a total crap freestyle. I have to say that I thought his Quickstep started off a tad sloppy.

Nicole/20 – Danced fantastically well, although a tad off from last week, and I think she’ll hold her own in voting thanks to passionate fanbases and Len being a jerk. Why yes, that is reverse psychology.

Erin/25 – I bumped Erin up because people will vote for chemistry every time. Throw in the sympathy votes for the crap she’s had to deal with and she may rival Evan for votes (for this week, anyway).

Jake/20 – I liked this dance. Also holding his own, and unless I severely overestimate the power of the Bachelor (and his very canny ability to be constantly photographed with Vienna and healing that “issue”) he should be fine for a while. It doesn’t hurt that he doesn’t suck as a dancer. The “aw shucks” thing has got to get old after a while, though. I’m not sure if his tantrum last night hurts or helps him.

Niecy/20 – Tough call here. I agreed with Carrie Ann’s comments, but I think she will be safe because she dances well and a lot of people liked and agree with her and Louis’ expressions of their feelings last night. Problem is, there are still a lot of…conservative…people in the world who won’t appreciate it at all.

Pam/20 – I have her up with the rest of the 20-group because I think her fans probably voted like maniacs last night due to her being in the bottom two last week. She also pulled off a decent Paso, but she was too soft, not crisp enough.

Chad/20 – Judges on crack – I didn’t think this Paso was good at all, but I like Chad as a character a good bit and it was a great improvement from last week. And I imagine he’s right up there with the rest in votes. Bengals fans indeed.

Aiden/15 – Poor Aiden. Not only do you suffer from being a plain old nice guy in a room full of crazy characters, you also were too stiff with bad feet. On the bright side, the singer crapped up the song so badly your footwork may have gone unnoticed. Still not sure that’s a good thing.

Kate/20 – Puh-lease. Yes I know there are crazy people voting for her. Slight improvement from last week but still awful.

Buzz/20 – I didn’t pick on Buzz above, and I feel bad to pick on him now. Because he’s 80! And an Astronaut!! :::sigh::: My enthusiasm for those two things is waning rapidly and the patriotic stuff is now officially too much.

Anyway, if you do the same math as I did above for the Judges points – add up the total and then divide into each individual score to get a percentage – then add the two percentages together, you get the total following points.

Evan/27.09
Erin/23.23
Nicole/20.85
Jake/19.87
Niecy/19.87
Pam/19.87
Chad/19.38
Aiden/17.00
Kate/16.91
Buzz/15.93

Note: These are my best guesses of the voting range of the dancers – no clue as to the accuracy. By my math, Buzz goes home with the lowest total. I have Aiden as the low vote getter, but not so low (by 5 points) that Buzz can overtake him. IF all others are correct, but I have slightly over estimated Aiden’s votes – if he gets a 12 instead of a 15 in votes – he goes home. If I have underestimated any of the other dancers votes except Aiden and Buzz, Buzz goes home. This is a hard game, but playing with the voting percentages 6 ways to Sunday, either Buzz or Aiden go home. I’m leaning toward Aiden. If someone other than Buzz, Aiden or Kate go home, it won’t be that shocking, simply because there is so little margin for error.

But, if something wacky happens and someone else goes home, I’m going to have to seriously re-evaluate my perception of fanbases. I have this strange feeling that only Evan and Erin are truly safe. For now.