DWTS Season 11, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers
It’s time once again to look at the numbers and guess who is likely to go home. For new readers, I started this series mainly because people were placing too high an emphasis on the scores, when really the scoring can be misleading and it often comes down to VOTES. Now, early in the season this isn’t as true as it is later in the season. Why? Well, there are more people who divide up the votes and scores, and when you have one couple scoring a 24 and another couple scoring a 15 you don’t really need to do the math to figure that the couple with the 15 could be in trouble. 
A refresher…
Here’s how it works. Every couple gets a score between 3 and 30. Once ALL the scores have been handed out, they are added up to reach the total points awarded on a given night. That number is divided into each individual score to give that couple their percentage of the judges score. That accounts for HALF of the couples total score, the other half being the viewer votes.
The viewer votes work the same way – the total number of votes cast is divided into the number of votes a couple got for a percentage. The two percentages (Judges score and Viewer vote) are then added together. The couple with the lowest combined score is the couple that goes home tonight.
So, how did our couples do in terms of actual percentages??
Dancers Percentage of the Judges Scores:
Jennifer = 10.57%
Brandy = 10.13%
Kyle = 10.13%
Rick = 9.69%
Audrina = 8.37%
Kurt = 8.37%
Bristol = 7.93%
Florence = 7.93%
Michael = 7.05%
Margaret = 6.61%
Sitch = 6.61%
David = 6.61%
Margaret, Sitch and David are all 3.52 points away from Brandy and Kyle – which equates to about 35.5k votes per 1 million votes cast. So, I can easily call Jennifer, Brandy and Kyle safe. I don’t see Margaret, Sitch and David ALL getting 35.5k votes per million more than Jennifer, Brandy or Kyle. I suppose it’s possible in Kyle’s case – and would have said it was possible before last night – but Kyle just did a great freakin’ job on his dance. I don’t think he has a huge fanbase, but his score was high enough to keep him safe, I think.
So, I think Brandy, Jennifer and Kyle are safe – and likely safe for a few weeks as all three were just amazing in different ways. I actually liked Maks’ “I’m being good” face, love Brandy, Jennifer made me freakin’ cry and Kyle was a joy to watch. But what about the others?
Rick and Cheryl – beautiful couple, although I don’t see quite the fabulocity that some of my co-bloggers do. I’m rooting for him because he seems very sweet and he sure is purdy. :-) I don’t think he’s going anywhere at all.
Audrina and Tony – pretty much what I expected; beautiful but forgettable. And, in my opinion, Tony made what could have been a very costly error. He changed up their dance a week before show time solely based on them being the first to dance. Dude, she’s good but she ain’t a trained dancer nor is she experienced at dancing live. Why on earth would you take a routine that she probably had down COLD and change it up?? What were you thinking?? By doing that, an element of nerves was added that didn’t need to be there. I think that Tony is lucky that Margaret was so freakin ‘ bad – and that Audrina managed to pull it off with only some stiffness and lack of fire. That could have been a disaster. I still wonder if she wouldn’t have been much better on their old routine.
Kurt and Anna – disappointing. Pretty stiff. But they should be safe on the football vote for a while. Until the football vote gets beat by the basketball vote.
Bristol and Mark – she was not good, but she’s also not a performer or athlete or remotely used to being on TV in this setting. She didn’t totally suck. I was rooting for her – she’s just a kid, after all. I gotta give it up to Mark Ballas, because he was totally there for her the whole way through. Kinda wrapped himself around her like a security blanket. Very sweet. I think she’s safe based on the conservative vote.
Florence and Corky – Don’t know about these two. I went into this thinking she would go a long way based on the nostalgia vote, but there is a hell of a lot of nostalgia floating around the ball room these days, and a lot of characters. She might be safe for 2 more weeks.
Now we get to the bottom four who were just varying degrees of awful. Out of this, Michael has a slight leg up on his competition. He’s 0.44% ahead of them in the Judges scores, which equates to about 4,400 votes per 1 million votes cast. So the question is (providing I’m right about the top 8 of course), can Margaret, David AND the Sitch ALL get 4,400 more votes per 1 million cast such that he goes home? I don’t think so. I think David and Michael both have fanbases that intersect the viewers voting on this show. I think Michael and David are safe.
That leaves us with The Sitch and Margaret. Oh, Louis, I think you may have possibly hosed your partner in the first week. Last season was full of weird gimmicks and themes and this season you pull out the (attempt at) funny in the very first week?? What are you trying to do? Whatever it is, you’re trying too HARD. I thought all of that fell totally flat and ruined what could have been a good dance. This was a huge risk that may have cost you. Why? Because I think Jersey Shore fans can be counted on for ONE week of voting. That’s probably all they have in them before they get bored and go on to something else – they are unlikely to be the typical viewer/voter. Margaret and Louis stood out – but not in a good way. I just don’t understand – after Niecy and Kelly does Louis feel like he has a successful, quirky niche and so is trying too hard to keep that niche going? I think you need to taylor your choreo to your partner and the circumstances, not to your past success.
Call ME crazy, but I think you have to save the crazy for the second week, when the first time fluke voters have lost the urge to vote. So, I believe tonight comes down to a battle between the Jersey Shore Fans and the GLBT Community that loves Margaret Cho. With Margaret on the losing end and going home.
What do you guys think? Have I over estimated the power of Michael and the Hoff? Or do you think the Sitch’s Jersey mates ain’t got what it takes to vote? Listen carefully tonight to what Tom says as it could be an indicator of weeks to come. Will he use the words “bottom two” and keep it straight up? Or will they pull a faux bottom two and push Michael or David – or Audrina or Brandy or Jennifer – in there to ratchet up the tension?
I can’t wait.
Dont think we’ve...
Gotta agree – Maks’ little “I’m being a good boy” nose twitch was pretty adorable
As was his funny dancing in the little intro. Very nice to see him cutting loose.
Now that I’m thinking about, I think Bolton will be safe as you say, and that the Situation is in the hot seat. However, I do think the novelty of him could keep him around this week…dunno about subsequent weeks. He’s gonna have to REALLY step it up.
Yep, Maks was actually adorable in his opening. Did you see his face during the judges comments tho?? The bad boy SO wanted to come out and play. Really bad.
I think this is a temporary situation.
You know, every time I use the word “situation” now, I feel the need to clarify.
i still think that margaret cho was really funny and really good.
Heidi, I agree with you in a lot of things, but have to disagree about Margaret and Situation.
Don’t think she is going to be on B2. He, maybe.
I’m brazilian and don’t know pretty much fanbase of Michael and David, but I think that Michael can go this week.
Uh, I don’t think that Cho has only the GLBT votes… she got a lot of people that like comedy. And we know she has potential… =]
My guess for bottom 2 tonight is Michael and Situation.
Do you think Louis planned that? It’s possible that Margaret took it upon herself to act like a clown.
I think the bottom 2 will be Margaret and the Sitch – even though I thought he did pretty well for only 5 days of practice.
I predict Audrina and Sitch for the bottom 2. I freakin’ LOVED Audrina. She was awesome for me but she was forgettable compared to others. But i split my votes for Audrina’ Brandy & Jennifer. But I will admit that I didn’t hit the votes hard this week.
I’m usually wrong about these things, but I think Margaret and Michael will be in the bottom two. I’m so disappointed in Louis. Margaret started out so strong and then for it to turn into whatever that mess was it warped into, was horrendous. There’s a paparazzi tape of Louis after last night’s show, and he says he stands by what they did, and if they get to come back next week, they’re going to do the same thing and take it even more over-the-top. So not smart.
Laurie, Margaret said it was all intentional and Louis has clearly indicated that he’s proud of what they did. I think he must be insane.
I will be really surprised if Audrina is in the bottom 2, despite being forgettable. I could certainly be wrong, because she is falling kind of in the middle of the pack.
Princess Heidi, as much as I dont want to see it happen, I say Audrina is in the bottom 2 based on fan base and the fact that dwts viewers a) dont know who she is and b) at the end of the night, I dont think she left a big impression to the main demographic of the show to vote. I hope I am wrong. And I know I am waaaaay too negative. I hope Brandy Audrina Kurt & Jennifer are safe.
As much as Jennifer was good, I wonder if she’ll knock out the Latin dances as good as the ballroom ones. We’ll see…
This one’s kind of hard to call. I wouldn’t be surprised if Michael Bolton went home because he was just kind of blah, dancing wise and personality wise. But then again, he does seem to have a huge fanbase. As for Margaret and The Situation, I’m not sure if people will like them or not. Did the audience think Margaret was funny, or were they just confused? Is The Situation a jerk, or is he charming? I feel like it could go either way with them, and I have no idea who will be going home, but I have a feeling it will be one of the three I mentioned.
I liked the show last night.
I too wonder how well Jennifer will do in Latin. Although she was very good, I could feel her age creeping in at some of the movements.
I agree that it was stupid of Tony to change his choreography. I did like the dance thought. She has potential.
BTW P. Heidi… What do you think of the fact that Derek and Tony seem to have switched partners? I think it will be interesting to see how it will play out.
Derek and Tony switched partners? Do tell! When?
Guest, every season that Derek is on the show I’m just thankful he’s there. Because one day (possibly sooner than we expect) he’s not going to be. I think all people who are fans of specific pros should start thinking that way, actually. I just want him to stay around as long as possible so I can see him dance.
But I don’t know that they actually switched partners as much as there were two good potential partners for Derek and they went with Jennifer for him because she’s so tiny and Audrina is taller. I mean, the only reason Jennifer is not a typical Derek partner is because of her age – she’s dorky like him, they seemed to get along very well, etc. Personality-wise, she seems to be a perfect match with him. I glad he didn’t get another (potentially) stiff model type as he’s certainly had his share (Shannon, Brooke, Joanna). They really seem to pair Derek up with people based on a very distinct LOOK OR a very distinct personality.
Meggie, Guest just means (I think) that typically Derek would get Audrina because she’s a beautiful, young model and Tony would get Jennifer because she’s older. I think Guest is talking about Type switch as opposed to actual partner switch.
As an avid SYTYCD fan and reader of puresytycd.com, I can’t believe my first comment is going to be here…
As a HUGE fan of The Situation (don’t throw things, please!) I don’t think the power of his fanbase can be underestimated. Mike has A LOT of fans that will be there for him and vote every week on as many phones as they have for as long as they can. Since he was savvy enough to tweet his phone number out many times before the show, even if his fans don’t tune in they’ll still vote. I fully believe he’ll be around for at least the few few weeks based solely on how devoted his fanbase truly is.
Situation Nation, y0.
Rooster, I liked Margaret Cho too. I thought their dance was very creative. Then agian, I have this great passion for the Japanese culture. I dont thnk a lot of people or the judges got their performance last night. Sad. I hope she’ll be able to stick around. She was actually better than I thought and nothing like the rehearsal pics. She looked pretty too. I felt sorry for her when she was telling about how kids use to make fun of her in Ballet class. Well, she’s showing them now.
Heidi, great numbers post. I love this. Thanks! My faves right now are (in this order) Maks and Brandy, Jennifer and Derek, and Audrina and Tony! And wow, huge kudos still to Kyle!
And there’s the problem, y0.
Phone voting? If he wants to stay in the competition, phone voting ain’t gonna cut it. It’s the online voting that is the key. I always laugh when people say “I gave all 11 votes to you!!” Amateurs. 
I hate Jersey Shore. Hate it. I think it’s stupid and insulting. That being said, I really like the Situation. I thought he would be totally rude and typical Jersey Shore but he had a pretty good personality and he made me laugh. Karina seems happy with him, too. So I hope he sticks around. I’m not saying he’ll go far, but for 5 days of practice, he was pretty… alright..
I keep saying this but I’m totally rooting for Jennifer & Derek, and Kyle & Lacey. J&D made me cry and K&L made me laugh. I loved their package: “Are you looking at my boobs?!” “Sorry. It’s like my center of focus.” Lol. Their good together, and he completely exceded my expectations that I had for him.
It’s a tough call who will leave tonight but I predict it will be Margaret with maybe Situation joining her on the bottom 2. What was Louis thinking? Jennifer was great but as other mention all will wonder how she will handle Latin if she will be a contender as she showed last night. I can already hear the Derek bashing if she knocks it out of the park next week. I have to disagree with you Nathan and don’t think Audrina will be in the bottom 2 (at least not yet) Sure, she was pretty forgettable and has less personality compared to the others but she was in the middle of the pack on the leader board. I know Tony wants to win DWTS and think that is why he changed up the routine when he found out they were going first. He wanted to make an impression and stand out for the audience and viewers. However, it didn’t work. I was disappointed in Kurt. He wasn’t bad, I guess I was expecting more as he seems really nice. Kyle was adorable and a huge surprise.
Heidi- “Amateurs” Lol. Calling takes too long. I text from every phone in the house and make a few hundred email addresses. Haha. I’m pretty sure I don’t have as many as you though.
Thanks, Vogue – As we get to a smaller number of celebs, I’ll probably get more boring with the numbers.
Oh that Tom Bergeron, always baiting us with tweets like that! I’m a little torn between thinking this is gonna be a legit “shock” elimination, and that what is “rattling” to the producers may not come as much of a surprise to us. If it truly is a shocker – I’m thinking it could the the Hoff or even Florence, since those are the two that I could see the producers categorizing as a “ratings draw” that seem like they could be at risk. If the producers are simply disappointed that a certain star who scored low last night isn’t bringing in the votes they thought he/she would, I’d say it’s still Margaret or The Situation. I think there’s only one star that, based on the producers being upset because they thought tonight’s eliminee would bring in more viewers, is not at risk – Kyle. I can’t imagine they thought he’d be a ratings juggernaut from the get-go…hence, I think he’s the only one that could be totally safe, since this seems to be such a shocker for them.
HMM! Did y’all read Tom’s tweet?
http://twitter.com/Tom_Bergeron/status/25144606534
I don’t think it’s Jennifer.
Who else? Mike The Situation, Bristol.
Bristol brought buzz….but who are her fans, really? I
INTERESTING!!!!
Would they consider the Hoff a rating draw?
You’d be surprised Ashton – thanks to two web sites and all my “assignments” I’m actually very busy on show night – that’s the part that would surprise you.
I do have quite a few, but compared to some fans I’m barely out of Amateur range.
Ah, but Tom didn’t say it was a “shock” just that they were rattled by it. Tom chooses his words very carefully in these tweets, I think. He has to or he could get in a world of hurt.
ETA: the math required for Kyle to go home would make it rather shocking for me. That’s a whole lotta votes that other people would have to get to make up that differential, and I can’t see it happening.
It was an awesome show last night and I was really impressed with most all the stars. Being a Derek fan, he and Jennifer were my favorite. They were so “in” the moment and I loved it. I’m thinking the bottom 2 is Michael and Margaret with Michael going home. I agree that Louis blew it with the routine. She did a good job with what she was given but it wasn’t right for this show. It got freakish then not enjoyable. But – not knowing her well – I would like to see more of her. Michael and Chelsie is a strange pairing and I think he was supposed to have Edyta. I think that pairing would have been much better. There is just no way there will be any chemistry. Plus, he just didn’t have it. I really like him too but afraid he will be the first to go.
Heidi- I understand.
Not from experience or anything but both of your websites are in my favorites bar, and I click them often. I know how awesome you are. 
BTW, do you or Courtney or anyone really know what The Situation said to Len last night? Then Len said something about him having “the guns but no amunition”? I missed it. :/ Then Karina said in a tweet today that The Sitch was complimenting Len’s suit but his comment was “misunderstood”.
That’s an interesting tweet from Tom. Will definitely make it more interesting to see who gets sent home (ie. who the producers thought would be a ratings draw). I’m expecting the expected: Margaret.
The good thing about DWTS is that they at least don’t lie in their results show. They use their words carefully. In America’s Got Talent this year they would bring 2 people up and then say one of you is safe and one is going home. Then, they’d open the envelope and say, you’re both going home. It was totally lame. DWTS either tells you or don’t tell you, but they don’t lie.
Hmmm..After reading Tom’s tweet, my suspects are:
Bristol, David, Sitch or Audrina, with Bristol & Sitch being strong possibilities because producers might have felt that Sitch would draw in the Jersey Shore fans but come on, those fans probably think they are too cool for DWTS. And Bristol, well, the producers thought America was super interested in seeing Sarah Palin’s tabloid daughter to bring in ratings.
But, Tom doesnt seem like he knows who is going home either…Interesting
For those interested, an E! interview with Maks on the show lastnight;
http://www.eonline.com/uberblog/marc_malkin/b201505_dwts_maksim_i_would_love_dance_with.html?cmpid=sn-000000-twitterfeed-365-topstories&utm_source=eonline&utm_medium=twitterfeed&utm_campaign=twitterfeed_topstories
Wow! Interesting tweet from Tom as I assumed Margaret would have been the logical choice. If we are going shocking like Sabrina or Shannon I would say Kyle. However other celebs I have in mind are Bristol, David, Michael or Situation.
Heidi:
Oh, trust me, The Situation had the online voting covered too! He was tweeting the website and all the ways to vote. He’s smarter than people think he is.
I still predict he stays for a while.
Just curious Lisa. Do you mean Shannon Elizabeth or Shannen Doherty. Both were shocking to me. Season 6 Marissa nor Shannen should have been in the bottom 2.
No problem Nathan! It was actually Shannen Doherty I was thinking of.
All day I’ve been asking myself “What the hell are they going to do for 2 whole hours?!” Well, now I know. It is nice, though, to see the dances again. I’m still of my original opinion – Margaret & Louis blew it. I can’t help but think that it was Margaret’s idea – don’t know why I think that. Either she or Michael will be going home tonight, I fear.
I agree pretty much with all of Heidi’s assessments. I wish, though, that no one had to go home tonight … after only 1 dance. I think everyone showed some potential and would have liked to see them dance one more time before axing them. I think the Latin round is going to do Kurt and Michael in. It’s a jive for all the Latin contenders I think, so it could be worse. Still ….. you never know. Kyle surprised me to no end.
I think The Situation or The Hoff will be eliminated tonight.
DAVID AND KYM!?!?!?!?! WOOOOOW!
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