DWTS 11 Stat Class: Who has the Edge? Part 1

Yay! My turn. :D

Heidi and Courtney (Part I and Part II) turned in their feelings of how the power ranking would work for the season. While John wrote about odds/competitiveness factor as well as number of twitter followers for each celeb.

If you were following last season, I tried to predict scores for the stars before they actually started dancing. Well here I am again, using a more “advanced” statistical analysis to try to predict where each celeb will ultimately end up.

These calculations are based on three factors:
- Age Group: Taking the average of all the placements of all past celebrities and breaking them down by age group (teens, 20s, 30s, 40s, etc), it came to pass that those in their teens through 30s tend to do better than those in their 40s on up. As in on average three placements better. That being said, the celebs (on average) place lower in accordance with their age… with one notable exception: those in their 60s tend to place higher than those in their 50s.
- Occupation: Again taking the average of all the placements of all past celebrities and breaking them down by occupation. I know there are a lot of celebs that work in multiple mediums, however, I am focusing on the medium that they are best know for. David Hasselhoff is known for Baywatch thus he’s known as an actor. Brandy is best known for her music thus she’s in the singer category. And yes Reality stars have their own category and those like Bristol Palin are found in the “other” category.
- Professional Dancer: And yes, I even went so far as to calculate the average placement of all the professional partners through all the seasons. I tried to normalize the result as much as possible, but obviously as much as I try to make this a scientific calculation, it is only half the battle.

After averaging all three of the above factors out I come up with a fairly decent representation of how the celebs could be placed in competition. Granted things will change with every passing season, but we’ll see how things go.

In Part II of the DWTS Stat Class: Who has the Edge? I will present the above three factors in action and give a bit of an analysis of each factor as well as my thoughts, and then follow that with a final averaged placement.

So for your reading enjoyment… I will give you the ranking of the pros (including Alec, Edyta, and Julianne for nostalgia’s sake) in order of ranking from highest to lowest.

The professional dancers (dancers participating on Season 11 are in bold):
1.) Derek Hough – 6 Seasons
2.) Julianne Hough – 5 Seasons
3.) Cheryl Burke – 9 Seasons
4.) Lacey Schwimmer – 3 Seasons
5.) Kym Johnson – 7 Seasons
6.) Chelsie Hightower – 3 Seasons
7.) Dmitry Chaplin – 2 Seasons
8.) Karina Smirnoff – 7 Seasons
9.) Louis van Amstel – 6 Seasons
10.) Mark Ballas – 6 Seasons
11.) Tony Dovolani – 9 Seasons
12.) Corky Ballas – 1 Season
13.) Maksim Chmerkovskiy – 8 Seasons
14.) Anna Trebunskaya – 5 Seasons
15.) Edyta Sliwinska – 10 Seasons
16.) Alec Mazo – 5 Seasons
17.) Ashly Costa (nee DelGrosso) – 4 Seasons
18.) Jonathan Roberts – 7 Seasons