DWTS 11, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers

Acoustic in the Round, eh? Yeah, not totally impressed by that. The stage was cool, in my opinion. I don’t give a rat’s ass if it limits the couples – challenge is good and I think that the upper tier celebs and their pros (again, my opinion) worked with that challenge just fine. The “acoustic” idea was just silly as it was executed. I’ve never seen a nearly full orchestra referred to as “acoustic” before. But what really bugs me is Tom saying that next week is “TV Week” followed by “Rock Night”. What the hell people? Why do you have to have a theme every week now?? Why not just let the couples dance? How’s that for a novel idea??

Then again, I guess when you realize that a season with no real ringers results in generally poor dancing – or at least, unexciting dancing – you best have a gimmick of some sort. Kinda like the pros who realized they really need to do something to make a statement or distract from a poor performance. Can’t say I blame them, really. At some point they have to realize they aren’t going to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear.  The middle of the packer’s failed to impress – really getting quite tired of Kyle and his antics. It wears a person out.

Our “sow’s ear” for the night had to be the Situation (sorry Courtney) and to a lesser extent Bristol and Florence. And it’s really a shame that the person I like most out of the three got the lowest score. The question is, can he overcome that low score with votes? It comes down, essentially, to a battle between the right wing, the Jersey Shore Fans and the Brady Bunch lovers.

The Percentages of Judges Scores Awarded:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Jennifer 56 15.64
2. Brandy 48 13.41
3. Audrina 46 12.85
4. Kyle 40 11.17
5. Rick 39 10.89
6. Florence 35 9.78
7. Kurt 34 9.5
8. Bristol 32 8.94
9. The Sitch 28 7.82

It’s a very safe bet to call Jennifer, Brandy and Audrina safe for tonight. Why some of you are arguing over second place is beyond me – with these kinds of number, it simply shouldn’t matter. Two points out of sixty is NOTHING. Mathematically speaking, anyway. I thought all three women did a great job, although I do agree with the judges comments. I thought Audrina looked pretty vacant tonight. Brandy was much improved although there is still something funky going on there that I can’t put my finger on. Maks was HILARIOUS in their package…and I’ll save the rest of my comments for the Cheesecake. :-)

Kyle and Rick, while a LONG way out of 3rd place with 40 and 39, respectively, are also a pretty safe distance from the bottom of the pack. I’m going to bet they are safe. Just for fun, I will tell you that Kyle would have to get 44,700 more votes per million votes cast than Jennifer to find himself in first place overall.

That leads us to this week’s basement dwellers: Kurt, Florence, Bristol and The Sitch. Who’s going to go home? This is a much tougher call this week, despite the double scoring. I think it’s pretty easy to call Kurt safe because ALL of the following would have to happen, for him to go home:

Sitch gets 56,000 more votes than Kurt per 1 million votes cast;
Bristol gets 5,600 more votes than Kurt per 1 million votes cast; and
Kurt DOESN’T get 2,800 more votes than Flo per 1 million votes cast.

I honestly don’t see all three of those thing happening. Watch Bergeron’s twitter – if he starts talking “shocking elimination” this would likely be the one.

Okay, that leaves us with Florence, Bristol and The Situation. The Sitch, as the lowest scored person, only needs to beat one person in votes and here it is in a nutshell:

Sitch needs 11,200 more votes than Bristol per 1 million votes cast to be safe.

Do you think he can do it?? That’s a lot of votes. How popular is this guy? Now, just beating Bristol’s number doesn’t mean she’s the one who goes home. They could both get more votes than Florence. For Florence to go home instead of either the Sitch or Bristol, ALL of the following would have to happen:

Sitch gets 19,600 more votes than Florence per 1 million votes cast;
Bristol gets 8,400 more votes than Florence per 1 million votes cast; AND
Kurt gets 2,800 more votes than Flo per 1 million votes cast.

I think that last one is a given, but I included it anyway. Again, you see why I have trouble picking someone to go home tonight. I just don’t think it’s an open and shut case. Basically, if the Sitch doesn’t pick up 11,200 more votes per million than Bristol he’s gone, if he does and all other things remain the same, Bristol is gone.

Okay – going out on a limb to make a call. I’m going to call Florence safe, along with Kurt. Then I’m going to bet that the Sitch doesn’t pull in the votes he need to overtake anyone. The Sitch goes home. This is NOT what I want – I would be fine with either Florence or Bristol going home, but I think those ladies have another week in them. Obviously, one of them has TWO weeks – but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. :-)