I say sorta because we only have half the judges scores at this point.
Well it’s the last one for the year. And I can’t say I’m all that upset about it, although I did enjoy last night much more than I thought I would.
Regardless of what happens tonight, I think the actual winners are Jennifer and Derek, followed closely by Kyle and Lacey with Bristol and Mark a distant third. Will that be the outcome?? Well, it’s still hard to say. As I’ve been preaching all along, Bristol hasn’t needed huge percentages in order to stay. We’ve yet to get a real feel for the size of her fanbase. Her biggest margin she’s had to overcome was 1.93% and I can tell you right now that the margin between her and Jennifer going into the show tonight is more than double that. I tend to think that Bristol and Kyle are fighting for second, but we shall see. It could be Kyle and Jennifer fighting for first. Every single poll I’ve seen has Jennifer in first place – but you all know how I feel about internet polls (and Dial Idol). No respect at all. There is also a possible Bristol backlash to consider – hence the extremely tied up phones and internet until nearly 1 am central time last night. Everyone and their brother was voting. Now, I tend to think that the problems were universal and not limited to any one couple – logic dictates. But again, who knows? Here’s how our contestants rank going into two more dances tonight:
The Judges Scores and Percentages
As you can see, Bristol and Kyle both have serious ground to make up – and I can tell you right now that some seriously wacky scores would be required to get significant help from the judges. Jennifer would have to do badly in both dances and Bristol would have to knock it out of the park. So, if there were no more dances, what does Bristol have to do to WIN??
- She would have to get 23,900 more votes per million votes cast to pass Kyle, AND;
- She would have to get 48,000 more votes per million votes cast to pass Jennifer and Win.
Can she do that? I honestly don’t think so, but you just never know. Which group of fans had the most patience PLUS who was the average, everyday, pick up one phone person, voting for?? What about Kyle? What does he have to do with win??
- He needs for Bristol to NOT get the 23,900 more votes per million cast, AND;
- He needs 24,000 more votes per million votes cast than Jennifer to pass her and take the trophy.
I think Kyle’s odds are marginally better than Bristol’s, but I don’t think he’s going to pass Jennifer. Perhaps I’m relying a bit too much on conventional wisdom here and not giving crazy voters enough credit. I dunno. I just do the math – you decide if it’s possible.
As you all also know, there are two more dances (and, hence, two more scores) to consider. And anything can happen there. But let’s take a WILD guess and say that the scoring goes about how it did last night. Jennifer gets two 30s, Kyle gets a 30 and a 28 (one dance is ranked so there’s only one 30 to give out), and Bristol gets a 27 and a 26 (again, rank).
If it goes down like that, there is very little change – Kyle needs a few MORE votes to beat Jennifer, and Bristol needs fewer (44,700). Bristol would also need about 6k fewer votes to beat Kyle into second place (17.8k versus 23.8k).
What happens if the judges throw a wrench into the process and switch Jennifer and Kyle on the ranked Insta-dance (or whichever dance is ranked), but Bristol remains the same? Then Kyle only needs a little less than 15k more votes per million to beat Jennifer.
I can’t imagine them going higher than a 27 for Bristol, but what if?? What if Jennifer maintains her 30, but Bristol gets one too? It sounds utterly ridiculous, but those are our judges after all. If Jennifer get a total of 120 (4×30) for the two nights, Kyle gets a 30 and a 28 in addition to his 56, and Bristol gets a 30 and a 26 in addition to her 52?? For Bristol to win she would need:
- 35,100 (3.51%) more votes per million votes cast to beat Jennifer, AND;
- 17,600 (1.76%) more votes per million votes cast to pass Kyle and Win.
For Kyle to Win he would need for Bristol to NOT get her 17,6k votes and he would need 17.6k more votes per million votes cast than Jennifer.
At the end of the day, I have no clue what is going to happen. Based on those numbers and all kinds of strictly anecdotal evidence, such as Bristol backlash and random polls, I’m going to call it for Jennifer with Kyle second and Bristol taking 3rd. I would not be at ALL surprised to be wrong. Not in the slightest. I’ll tell you what though, if Jennifer can’t win, then I want it to be Kyle. If Bristol wins…well, I’ll be posting a picture of Fonzie (aka DWTS) jumping over a shark. The tipping point where cult of personality matters more (as opposed to being relatively equal) than any kind of talent whatsoever.
What say you??