DWTS Season 11, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers

It’s time once again to look at the numbers and guess who is likely to go home. For new readers, I started this series mainly because people were placing too high an emphasis on the scores, when really the scoring can be misleading and it often comes down to VOTES.  Now, early in the season this isn’t as true as it is later in the season.  Why?  Well, there are more people who divide up the votes and scores, and when you have one couple scoring a 24 and another couple scoring a 15 you don’t really need to do the math to figure that the couple with the 15 could be in trouble. :-)

A refresher…

Here’s how it works. Every couple gets a score between 3 and 30. Once ALL the scores have been handed out, they are added up to reach the total points awarded on a given night. That number is divided into each individual score to give that couple their percentage of the judges score.  That accounts for HALF of the couples total score, the other half being the viewer votes.

The viewer votes work the same way – the total number of votes cast is divided into the number of votes a couple got for a percentage.  The two percentages (Judges score and Viewer vote) are then added together. The couple with the lowest combined score is the couple that goes home tonight.

So, how did our couples do in terms of actual percentages??

Dancers Percentage of the Judges Scores:

Jennifer = 10.57%
Brandy = 10.13%
Kyle = 10.13%
Rick = 9.69%
Audrina = 8.37%
Kurt = 8.37%
Bristol = 7.93%
Florence = 7.93%
Michael = 7.05%
Margaret = 6.61%
Sitch = 6.61%
David = 6.61%

Margaret, Sitch and David are all 3.52 points away from Brandy and Kyle – which equates to about 35.5k votes per 1 million votes cast. So, I can easily call Jennifer, Brandy and Kyle safe. I don’t see Margaret, Sitch and David ALL getting 35.5k votes per million more than Jennifer, Brandy or Kyle.  I suppose it’s possible in Kyle’s case – and would have said it was possible before last night – but Kyle just did a great freakin’ job on his dance. I don’t think he has a huge fanbase, but his score was high enough to keep him safe, I think.

So, I think Brandy, Jennifer and Kyle are safe – and likely safe for a few weeks as all three were just amazing in different ways. I actually liked Maks’ “I’m being good” face, love Brandy, Jennifer made me freakin’ cry and Kyle was a joy to watch. But what about the others?

Rick and Cheryl – beautiful couple, although I don’t see quite the fabulocity that some of my co-bloggers do. I’m rooting for him because he seems very sweet and he sure is purdy. :-) I don’t think he’s going anywhere at all.

Audrina and Tony – pretty much what I expected; beautiful but forgettable. And, in my opinion, Tony made what could have been a very costly error. He changed up their dance a week before show time solely based on them being the first to dance. Dude, she’s good but she ain’t a trained dancer nor is she experienced at dancing live. Why on earth would you take a routine that she probably had down COLD and change it up?? What were you thinking?? By doing that, an element of nerves was added that didn’t need to be there.  I think that Tony is lucky that Margaret was so freakin ‘ bad – and that Audrina managed to pull it off with only some stiffness and lack of fire.  That could have been a disaster.  I still wonder if she wouldn’t have been much better on their old routine.

Kurt and Anna – disappointing. Pretty stiff. But they should be safe on the football vote for a while. Until the football vote gets beat by the basketball vote. :-)

Bristol and Mark – she was not good, but she’s also not a performer or athlete or remotely used to being on TV in this setting. She didn’t totally suck. I was rooting for her – she’s just a kid, after all. I gotta give it up to Mark Ballas, because he was totally there for her the whole way through. Kinda wrapped himself around her like a security blanket. Very sweet.  I think she’s safe based on the conservative vote.

Florence and Corky – Don’t know about these two. I went into this thinking she would go a long way based on the nostalgia vote, but there is a hell of a lot of nostalgia floating around the ball room these days, and a lot of characters. She might be safe for 2 more weeks.

Now we get to the bottom four who were just varying degrees of awful. Out of this, Michael has a slight leg up on his competition. He’s 0.44% ahead of them in the Judges scores, which equates to about 4,400 votes per 1 million votes cast. So the question is (providing I’m right about the top 8 of course), can Margaret, David AND the Sitch ALL get 4,400 more votes per 1 million cast such that he goes home?  I don’t think so. I think David and Michael both have fanbases that intersect the viewers voting on this show. I think Michael and David are safe.

That leaves us with The Sitch and Margaret.  Oh, Louis, I think you may have possibly hosed your partner in the first week. Last season was full of weird gimmicks and themes and this season you pull out the (attempt at) funny in the very first week?? What are you trying to do? Whatever it is, you’re trying too HARD. I thought all of that fell totally flat and ruined what could have been a good dance. This was a huge risk that may have cost you. Why? Because I think Jersey Shore fans can be counted on for ONE week of voting. That’s probably all they have in them before they get bored and go on to something else – they are unlikely to be the typical viewer/voter.  Margaret and Louis stood out – but not in a good way.  I just don’t understand – after Niecy and Kelly does Louis feel like he has a successful, quirky niche and so is trying too hard to keep that niche going? I think you need to taylor your choreo to your partner and the circumstances, not to your past success.

Call ME crazy, but I think you have to save the crazy for the second week, when the first time fluke voters have lost the urge to vote. So, I believe tonight comes down to a battle between the Jersey Shore Fans and the GLBT Community that loves Margaret Cho. With Margaret on the losing end and going home.

What do you guys think? Have I over estimated the power of Michael and the Hoff? Or do you think the Sitch’s Jersey mates ain’t got what it takes to vote?  Listen carefully tonight to what Tom says as it could be an indicator of weeks to come.  Will he use the words “bottom two” and keep it straight up? Or will they pull a faux bottom two and push Michael or David – or Audrina or Brandy or Jennifer – in there to ratchet up the tension?

I can’t wait. :-)