DWTS Season 11, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

Ahhh…time for some math. Every week it gets a bit trickier to predict. Several people have noted that, so far this season, the low score goes home. Now, is that because there’s no real ringers, or is it that the judges have finally figured out how to protect the good dancers from the big personalities with poor technique?? I’m tempted to go with the latter, but who knows? Every time I try to figure out how they’re playing with the scores, I come to the inescapable fact that Bristol really is NOT a good dancer and Kyle really doesn’t have much technique – so maybe they’re getting the bottom ones right in any case and aren’t soft pedaling it anymore. I don’t think that Florence deserved a 21, however, and that 21 may have saved her to dance next week. I also don’t think that Audrina deserved a 23 – but she certainly is a better dancer than Kyle, Bristol and Florence, so…is giving her a 23 so wrong? Particularly since the band and the singers screwed up.

Anyway, you can visit my inaugural post on this subject to see how the bottom two are determined – not that we’ve seen an actual bottom two yet, but you get my drift. Here’s how our celebs ranked this week:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Brandy 27 14.84
2. Jennifer 25 13.74
3. Kurt 24 13.19
4. Rick 24 13.19
5. Audrina 23 12.64
6. Florence 21 11.54
7. Kyle 20 10.99
8. Bristol 18 9.89

Right out of the gate I’m going to call Brandy, Jennifer, Kurt and Rick safe – they all have a score of 24 or higher and the bottom score getters would all have to get serious votes to catch them. For example, for Kurt or Rick to be eliminated, ALL of the following would have to happen:

-Bristol would have to get 33k more votes per 1 million votes cast;
-Kyle would have to get 22k more votes per 1 million votes cast;
-Florence would have to get 16,500 more votes per 1 million votes cast, and;
-Audrina would have to get 5,500 more votes per 1 million votes cast.

That is assuming, of course, that neither Brandy nor Jennifer are getting beat badly by Kurt or Rick in the votes. For either Brandy or Jennifer to be eliminated, both Rick and Kurt would have to be getting at least 5,500 more votes per 1 million votes cast than them PLUS all of the above folks would have to get those votes to beat Rick and Kurt PLUS an additional 5,500. That’s a LOT of votes and it only takes one person not making that for everyone else to be safe. So, it comes down to Bristol, really.

As the low score getter, Bristol needs to do ONE of the following to be safe:

-Get 11,000 more votes than Kyle per 1 million votes cast;
-If Kyle is whupping her in votes, then she needs 16,500 more votes than Florence per 1 million cast;
-If she can’t get that many more votes than Kyle or Florence, then she would have to get 27,500 more votes than Audrina per 1 million cast.

And the numbers just go up from there. So, is Bristol beating Kyle, Florence or Audrina?? You know, if it weren’t for that monkey suit, I would say that any of those would be possible. As it stands, I’m really not sure. So, on to further discussion…

Here’s my problem – while Audrina had a respectable score last night, she danced in the middle of the pack, not at the top of the hour and it was NOT a standout dance. Audrina NEEDS to have a stellar dance because she’s not got the personality of Kyle, the nostalgic fanbase of Florence Henderson or the conservative bloc that Bristol probably has behind her. Alaska’s population isn’t that big, but they and their conservative counterparts are highly motivated. So, I wonder – just how safe is Audrina?? For her to be eliminated, ALL of the following would have to happen:

-Bristol would have to get 27,500 more votes than Audrina per 1 million cast;
-Kyle would have to get 16,500 more votes than Audrina per 1 million cast; AND
-Florence would have to get 11,000 more votes than Audrina per 1 million votes cast.

This is assuming that all those with higher scores are either getting the same or more votes than her, which is probably a safe bet. I come back to Bristol again. I think that Kyle could be beating Audrina, and possibly Florence what with the Brady Bunch (and Barry Williams) Factor. Bristol?? I keep getting hung up on Bristol. That’s a lot of votes she needs to surpass Audrina.

Boy oh boy – my brain keeps telling me that Audrina is in danger. Here’s why: I remember Bristol’s dance because of the monkey suits. I remember Florence because of Barry Williams and the song. And I remember Kyle because he’s KYLE and he’s been charming the pants off everyone for a couple weeks now. I think he’ll last until 5th place! But I don’t have any clear recollection of what Audrina did last night, other than the fact that her movements all seemed to stop short. There was no drama, no WOW, no…anything. And will the audience recognize that the band kinda hosed her and Tony? I doubt it.

I guess I have to make a prediction, don’t I? Time to quit stalling. I’m going to say that Bristol goes home, but that Audrina is in the bottom 2 – and that they call it a bottom 2. Why? Because Audrina is a better dancer than that and they’ll want to scare the audience into voting next week.

Now…tell me why I’m wrong, before the show proves me wrong. :-)