Welcome to my stream of consciousness “Dancing by the Numbers” post. Forgive me in advance if I ramble. I have to say I was very disappointed in Rock night on DWTS. No, not just because Derek and Jennifer screwed up the end of their dance, although that didn’t help. I found myself with a general feeling of malaise last night after the show. Since then, I’ve been thinking about what the problem could be. Frankly, I keep coming back to the fact that, other than Derek and Maks both having great asses, there is no such thing as a good “theme” night. If they would have a theme about male pro butts in those nice tight pants that would be a theme I could get behind. Pardon the expression. :-) No, really – Derek, Maks…well done.
Anyway, I think that all the themes are detracting from plain old dancing. WTF happened to just dancing? Derek, the guy who sticks up for the producers on a regular basis – because that’s who he is – says that the themes challenge him. Clearly, that is true – 50’s Paso and futuristic paso are the evidence for it. But dang. Those two stellar dances resulted from a simple “Era” night where everyone was handed a decade. Fine. All the rest of this crap – Rock Night, TV Theme Night, Story Night, guest celebrity judges (coming soon to a Ballroom near you) – give it a fucking rest already. Someone commented on a previous post that these theme nights may be good for ratings *right now* but in the long run it will have a negative impact on the show. I have to agree.
Really, who cares about a Paso when Rick Fox has really cool hair and Brandy is wearing crazy silver half skirt half pants? And the Band gets to play cool, contemporary music? And they have cool MTV scaffolding?? Tango? What Tango?? I was too busy wondering why they ripped up the cool black floor 30 minutes before show time. :::rolls eyes:::
You know it’s a bad frickin’ sign when the highlight of the show is the Top 10 dances of all time. Hey, between the Houghs and Cheryl Burke? Seven out of ten dances. Sounds about right to me. :-) And I totally called “Save a Horse” as number 1, although watching them all back to back I still believe that dance and Derek’s 50’s Paso should have switched places. Eh, whatever – top ten dances out of a thousand is pretty freaking cool. I also wasn’t that impressed with Apolo and Julianne’s Samba – but the Apolo/Julianne voting bloc is still going strong. The whole idea would be a lot better if they allowed ONE vote per email address. Period. I think that would have knocked one of Julianne’s dances out and pulled one of someone else’s in – like Kristi Yamaguchi maybe.
So, who’s going home? I have no frickin’ clue. Not a one. I don’t think there is any way to predict it and I don’t think anyone is actually safe. I think the closest to being safe is Brandy, of course, but nothing would shock me at this point. You wanna know why? Because nights like last night throw some fans into a tizzy and cause other fans to be complacent. I think that Jennifer will be safe because the judges were “mean” to her AND they had her in jeopardy last week. I think her fans probably went nuts on the voting. I think it’s possible the same is true for Kurt. What happens if Kurt and Jennifer come up? Kyle and Audrina become “at risk”. Hell, maybe even Bristol could leave BECAUSE she got a better score than ever. Like I said, complacency. ANYway, the scores at night’s end:
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Once you look at it in a list like that, a lot becomes clearer. A little. :-) Basically, we have Kurt in the basement, four people with essentially the same score (or close enough for govt. work) and Brandy at the top. What a nice little bell shaped curve. Unfortunately, in DWTS it doesn’t mean jack. So, what does Kurt have to do to stick around?? Well, he has to do better vote wise than someone else, by the following margins:
-Kurt needs 29k more votes per 1 million votes cast than Bristol, or;
-He needs 34k more votes per 1 million votes cast than Jennifer, or;
-He needs 38,700 more votes per 1 million votes cast than either Kyle or Rick.
It’s not looking good for Kurt, folks. But ya never know. That’s a lot of votes – but we don’t know how many votes are actually being cast. What about Bristol? Well, if Kurt does better than her by the above margin, she needs to catch and pass someone else in her little group in the middle:
-Bristol would need 4,900 more votes per 1 million votes cast to pass Jennifer, or;
-She needs 9,700 more votes per 1 million votes cast to pass Kyle or Rick, or;
-She needs 19,300 more votes per 1 million votes cast to pass Audrina.
On the face of it, it would seem easy for her to do better than Jennifer, Kyle or Rick – but last night wasn’t a typical night. The judges were very nice to Bristol and Kyle both and, like it or not, that influences how much people vote. So, did Palin fans rest on their laurels??
What about Jennifer?? Will Bristol get the 4,900 votes and Kurt the 34k votes?? Bristol, maybe, but Kurt?? I kinda doubt it. But lets say they vote like crazy for him and he does very well. What does Jennifer have to do?
-Jennifer would need 4,850 more votes per 1 million votes cast to beat either Kyle or Rick, or;
-She needs 14,500 more votes per 1 million votes cast to beat Audrina, and (just for reference);
-She needs 34,000 more votes per 1 million votes cast to beat Brandy.
That kinda makes me feel better about Jennifer’s chances because I think she can get 4,800 more votes than Kyle AND 15k more votes than Audrina. Audrina, while I would like to see her in the final 3 with Brandy and Jennifer, still worries me because I never remember what she did the next day, or even after the show is over. That said, I will be shocked if she goes home tonight. I won’t be shocked if she goes home next week, provided that Jennifer gets her act together. What would cause Audrina to be the “shocking” elimination THIS week?
-Jennifer gets 14,500 more votes per 1 million votes cast, and;
-Rick AND Kyle EACH get 9,700 more votes per 1 million votes cast, and;
-Kurt gets 48,400 more votes per 1 million votes cast, and;
-Bristol gets 19,400 more votes per 1 million votes cast.
Hmmmmm….frankly, I could see Jennifer, Rick, Kyle and Bristol all getting the necessary votes. But Kurt?? That’s a lot. I tend to doubt it.
So, I guess in looking at these numbers I feel like Brandy, Rick and Audrina are safe – and I really hope all 3 of them really are safe. I also THINK that Jennifer is safe. Ironically, I think it’s possible that the judges being harsh with Jennifer could spell the end for Bristol – fair and correct or not, it has an impact on how people vote.
That leaves us with Kurt, Kyle and Bristol. We’ve already talked about Kurt and Bristol, but just how safe is Kyle?? For Kyle to leave the following would have to happen:
-Rick gets ONE more vote than him :-) per 1 million votes cast, and;
-Jennifer gets 4,850 more votes per 1 million votes cast, and;
-Bristol gets 9,700 more votes per 1 million votes cast, and;
-Kurt gets 38,700 more votes per 1 million votes cast
Actually, with the exception of Kurt (again) I can see all of that happening. I think it really comes down to Kurt, Kyle and Bristol, still. And keep in mind that for Kyle and Bristol to be safe OVER Florence last week they only needed 5,500 and 16,500 more votes per 1 million cast, respectively. That’s really not that much.
Well, I can’t pick. Last night confused me too much. You guys pick – who’s going home?? I’m leaning toward Kurt – but I really don’t know. It could be anyone.