Dancing with the Stars, The Finale – Who’s Dancing What?

I can’t believe we’re at the finale already!  And Thank God, because I’m tired. :-)  Of course the DWTS Season 11 rumors will start up in earnest on Wednesday, so I won’t get too much of a break.  Anyway, finding all three dances is going to be a bit challenging – I have to thank Anna Trebunskaya for just putting it all out there for me on twitter.  And I’d like to smack Derek Hough for being so uncommunicative at times (and, well, I think giving him a little smack on the behind would be kinda fun :-) ).

Here’s how I understand it goes – on Monday night they dance their judge’s choice dance, which is a dance the judges feel the didn’t excel at the first time around, and the freestyle. Then we vote. Then on Tuesday, all three dance their choice of dance to repeat. Interestingly, all three couples choose Argentine Tango – and if I remember correctly, all three had very different ones. Then Third Place is announced. Then the final two dance again – and I’m not sure how this dance was picked, but Maks uses the words “dance off”.

Evan/Anna
Monday: Viennese Waltz, Freestyle
Tuesday: Argentine Tango, Quickstep for Final 2

I keep wavering on this. A large part of me says that there is no way Evan is going to lose this. Another part of me says that a disaster freestyle could open it up for Nicole. And still another part of me says that the Derek/Nicole team may have more passionate fans than an Evan/Anna combo. The other three times Olympians won this, it was with a Ballas or a Hough – arguably the most popular pros. So, is it ONLY the Olympic thing going on? Or is it the combo of a Hough or Ballas with an Olympian?? For Kristi? She would have won with anyone. The other two? Tough call. And one of the chicks on the Insider pointed out that NONE of the other Olympians that won the show had a Nicole to deal with.

Nicole/Derek
Monday: Rumba, Freestyle
Tuesday: Argentine Tango, ??

I have a feeling that Nicole has gotten a hold of her nerves and that the rumba is going to be a vast improvement over the last one, which wasn’t actually “bad” to begin with. She can conquer it. Freestyle? Well, Derek is the king of creative choreography out of this bunch, but the boy is saying he’s fried. Plus, he’s set their bar so high that anything other than phenomenal (even if the other two have poor showings) will be a disappointment to some. No pressure, Derek. :-) But why am I talking about dancing like it matters?? :-) If Derek drops Nicole on her head their fans will just stay up even longer voting! Like I’ve said before, I think most people have already decided who they are voting for – and it will probably come down to Nicole versus Evan. Maybe. :-)

Erin/Maks
Monday: Samba, Freestyle
Tuesday: Argentine Tango, V. Waltz for final 2 (??)

I dunno, I think the Argentine Tango was great, but stacked up against the other two AFTER voting has already happened? I’ll have to go watch all three dances again, but my sense was that after that initial leap, Erin’s was not as difficult, when compared to Nicole and Evan. (ETA: I went back and watched it again, and it was much simpler routine than Nicole’s) And ONLY the judges have a say here. They’re going to compare the footwork of all three and the “wow” factor of that jump has probably already worn off for them. Direct, head to head comparison may not be in their favor, particularly if they aren’t going first. This might have been a strategic error. Samba? Kinda worried about that one too, but we’ll see. Geez, there I go again, talking about the dancing like it matters. :-) Anyway, Erin has a bit of a leg up on rehearsal time this week – she’s the only one of the three that hasn’t had to travel for work.

The scoring is going to go one of two ways, I think – everyone gets essentially the same score. By “essentially” I mean no more than one point, maybe two between them. OR, they are going to underscore Erin because they think she is third place – unless of course she under performs then they won’t have to worry about it. This is on Monday. On Tuesday, after the first dance, the judges will essentially rank them based on who they think deserves to win – I predict Nicole/Evan tied at 30, with Erin getting a 28 or 29. I think Evan and Nicole will head to final two and then Evan will likely win (come on, Derek/Nicole fans, prove me wrong!!). Don’t confuse the producers having a favorite with the judges having opinions – I don’t think the producers care one way or the other who wins, but I’m pretty darn sure the judges do, and it will show in how they score the couples. That said – all three couples are doing well, so maybe they don’t care either! But I bet they have it narrowed to Nicole or Evan too. :-)