DWTS Season 10, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers

There isn’t much to say this week – except to say I was right about a lot of stuff and wrong about others. :-)

Nicole is holding back (or it’s nerves getting the better of her), Erin is now in denial mode about having a relationship with Maks, Kate STILL has 8 kids, Niecy got too emotional and Louis broadcast too much, and Evan is so perfect that he’s in danger of getting lost in the shuffle of all this DRAMA. Also becoming a possibility – my long ago prediction that Pam could be the dark horse of this competition. I see Courtney is now on her bandwagon. ;-)

And what the hell is wrong with the judges? I thought both Erin, Nicole and Niecy might all burst into tears. What’s really funny is listening to the pros who aren’t on this season (Jonathan and Alec, mainly) talk about how wack the judges are – I had this visual of one of them (I think it was Jonathan) walking away from twitter in disgust after they scored Nicole’s dance. And Alec thought they were outrageous as well (now Alec is getting serious hell on twitter for saying Nicole is the best female in 10 seasons). Virtually across the board. I keep wondering if there is some sort of method to their madness. Are they being overly harsh on some to get them sympathy votes? Being nice to Kate (who did improve) to eliminate the sympathy for her? What? Anyway…

The MATH.

Here are the Judges Scores:

Dancer/Score
Evan/52
Nicole/50
Pam/47
Chad/44
Erin/39
Jake/38
Niecy/36
Aiden/33
Kate/32
Total Judges Points Awarded = 371

Oh boy. The judges didn’t do Aiden, Niecy or Jake ANY favors with the scores they handed out. Awful lot of bunching. I’m going to go on record right now and say that I think Kate is safe again. Erin is close to that group, but I think people are voting for romance, so I’m going to call her safe too.

Dividing the individual scores by the total points awarded gives you the following percentages:

Dancer/Percentage of Total
Evan/14.02
Nicole/13.48
Pam/12.67
Chad/11.86
Erin/10.51
Jake/10.24
Niecy/9.70
Aiden/8.89
Kate/8.63

Like I said last week, the Kate haters have to VOTE for someone else – like Aiden, Jake or Niecy – in order for Kate to go home. With this point spread (or lack thereof), I think she’s safe this week. I think it’s either Aiden or Jake – with Niecy as a long shot.

I’m doing the voting portion a bit differently than I have in the past – with a nod to a poster on Television Without Pity for giving me the idea. Here’s my current GUESS at how I think the voting might go, in order of most to least votes received:

Dancer/Votes
Evan– STILL far and away the ringer of the season based on fanbase and ability, I don’t see this changing unless he breaks a leg or Anna choreographs a total crap freestyle. His Tango was much better than his quickstep, for sure.

Pam – Four way tie for votes with Nicole, Erin and Chad. Great rumba – she may take over this competition if Nicole can’t relax, Evan gets too boring, and Erin falls apart.

Nicole – Danced very well, although she seemed afraid of either Derek or the dance. Or both. The judges being mean to her actually works in her favor, though, I think. She has GOT to get over her Len thing – there are 3 judges sitting up there and an audience to please. I think she (or Derek) still has the audience, but she risks losing Bruno and Carrie-Ann with the focus on Len. She needs to listen to what Bruno said – he pretty much put it out there. Plus, she could be perfect and Len would still give her an 8.

Erin –I think Erin can still rely on the chemistry factor, but I wonder if the bloom is a little off the rose. I don’t know, really. I have to fully agree with Bruno in his comments regarding the dance – very awkward, IMO. She, like Nicole, was far too worried about all the STUFF and just didn’t let go. In any case, I’m calling her safe this week.

Chad – Look out, people, Chad is starting to get the hang of this thing. Or maybe it’s just the rumba that worked for him.

Niecy – Tough call here. I agreed with the judges comments. And I’m not so sure she’s safe because she’s playing it too safe on the dance floor. It’s getting to be crunch time and I had never heard of her before this show, so does she have a big fanbase?? No idea. I think she’s a remote possibility for the bottom 2.

Kate – I think she did indeed have a mini-breakthrough like Bruno said. But still awful. And still safe.

Jake – Attitude adjustment time for Jake – was it in time? I doubt it. Jake was in the bottom two last week, which means I over estimated the power of the Bachelor (or at least, THIS Bachelor). Question is, was it lazy fans who will pour it on this week, or do people just not like him? I think he might be in trouble.

Aiden – Poor Aiden. I think. No love from the judges. On the bright side, being the soap stud is probably helping. But I’m afraid he’s running out of time. It may be him and Jake in the bottom two tonight.

Okay, revisting the bottom four dancers in terms of judges scores, we have:
Jake/10.24
Niecy/9.70
Aiden/8.89
Kate/8.63

Kate is only 0.27 percentage points behind Aiden. What this means is, in order to stay over Aiden is that she has to get 2,700 more votes than Aiden per 1 million votes cast. That is nothing, if millions are voting – and Tom implied last week they were. So, for that reason, I think Kate will be with us for another week, at least.

What about Jake? Can Kate leapfrog above Jake leaving a bottom three of Niecy, Aiden and Jake? Kate is 1.62 % behind Jake, meaning she has to get 16, 200 more votes per 1 million votes cast to pass Jake. Sounds like a lot, but relatively speaking, it’s actually not. I think she can and will do it. Thank the housewives who relate to her.

The next question is: who is getting the votes between Aiden, Niecy and Jake? I would bet (not real money :-)) that Aiden can beat Jake at the very least. Aiden is 1.35 % behind Jake, meaning that he has to get 13,500 votes more than Jake for every 1 million votes cast. What do you think? Is it possible. Judging each guy on their own merits, I think most women are going to pick Aiden over Jake. Aiden only has to beat one person to stay in the competition.

Just for the sake of argument, let’s look at how Kate stacks up against Pam – a current judge favorite, at least, but she has been under the red light of doom. Pam is 4.04% ahead of Kate in the judges scoring, which means that Kate would have to get 40,400 votes more than Pam for every 1 million votes cast. You think she can’t? Read the comments for article like this one, where her fans spam for her.

I guess I’ve convinced myself, at least, that Jake and Aiden are still the two in trouble. But it could be Niecy because she’s not as endearing on camera as she once was, plus they gave her slow dances and a crap dance spot.