I have to say – this is probably the most overall likeable cast that they’ve maybe ever had. There is not one single person on this show that I don’t like and enjoy – albeit in different ways. Seriously – I love all of them in different ways. It’s also a very good competitive season, which will make things VERY interesting about 2 weeks down the road. That said, I’m not quite ready to call it quits on Michael Bolton just yet. We will see. But here’s how the numbers stack up. If you want a refresher on how they determine who goes home, visit last week’s Season 11 inaugural post.
The judges really tried to separate the men from the boys last night – but still seeming to try to keep the race competitive. I hate when they do that. I don’t know if it’s intentional or just accidental. I thought there was some underscoring going on. I don’t think there was any real *over* scoring, but a couple couples definitely deserved higher scores, Rick and Cheryl being one, Jennifer and Derek being another. And I would NOT have been upset if Audrina and Tony had gotten a point or two higher, even though it would have ruined that stroke of sheer brilliance that requires Tony wax his legs. Genius, pure and simple. Word to the wise, be nice to the producers at all times or they will whip out footage that you will live to regret. So, how did our couples do?
The Judges Scores and the corresponding percentage of points awarded:
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Just looking at that table, the natural assumption is that Michael is going home. But not so fast. Yes, I thought this about David and we know how that turned out, but I really believe that Michael has a solid, voting fanbase – and he’s not burned any bridges or damaged his own rep the way David has. Will it be enough for Michael to stay around? Well, I kind of doubt it, but I think it could be close.
I think that the top 7 couples shown above are likely safe. Jennifer performed amazingly well, doing what was easily the most difficult Jive choreography of the night and if YouTube views and twitter chatter are anything to go by, she’s building (or rebuilding) a pretty solid fanbase of her own. While that comes with it’s own problems (ie, people assuming she’s safe) I don’t think that is a concern for another week or two yet.
Audrina did what was easily, and far and away, the best quickstep of the night and easily the number 2 dance of the night. I think she and Jennifer were both underscored by a point or two. I think she’s safe tonight and probably for another few weeks. But she doesn’t have the excitement factor that Kyle does, and has probably an even smaller fanbase. She’s very beautiful, but she risks being boring – or too quiet might be a better word. The leg waxing thing, as painful as it will be for Tony, will help them tremendously. For now. Her dress was awfully similar to Melissa’s dress, with the webbing at the top. But then Jennifer’s was similar to Nicole’s – weird.
Kyle – I counted this guy out before the seasons started and boy, was I WRONG! This kid is just plain delightful. Will he make the final four?? Well, I don’t know. I’m still inclined to say no, if only because of the powerhouse fanbases that he’s up against. He could build a fanbase in the coming weeks though.
Ah, Bristol. I can’t believe it but I really like this girl. But, despite what some righty blogs are saying, she’s unlikely to make the final four. She did a good job last night, but she’s definitely not up to the calibur of Jennifer, Audrina, Kyle, Rick and Brandy. She’s not a performer, and I think Sarah’s followers will only take her so far. I don’t think that that she earned the 22 she was given, especially not when compared to Rick Fox. But, anyway, Bristol is safe for a bit yet.
Rick-Brandy-Kurt, also known as the 21 club. One of these pairs does not belong in this group and that would be Rick and Cheryl. I think that Rick should have at least changed places with Bristol, he maybe even should have had a 23. He did a great job. Brandy was very disappointing and this is an example of why I’m always on a roller coaster with Maks – his choreography last night was just not up to par and to top it off, they both seemed either off time or out of sorts. No, I’m not talking about their squabbling (people, she was joking!) – I actually thought that was hilarious. GO Brandy!! But the speed kept changing, slow to fast to slow and there were lots of rest periods built in. Lots of breaks and they just weren’t together. Very strange – I had to watch it again to try to figure out what the problem was. But in any case, none of these three are going anywhere. Kurt? He and Anna looked adorable but their dance made no impression on me.
Now here’s where it gets interesting. The bottom four score getters. Hmmm…I’m going to say that, based on goober charm, the Situation is safe. He didn’t do a good dance, but he’s clearly TRYING and he’s oddly charming. People, don’t give me any crap about Jersey Shore (or The Hills for that matter) being hit shows guaranteeing their safety – please. These shows are popular, but they are not the ratings powerhouses you would like to believe. They get great ratings – for MTV or whatever channel they are on. But this audience isn’t likely to vote in the same numbers as the main DWTS audience. HOWEVER, both Audrina and The Situation will likely stick around for a while because SHE can dance and he’s a charming goober.
That leaves us with Michael, Margaret and Florence. My gut instinct is to call Michael out just because they were SO harsh on the scoring – and the dance wasn’t good. At all. They clearly want him gone, IMO. Margaret did a much better dance than last week, and Florence made no impact but she didn’t suck. But I think he has a larger fanbase than Margaret and Florence – is it big enough?? Well, let’s go back to the numbers.
Michael versus Florence – Michael needs 32k more votes per 1 Million votes cast to beat Florence
Michael versus Margaret – Michael needs 27.2k more votes per 1 Million votes cast to beat Margaret
Conversely, to touch anyone in the top 3 Michael needs at least 45.3k more votes per million. I definitely don’t see that happening. But what about Margaret and Florence?? He only has to beat one of the in order to stay and if he’s going to beat anyone it will likely be Margaret. Will Michael get 27.2k more votes per million than Margaret?? I have no freakin’ clue. I’m going to say no. You heard it here first.