DWTS11 Preliminary Power Rankings, Part II
So last week, I formulated who wouldn’t last past the midpoint of the competition in part I of my season 11 preliminary power ranking. Today, I’ll reveal my top half – and who I think is going to walk away with that mirrorball trophy. Enjoy & dicuss!
6.) Florence Henderson & Corky Ballas – I think these two could be interchangeable with Michael & Chelsie, depending on how memorable Florence can be. No doubt Florence will likely be the better dancer – she’s had legit experience, plus the footage I’ve seen of her practicing so far looks reeeeaaally good. She seems like a very focused, hard worker. She’s also got the boon of being the oldest cast member, which seems to bring its own voting fanbase with it. The one problem I think Flo might have is the comparisons she’s likely gonna get to Cloris, since that’s been Corky’s only other partner – and she and Cloris are NOTHING alike, besides their older age. While part of Cloris’ appeal was her outrageous behavior, it’s something we’re not going to see out of Flo…like I’ve mentioned before, Flo is very demure and classy, and not the type to throw out off-color comments and innuendo. As for Corky and his fanbase…that’s a little harder to predict. He’s only been on the show once before, and it seemed like it was his partner’s outrageous behavior that kept them around so long. I’m not sure if Mark’s (or Derek’s, for that matter) fans are gonna throw any votes his direction, or if he has enough of a fanbase of his own to really make a difference. Regardless, I’m actually kind of excited for these two – it will be nice to see what a dynamite choreographer like Corky can really do with a partner that’s willing to work.
5.) Kurt Warner & Anna Trebunskaya – Now Kurt could be the worst dancer in the competition this season, and I still don’t think he’d get sent home any sooner than week 6 or 7, just due to being a former NFL player (the worst any of them have done is 7th place). On top of that, he’s the first quarterback we’ve ever had on the show, and the QB’s are typically the most well-known players on each team. But I think Kurt could actually be pretty good, if his work ethic during dance practice is anything like his work ethic on the football field. And really – Kurt just seems like a genuinely good guy. Comes from humble roots, evangelical Christian, family man, does a lot of charity work…I’m not sure there’s a more likeable guy in the competition. He also seems to have a goofy side (see The Great Previous Dance Experience Debate, Part II), which always seems to balance nicely with a serious work ethic. I think Anna has also beefed up her fanbase after having such a breakout season with Evan – people have warmed to her considerably, and she seems to have gotten a good deal more comfortable with her own choreography. But while these two will likely be Mr. & Mrs. Congeniality this season, I don’t think Kurt necessarily has the dance chops (or the explosive personality) to make it to the semifinals.
4.) David Hasselhoff & Kym Johnson – I’m saying this right now – I don’t think the Hoff is going to be a fantastic dancer. Decent, maybe; but not great. However, I do think he will be this season’s funny man, and that will take him farther than his dance skills will. From the bit of media that I’ve seen so far with him in it, I’m having flashbacks of Donny in season 9 – the Hoff is definitely hamming it up. Very chatty, cracking a lot of jokes, but seems enthusiastic…I do think he’ll make an honest effort, but I’m just not sure he’s got a ton of natural skill to pair it with. But that’s ok, because if there’s one thing Kym is really good at, it’s taking an okay partner and giving them choreography that really lets them shine – I think that’s exactly what she did with Donny & Warren, and I’m sure that’s what she’ll do with David. Plus Kym is quite possibly the most likeable female pro in the competition – mellow, sweet, and drop dead gorgeous. I think they’ll look good together, and will likely be one of the couples out there that is truly enjoying themselves – it probably won’t trump some of the better-dancing couples, but I could see it taking them to the semifinal.
3.) Jennifer Grey & Derek Hough – Looks like Heidi and I are in agreement on this one – Team Jenougher will probably make it to the finale, but just don’t quite have the juice to go all the way. Like Heidi, I agree that Jennifer’s age and recent health issues will likely hinder this pair a bit; however, I do think she will be a sentimental fave with the voters, and they will come out to vote for her in big ways…even if she isn’t the greatest. She does have a big advantage in having Derek; choreographically, I think he’s the strongest male pro and the one most likely to bring out the best in his partners. He’s also got an uber-strong fanbase, and they’re smart about how they vote. The only thing I can’t really predict is if there’s going to be any backlash from his win last season – I can’t decide if those that are still pissed about Nicole winning are going to refuse to vote for Derek now, even if they really do like what he’s doing with Jen. Ditto for the same people that are clinging to the (flimsy) notion that Jennifer is a “professional dancer” and that DWTS is strictly for stars with “no dance experience” (keep dreaming) – are they gonna refuse to vote too, just on principle? By the same token, are they gonna refuse to vote for Brandy, Florence, & the Hoff too? I would like to think that in a season like this, with a fairly level playing field, that people wouldn’t try to concoct conspiracy theories like that – but there’s always some renegades. That whole mess aside, I do think these two will be one of the stronger couples this season…but I’m not sure they’re going to have enough momentum to win.
2.) Brandy & Maksim Chmerkovskiy – I’m sure there will be shock, awe, and outrage over this one, but when it comes down to it I just don’t think Brandy is going to be the stereotypical “pop-star ringer” that everyone is saying she is. As we proved with the previous dance experience post, Brandy’s career has not been nearly as dance-heavy as, say, Nicole, Sabrina, or even Mel B’s. And unlike Nicole & Sabrina, who were still in the high point of their careers when they did the show, Brandy’s been out of the spotlight for a little while now…aside from an album she released last year that flopped, and the reality show she has with her family on VH1 (which I’m not sure paints her in the best light), she hasn’t really been up to anything “big” in over 10 years. I’m not sure how much of her original fanbase is still invested enough to come out and vote for her, which will likely cause her to rely heavily on pulling people in with great dancing. And from what I’ve seen from the media so far – Brandy seems like a focused, hard worker, but doesn’t seem to be a natural when it comes to ballroom. However, I do think she has an advantage in having Maks, who does have a large fanbase, and is a good choreographer – when he isn’t pissing off the judges or throwing fits (then again, like Heidi, I blame a lot of his less savory behavior last season on Erin, who seemed to bring out the worst in him, for whatever reason). However, it is encouraging to see Maks & Brandy practicing and no tantrums being thrown by either party – the energy between them seems much more synergistic than it was between him and some of his other partners. I daresay this will likely result in some really good, memorable routines. However, when it comes down to it, I think they’re no match for…
1.) Rick Fox & Cheryl Burke – Ok, pick your jaw up off the floor, and let me explain why I think these two could be the couple to beat this season. First off, athletes generally do well (duh) – and pretty male athletes tend to do REALLY well (think Jason Taylor, Apolo Ohno, Helio Castroneves). And when a pretty athlete teams up with a pretty female pro – watch out. I have already said multiple times that I think these two are going to be this season’s most handsome couple. Plus Cheryl is statistically the strongest female pro on the show – two wins, one 2nd place finish, one 3rd place finish, and 2 trips to the semi finals in her 9 seasons on the show – and she’s also one of the toughest, which Rick has said works well for him. I also have a sneaking suspicion that Rick is not completely inept in the rhythm department – ex-wifey Vanessa Williams was a fantastic dancer, and I can’t imagine that a little bit of know-how didn’t rub off on him during their 5-year marriage. Rick also has the boon of being a star not only from his basketball career, but also his acting career – he’s appeared on quite a few TV shows. Both he and Cheryl seem to have pretty good-sized fanbases on their own, too, which gives them a bit of an edge over couples where the celeb isn’t as popular as the pro, and vice-versa. Seems like this couple has a pretty good hand to play…but they do seem to be keeping their poker face up. Not a whole lot of media leakage on these two, which makes me think that they’re really trying to play up the whole surprise factor when Rick turns out to be pretty damn good. Cheryl seemed to do the same thing with Gilles, and look how he panned out. But I daresay it will be interesting to see what these two have up their sleeves 😉
So there you have it – I’ve laid out my predictions for this season’s couples, without any of them having actually set foot on the floor. Definitely hoping for some surprises this season, since this is the most level the playing field has been in quite some time. But what do you guys think? Am I onto something? Am I full of crap? SPEAK UP! 😀
I think you are pretty dead on Courtney!! Superb write up once again! I think it’s going to be anyone’s ball game between the top three you listed. Gawd, you guys have me so excited about next week. I love this site as much as I do the show. lol
5 days and counting (not counting today). 😉
Florence and Corky are tooooo high IMO. I can’t see them beyond week 4. Maybe in another season but not this season.
Rick and Cheryl will be in the TOP 5 but nowhere near finals.
Brandy will be in the finals for sure.
Kurt will simply sucks.
RE: Derek and a recent win backlash – here is where you have to distinguish between the average viewer/voter and the squeaky wheels that reside on the internet. The former is MUCH larger than the latter, although the latter will claim to be all powerful. They will likely vote more often, but I don’t think they can surpass the many who watch the show but aren’t sitting on message boards bitching.
I just don’t know if that’s going to be a factor if Jennifer is GOOD. Lord knows she’s got personality to spare. 🙂 I think this season has the potential to be a real toss up – any body’s game. I hope a few of them are good dancers and it’s not a cast of mediocrity where the winner is chosen based on size of fanbase. 🙂
I can see Brandy cast in the role of Mel B – bridesmaid instead of bride. We’ll see. I pick her for the win but with this cast I don’t think it’s so easy.
I’m clueless and naive about these things. I’m usually wrong in predicting the winners, although a few times the ones I wanted to win actually did win (Helio and Julianne, and Derek and Nicole). I was sure last seasib was going to spring a surprise on us and give the trophy to anyone but Derek and Nicole, so what do I know? Soooo, I have absolutely no predictions, but only personal favourites so far.
Wow! This is great Courtney. We are spot on. You have my top 5. Michael and Florence are a toss up for the 7th and 6th spot for me as well. As much as I am loving the footage of Jennifer and Derek, I agree with your comments. It’s a tough call on them since Derek just came off of a win and it will be fresh on people’s mind. Even if they don’t win, I would love for them to be in the finals as I love a Derek freestyle.
I actually can see Rick and Cheryl taking the mirror ball trophy over Brandy and Maks, but wondering if viewers will keep in mind that Cheryl won twice as well and not be inclined to vote for them because of her. Who am I kidding, the viewers love her and she is a favorite. I even like her.
I am getting excited for Monday. Can’t wait. Love this site as well as PDH.
Good post. I think you may be mostly correct. You have Rick & Cheryl ranked too highly. I’m not sure Cheryl will be able to drag him across the finish line. Rick is very tall (6’7″) with a much higher center of gravity. This will put him at a disadvantage that I’m not sure Cheryl will be able to work around. Additionally, I think you are underestimating Bristol Palin. She is the youngest competitor who will improve as the weeks go by. Additionally, she’s paired w/ Mark. Otherwise, I think you are mostly correct in your analysis.
I would agree with the top three but not confident it will necessarily be in that order. I think we will obviously know a lot more after next week. I would put Brandy third and then it’s a toss up between Rick and Jen. The reason I say Brandy third is because I don’t think she is going to have near the fanbase that the other two will have in going against the athlete & someone with as much nostalgia as baby. In fact, I worry Brandy is going to have to really outdance some people to even get into the finals because of the popularity vote. Her fans do not fit the demographics of those who are strong voters. Because of this, I just don’t see her gaining the popular vote over Rick or Jen who both would appeal more favorably to that voting demographic and I’m not sure there will be enough disparity in the dance scores to really matter.
I hope I’m wrong because I would love my fav pro (Maks) to get the trophy but that would just be the cherry on top really. After three season in a row of early outs with Misty, Denise, & Deb, I will take just getting into the finals again with no complaints.
@semi-knowledge dancer, You make a valid point in regards to the height difference between Rick and Cheryl. It was very obvious from the footage and photos. I guess will find out for sure how well these two will rank on Monday. I will still them as top 3. In regards to Bristol, I agree she is young and should be able to learn the routine quickly and improve as weeks go. However, not sure how much viewers will vote for her because of her mom and from the footage I have seen she is extremely shy, nervous, and modest. Mark has his work cut out for her to make her ‘sensual’ and be open in order to make a mark in the competition.
Interesting prediction. I think Rick is primed to do well. My top #3 are the same, I’m just not sure of the order until we see them.
He is being adorable on twitter and FB and he’s already addressing his limitations with gusto. He looked good in the ET clip, and he said in an early interview how much he admired Jason Taylor, just owning his height. Gilles Marini is bromancing him big time. Now Gilles has been a staunch supporter of the Cheryl vote forever, but last season he said nothing about her partner. This season he’s totally behind Rick, I think that makes a difference. We know Gilles loves to get to the shows and plug his faves. I think for appeal on this show, Rick is doing what he needs to do to get it done. If he has better latin skill than
Jason, he could take top spot.
BTW Jamie Lee Curtis has made herself Captain of Team Jennifer Grey
http://www.tvsquad.com/2010/09/15/the-situation-talks-stripping-and-dancing-with-the-stars-v/
Just a word about the height thing. It is an issue. Cheryl is a couple of inches shorter than Edyta, however Edyta’s choreography is not what Cheryl can do, so if Cheryl can make a guy with a ruptured tendon look decent, she’ll be able to work with Rick.
There are those who think that Rick was actually assigned Edyta, because she already done well with Jason Taylor at 6’6″ Rick even mentioned in an early interview that he was assigned one of the taller dancers, but that obviously changed.
My guess, a contract dispute or whatever happened and Edyta was dropped. Cheryl was originally following the Situation, and that could have been her assignment. Karina had someone, and then that person dropped out, and Lacey gets a last minute call so Kyle fills the void. Further there is no Olympian on this season, the first time in years.
Original assignment speculation:
Cheryl the Situation
Edyta Rick Fox
Karina Johnny Weir
After juggle
Cheryl Rick Fox
Edyta dismissed
Karina Johnny drops out – re assigned the situation
Lacey and disney contract player Kyle brought in as a last minute fill in.
Oh Andie, I’m still bummed Johnny Weir wasn’t picked. *CRIESSS* But, I’m going to hold on to hope that he will do the Spring Edition. 😀
@Voguerista, well it just makes sense, Karina’ webpage was all excited and she writes Guess who? Her excitement just made me think of only one person, Weir. And then the next day we find on her newspage she’s in and out.
There was a juggle of partners no question.
Yep, and Johnny was in LA at the time too. The timing just seemed so perfect. I asked him several times at Twitter if he was dancing. He was totally tight lipped on it and wouldn’t confirm or deny the rumors. That lead me to believe he was doing it (or will do it in the future?).
As long as Team Jenougher gets to the finals I’m all good 😀
I’m really excited to see everyone, including Bristol. I just have a small feeling she may suprise many and turn out to be decent and improve. I’m also excited to see Kyle, I love the disney kids for some reason! I actually think he may do ok, Cody Linley was pretty good for his season, which isn’t really saying much because there weren’t many strong dancers that season. We all know Sabrina was amazing, and while not a huge disney kid, Monique Coleman was in High School Musical I believe, and she turned out to be really good as well. I can’t really pick out anyone that I think will be terrible, they all seem able to me. And I’m going to laugh when people bring out “(insert name here) is a professional dancer! he/she has an advantage over everyone else!” It’s pretty much an even playing field this year, so anyone complaining about it is just really petty 🙂
No question. I want to see Jennifer in the finals, and I’d like to see Rick and Cheryl there if he proves strong enogh in both Latin and Standard.
Nothing like a good showdown between great pros.
Naaaa. Audrina will make it past the half way point. Shes got great rythm. Im not feeling these rankings at all but who knows! 🙂
From what I’ve seen, Zack, she’s got no hips. She also doesn’t have much of a personality at ALL – so unless her Hills fanbase comes out, how well she dances may not matter. We’ll see.
Well, there had to be a juggle of partners since Lacey was originally out – I never thought that would be in question by anyone. I figured several of the women would have to be shuffled. Highly unlikely that Edyta and Lacey get the same sorts of partners.
I’m with Heidi in regards to Audrina. I saw no hip action and the footages of Tony and her have been really boring to me. I personally don’t see her making it past half way. I could be wrong about the Hills fanbase but the top 5 listed here I think have a way better fan base and have the more popular pros. Guess we’ll see.
Tony has made it passed halfway point with all his partners ( except Kathy Ireland). He’s made it to the finals with Stacy and Melissa and Top 4 with Marissa. Susan and Janey made it to week 7.
She also has over a million follwers on twitter. I just checked and he had 30,000 more followers since DWTS announcement ( compared it with the number you guys posted sometime ago.)
And her technique is quite good actually.
He? had 30,000 more followers? Tony only has 19k.
The Twitter followers only matter if they are followers that vote. Lil’ Kim had over a million when she was on the show too. Kim Kardashian had more than a million too. We’ll see. She seems like a bore and like it or not that is somewhat important.
I meant SHE had….
Bottom line is, The Hill and The Jersey Shores are what 90210 and The OC used to be. I suspect The Situation and Audrina will do better than you think – If they can dance of course.
@Jennifer, Tony was eliminated before the half way mark with Liza Gibbons (season 4) and Kate (season 10).
I totally forgot about Liza. Kate made it week 5…halfway point.
Halfway point in weeks, but not in contestants. Only seventh place. I don’t call that halfway – I’m sure others disagree.
@Jennifer, I think we’re both right. She did make it to week 5 as you said. She also placed 8 out of 11 contestants. If we are ranking contestants, then she wouldn’t make it halfway, which is what I was referring to.
I tend not to put too much stock in the pro pairing in terms of where people place. Pro’s with a terrible records can go to the finals and winners can be out first. A lot depends on the mix of the cast, who stands out, and whether a star takes to the format of the show. I thought Shannen would make it past elimination 1 for sure with her okay scores, name recognition, and Mark. I guess that’s what keeps the show interesting.
I think Audrina will do well if Tony can work on her hips! Kurt didnt look great niether did Rick Fox…He looks ackward. No offense to anybody on this post or Courtney!!!! Plz dont be offended!! I could be wrong! 🙂
oh i dont think Audrina was boreing! Not compared to Bristol at all. I dont dislike Bristol…..
but just sayin.
I don’t think anyone will be offended Zack, we’re just sharing our opinions. 🙂
Ok good!! Just saw Audrina dancing on Lopez. Lil more hips. lol 5 MORE DAYS!!!!!
[…] and Courtney (Part I and Part II) turned in their feelings of how the power ranking would work for the season. While John wrote […]
Erin brought out the worst in Maks? You two Derek-Kool-Aid drinking clowns really know how to start off the morning by making people laugh their asses off at you.
Gee Donna, last I checked, you were the only one laughing, and the rest of us were actually having an intelligent conversation. But glad we could start your morning off with a hearty laugh 😉
I was having an intelligent discussion. NOW I’m laughing. 🙂
I sense Donna must be a struggling individual. How about just telling your thoughts (even if it’s disagreeing) intelligently without name calling like a grade schooler. Either that or get some help. From here on out, I will have a hard time respecting your posts. I hope you’ll step up your game.
This a great post with some with a very interesting analysis of where the contestants could “possibly” end up in the competition. For the most part, I agree.
Rick Fox, I seriously do not believe that he will win. I do believe he will go far but I do not see him making it to the semi-finals and definitely not winning.
Margaret Cho, now here’s a contestant that has flown under the radar, especially, where expectations are concerned. She’s a belly dancer for goodness sake and after seeing her small clip in her 1st rehearsal footage, the girl is good. I believe that she has the capability of going possibly as far as the semi-finals. IMO, she is doing better then most of the contestants that I’ve seen. Plus she appears to be comfortable dancing. Guess we will find out on Monday.
Margaret Cho/Louis
I’m still pissed off that Ali and/or Roberto aren’t on the show. They would be definite contenders
Ali’s now a broadcaster in San Diego and they took some Salsa lessons today.
[…] previous posts ranking all of the Dancing with the Stars Season 11 pros in a wide variety of ways: DWTS Power Rankings 1-6 by Courtney DWTS Power Rankings 7-12 by Courtney DWTS Who’s Gonna Win by Princess Heidi DWTS […]