DWTS Season 10, THE FINALE – Dancing by the numbers

Random Musings

Oh dear, just as I was afraid – too many high expectations which lead to disappointment on many fronts. I personally wasn’t too disappointed, mainly because my boy Derek retains his standing as King of Choreography, win or lose. ;-)

At the risk of sounding biased – and acknowledging that I said in advance this would happen so I shouldn’t be surprised – the underscoring of both Nicole and Evan (and the extreme overscoring of Erin) was ridiculous. There is no way in hell that Erin deserved a 29 for her Samba, while Evan and Nicole both get lower scores. Maks has this tendency to waste too much time at the beginning and ending of the dances and neither dance was particularly “clean”. Nicole’s rumba was amazing – the core strength at the end when she wraps herself around Derek deserved a 10 on all on its own (and I wonder how they discovered that move ;-) ) – and Carrie Ann’s lift rule is ridiculous at that point in the dance. Pretty sure she let Louis and Maks BOTH get away with something similar last season, in addition to letting Mark get away with it at least twice, once this season. I believe her words were “it was at the end and it fit so beautifully” when he did it with Shawn. I don’t have a problem with the rule in general – but they don’t actually apply that one evenly. No wonder Derek was up in arms. That said – Maks should take a cue from Derek. Protest, then apologize and take responsibility. Very mature, Derek. Or canny. Or both. :-)

I was tempted to save this comment for the Cheesecake awards, but I can’t wait – did you all see the look on Len’s face while Carrie Ann was talking about lifts?? LOL – it was freakin’ hilarious. He was looking at her like she had three heads. Of course, Len was on crack too, but I was glad to see he agreed that the dance was over when the lift happened and said so. His face was priceless though.

LOL – just saw Maks claim on Twitter that you know you’ve been a part of something special when you’re part of the most talked about Freestyle of the season. Um, Maks, you do realize that it’s not all GOOD, right?? LOL – is this like the Supreme Court Justice thing?

Freestyles? Derek and Nicole came out on top –but I have to say that, while I didn’t care overly much for Evan’s, a 24 was ridiculously low. The judges are trying to make this into a horse race and I predict that by the end of dance three it will be a three way tie. Ridiculous. Who are they trying to kid, here? Are they consciously storyboarding the finale or is it an unconscious thing? Whatever, it worked – lots of media asking the question “Can Erin Win?” They got what they wanted, but at their own expense (again). I saw a comment on Twitter that Erin technically works for ABC as an ESPN Reporter – true? I also saw a reference to Derek’s freestyle choreography being “ripped off” Mark’s – I suggest these people go back and watch Mark’s again both with Kristi and Shawn (like the cross promo, John? :-) ). Note where Mark uses a Derek/Julianne move at the beginning of his dance with Shawn. The only similarities are Derek’s pants and the energy level. Kristy does hip hop/mambo routine, while Shawn does Jaberwockies/gymnastics, while Nicole does a range of quickstep/jive/lindy hop/salsa.

You know, I say these things every season and yet I continue to be surprised and annoyed by it. I must be a dork. :-) I also, every season, try to figure out if the Judges know the vote tally going into the finale or if that is kept secret from them. It would explain a lot. Imagine this headline “Lowest Scored Dancer Going into the Final Night WINS” – meaning Evan. Huge press, the media idiots completely buying into the storyline. Even better “The Two BEST Dancers LOSE DWTS!!!” – more huge headlines and a smidge of credibility, erasing the stain of “ringer” and “Olympians always win”. Since I consider the second one fairly unlikely, I almost expect to see Evan scored harshly again tonight, so they get their big story when he wins. Only thing is, you can’t really know how the votes are going. Plus, they would have to be extraordinarily mean to overcome the relatively minor difference in scores from last night.

The Math

It’s almost pointless to actually do that math, seeing as how the scores are so close and will change before they announce third place and the winner. But, anyway:

Dancer/Total Score
Nicole/55
Erin/55
Evan/52

When you add up the total points awarded and divide into the individual dancers total score, their percentages are as follows:
Nicole/33.95
Erin/33.95
Evan/32.10

If there were no other dances to be scored, this would mean that Evan only needs 18,501 more votes than both Erin and Nicole per 1 million votes cast in order to win. Piece. Of. Cake. Of course, there’s a rub. Evan and Erin both have celebrities pimping votes for them. Nicole is not as well placed as those two. But do you vote for whoever your favorite celeb tells you to vote for? I sure hope most people don’t – that’s so sheep-y. :-) On the other hand, all three fan groups were voting maniacs last night. Judging by my tweetdeck only (and this is not the least bit scientific, only annecdotal), Nicole and Erin have the edge in power voters. Thanks to crazy ass scoring by the judges, this could turn into a horse race – but I still think it’s a race between Evan and Nicole. I could be wrong. Dial Idol has Erin in last place and they are calling her third – but you know that I don’t think that site works for DWTS. They said she was going home last week. Still, two weeks in a row in last place – a certain degree of repetition in even the most flawed polling has to make one wonder.

But that’s all that – there IS still one more dance before third place is decided. All three dancers chose Argentine Tango, AND if they do it like they’ve done it in some years past, they completely reverse the dance order. If they do that, Nicole will be first and Erin will be last, with Evan still in the middle. I don’t think this benefits Erin – if they actually judge the dances side by side, Erin’s has the lowest degree of difficulty. If all the dances are good, with no obvious flaws, and Erin scores even with the other two, I call foul. But that’s probably what they will do. :-)

So, here’s my guess. I predict that the last dance will either be scored such that there is a three way tie OR scored such that nothing changes in terms of difference between the dancers. I’m going to stick with my original prediction of Evan as the winner with Nicole a close second and Erin in third place. I hope I’m wrong – I think Nicole deserves the mirrorball.

What do you guys think? Do you think they (the judges) know that that 3 points ain’t no big thing for an Olympian and know they can score him lower and get a good story? Or do you think they are really punishing him for a poor dance? Are they storyboarding? Or wussing out?