Dancing with the Stars 11, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers

I’m going to complain right off the bat. Was I hearing things or did Tom say “Accoustic Night” and “TV night”….and how many more freakin’ theme nights are we going to have? Just Dance, damn it.

Okay, with that out of the way I will say that for the most part, I enjoyed Story night. There are a few people I’m getting tired of and a few I really genuinely like, although I don’t think they’re good dancers. But let’s talk about numbers. As regular readers know, every week I figure out what it will take for someone to stay and how big the risk is for others.

Here’s how it works: The judges give everyone a score. All the scores handed out are added up to a total. That total is then divided into an individual couples score to determine their percentage of the judges scores. The voting goes the same way. Total number of votes cast is added up and divided into the votes for a given couple to determine their percentage of the vote. The two percentages are added together. The couple with the lowest combined total goes home. Of course, this makes the judges scores misleading. You might think someone who has 2 judges points more than another person makes them safe – but no. When there are a large number of couples, and a pretty decent range of scores, it’s easier to narrow down who goes home because the math does work in the first place couples favor. Frighteningly enough, the scores are getting closer (although in many cases they shouldn’t be). But there is still enough disparity to narrow it down to a few “in danger” couples. So, what are those percentages?

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Audrina 26 11.76
2. Jennifer 24 10.86
3. Brandy 24 10.86
4. Rick 24 10.86
5. Kyle 23 10.41
6. Kurt 23 10.41
7. The Sitch 20 9.05
8. Florence 20 9.05
9. Bristol 19 8.6
10. Margaret 18 8.14

Last week, we saw Jennifer under scored by 2 points, IMO. Well, this week I think she gets the correct score, but Audrina is OVER scored by 2 points. Beautiful dance from Audrina, and a charming dance from Jennifer, but there is no way that Audrina was 2 points better. Nope, not even with a boo boo from Jennifer.

I would also knock a point off Brandy for having wimpy arms, and a couple points off Kyle for having NO footwork at all. Not to mention the frat boy humor is starting to wear very thin. Yer wearing me out, Kyle – tone it down and try dancing. The request for a new song doesn’t bother me – what bothers me is that the pros can’t pick their own music to begin with, so if they want to demand a new song, go for it. If people could pick their own music, we wouldn’t have gotten the bizarre dance from The Sitch – but then again we also wouldn’t have gotten that brilliant 50’s Paso out of Derek last season. So I guess there are pros and cons. :-)

Anyway, despite my gripes with the scores, they are what they are and we have to live with them. Or die with them, as the case may be. :-) This week, it’s a four way race for last place between Marge, Bristol, The Sitch and Florence. Who will go home? I’m betting Margaret, but I’ve been wrong before and I’ll be wrong again.

Here’s what it takes for Margaret to STAY on the show:
Marge needs approximately 4,550 more votes per 1 million votes cast to pass Bristol
OR
Marge needs approximately 9,100 more votes per 1 million votes cast to pass either Sitch OR Florence

What are the odds of any of these scenarios happening? I don’t see her getting the votes to beat Bristol or The Situation, but I could see her getting the votes to beat Florence. Remember, she only has to get that many more votes than ONE of them in order to stay on the show.

What would it take for a “shocking” elimination?? In this case I think it would be shocking for any of those with a score of 24 or higher to get sent packing. Is this a possibility? Well, it’s always possible. Kyle and Audrina started this thing with two of the smallest fanbases, but their dancing is either good (Audrina) or they have personality out the wazoo (Kyle). Here’s what it would take, numbers-wise for Audrina and Kyle to be in danger – not only would every single other contestant have to get the requisite votes to close the gap created by Audrina’s higher score, but Marge would have to get 36,200 more votes than her per 1 million votes cast. No way in hell. Sorry Marge.

Kyle, with a score of 23 – if all the contestants below him in score close the gap with more votes AND Marge gets 22,625 more votes than him per 1 million votes cast, he would go home. Again, no way in hell. Just increase the number of more votes per 1 million votes cast to 27,165 and you have what it would take for Marge to beat either Jennifer, Rick or Brandy – and I honestly don’t see it happening for them because it would also mean that everyone else below them in score got enough votes to close the gap and then some. Nope.

What does all this mean? Well, since we don’t know how the actual voting is going, and we can only go off anecdotal evidence it’s all really playing the odds using numbers. What are the odds that Margaret can get the required number of votes to close the gap and surpass any of the others she’s competing against? I keep coming back to Florence as the only one that she has a real shot of beating.

So who’s it going to be? Margaret or Florence?? Or are my odds way off on someone else and how they are doing vote-wise? Could the Situation have worn out his welcome?? Is Bristol’s conservative backing weaker than I think?

I’m going to say Margaret will be leaving us. We will see. :-)