DWTS Season 10, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers

Random Musings

I could be wrong, but it looks like Maks used nearly the same choreo for the V. Waltz as when he choreographed one on tour when Derek was dancing with Edyta and Aliona. I’ve only watched Derek do that dance 500 times – it seemed pretty familiar. It’s still very pretty. And why does Maks insist on having so much filler in his dances? That part at the end where they sit down took forever. I hate that split skirt thing – culottes?

Besides all that, Erin’s waltz was a bit sticky and Erin knew it. You could see it on her face. It reminded me of one of Joanna’s dances last season where it seemed like her feet were a bit stuck to the floor. I think she was a tad overscored on that one – only by a point or so. That said…

No one was more overscored than Chad. Overhyped, IMO. And keep trying to sell the “no experience” thing. Yeah, you don’t have any, but your sales pitch was so…obvious. Tacky. And Cheryl’s not exactly been hurting for great partners. At the end of the first round it appeared that the judges wussed out just like I expected.

I love how Len puts it all out there saying that all three of the others (besides Chad) have some dance experience. That said, Cheryl’s comment about that Chad being what the competition was about was curious. Really, Cheryl? If that’s what the competition is about then why do the producers hire people like Nicole, Evan and Erin?? Or, for that matter, DREW LACHEY. ;-)

Nicole, please don’t choke Derek while his neck is hurt. Derek, please see someone about your neck – it gets hurt every season at this time ever since you danced with Shannon. And Derek? I love a guy who breaks the cardinal rule of “no touching Nicole’s bunda” right in front of the guy who made the rule. :-) While I loved Derek and Nicole’s dances, I think they suffered a bit in comparison to the fantastic dances they did last week – not the quality of dancing, as much as the excitement factor – “Will Derek be able to choreograph a 50′s Paso??!!!” Which, incidentally, is what worries me about a freestyle if they make it through. Derek sets his own bar pretty high.

Erin’s paso was only okay to me, but it could have been the crap song. I agree with Len for a change – didn’t feel like a paso. But…it was a crap song. Much better costume for this dance – hot even – much better than the gawdawful split skirt/culottes or whatever the hell it was during the VW. Nice try capitalizing off a previous score of 6 – threatened by Chad and his growth arc? LOL. And Maks? :::eyeroll:::

Oh Chad. I like you, I really do. But they finally score him appropriately on his second dance.

Evan and Anna? LOVED the Paso, although I didn’t see the “innovation” that Bruno did – he’s a skater, the man spins for a living. Loved the costumes – gorgeous. Loved the first dance too, but right at this moment I can’t remember it – which could be a problem, I suppose, for Evan.

Okay, I have to say, as much as I currently really dislike Maks, if anyone other than Chad goes home I will be pissed off. Erin deserves to be there more than Chad – and if Nicole or Evan go home? This show is dead to me. :-) Okay, not really. Derek has a mirror ball trophy – I would not mind if Anna got one.

The Math

After all the dancing was done, and the judges waffled between wussing out and scoring appropriately, here’s how the competition stacked up:

Dancer/Total Score
Nicole/59
Evan/59
Erin/56
Chad/52

Seems like a nice, 7 point difference, right? Um, no. Not really. :-) When you add up the total points awarded and divide into the individual dancer’s total score, their percentages are as follows:
Nicole/26.11
Evan/26.11
Erin/24.78
Chad/23.01

I think they’re in the proper order in terms of dancing, but frankly, there isn’t enough of a spread between Chad and Erin. Or Chad and Evan/Nicole, for that matter. Anyway, we’re really at the point of the competition where the dancing has much less impact. People have probably, for the most part, made up their minds and a lot more plays into the voting than simple dancing. All bets are off when we get to the Freestyle though.

What would it take for Chad to stay and Erin to go home?? Well, Chad has to get approximately 13,275 more votes than Erin per 1 million votes cast. Not a whole lot, in the grand scheme of things. There is only 1.33 percent difference between them in judges scores.

What would it take for Evan or Nicole to go home? Chad would have to get about 31k more votes than one of them, and Erin would ALSO have to get 13,275 more votes than that same person. Do you see Erin and Chad getting a combined total of 44k more votes per one million votes cast than either Evan or Nicole?? I don’t really see it, but I don’t think anything can be ruled out.

So, who’s it going to be? Well, Dial Idol says Erin/Maks to go home, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say, AGAIN, that Dial Idol is crap and that Chad’s going to go home. That’s what I hope happens, anyway.