Okay, so all this discussion of who’s going to go first, ringers, who’s going to win and everything else, I’ve decided to go out on a limb once again and make a prediction. I normally SUCK at this – mainly because I never believe that who I want to win, will actually win. Ask Courtney – she will tell you that I never predicted that Nicole would actually win. I don’t think I even predicted it when she was several points up on Evan.
Now, granted, it’s really hard to make a prediction before we’ve even seen anyone dance – people you think are going to be good (and whose pro claims the ARE good) sometimes just aren’t. Plus, you can over estimate, or underestimate, someone’s fanbase. It’s hard – but I’m going to give it a try. Below I’ve listed the pairing and my rationale of why they’ll be eliminated, starting with the first to leave.
12th Place – Kyle Massey/Lacey Schwimmer
Sorry, Kyle. You’re a young guy with a fanbase that likely doesn’t vote AND you’re also the only person in this cast that had most people going “Who???”
11th Place – Mike Sorrentino/Karina Smirnoff
The Situation, as he is known in MTV circles, will have a much abbreviated rehearsal time compared to everyone else and, like Kyle, I wonder if the voting audience will know who he is. Unless he kills it and turns out to be totally charming as opposed to annoying, he’ll be an early exit. He does have a huge following though, so maybe they’ll turn out and vote.
10th Place – Bristol Palin/Mark Ballas
I think Bristol will stick as longer than the two lesser know people, but I don’t think she’s going to be a great dancer and the Alaska vote can only carry you so far. I’m really not sure, though – if she’s even a little bit good and a sympathetic character, she could stick around to the detriment of better dancers.
9th Place – Margaret Cho/Louis Van Amstel
Boy, this is tough. Margaret is only here because everyone left is either a pop culture icon or a sports hero AND pop culture icon.
The top 8 – I confess, I moved them around so many times – I have no clue what will happen.
8th Place – Florence Henderson/Corky Ballas
I switched Florence and Kurt’s places a few times – Hey, she’s Mrs.Brady!! Not to mention that I believe she’s a long time Broadway performer. Yeah, she’s older – but so is DWTS’ audience.
7th Place – Kurt Warner/Anna Trebunskaya
Yeah, he’s a football player, but he’s up against people likely to be better dancers AND people who are bigger names. I like Kurt – think he’s hot. But he’s not Peyton Manning.
6th Place – Audrina Patridge/Tony Dovolani
It’s entirely possible that Audrina is either way too high or way too low. She’s an unknown quantity. That said, she is a model and she not in Brooke Burke’s season. If she had Derek, we’d be having a different discussion right now.
5th Place – Michael Bolton/Chelsie Hightower
It’s likely that you all think I’m crazy to put Michael this high. But let’s discuss his audience – and he is on tour right now. Yes, that will impact his rehearsal time – but this guy has an audience similar to Donny Osmond’s in age (and in DWTS likely viewers), but maybe a bit smaller. Hard to say. I think he’ll really have to suck to drop out of the top 6.
4th Place – Rick Fox/Cheryl Burke
I confess that I’m guessing Rick is in this spot largely due to Cheryl’s success on the show. I have no idea how he’ll really do – he could trade places with Kurt, or he could trade places with The Hoff. Who the heck knows? Athletes tend to do well on the show, but what happens when there are two from major sports going up against all these likely very popular people?
3rd Place – Jennifer Grey/Derek Hough
Another tough call. If she hadn’t just had her spine fused and she wasn’t 50 – and the competition was less fierce – I’d give her the win. At least partly because she has the strongest male pro of the bunch. Yeah, I know, I have other people older than her (the Hoff among others) near the top – but Jennifer has health issues working against her. Of course, Derek goes a long way to balance this out, but will it be enough? Who knows. Too many factors at work here.
2nd Place – David Hasselhoff/Kym Johnson
This guy is in 2nd place in my rankings because he has NO FEAR. He’s not afraid to make an ass of himself, he’s as out there as Donny Osmond, and I think he probably has rhythm. The problem is, he could easily be tremendously annoying, where Donny was annoying but had a massive fanbase. I confess, I could be totally off base on this one. He could get edged out by any of the top 6.
The Winner – Brandy/Maksim Chmerkovskiy
Brandy’s win hinges entirely on living up to a precedent that she might not be capable of living up to – pop stars can dance whether they are ringers or not. It doesn’t appear that Brandy is a ringer – and neither is she a sure thing. ANYONE that I’ve put in the top 5 or 6 could cause her to be the next Sabrina Bryan. This is one pop star whose win will depend almost entirely on Maks choreographing some great stuff and the people in lower positions not dancing better than her. AND being likeable will count more than EVER. Why? I don’t think she has a voting fanbase at this moment in time. Mya, Lil’ Kim, Sabrina, and Mel B are all examples of pop stars who either got beat by lesser dancer or went home before their time. Their fans were either not regular viewers of the show or not inclined to vote, or both.
So, what do you all think??