DWTS 10 Week 5 Predictions
Hola! Konnichiwa! Bonjour! Alo! I’m Marianya the newest blogger on the site. I’ve been a fan and following DWTS since Season 2. I have done some ballroom dancing myself and totally recommend it as a recreational activity for those that are fans of DWTS and would like to know how to dance… even just for fun!
In any case, Princess Heidi did an awesome write up that includes which dance each celeb/pro is doing, possible song choices, commentary, etc. What I’m attempting to do is take past scores and experiences of the pros (and in some cases past celebs that relate to a current celeb) and will attempt to predict what their scores are going to be tonight. I did not use scores from relays, or team dances. I also did not use scores of the Argentine Tango since it is a different dance from the Tango.
And now, in no particular order…
Evan Lysacek/Anna Trebunskya – Rumba
– Season 2 (w/ Jerry Rice, Week 7): 21/30
Since there is not enough information, I’m going to add include the scores of previous figure skaters:
– Season 6 (Kristi Yamaguchi/Mark Ballas, Week 5): 29/30
Prediction: 26/30
Jake Pavelka/Chelsie Hightower – ChaCha
– Season 8 (w/ Ty Murray, Week 1): 14/30
Since Chelsie has only done the ChaCha with Ty Murray, I’m going to pull data from previous reality stars.
– Season 8 (Holly Madison/Dmitry Chaplin, Week 1): 18/30
– Season 8 (Melissa Rycroft/Tony Dovolani, Week 10): 27/30
Prediction: 21/30
Chad Ochocinco/Cheryl Burke – Quickstep
– Season 2 (w/ Drew Lachey, Week 2): 27/30
– Season 3 (w/ Emmitt Smith, Week 2): 24/30
– Season 4 (w/ Ian Ziering, Week 2): 22/30
– Season 5 (w/ Wayne Newton, Week 2): 15/30
– Season 6 (w/ Cristian de la Fuente, Week 2): 20/30
– Season 7 (w/ Maurice Greene, Week 8): 24/30
– Season 8 (w/ Gilles Marini, Week 2): 27/30
Prediction: 22/30
Niecy Nash/Louis Van Amstel – Jive
– Season 2 (w/ Lisa Rinna, Week 3): 25/30
– Season 3 (w/ Monique Coleman, Week 3): 27/30
– Season 9 (w/ Kelly Osbourne, Week 8): 26/30
Prediction: 24/30
Kate Gosselin/Tony Dovolani – Foxtrot
– Season 2 (w/ Stacy Keibler, Week 4): 26/30
– Season 3 (w/ Sara Evans, Week 1): 15/30
– Season 4 (w/ Leeza Gibbons, Week 1): 15/30
– Season 5 (w/ Jane Seymour, Week 1): 24/30
– Season 6 (w/ Marissa Jaret Winokur, Week 8): 25/30
– Season 8 (w/ Melissa Rycroft, Week 3): 27/30
Prediction: 17/30
Nicole Sherzinger/Derek Hough – Tango
– Season 5 (w/ Jennie Garth, Week 3): 26/30
– Season 6 (w/ Shannon Elizabeth, Week 7): 27/30
– Season 7 (w/ Brooke Burke, Week 8): 28/30
Prediction: 26/30
Erin Andrews/Maksim Chmerkovskiy – Jive
– Season 3 (w/ Willa Ford, Week 3): 22/30
– Season 4 (w/ Laila Ali, Week 8): 26/30
– Season 5 (w/ Mel B, Week 3): 27/30
Prediction: 22/30
Pamela Anderson/Damian Whitewood – Quickstep
– Season 1 (Kelly Monaco/Alec Mazo, Dance Off): 24/30
– Season 8 (Holly Madison/Dmitry Chaplin, Week 2): 18/30
I’m comparing with the only data that would be relevant, which is via the celeb… Since this is later in the season, and Pamela is slowly doing better… and can act…
Prediction: 22/30
So those are my predictions for the night… What are your predictions? 😀
Data Disclaimer: This was the best data I could find. Feel free to correct anything I might have gotten wrong so I can update the post.
Welcome Marianya!! This is some interesting data. Hard to predict scores from the past since the past Stars have different abilities, but it’s interesting to see how the pros have done with a certain dance.
Welcome aboard, Marianya! Nice to have a fellow ballroom dancer on here 😉
Very interesting (and thorough!) research you’ve done here. I do notice a trend with certain pros and certain dances that they excel/struggle with (I still think Chelsie’s jives are just kinda generic) and I think it will definitely be exciting to see how things pan out. I actually think Evan might struggle with the rumba this week, since he’s still having a bit of a hard time with his connection to Anna – I think he’ll get a 24 at best. I could also see Jake doing better than Chad this week – if his foxtrot was any indicator, Chad does not do well with the smooth dances.
The joker in the deck to predictions Marianya is inconsistent judging. Celebrities like Chad, Nicole, Erin, and Niecy have been judged harshly this season while Kate, Pam, Jake, and Evan have their flaws overlooked. I say if you’re going to be tough on some, be tough on all. Or if you’re going to overlook unstylish, technically flawed performances in some, then everyone should get the same benefit. Consistent judging has not been a hallmark of the judges this season at all! Just look at Erin and Nicole’s critiques and lowered scores for arms and ankles last week that have nothing to do with the technical quality of their dances, and Kate gets 6’s for sleepwalking through a performance. C’mon guys!
#Paula – I actually take a different approach as to how the judges judge each celeb. I think part of the reason that some celebs are judged harshly and others not is simply because the judges have a particular mindset as to how much they expect from each celeb.
Taking a look at pass seasons, they score high to those that they feel need a little encourgement to do better and feel better about themselves… and judge harsher to those that they feel have fallen short on expectations. It’s kind of the same thing when a teacher grades a written assignment. If they expect more out of you they’ll judge harshly, if they feel you need encouragement they’ll be a little more lenient. Not the best way of doing things, but it’s human nature after all.
#Courtney: Yay! We should get together and conquer the dancing world! 😛 Anyway, I scored evan reasonably high because I predict that his technique would carry him through. As long as he caresses the floor with his dance shoes like he glides across the ice on his skates it would go a long way. Though I’ll admit, Kristi has him at an advantage because she’s done pairs skating and he’s only been a singles skater. But I digress.
#John: All predictions are a crap shoot, but it’s fun to make.
Welcome Marianya! Be prepared – I’ll be adding you to the scoreboard post that I do on late tuesdays or wednesday mornings, so we can see how you did. 🙂 If you want to include your thoughts on the week you can either send them to me, put them in the comments like Courtney does and I’ll add them to the post, or you can edit my post. At least, I think you can do that – I know I fixed someone else’s formatting the other day.
I agree with Paula – the judges are wacky every season, but they seem weirder this year. A dancer like Kate would have gotten ripped much worse in previous seasons, whereas the Erin’s and the Niecy’s would have gotten more favorable commentary. I think that Nicole’s judging has been in line with Mya’s, but I’m not sure why Evan is getting a pass when I don’t think Kristi did in her season.
I agree with Courtney on Evan this week, although because they are giving him a pass, you might be right. I also think Jake will do better than Chad – his rehearsal video looks surprisingly good and he’s certainly not afraid to get out there and do it. I think his cha cha will beat Chad’s Quickstep, based on which dance they’re dancing alone. But who knows? I think Nicole and Niecy got stuck with crap songs – I swear if one judge comments on song not being right for the dance I will kill someone. 🙂
I don’t think Chelsie’s Jives are generic. I think she tailors the choreography of the dances to fit the celebrity. She is (IMO) one of, if not the best professional for hiding the flaws of the celeb. Even Conrad Green sung praises of her! (It’s an article on Chelsie on the web somewhere, you could easily find it. I was just looking on the web to find out the results of one of the shows and I just happened to stumble on it.)
If she can turn Ty into a (semi) dancer, that girl can do anything.
And I actually like her jives. Maybe not as interesting in the choreo department as Derek (of course), but better than a lot of other pros.
Heidi – LOL, I don’t know how the scoreboard is going to work since my predictions are without seeing the dances while you and Courtney put your elimination predictions in… but sure add them in… let’s see how far off the mark I am =P Come to think of it, I haven’t seen rehearsal footage anywhere either… hmmm… You just gave me a good idea Heidi (evil woman that you are).
Niecy is going home this week, she was in the bottom two last week, she has a hard dance and she is the first one to dance tonight.
Man, that stinks for Niecy. Evan is dancing last so I am guessing that rumba is good.
Niecey was not in the bottom two. Tom stated that those were not necessarily the bottom two. He only says that when they are just placing people there for dramatic effect. I think there are more than a few who are in jeopardy. Erin, Nicole, Niecey, and Pam could be gone. I actually think Evan, Chad, and Kate are probably getting the majority of the fan vote and will definitely be around for another week.
There is rehearsal footage for Derek and Nicole now up on PureDerekHough, and Jake and Chelsie have some in one of the videos I posted the other day. 🙂 Those two are the only ones I’ve seen. So far.
I dunno Jennifer – Chad is going second and that’s the worst spot. Evan, of course, got the pimp spot.
Or it’s not good, John – hard to say. They often put people last that might not be the best but who need the votes. That’s why they call it the pimp spot.
this is evan first time on the pimp spot before tonight he always went in the first half of the show, going first once and second in the ather week, it was about time that he would get the pimp spot since Kate and Pamela always go by the second half of the show and Nicole alrady got the pimp spot once, i think next week is time for Erin get the pimp spot.
not that he need the pimp spot anyway but i think is nece that they chance things around like sending Kate first or second someday or even Pamela, Jake is always stuck in the first half of the show too( like Niecy)
not that he need the pimp spot anyway but i think is nice that they chance things around like sending Kate first or second someday .or even Pamela, Jake is always stuck in the first half of the show too( like Niecy)
Maaaaaan. I knew I’d be off… but this is ridiculous. 😛
you got erin right, and Pamela for just one point
A small glimmer of hope: I have one friend who has been voting for Kate “because she’s such a trainwreck” but after tonight’s opening package and dance, she said that she’s not doing it anymore. I’m also watching some comments on the official DWTS Facebook page and Twitter and notice quite a few people having the same comments.
It might not mean much, but maybe this will be the week that the fairweather fans stop voting for her. We can only hope.
I was upset about the scores again tonight. I thought Evans dance was every bit as good as Nicoles….yet didn’t get her scores. I thought his dance was more interesting in general too, maybe because it was the Rumba. I’m gonna tell you right now i’m a fan of Niecy and i vote for her BUT she or Kate will be going home. I adored Erin and Jakes jive! Erin will be the contender for Nicole and Evan in the end. Once she gets a few things down, her legs and her athletic ability will be hard to beat…much less her personality lol. I agree that Jake’s dance was so so BUT he worked really hard and did well…his scores were to high though and Erins were to low. I’ve noticed Erin gets lower scores then some of the others. BTW Bruno is not objective when it comes to Pam, he gives her a point or two higher then he should EVERY week. Basically Nicole and Pam are getting higher scores then on a level playing field. Granted most of Pams higher scores are coming from Bruno…I think my girl Niecy is going home because some people are voting for Kate. I dont hate the woman but there is no way she shouldn’t go home next week. OMG don’t get me started on Chad, he peaked last week and we’ll never see that again. If Niecy goes i’ll have to vote for someone else….I always go for the ones Len can’t stand. Erin anyone lol?
Wow, i just read that someone thinks Chad is getting top 3 votes? Just wondering the logic behind that one….Evan? Yeah….Kate obviously but Chad? Football players don’t watch this show and if anything would be voting for Erin. Female DWTS fans don’t normally go for big, loud, football stars that beg for a dance partners attention and complain when they don’t get it. Maybe i’m not big on him but i don’t think he has the cult following Kate enjoys…much less anything else. Just wondering because that completely struck me as odd…maybe i’m not getting something.
WHAT DID CARRIE ANN INABA SAY WHEN SHE BENT HER HEAD, EXTENDED HER ARMS, AND WIGGLED HER FINGERS AT DEREK AND NICOLE AFTER THEIR TANGO??
Pat – Carrie Ann Inaba says… “SUPERSTAR”: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB_Mnr2anp0