DWTS11 Preliminary Power Rankings – Part I
It’s that time of the year again! Time for me to do my preliminary power ranking of this season’s couples as a sort of prediction of how things will play out between now & November. For those of you who have no clue what I’m talking about (or just need a refresher from last season 😉 ), I do a weekly ranking of the couples after each performance show that is basically a measure of how likely they are to stick around that week. Now this is NOT a ranking of who danced the best; we all know that just because a couple is at the top of the leaderboard, doesn’t necessarily mean they’re safe. This is a far more comprehensive ranking – it takes into account not only a couple’s performance, but also how well-liked they are, how well-known they are, how strong their voting demographic is, how memorable they are, etc.
I correctly predicted last season’s top 5 before the season even began – I’m hoping to best that this season by correctly predicting the top 6 😉 But anywho, here’s my bottom half – the 6 couples I don’t think we should get too attached to, because I don’t foresee them sticking around for long…but there are always surprises!
12.) Mike “The Situation” Sorrentino & Karina Smirnoff – I really did have high hopes for these two, but unfortunately I just think they have too many odds stacked against them to last past the first week – that is, unless The Sitch turns out to be a natural, because they haven’t even started practicing yet. And they likely won’t until the week prior to the show, if what Karina’s tweeting is correct, since he’s wrapping up taping of the current season of Jersey Shore. Speaking of that show – I’m on the fence as to whether it’s going to be a boon or a burden for him. I said that I didn’t think Wildboyz & Jackass fans would tune in & vote for Steve-O, but he lasted until week 5…but I think Steve-O was also getting a bit of a sympathy vote from his recent stint in rehab. I’m not sure there’s anything for voters to feel sympathetic about as far as Mike’s concerned. And Jersey Shore is a really polarizing show – people either love it or hate it, so I hope to god that Mike is charming as can be if he wants to stick around. Karina is a pro that seems equally as polarizing – people seem to either adore her or loathe her (I’m in the former camp), and I’m afraid that her voting fanbase is just not going to be able to compensate for any lack of votes on the part of his fans. I hope to god that I’m wrong, because I really would like to see how these two do…but I’m preparing myself to see Mike join the infamous “first eliminees” club.
11.) Kyle Massey & Lacey Schwimmer – The only reason I see these two lasting longer than Mike & Karina is Lacey’s fanbase: she seems to have a decent-sized one, and they seem to be the type that are very motivated to vote. Echoing Heidi’s sentiments, Kyle is definitely the celebrity that has people going “Who?” this season – even co-workers of mine that have kids who watch Disney religiously were drawing a blank when I mentioned his name (and yes, for those of you who are new, I do use the ladies in my office as a sort of sample demographic – most are in their 30s & 40s with school-aged kids, which seems to be the biggest viewing demographic of the show). As for his dance prowess, if Lacey’s tweets and the rehearsal pictures that have been released are any indicator, then Kyle seems to be a bit of an awkward mover – and a jokester, so Lacey may have a hard time getting him to focus. Kyle may benefit slightly from the “mom” vote, but unless he’s really pretty good…I don’t think these two will last past the first few weeks.
10.) Bristol Palin & Mark Ballas – If Kate Gosselin’s longer-than-anyone-could-have-expected tenure on the show last season was any indicator, it’s that America loves controversial celebs – and I daresay Bristol has that position covered this season. Just like Heidi, I don’t see her getting sent home any sooner than week 3 – heck, I could even see her lasting until week 4 or 5, at the expense of a better dancer. I actually see her lasting longer if she’s exceptionally bad – just like viewers latch onto the best dancers, they also seem to enjoy keeping the bad ones around…everyone loves watching a train wreck. Mark’s also got one of the bigger fanbases on the show, so even if people don’t particularly care for Bristol, they’ll vote to keep Mark in the game, especially since he was eliminated so early last season. Judging from the rehearsal photos, it looks like Mark’s got his work cut out for him – Bristol definitely looks awkward. She’s also been pretty quiet and mundane in the media, so I don’t think she’s gonna make a huge impression in anyone’s minds – unless she’s just a really bad dancer. In which case, George Lopez may dub her this season’s Kate, and take it upon himself to campaign to keep her in…that fool.
9.) Audrina Patridge & Tony Dovolani – There’s been a good amount of debate so far about whether Audrina’s gonna sink or swim…I’m leaning towards the former. Audrina’s done a little bit of modeling, and I don’t know of any dancing she’s done (besides what you do in a smoke-filled club), so I’m inclined to think that she’s gonna go more the route of Holly Madison and Kathy Ireland than Melissa Rycroft or Stacy Keibler. Don’t get me wrong, she seems like a very sweet, pretty girl – a very sweet, pretty girl that’s not gonna make a whole lot of waves, good or bad. And unless she’s got some hidden skills we don’t know about (superhuman flexibility, gymnastics, etc.), I doubt Tony’s choreography is going to really showcase her well. As for voting power…I know The Hills had a cult-like following, but at the same time, just because someone likes that show doesn’t mean they necessarily like Audrina (I’ve known plenty who watched the show who absolutely despised her, for whatever reason). And Tony’s gotten sent home fairly early before – I don’t think he has the voting fanbase to carry them both. Oh well…at least she’ll look pretty in the costumes!
8.) Margaret Cho & Louis Van Amstel – No doubt, these two will be the comic relief this season. I didn’t think anyone could top the hilarity of Niecy & Louis, but this very well may do it! Do I think that Margaret is going to be a stellar dancer? Hell no, but neither was Niecy – I’m pretty sure she & Louis realized that pretty quickly, which is why they went to town working the comedy angle, and it worked for them. Margaret is a well-known comedian, so I could see die hard fans of hers coming out to vote; Louis is a bit more of a wild card, as I don’t really know if he has the broad-spectrum appeal of Derek or Mark – he does, however, seem to have the support of the LGBT community (as does Margaret), which quite a powerful demographic. I don’t think that alone (and their schtick) is going to carry them through to the midpoint of the competition, though, and I’m not sure there’s a whole lot for Louis to pull out of her in terms of real skill. Margaret is also known to get a bit bawdy in her comedy – something I think she may have to reign in if she doesn’t want to risk offending a good part of the voting audience. Overall, I think they’ll be fun to watch – but the humor will eventually wear thin and pale in comparison to better dancers and bigger fanbases.
7.) Michael Bolton & Chelsie Hightower – I know some people don’t really have high hopes for these two, but I think some people are really underestimating Michael’s appeal – I remember grown women & teenagers alike going CRAZY for this guy in the early 90s. As in screaming, crying, and bra-throwing crazy. And to be honest, the guy has aged pretty well – he’s definitely not terrible to look at (thank god he got rid of that ratty-ass hair!), and he’s still making music. I would bet those same women from 20 years ago still carry a bit of a torch for him, and they will step up to the plate & vote. As will the growing population of Chelsie fans – I think she’s all but filled in the role of the blonde, Mormon girl-next-door left vacant by Julianne. Will Michael be one of the breakout dancers of this season? Meh – probably not. But I do think he’ll make an honest effort, and I daresay he won’t be nearly as bad as some other guys. And honestly, I’m actually starting to warm to the idea of he & Chelsie together…it doesn’t seem like quite the odd couple that it first appeared, especially when you compare them to Ashly & Buzz (which, oddly enough, seemed to work as well). I honestly vacillated between putting them at 6th or 7th – and I still think they could potentially make it to the top half of the pack. But I think it’ll hinge upon how the couple I placed at #6 does…
…and with that, I give you the first half of my pre-season power rankings 😉 Curious about who I have making it to the finale, and who I have taking home the mirrorball trophy? Then stay tuned for part II…and I’ll give you a hint: my winner is different from the one Heidi predicted 😉
Great post! Looking forward to seeing part 2 for the top 6 and see who you chose as the winner. I guess since it is different from Heidi’s it is not Brandy and Maks.
I hope Audrina and Tony do better than you predict. Audrina has more than a million followers on social networks. If she will take the time to motivate those followers to vote for her, I think she and Tony could be around for many additional weeks.
Well, the social networks thing often doesn’t translate to votes, unfortunately. Lil’ Kim was one that had a huge following on twitter, and I’m sure there have been others. I think Donny Osmond, conversely, didn’t have a huge following on twitter. The age of DWTS audience skews older, and the age of those using social media skews younger – and sometimes they don’t intersect at all. Sometimes they do, for sure, and she could end up doing better. We won’t know until we see her dance, I don’t think.
OH Paula, don’t bother…. She just says that coz she hates Tony….. WHO CARES….
@Guest – There you go again with the selective literacy and incorrect deducing – what I wrote here was more about Audrina & her fanbase than it was about your beloved Tony. I’m not even gonna bother trying to reiterate to you what I told you in the other post, and Heidi did a pretty damn good job of summing up why Audrina might not last long. If you really care so little…then why are you still reading?
I like Tony a lot, but I think Courtney is right on the money about him. He doesn’t have a big fan base like Derek, Mark or Maks. Tony is one of my favorite pros, but my constant complaint each season is that he needs to step up his choreography! Both times that he made it to the finals, he did not do a good freestyle. Seriously. Remember Stacy Keibler’s? Yeah, I’m sure many don’t remember either. But Tony choreographed my #3 favorite dance of all time which was Melissa Rycroft’s Samba in week 8. So, he has it in him, but he needs to step it up. Here’s hoping that Tony has taken a lesson and will step it up (if Audrina is good, and I really hope she is).
Excellent Courtney. I pretty such see those people in the bottom half as well. Though the way Tony acts at Twitter, he may have an ace in his pocket. We will soon see.
Have I told you all how much I love this site?!!!!
I think I can speak for all of us when we say “we love you too” Vogue. 🙂 I’ve seen you tweeting about this site. We Lurve you.
AHhhhhh THANK YOU SO MUCH!!!!!!!!!XOXOXOxxxx Ditto ditto. If there is anything I can ever do for you, just let me know!!
What a great post – can’t wait for the second part! And I couldn’t agree more … my top and bottom 6 jibe with Courtney’s list (of course, Courtney’s is a lot more insightful). I dare say, though, these initial lists may well be shot to hell soon – probably at 10:01pm on 9/20 🙂
I first had Mike pegged in the top 7 or 8 – I felt there was potential for great chemistry between him & Karina, and that he would work hard, perhaps feeling he had something to prove to all the naysayers. But if he hasn’t even started practicing yet tells me he’s not really taking this too seriously – or underestimating what it’s going to take. Let’s hope he’s got charm oozing and moves grooving 😉 Michael I initally thought would be gone very early, but I’m beginning to reconsider – the rehearsal photos have given be a better vibe about him. And I really like Chelise, so we’ll see.
Really Courtney, this is a well thought-out discussion of the pros and cons facing each team as they prepare for the premier. Thank you so much. Looking forward to your analysis of the top 6 (this could be Anna’s season, but my gut tells me it might be David, which I can’t really get excited about)
You’re such a tease Courtney only posting half of the list. I love it!
I think Audrina will do well. I also think Kyle and Lacey will go longer than that. 🙂
P.S. Guess i think your right. I mean who could hate Tony?!?! Its Louis that irritates me! I could take him till i saw him in Florence Henderson’s photo shoot dress. Now im still having nightmares….:P
I just would hate ot see tony have a bad partner again. In season 9 he had Kathy Ireland woh got him to week 2. He had Kate Gosselin last season ( Who i think is awesome but her dancing…..Ehh ). Thats all 🙂
Zack: “Its Louis that irritates me! I could take him till i saw him in Florence Henderson’s photo shoot dress. Now im still having nightmares….:P”
ROTFLLLLL
LOOOOOL!!!! Thx Voguerista! Your so nice! 😀
DITTO!!!!! 😉 xxx
Does anybody know if there will be Two dance nights on week 1 or and a dance night then a results show? 🙂
No clue, Zack. I know there are two nights in the first week, which is different than last season. For the show to last the same number of weeks they either have to eliminate someone on Tuesday night of the first week, or we get a double elimination somewhere later.
Ok thx Heidi! To me it kinda stinks to eliminate someone on the premire ( Let alone 2 ) even tho i loved season 9 and i can see where they had to since there were 16 couples. But id almost rather see like a double elimination with a dance off ( I love those ) later in the season then a coule leave on the premire that would really stink for them after all that work.
I totally agree that no one should be eliminated the first week, Zack. Another upside to waiting until week 2: everyone can give both ballroom and latin a try.
Yep! What i loved about season 9 was the week 1 relay dances so even if u got the boot in the first week * Cough * Ashley Hamilton and Macy Grey * Cough * you were guaranted to get to dance a Ballroom and a Latin dance :D! 3 major things i want DWTS to bring back 1: Week 1 Relay Dances 2: Slightly bigger casts ( considering they already added one extra cast member from last season i think that will happen 3: ANNA DEMIDOVA!!!!!!! PLZ!!!! SHE WOULD OF BEEN GREAT FOR RICK FOX SINCE HES LIKE !) FT TALL! ) Cheryl is awesome too but still bring Anna back!
I mean 10 ft tall lol!
I couldn’t agree more – I hate it when a team gets elimated after only 1 dance. You know it’s all nerves and adrenaline that first night so let them at least get one more week under their belt before we kick them to the curb 🙂
Lol! TO DA WORD, LINDE!!! 😀
[…] DWTS11 Preliminary Power Rankings – Part I […]
[…] last week, I formulated who wouldn’t last past the midpoint of the competition in part I of my season 11 preliminary power ranking. Today, I’ll reveal my top half – and who I think is going to walk away with that mirrorball […]
Audrina was on “Lopez Tonight”, which is a great show, and she danced a little bit. She looks like she could be good in a full dance.
http://perezhilton.com/2010-09-15-audrina_patridge_previews_dancing_on_lopez_tonight
And I loved url ist (both parts of it). I am hoping that Michael Bolton goes first then the Situation though (nothing against Chelsie but it is more exciting to see the Situation and the lovely Karina hit the dance floor more than him). I totally agree with you about the disney kid……he is defiantely going during the first two weeks.
Seeing Audrina dance, she reminds me so much of Joanna Krupa. We can’t count her out of this in any way.
I thought the same thing when I saw the video too. I am just glad that Tony got a good partner again.
Yeah, Vogue – but Joanna had DEREK. Audrina….doesn’t. 🙂
LOL Heidi! True. lol
Joanna was thought by everyone to be Derek’s waterloo (so to speak) because she’s not only a model but she had bad baggage from that previous reality show. Not so much. 🙂 That happens a lot to Derek, though, but some fans create this revisionist history – Lil’ Kim was supposed to also go out early because people thought she would be foul mouthed and that no one would vote for someone just out of prision. Up until Nicole, Derek routinely was given “bad on paper” partners that he managed to take a long way.
Happened several seasons with people saying “finally, Derek gets an early exit partner” – and I laugh every time. 🙂 Now, I sure hope Jennifer isn’t the one. I doubt it – but this season is weird.
I just loved Joanna and Derek. Talk about a “pretty couple”. My fave all time couple on the show. And I had never heard of her until she was on DWTS.
Heidi – you’re right about Derek’s partners. Many of them haven’t been that great. It’s a testimony to his skills as a teacher that some of them have lasted as long as they did. In regards to Nicole, Maks said whoever got her would have won. Uh, no. I don’t think most of the male pros could have choregoraphed numbers that stunning, nor could they have kept up with her. It really matters who your pro is.
[…] refresher for other bloggers’ opinions of rankings please see Heidi and Courtney’s (Part I and Part II) posts as well as John’s posts about the odds/competitiveness factor and the […]
Maks said that? When has a female pop star called a ringer won? Mya did not win neither did Mel or Sabrina. Kristi and Shawn won but they were very popular. No one knew how Nicole would do. It is easy for Maks to say that after Nicole won and she had such great routines.
@John – Yes, Maks said that, and it wasn’t a quote I read somewhere, I actually saw him say it. It was either on Good Morning America or on the DWTS show itself.
Erin also remarked – and not in a joking way – on GMA that Nicole and Derek had all their routines planned from day one, inferring that they knew they’d win. They were a bitter pair.
Huh? How does Erin get from “having all their routines planned from day one” to “they knew they’d win”? Seems a pretty far leap to me. For one thing, how does she know that? Besides, I would infer that maybe Derek is so good that he could plan that far ahead based on the 3 weeks of practice before the premier with an uber-capable partner – he has said on many occasions in prior seasons that he does think ahead to the dances coming up. Also, wasn’t the 50’s paso doble they did pulled out of a hat the week prior – or something like that, I don’t recall exactly – so not planned that far ahead I would think. That dance was GREAT – admittedly, I’m no dancer or entertainer, or actor even. I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t know a feckle from a freckle from a fickle fan, but damn they nailed that dance – WOW! So very Derek in the little details, and hats off to Nicole (who I so did not want to like) for pulling it off. There was a lot of bitterness, it seems, from many corners. What a shame, too, to dilute their win with such pettiness. It really reflects poorly on Erin – I must say, I’m a little surprised. I had a different opinion of her.
Yeah, Carlie is right, I remember that. Said it right in front of Derek who busted his ass choreographing Emmy nominated routines. No wonder Nicole was crying about people claiming it was easy for her – she had to deal with those two bitter pills. I wonder if they even realize how jealous and condescending they sound. To have all your hard work just dismissed out of hand. Okay, great. I’m pissed off all over again.
I’ve had a negative opinion of Erin from early on, Linde, because she was always making comments like that. Thing is, Nicole was the superior dancer and Derek choreographed UP TO her abilities. So, she was always doing much harder dances (and often getting lower scores for her trouble) than Erin. Erin got 8’s and 9’s on dances that were well below the difficulty level that Nicole was doing with Derek. THAT’S why it’s not so unfair.
@Carlie, I seem to remember that interview and I thought Maks was joking. He repeatedly gave Derek and Anna credit for their stars performing so well. If he really thought Nicole and Derek didn’t earn the win he probably wouldn’t have bother saying anything nice about either of them.
@ Linde – Erin made the comment about Derek and Nicole planning all their numbers in advance because she was insinuating the show was rigged and that the producers gave it to them from day one. Sour grapes.
@Amy R – Can you remember where that interview took place? I’d like to find it to re-watch it.
I’ve got to say, I would find this hard to believe if you hadn’t heard it yourself – Erin somehow seemed more mature than this. Oh yea – the show is definitely rigged HA HA HA! Didn’t Steve Wozniak have to eat a little crow because of a similar accusation the he could not prove, despite his computo/tencho/nerdo prowess? Please – get over yourself Erin. If it had not been Nicole & Derek winning, the mirror ball trophy would not have gone to you & Maks anyway. So there …. :p
[…] with the Stars Season 11 pros in a wide variety of ways: DWTS Power Rankings 1-6 by Courtney DWTS Power Rankings 7-12 by Courtney DWTS Who’s Gonna Win by Princess Heidi DWTS Stats Class (The Pros) by Marianya […]