Dancing with the Stars 11, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers
I’m going to complain right off the bat. Was I hearing things or did Tom say “Accoustic Night” and “TV night”….and how many more freakin’ theme nights are we going to have? Just Dance, damn it.
Okay, with that out of the way I will say that for the most part, I enjoyed Story night. There are a few people I’m getting tired of and a few I really genuinely like, although I don’t think they’re good dancers. But let’s talk about numbers. As regular readers know, every week I figure out what it will take for someone to stay and how big the risk is for others.
Here’s how it works: The judges give everyone a score. All the scores handed out are added up to a total. That total is then divided into an individual couples score to determine their percentage of the judges scores. The voting goes the same way. Total number of votes cast is added up and divided into the votes for a given couple to determine their percentage of the vote. The two percentages are added together. The couple with the lowest combined total goes home. Of course, this makes the judges scores misleading. You might think someone who has 2 judges points more than another person makes them safe – but no. When there are a large number of couples, and a pretty decent range of scores, it’s easier to narrow down who goes home because the math does work in the first place couples favor. Frighteningly enough, the scores are getting closer (although in many cases they shouldn’t be). But there is still enough disparity to narrow it down to a few “in danger” couples. So, what are those percentages?
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Place | Celebrity | Score | Percentage |
1. | Audrina | 26 | 11.76 |
2. | Jennifer | 24 | 10.86 |
3. | Brandy | 24 | 10.86 |
4. | Rick | 24 | 10.86 |
5. | Kyle | 23 | 10.41 |
6. | Kurt | 23 | 10.41 |
7. | The Sitch | 20 | 9.05 |
8. | Florence | 20 | 9.05 |
9. | Bristol | 19 | 8.6 |
10. | Margaret | 18 | 8.14 |
Last week, we saw Jennifer under scored by 2 points, IMO. Well, this week I think she gets the correct score, but Audrina is OVER scored by 2 points. Beautiful dance from Audrina, and a charming dance from Jennifer, but there is no way that Audrina was 2 points better. Nope, not even with a boo boo from Jennifer.
I would also knock a point off Brandy for having wimpy arms, and a couple points off Kyle for having NO footwork at all. Not to mention the frat boy humor is starting to wear very thin. Yer wearing me out, Kyle – tone it down and try dancing. The request for a new song doesn’t bother me – what bothers me is that the pros can’t pick their own music to begin with, so if they want to demand a new song, go for it. If people could pick their own music, we wouldn’t have gotten the bizarre dance from The Sitch – but then again we also wouldn’t have gotten that brilliant 50’s Paso out of Derek last season. So I guess there are pros and cons. 🙂
Anyway, despite my gripes with the scores, they are what they are and we have to live with them. Or die with them, as the case may be. 🙂 This week, it’s a four way race for last place between Marge, Bristol, The Sitch and Florence. Who will go home? I’m betting Margaret, but I’ve been wrong before and I’ll be wrong again.
Here’s what it takes for Margaret to STAY on the show:
Marge needs approximately 4,550 more votes per 1 million votes cast to pass Bristol
OR
Marge needs approximately 9,100 more votes per 1 million votes cast to pass either Sitch OR Florence
What are the odds of any of these scenarios happening? I don’t see her getting the votes to beat Bristol or The Situation, but I could see her getting the votes to beat Florence. Remember, she only has to get that many more votes than ONE of them in order to stay on the show.
What would it take for a “shocking” elimination?? In this case I think it would be shocking for any of those with a score of 24 or higher to get sent packing. Is this a possibility? Well, it’s always possible. Kyle and Audrina started this thing with two of the smallest fanbases, but their dancing is either good (Audrina) or they have personality out the wazoo (Kyle). Here’s what it would take, numbers-wise for Audrina and Kyle to be in danger – not only would every single other contestant have to get the requisite votes to close the gap created by Audrina’s higher score, but Marge would have to get 36,200 more votes than her per 1 million votes cast. No way in hell. Sorry Marge.
Kyle, with a score of 23 – if all the contestants below him in score close the gap with more votes AND Marge gets 22,625 more votes than him per 1 million votes cast, he would go home. Again, no way in hell. Just increase the number of more votes per 1 million votes cast to 27,165 and you have what it would take for Marge to beat either Jennifer, Rick or Brandy – and I honestly don’t see it happening for them because it would also mean that everyone else below them in score got enough votes to close the gap and then some. Nope.
What does all this mean? Well, since we don’t know how the actual voting is going, and we can only go off anecdotal evidence it’s all really playing the odds using numbers. What are the odds that Margaret can get the required number of votes to close the gap and surpass any of the others she’s competing against? I keep coming back to Florence as the only one that she has a real shot of beating.
So who’s it going to be? Margaret or Florence?? Or are my odds way off on someone else and how they are doing vote-wise? Could the Situation have worn out his welcome?? Is Bristol’s conservative backing weaker than I think?
I’m going to say Margaret will be leaving us. We will see. 🙂
i get that you are a derek hough fan, but why are he and jennifer your only reference point. their dance this week was just ok. they were a little underscored last week and had the best dance. however, this week i feel they had the weakest samba except for Miss Cho of course. i will agree and say it is probably time for Miss Cho to leave the show.
People who have favorites are going to use them as a reference point – I don’t know why that’s hard for you to understand. I’m sure you have a favorite that biases you. That’s life.
Great post! Looking at the numbers is very intersting. I hope the show starts telling us the real bottom 2 each week so we can really know who has the support and who doesn’t. I think the lowest 4 with the judges all could have strong votes with Flo bieng so sweet, Margaret and Bristol being somewhat political, and Mike having the producers seemingly pushing for him to stick around a few more weeks.
I guess I would have to say Flo will leave, just because I don’t see there being many Brady power voters, even though she was very sweet this week. I think having a message will save Margaret for anther week.
I’m really impressed with Audrina. It’s really hard for someone whose nickname is ceiling-eyes y’all. LOL! She deserved first place this week.
Kurt does nothing for me. he’s just a number, but judges love their athletes…so. Whatever!!!
I liked Rick/Cheryl dance, but Rick didn’t dance much.
Jennifer’s dance was scored just about right. It was good but not that good.
Yeah, I’m really liking Audrina – and I feel guilty every time I laugh like a loon at the phrase “ceiling eyes”. 🙂 It’s SO appropriate and it just cracks me up. Her only drawback, really, is Tony. I’m still hung up on him acting like a baby in the press last season.
What the diffrence is usally up to about week 5 its more of a popularity contest ” Cough ” Kate Gosselin ” Cough ” and ” Coughs for the opposite reason ” Shannen Doherty ” cough “. Not this season! Man i probably woulda guessed Micheal Bolton woulda had a big enough fanbase to carry him past week 2 ( Given its hard to get passed a twelve but it aint un-heard of like Buzz Aldrin, Master P, etc have servived a 12, Heck Steve Wozniak got called safe on a 10! ) And i would of NEVER guessed the The Hoff woulda gotten booted on Wk 1!!! But sho enough, The trend in season 11 SO FAR has been if u at the b.ttom u goin home….So if the trend continues…..Good Ridance…umm….. i mean… Bye Cho and Louis. 😛 lol!
Oh, I love these “numbers” posts. They are so interesting. Good job Heidi. Here’s how I would have ranked them and what I would have given them each for a judges score last night;
1. Audrina and Tony – 9
2. Brandy and Maks – 9
3. Lacy and Kyle -8
4. Cheryl and Rick – 8
5. Jennifer and Derek – 8
6. Kurt and Anna – 7
7. Flo and Corky – 6 (almost a 5 but I’ll give them the benifit of the doubt because this was the most heartfelt dance of the night. You could feel every ounce of Flo’s heart in this)
8. The Sitch and Karina – 6
(almost a 5 but I’ll give them the benifit of the doubt because this was the most creative, daring, and different dance of the night. Lady Gaga would have loved it, lol)
9. Margaret and Louis – 4
10. Bristol and Mark – 3
The more I mull over it, the more I just don’t see Margaret getting the boot – as much as I think she deserves to. She’s one of those people that seems to get safer the trainwreckier she gets – kinda like Kate last season. The minute Kate actually seemed to improve a bit, she got sent home. It was as if the Vote For the Worst folks (who are also backing Margaret this season) jumped ship at the first sign of improvement. I think her chances of getting sent home were actually greater last week than they are this week – last week she was just unmemorable. Luckily for her, Bolton was downright awful, so she got a reprieve – had Michael actually done ok, I think we would have seen Margaret voted off.
Flo is just running the risk of being totally boring, which I think is more dangerous on this show than being awesomely bad. If they actually annouce the real bottom 2 tonight (doubtful), I think Bristol could be there with her, but it would ultimately be Flo leaving us. I’m thinking (and hoping) The Sitch is safe, just due to his lovable dorkitude, and echoing your sentiments, Heidi – I find it hard to fathom that either Flo or Margaret could topple anyone scoring 23 or higher.
I’m starting to like Audrina as well – she seems like a very calm, sweet girl who actually has some degree of skill. But the “ceiling eyes” really bother me – she even has them sometimes when she’s talking. Makes me wonder if she’s just one of those people whose eyes don’t really emote a lot. Maybe she’ll excel with a more passionate dance – hopefully the A. tango, because I think it’ll give her a better opportunity to emote.
@Voug What ur problem with Bristol. She wasnt that bad the cho was way worse. No offense tho! Just gosh lol 😀
Zack, it’s ok. If we all agreed on everything, the world would be a boring place. 😉 I thought Bristol was stiff as a board last night and hardly even moving. Her heart wasn’t in it. Both story lines were weak. The only difference really was Margaret’s heart was in it and she was atleast MOVING. lol I really don’t think Bristol wants to be there anymore from this point on with the way she acted last night. So, why not give her her wish. But, that’s just my opinion.
It’s entirely possible, Vogue, that my expectations for Brandy were too high….but I just wasn’t seeing what was so great about her dance last night. It just seemed too weak. But I will say that Maks looked hot – and I usually don’t find him attractive.
Courtney, if Audrina gets the A. Tango, she better emote well or it will be the kiss of death. For that matter, either the Tango or the Rumba has the potential to really draw attention to her weak point, which is her apparent lack of emotion. She could be in for it with the judges. Unless of course she’s not getting the votes and they don’t want her to go home. Which could explain the 2 9’s last night, actually. I just don’t think it was a dance worthy of TWO of them.
I find Audrina’s dancing totally lackluster and boring, BUT I really like the fact that she listens to her pro and doesn’t talk back to the judges. She seems like a really nice person. I just think she’s not a dynamo on the dance floor.
@Carlie – Ditto about Audrina – I think part of her appeal is that she’s just a very sweet girl who listens to both Tony & the judges without any attitude or backtalk. She does seem to want to improve and do well – I’m just not sure she has a whole lot of natural talent to draw from.
@Heidi – Agreed about both dances – Audrina is going to have to bring it emotionally either way. However, I think she’d fare better with an A. tango…hell, I think all of the couples would fare better with the tango than the rumba, since the latter seems to rely more heavily on both technique and emotion to be successful. I think I’ve mentioned it before, but the A. tango seems to be a dance that generally gets good scores and critiques, for whatever reason. Maybe the novelty of it? There’s really no other dance quite like it, in terms of hold, steps, and the fact that lifts are allowed. Unfortunately, since she’s gotten 2 ballroom dances in a row so far, I think she’ll end up with a rumba (since they seem to classify A. tango as as “ballroom” dance, even though I think it feels the most “Latin” of the ballroom dances) and I’m afraid it may expose her weakness in channeling the emotions of a dance…as well as any technical weakeness she might have.
Audrina “overscored”? I think not! She finally got a score she deserves! Derek and Jenn underscored maybe by a point or two. But Audrina and Tony definitely danced the best waltz while Jenn and Derek danced the best Samba.
Great post! I think it either is going to be Margaret or Florence that will be eliminated tonight. It will be sad to see Florence go only because she is living a dream being on the show and her package last night about her late husband was sweet. However, it is the nature of the show. Once we get pass Situation, Bristol, and Margaret or Florence, the show is going to get really interesting and turn more on fan base who makes it each week and to the finals.
Heidi- You make a good observation about Audrina. Next week being that it is acoustic Rumba or A. Tango, its going to be a tough week for her since she lacks emotions. I come to like her and think she is nice but that is one of the things that bothers me about her.
Kurt is not one of the best dancers on the show, but he is one of my favorites for a simple reason. Every time I see him start to learn a dance for the very first time, it looks terrible and I’m sure it’s going to be a complete disaster. And then somehow by show day he pulls off something pretty decent and executes it well. Just a very hard worker who listens to his partner and doesn’t argue!
I didn’t get the storyline of Margaret and Louis. It just looked like they were dancing with very colorful outfits.
Jennifer and Kurt were underscored. I liked Audrina and Tony’s dance, the story was clear and I felt it was heartwarming. I thought Rick was better last week with his jive than in the samba.
@Buttercup – I really like Kurt and Anna’s relationship. It’s obvious he’s trying hard and that they respect each other.
There’s a lot of hard workers who just do basically the same thing every week. For me that’s Kurt. I saw no improvement in the posture, mechanical arm motions, very little connection with Anna, rather pedantic choreography, it was all so dull.
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