Dancing with the Stars Season 10, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers

First things first – everyone PLEASE give to the Red Cross, if you are able. Nashville has been hit by a 1000 year flood. Hundreds (thousands?) of homes are under water, downtown landmarks are taking on water – not only will homeowners be impacted for weeks or months to come, but Nashville’s tourism industry has taken a serious hit. Locales never before flooded are under water – like the Country Music Hall of Fame, historic Opryland Hotel and the Grand Ole Opry. One of our two water plants are under water, so it’s conservation time – pray the water doesn’t reach the other plant. It’s devastating. If you want to read about it, Channels 2, 4 and 5 out of Nashville all have websites which document a lot of the damage. It’s been a very sad few days here in Nashville.

Random Musings…

The Storyboarding was unbelievable last night. Erin’s best dance?? I see they are on crack once again!! Erin was off time from Maks, they broke hold, there were gimmicks. If anyone else had danced that dance (hello, Nicole) they would have been skewered. Certainly not worthy of a 27 – too sloppy, especially when compared to Nicole’s Waltz or Evan’s Tango.

Then Chad – who I think actually did better than Erin – gets a 9 from Len? Boy, are they desperate to make this into a horserace or what? Then Nicole does a near perfect dance so she should get 10’s right, since they overscored everyone else so far? HELL NO. I suppose they will give Niecy a 10? No, but they give her a point better than Pam which is crap. But, in hindsight, how it shakes out after the group dances it’s almost like they knew what the teams would get. Hmmm…say it ain’t so! I will say that I thought Evan did a great job and deserved a 30. The only reason it pisses me off is because Len should have given Nicole a ten long before now – like for her perfect Tango. But part of the reason Evan gets a 30 is so that he can have an “amazing comeback!!!!” That said, Evan had the most crowd pleasing type of dance of the night AND the dance best suited to his abilities – the only Argentine Tango of the night. Going up against waltzes and mediocre quicksteps, of course he will shine.

Carrie Ann saying that Nicole is the best dancer ever on the show is like the kiss of death – or Carrie knows she’s not getting the votes so she thought she’d get that out there just in case.

All these other sites or people that act surprised that Evan is now up there with Nicole – wake up, people. He’s always been up there with Nicole and he’s always been destined to win because of his own talent and because of his fanbase. It amazes me that there are still people who honestly (or not so honestly) think the best dancer (Nicole) wins. Not true – the biggest fanbase wins and that is still Evan (probably). The only reason Evan was down at 21 last week was because of more judge storyboarding. His dance was worth more than a 21, easily.

The Math:

After the individual dances, the celebrities were ranked in this order:
Evan/30
Nicole /27
Erin/27
Chad/25
Niecy/25
Pam/24

Courtney and I should post a transcript of our conversation (via Twitter) during the show because I am a great prognosticator (when it comes to the judges, anyway) and she’s not too shabby herself. :-) It was SO easy to predict what the judges were going to do. I even said, “If Team Madonna gets a 24, that will put Evan/Nicole in a tie for first place” – which is exactly what they want and exactly what happened. It also knocked Erin/Maks down a couple pegs and Niecy into last place where they want her.

The Team Dance Scores
Team Gaga/27
Team Madonna/24

Add the two scores together for each celeb, then add all the scores together to get the total judges points awarded (311). Then you divide a celebs score by the total points awarded to get their judges percentage:
Evan/17.36
Nicole/17.36
Chad/16.72
Pam/16.4
Erin/16.4
Niecy/15.76

It’s weeks like this where the results show can be very interesting, where someone popular could go home if their fans assume they are safe. There is just a tiny difference between Evan/Nicole and Niecy – not many more votes for Nicole to go home instead of one of the lower scorers. Or Erin to get bumped. Do I think that will happen this week? Not really, but you never know. How did the fans of those already booted vote? Did they go for Niecy? Pam? If they do in large numbers –well, no one is safe.

For Niecy to stay and for someone else to go, she needs to get approximately 6,450 votes more than either Pam or Erin per 1 million votes cast. That is not very many, depending on how many people actually vote. If only 500k vote every week, that number shrinks to 3,225. I will say right now that I don’t think Erin is going anywhere. Pam on the other hand, is in danger. This is a toss-up, really, because neither woman danced particularly well last night. But where are Jake’s fans, Aiden’s fans and the others likely to put their votes (if they still vote)?? Probably NOT to Pam.

What about the potential for a “shocking” (not really) elimination? Evan and Nicole are tied for first place – what would it take for either one of them to be eliminated? Well, ALL the people below them would have to get more votes, obviously, which adds up to:

Niecy – 16,100 votes per 1 million
Pam – 9,700 votes per 1 million
Erin – 9,700 votes per 1 million
Chad – 6,430 votes per 1 million

So, if 1 million people vote, the above numbers represent how many MORE votes each contestant has to get than either Nicole or Evan for Nicole or Evan to be eliminated. Now, do you think this is possible? Well, I refuse to believe that Evan won’t win, but I think it could happen to Nicole. Probably not this week, but next week? Nicole/Derek fans better be stepping it up.

I’m sad to say that I think Pam will be leaving us tonight and that Niecy lives to dance another day. Sorry Courtney. But I would not be surprised if anyone left (other than Evan), with the scores as tight as they are.