Dancing with the Stars Season 10, Week 8 – By the Numbers

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Random Musings…

Not too much to complain about tonight, other than Chad’s score for his Jive. He rather got a pass on that one, IMO.  I’m glad Len finally gave Nicole her due – after that absolutely joyful and lovely fox trot (which, upon rewatching, was even better than the Paso) earned only a 9 from him, and after he gave Erin a 10, I was prepared for another night of faux outrage coming from him. But what he did was give Nicole his only standing ovation of the season thus far. I’ll take it. :-)  I don’t begrudge Erin her 10 – that was a fantastic dance – but Nicole should have gotten one from him sooner. :::cough::: Tango :::cough:::

The Math:

After combining the individual dances, the celebrities were ranked in this order:

Nicole /59

Evan/53

Erin/53

Chad/45

Niecy/43

I really have nothing to add. That pretty much sums it up for me.  I think Chad is two points too high.

Add all the scores together to get the total judges points awarded (253). Then you divide the celebs score by the total points awarded to get their judges percentage:

Nicole/23.32

Evan/20.95

Erin/20.95

Chad/17.79

Niecy/17.00

Well, they made a very clear break between the top three and the two who should be the in the bottom. As a result, Nicole SHOULD be safe, but you just never know. Sometimes fans assume someone will be safe and they don’t vote. But I’m going to cautiously say that she is safe. If she is “in jeopardy” I’m going to call bullshit on it.

As for Erin and Evan, who are tied for second place, I have to agree with Courtney. They are likely safe, but I would not be surprised to see the producers pull a faux “in jeopardy” with one of them just to pump up the drama. For that matter, they could try that with Nicole, too, but I would be surprised. And here’s why…

For Niecy to stay and Chad to go, she needs to get approximately 7,950 votes more than him per 1 million votes cast. That’s not a lot. It’s very doable.  But, for Niecy to beat both Chad, Erin and Evan – for her to stay and for two of those three to REALLY be in the bottom 2, she also needs to get about 39,500 more votes than Erin and Evan (each) per 1 million votes cast. How likely is that? Well, she can get past Chad with 7,950 votes and MAYBE either Erin or Evan with 39,500 votes – but I find it highly unlikely that she will do that much better than Evan (the main ringer) or Erin (the sympathy votes thanks to Liz Hasselbeck).  But I could be wrong.

What are the odds that Nicole would go home? Well, thanks to better judging, not that great. If my math is correct, all of the following has to happen:

Niecy has to get 63,300 more votes per 1 million cast

Erin AND Evan have to get 23,800 more votes per 1 million cast

Chad has to get 55,400 more votes per 1 million cast

This is fairly unlikely.  I’m calling Niecy going home, with Chad as a possibility.  Mainly, because the judging seemed legit and I don’t think fans will be outraged by any of it. I will not be surprised to see some faux “in jeopardy” action with either Nicole or Evan.  I would be well and truly shocked if Erin were to make another bottom two appearance – she had a great first dance, and the rumba wasn’t horrible (just not as good as I was expecting), plus her fans have to be scared so they’re voting like crazy AND she gets the Hasselbeck sympathy vote for this week. In fact, I bet they call her safe first BECAUSE she was in the bottom two last week. Better yet, they have a do over – call Nicole and Erin to the front and call them both safe and everyone else in jeopardy. That would throw a scare into the Evan fans and create a little DRAMA.

I guess we’ll see in just a few hours!!