DWTS12 Preliminary Power Rankings – Part I
So begins another season, and with that comes power rankings 
For those of you unfamiliar with these rankings, they’re basically a measure of how likely a certain couple is to stick around during a particular week – the higher the ranking, the less likely a couple is to get voted off; the lower the ranking, the more likely they are to get voted off. Keep in mind that this takes several factors into account – not just score, but also likeability, fan base, how memorable a couple was, etc. The most exciting part is that these rankings can change dramatically week after week – very interesting to discuss & debate
Each season, I do a preliminary power ranking of all the couples before we’ve actually seen them dance live on the show – I actually predicted the top 5 couples of season 10 without every seeing any of the couples dance. My preliminary rankings for season 11 were crap, but then again, last season was pretty unpredictable But let’s get on with season 12, shall we? I’ll begin with the bottom half of pack – the couples that I don’t see making it past the midpoint of the show. As an aside – this has definitely been the hardest season for me to “forecast”, as I think the playing field is unusually level this season – no immediate stand-outs in terms of dance experience. However, there does seem to be some disparity in levels of fame & popularity, which I think may play a bigger role this season than it has in the past.
11.) Petra Nemcova & Dmitry Chaplin – I’m afraid this season’s “prettiest” couple is also in danger of being the first to go, unfortunately. Judging from the rehearsal videos, it looks like Petra may be this season’s worst dancer…she definitely seems to be suffering from Awkward-Moving Model Syndrome, and seems like her long arms and legs are just all over the place. So Dmitry’s got some work to do…and I think he might struggle with it. Dmitry did well with Mya, yes, but Mya was already an experienced dancer; I think Petra is going to be more along the lines of never-really-danced-before-in-my-life Holly, who only made it to week 3 of her season. These two seem like they’re very relaxed and get along well, but that could also pose a problem – there’s some bigger, more famous personalities on this season, and these two are really going to have to make an impression in order to stand out. Can they do it? I’m skeptical. Overall, I think the biggest problem these two are going to face is just being memorable – if they fade into the woodwork, they’re goners.
10.) Wendy Williams & Tony Dovolani – Does anyone else find it odd that there has been very little practice footage of these two so far, and that Tony has been uncharacteristically quiet about their progress? I also thought it a bit weird that Wendy seems to tweet more about her show & getting her hair and nails done than she does about actually practicing. Who knows – it could be these two just wanting to suprise everyone come showtime. But I’m starting to get the impression that these two may not be as invested in the show as some of the other couples are. It’s one of the reasons I think these two may be an early exit – another is Wendy’s big mouth. She’s dissed a good number of celebrities on her show, and makes no apologies about it. Some controversy can be a boon to a contestants success on the show; but sometimes, it does more harm than good. Then there comes to problem of Wendy’s height – the last time Tony had a partner this tall with no dance experience whatsoever was Kathy Ireland, and she was gone during week 2. Ladies of height have traditionally not done so well on the show, as many of them seem uncomfortable moving with their stature. And after seeing the rehearsal footage of these two – yikes. Tony’s definitely got his work cut out for him, as Wendy seems to be not only an awkward mover, but also a timid mover…did you guys see how badly she freaked out just over falling back into Tony’s arms? Wendy’s fans may save her from elimination the first week, but unless she has some miraculous (and I do mean miraculous!) improvement from what we’ve seen so far, I doubt she’ll make it past week 2.
9.) Mike Catherwood & Lacey Schwimmer – I definitely don’t think Mike will be the best dancer we’re gonna see this season, and he’s definitely the “Who?” of this season’s cast – but I think these two will dodge at least the first two elims based solely on Lacey’s popularity and Mike’s charm. As I’ve said in the past, Lacey’s got a rabid, young fan base that seems extremey motivated to vote, and that alone could save these two from the deathly bath of the red lights…for a little while. As less popular couples fall, though, they’re going to have to step up their game to stick around – and judging from what we’ve seen and heard so far from Mike, I doubt he’s going to have the judges whipping out the 8′s, 9′s, & 10′s anytime soon. What he does have, though, is an decent amount of charm – which could have female viewers picking up the phone for him for at least a few weeks. One thing that could hurt these two: Lacey’s budding singing career. I see her tweeting more and more about “being in the studio” and “laying down vocals” – and it’s reminding me of Mark last season, who seemed more excited about his singing gigs than he did about his progress with Bristol (not that I fault him too much for that one 
). I just hope that Lacey hasn’t already checked out of this season, because I would like to at least see a few weeks worth of dancing out of her and Mike.
8.) Ralph Macchio & Karina Smirnoff – It’s definitely interesting to me how support for Ralph has really jumped in the past week or so – enough of an increase to catch the attention of the Vegas oddsmakers. I think Ralph is definitely going to be a sentimental favorite for those who grew up watching The Karate Kid trilogy, but for those who haven’t seen it (perhaps the cross-section of younger viewers) or don’t remember it too well, Ralph could be a bit of a “nobody”, considering he really hasn’t done a whole lot since the trilogy. From what we’ve seen in the rehearsal footage thus far, I think he definitely has potential and is already much better than some of the other contestants this season (see above ), but he does seem to struggle with confidence and does move with a certain degree of caution. As for his pro – I think he may be at a bit of a disadvantage, as Karina seems to be the most polarizing female pro on the show this season, and perhaps the one with the smallest fanbase. He may have some residual athletic skill from his karate days, but I don’t know that it’s going to be as significant as, say, Hines or Chris’ more current athleticism. I really do hope Ralph is able to come out of his shell and get voters’ attention, because the guy seems totally likeable I’m excited to see more from these two.
7.) Sugar Ray Leonard & Anna Trebunskaya – Isn’t it funny how Anna always ends up with partners that are total teddy bears? I definitely can see these two being one of this season’s most well-liked couples, but I don’t think they’ll likely have enough steam to make it past the midpoint of the competition. Yes, Sugar Ray is a living legend in boxing and will likely get quite a few votes from boxing fans; however, boxers tend to really take a beating during their careers, and those effects seem to show up later in life…and he’s 54. Watching their rehearsal videos, it’s clear that Sugar Ray has some rhythm, but he also seems like it takes him some time to really pick up on some of the moves – so Anna might have to really “drill” some of this stuff into his head. The good news is that Sugar Ray also seems to have the most intense focus of any of the celebs this season, and is really willing to work hard and put in the effort in order to perform well. I just hope he remembers to have fun at the same time
So there’s the bottom of the pack…what do you guys think? Anyone else you think should be there…or anyone you think will go way further? Let’s hear it! Be sure to stay tuned for part II, when I reveal my predictions for the top 3…and who I think will take the MBT this season
I have voted for Jacoby because I honestly didn’t think he’d beat Zendaya or Kellie in...
Overall I agree with you although I’m really hoping Ralph has some staying power-REALLY love him! I’m wondering however if Wendy may be able to outstay Mike. She hasn’t won me over so her leaving before him works for me, but supposedly she has a pretty big fan base.
I’m hoping Ralph sticks around for awhile too, Michele – he seems like a really nice guy
Wendy’s a big question mark for me…I definitely think she’s one of the weakest dancers this season, but I keep hearing about this “huge fanbase” she has. I just wonder if the same people that watch her show also tune in to DWTS…and if so, are they the type that are motivated to vote? As for Mike…I think he’s got a big advantage in having Lacey. Her fanbase seems pretty big, and could keep him in for awhile. Not sure Tony’s fanbase would be the same boon for Wendy.
I think this is pretty right on, given what we know and what we’ve seen so far. Well done, Courtney! Like you, I think personality (and hence the sometimes damning, sometimes redeeming, rehearsal packages) is going to play a big part this season. As will the judges reactions to the contestants.
Re: Wendy’s fanbase. Kim K had a “huge fanbase”. As did the Situation. Lots of people go in with huge fanbases – but are they the RIGHT kind of fanbase. That is the question you have to ask. Sure, Chelsea probably has a huge fanbase too – but are they the type to watch the show and vote religiously?? Because that’s what it will take with this group. If left to the average viewer, absent huge fanbases, then the most likeable wins. Wendy doesn’t have one of the more popular Pros…so the jury is out.
I think Courtney has it pegged, with the possible exception of Ralph. Of course, the bottom of the pack is always easier to predict than the top.
Well, except for last season.
Courtney, I think you’ve called it close. You are right too how we haven’t seen much rehearsal footage of Tony and Wendy. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Wendy goes first. I have my doubts about Mike and Ralph as well. My verdict is still out on Petra since she looked better in the rehearsal footage yesterday and she’s really touched on a lot of hearts in the wakes of the Japan Disaster.
Great new first Power Ranking for Season 12. I can’t wait to see Part 2.
Great Job !
If I could choose (without having seen them dancing), I’d rather keep Petra & Mike than Chelsea & Romeo but you’re probably right about this bottom 5.
I completely concur, Courtney! The only exception I take is with Sugar Ray, I hope he makes it to the top 6 since he seems as if he should cope well with all this intensity and I just really think he’s got a shining personality.
What about Jerico, I don’t see him lasting past first few eliminations? Besides he has the mentallity to bring blood in the ring I had rather see him go first
Pretty spot on.
I would put Sugar Ray in the top 6, maybe Ralph too which would mean Chris and Romeo end up in the bottom.
I also don’t think Chelsea and Kendra are as safe as they should be based on their dancing ability. They both come from fan bases which haven’t really supported their dancers in the past. They both have to come off as very likable. Kendra is in the advantage in that respect over Chelsea but it could be that it’s not enough when compared to some other charming contestants.
Here’s my bottom 6:
Wendy
Chris
Petra
Romeo
Mike
Chelsea
Thanks for the kudos all
This ranking was a frustrating one for me – as Heidi can attest, I was bitching on Twitter because I kept rewriting it! Haha. And yes, the bottom of the pack is almost always more easy to guess than the top of the pack – thankfully, despite all sorts of “shock eliminations”, more often than not, the worst dancer (or one of the worst dancers) usually goes home the first week of each season. That leads me to believe that we’ll be saying “adios” to either Petra, Wendy, or Mike in about a week and half.
@Whatabout? – As for Chris, I think his biggest advantage is having Cheryl – she has a pretty damn good track record for taking her celebs past the midpoint of each season. I think she’s only been sent home earlier than that twice in her 11 seasons on the show (10th place with Wayne Newton, & 13th with Tom DeLay – who actually withdrew, rather than being voted off). Plus she has a decent fanbase, so even if Chris is just ok, I could see her fans keeping them in for awhile. And Chris seems really motivated too – I think he’s wanted to do the show for awhile, and is excited to finally be on it. We’ll probably see a lot of entertaining performances from him. As for “bringing blood in the ring”…isn’t that kind of what professional wrestlers are supposed to do?
Courtney – I agree with these rankings and understand how frustrating this must have been. It’s so daggone hard this season! I do agree that Petra and Wendy are on the bubble for that dreaded first elimination. Unless Wendy’s fans spring into voting action, or Petra get’s mega support for her relief efforts in Japan … then it might be Mike going home first.
I’m saddened to see Ralph & Sugar Ray on this list, but don’t know who I would replace them with ??? I’m also surprised that we have so little footage of Ralph and Karina – the one rehearsal video there was is unviewable (says it’s “private”) – what little bit I’ve seen of them was not bad, but I too worry that he’ll fade into the background, which usually means curtains on this show.
Does anyone know if there’s an elimination the very first week, or are they saving that for week 2 this season? I prefer they wait until week 2, like they have done at times in the past.
sasa I’m going to disagree with you. Quite a bit of the Kyle support is going to Chelsea this season and she also has Mark’s dedicated fan base to help her. I think she is far more likable than Kendra, who I dislike already. I also think that like previous contestants with a Playboy background, she is going to have a hard time winning over mainstream viewers.
@Michele
I don’t think Kyle’s support will translate to Chelsea unless she matches his charm and charisma, which I don’t see her doing. I could be wrong but for now I don’t see it.
Kendra has a problematic support as we’ve seen with Pam but I personally don’t find her unlikable (or very likable so far). She’s just who she is which, if judging by the dreaded Bristol example, people sometimes respond well to. I did last season with Bristol up to a point near the end.
Kendra is already talking about the pressure of high expectations. I think it’s good she’s talking about it but it could mean she’s maybe overly concerned about other people and their opinions which is always the recipe for disaster.
I dunno, I’m just speculating.
Agree with most of your rankings Courtney. After hearing about the cast and viewing all the footage’s and pictures I can definitely see Petra, Wendy and Mike as the first three to be eliminated for various reasons of fan base to how they dance. The rest are all looking really good and where it gets tough. I was saddened to see you rank Ralph and Sugar Ray in this group since Vegas Odds have been in their favor this past week. I am not going to lie that one of the celebs I am rooting/voting for is Ralph, but you make a valid disadvantage for him which is Karina (I still like her though).
I think Heidi hit the nail on the head about fan bases – after all, wasn’t David Hasselhoff supposed to have a large, rabid fan base?
Courtney, you’re probably spot-on, but to be honest, I’m hoping that Ralph sticks around longer. And I’m curious to see where your rankings put Kirstie – to be honest, I just don’t think she’s got the stamina to go very far.
I can only imagine how hard it was to rank everyone. No one seems absolutely terrible, and they’re all pretty likeable, so I think will be interesting to see what happens this season.
I agree that Wendy doesn’t come off as being too invested in the show. I thought I saw a video where she said she was showing up late to rehearsal, so she’d only have to be there for a few hours. I don’t know if she’s actually stuck with that, but it definitely wouldn’t benefit her if she did. I wonder if she’ll be the first to go instead of Petra. Petra doesn’t look like a great dancer, but she seems very sweet and may appeal to people in that way.
Thank you for doing this. Do you think there’ll be viewer residue from last season? What I mean is, there were a lot of people who didn’t follow the show much before the teen advocate showed up. And most of them had a pretty rolicking time, you know? Think they’ll latch onto someone this season?
AWESOME job Courtney! Loved it!
**
I haven’t been able to pinpoint where everyone will rank and apparently, I wasn’t alone. It is so true that this season seems more level than others but after last season, maybe I’m too timid to make any predictions. I too hope Ralph can go further and he may be the first male that I actually vote for in terms of hardcore voting. I don’t know why but I always tend to vote for the ladies more? Wonder why?
**
Looking forward to Part 2 and once again, GREAT JOB!!!!!
I would say that Cheryl is easily the most popular of the female pros – she only recently (before last season) got an official twitter and she’s only being beaten in followers by Derek – and she’s closing on him every day. With her being on TV every week I expect her to catch him.
I think I agree with the bottom three, as Courtney wrote them, and am HOPING that both Sugar Ray and Ralph make it further than where they’re preliminarily placed.
Looking forward to the rest of the list, and hoping that the ones I fear could be on the top of the list isn’t….. I can hope, right?
I appreciate all the time, trouble and effort that went into the list, Courtney… Seeing the practice videos, it does seem like they are all fairly closely matched, so we could have a real battle on our hands. It may come down to personality, and how well each couple get along, and how the producers choose to show them interacting in practice. And the pros..
Ralph and Karina? Yes, she COULD be a disability, BUT! when she has the right partner, she shines, and her personality shines. There are times when I like her, and times when I don’t like her, and a lot of that has to do with whom she’s partnered. So far this season, from what little I’ve seen, she’ll shine, and I’ll like her…. Depending on if she gives good choreography to Ralph.
Not to make you even busier, but before the season starts, we could have a post/discussion on the Pros/Cons that each of the professionals will bring to the floor…. Since it does seem that it COULD end up the PRO that determines the winner?
Kendra’s playboy history is, IMO, a non-issue. People thought Brooke would be gone early because of some modeling she had done. Same with Lil’ Kim and prison. Holly? COULDN’T DANCE TO SAVE HER LIFE. That’s the key. I also agree with Sasa on Chelsea – Disney is not a guarantee. How long did Cody last and he was Hannah freakin’ Montana! He made it past the halfway point but not much farther.
Frankly, I think Kendra’s biggest problem is her partner. But that’s just me.
Not all that crazy about Chelsea’s partner either – his choreo often strikes me as way too hard when he’s got someone with a bit of talent. Plus he’s distracted with his music.
You know, people, if you are worried about Ralph or whoever – you have to VOTE like crazy. And hope other people are doing it too.
Well, Jay, despite what her fans will tell you, Bristol’s impact on the show wasn’t great UNTIL she overstayed her welcome – and even then we’re not talking about huge numbers. Those numbers could have just been from controversy. The numbers this season WILL dip – because they Always do on the Spring version of the show. The fall season always does better in the ratings than the Spring one – most people are outside in the nice weather instead inside watching TV.
Petra I think will stay longer because she will be dancing for a cause.
Codly Linley placed fourth, didn’t he? That’s pretty damn respectable if you ask me. Beaten only by Lance Bass (huge fan base) Warren Sapp (fanbase and personality) and Brooke Burke (great dancer). Just my take on Cody, who seems to get thrown around like it was a shocking elimination.
Anyway, I agree this season will be difficult to gauge. I think the judges have a lot of power in their paddles this season because of the relatively level playing field.
Wendy may be one of the first to go depending on her packages – does she come across as really fun loving or not trying very hard. That will determine, I think, how committed people are to voting for a bad dancer.
Normally I would say Petra is in the most trouble, being a model and having Dmitry for a partner. But the timing of the tsunami and her story may keep her around a week or two longer than expected. That’s certainly not a guarantee though and may be dependent more on how Wendy and Mike come across than her own stuff.
I also really hope for Ralph to stick around. Karina can be very polarizing and she doesn’t have the same appeal that the other female pros have across a wide section of the audience. BUT I’m hoping that Ralph can dance well enough and they look like they are having enough fun to keep them around.
I’m sure Lacey will have some interesting choreography for Mike and they’ll look like they are having a lot of fun. He may stay just by virtue of that stuff, even if he is less well known and not as good a dancer (unfortunately for him though, there’s tons of likable people on this season).
Truly and honestly though, this may be the toughest season in a while to predict anything. Looking forward to Monday!!!!
I think you have Ralph too low. He’s neurotic but very nice and actually has quite a bit of talent. Him and Karina work very well together. I hope Sugar Ray stays longer, but he’s having a hard time picking things up so who knows? Petra and Dmitry will and should go early, they’re both boring and annoying at the same time. If it’s just a personality contest, Wendy may stay a little longer. But eventually the dancing will matter as well.
Thank you, Courtney, for posting these pre-season rankings. You filled the bottom of the pack with the couples I also thought would be there.
One difference is, I considered putting Romeo in the #7 slot and bumping Sugar Ray into the top half of the pack. I know nothing about Romeo but have a few concerns. He seems like a nice guy, but even though this is the second time he’s signed up for the show, I kind of question his commitment and wonder how seriously he’ll take it. Also, in the rehearsal footage, he seemed to have just a hint of a “too cool for school” vibe that might not win over viewers. Maybe he’s just a very laid back guy. I hope so because it seems he’s got all the physical qualities to be a good dancer – fit, coordinated, musical – and I like to see good dancing.
I’m interested in figuring out Louis and Mark, in fact all of the male pros because I seem to have an issue with male pros.
It’s an over the top sport and over the top show, that’s for sure. So what is it that makes guys include over the top in their behavior while girls seem to handle it naturally?
I’m gonna exclude Derek because he’s not on this season and Dmitry because he’s well Dmitry.
Louis can be a big diva and somewhat bitchy. Maks is over the top cheeky and tries to be provocative which ends up biting him in the ass and then he starts running his tongue. The kinda good news about both of them is that they are unapologetic. It would be even worse if they went back and forth with bitchiness trying to seem super nice at points. And they both have a lot of light and shade to their teaching and choreography skills.
Mark is more mellow in his behavior though he does have his moments. I agree that it seems he is not the best teacher out there. He does GREAT with amazingly talented partners, otherwise he over dances a lot of the time.
Tony has a good attitude but his teaching skills are not great and that ends up ruining everything.
So how do I choose? Or should I just stick with the girls.
I tend to prefer the male pros over the females. Ill throw my two cents in even though others will strongly disagree, however it is my opinion.
Maks is a good dancer. He appears an adequate teacher. However he is very short tempered and his mouth is his worst enemy. I think that mouth contributed to he and Brandy not making the finals. Tony has never grown on me. I don’t dislike him, but he also seems a tad short tempered. His mouth too manages to hurt him as well. Dmitry fades into the woodwork for me. He is a good dancer but I’m not real impressed with his skills. I have nothing against the man, but I just can’t get excited about him. Louis is a great dancer and choreographer. He seems a good teacher…however once again his mouth seems to be his own enemy. I really like the guy though. For me, Mark is the best of the lot. He is a great dancer, good choreographer and in my opinion a good teacher. He was very patient with Bristol and I don’t think another pro could have gotten as much out of her. I will admit that of the male pros I have only voted for Mark, otherwise it has worked out I support male celebrities.
I think Sugar Ray is going to go first. Or Mike.
My predictions are:
Petra&Dmitry, Mike&Lacey, Chris&Cheryl and Sugar Ray & Anna for the firsts four couples eliminated…
The average ones are gonna be Wendy&Tony and Kirstie&Maks
And the final five:
Romeo-Chelsie, Ralph-Karina, Kendra-Louis, Hines-Kym, Chelsea-Mark
And the final is going between Hines, Chelsea and either Kendra or Romeo…
Hm, the final.
I would say Hines, Kendra and Kirstie. Ralph as the dark horse.
Bottom 4:
*Sugar & Anna
*Petra & Dmirty
*Romeo & Chelsie
*Raplph & Karina
Average:
*Mike & Lacey
*Wendy & Tony
Top 5:
*HInes & Kym
*Mike & Lacey
*Kendra & Louis
*Chesea & Mark
*Kirstie & Maks
You do wonder how they make these pairings. We could be fooled, but it’s almost as if Cheryl didn’t draw a top prospect on purpose. She has so much else going on right now and wouldn’t mind being freer in the weeks ahead?? The prospective sessionwill be interesting, just not looking forward to the judges at all-wouldn’t have minded seeing a new one.
Bottom 4:
*Sugar & Anna
*Petra & Dmirty
*Romeo & Chelsie
*Rapph & Karina
Average:
*******Chris & Cheryl*****
*Wendy & Tony
Top 5:
*HInes & Kym
*Mike & Lacey
*Kendra & Louis
*Chesea & Mark
*Kirstie & Maks
The final? I’m guessing Chelsea, Hines, and Ralph. I think Hines will win it. And I think Mike will reach 4th – he’ll grow on people. I just don’t think Kirstie will go very far, with her age, weight, and the personality clash with Maks. And I think (Maybe I hope?) Kendra will wear her welcome out, and Louis won’t help on that score… my hubby watched “The Girls Next Door”, and Kendra didn’t impress me at all – in fact, “vapid” comes to mind…
It could just be St. Patrick Day’s drinks, but I have to say what is it about Wendy and Petra thats so out of place? I thought Wendy would be more outgoing and more productive and Petra definitely has potential (They all do), but she doesn’t really care. Shes already attempted to quit! I feel bad for Dmitry as he really got a bad deal this season. Dmitry is to Petra as Master P was to Ashly.
Strike that nobody is worse than Master P, perhaps she’s on a Jeffrey Ross or Penn Jillette level
Did Cody last till fourth? Well, he had Julianne who was hugely popular AND that was the season that Julianne had to have surgery for endomitriosis – huge sympathy factor at play there. If mark were as popular as Julianne, he could have kept shannen around longer.
Stick with the girls, sasa.
The women on this show and Derek are just more gracious all the way around.
That said I will most likely vote for Kirstie and maks because I am loving her.
Cody was popular in his own right-having Julianne helped, of course, but she definitely didn’t carry him. By the end his dancing just wasn’t showing the maturity the others were. I even voted some for them and I had never heard of Cody before the show and am not a Julianne fan. The Disney personalities seem to be coming more into their own with each season one competes. I knew who Kyle was before and liked him even though I found him slightly annoying on the show. Was pleased how well he did. Chelsea MIGHT be the best Disney dancer since Sabrina Bryan-not really enough evidence to be sure. But what I’ve seen is her personality is fun and quirky, she’s cute and I do believe people will enjoy she and Mark. Just saying that like the many unknown variables in this equation, the Disney contingent should not be ruled out.
As DWTS has become more popular, so have the pros. So their fan bases can now actually help or hurt a contestant, which may not have been the case even just a few years ago.
Since DWTS is not an authentic dance competition (with contestants of equal ability/training) but rather an entertainment show with dancing as its centerpiece, naturally other factors carry more weight. The size and dedication of the fan bases (both contestant/pro) being one and the chemistry between the partners being most essential. For that reason I think the producers know their pros very well and how to pair them off for maximum results.
Size and age play a big part in how they’re paired up, but clearly the pros’ ability to teach, level of patience (or lack thereof), and work ethic all factor in. It’s no surprise that Jonathan has been given some difficult partners. His mature and patient approach is invaluable to the show when they cast someone like Macy Gray.
As Mark stated in an interview he knew exactly why they paired him with Bristol. The producers knew she had zero experience/ability yet they cast her anyway. She had to be paired with, arguably, the most patient male pro on the show. Jonathan is right there with him of course. But Mark’s patience, tenacity, and work ethic were the deciding factors.
As far as charm, it’s definitely in the eye of the beholder. Perhaps Kendra will win people over or perhaps, despite her large following on Twitter, she’ll be as popular as Kim K. Kyle clearly won the charisma contest last season hands down! Whether or not Kyle’s and The Jonas Brothers’ support will translate into votes for Chelsea has yet to be seen but I wouldn’t dismiss the idea. And as far as choreography, it’s pretty much like charm as well. It’s all in the eye of the beholder!
Thanks Courtney! I love the Power Rankings. Do you usually do them every week during the show? I can’t remember but I really enjoy reading them.
Nick – Did Petra really attempt to quit? Hadn’t heard about that.
I love Ralph and Karina and think Karina is fantastic. Can’t wait for Monday!
But it can’t be overstated, either, Michele. Has a Disney kid won? Has MARK’s Disney person gone far? Answer is no on both counts. Mark does not have the appeal of either Julianne or Derek, no matter how you look at it. Hell, there are at least 4pros ahead of him in twitter followers. That IS a factor, like it or not. Of course, mark will benefit heavily from Derek not being on the show – there are a disturbing number of people out there who will vote for mark either because Derek tells them to, or because they are bffs. Unfortunately, I’ve never liked koolaide.
I’m not saying they can’t or won’t win, just that it’s not even close to a sure thing. It’s not even “probable” in my book.
Petra considered quitting to go help Japan in the wake of the tsunami – not because she was discouraged by DWTS. At least that’s what I’ve heard.
Appeal is in the eye of the beholder Heidi. And we clearly are on opposite ends of the spectrum. I have faith in Chelsea and I have faith Mark. I also believe people will vote for whomever they want no matter what a pro says. I actually hope Derek doesn’t encourage his fans to vote for Mark. First, they won’t anyway, but second IF Mark should happen to win, then no one can say that Derek’s support gave it to him. I didn’t even bring Derek up but have tried to focus on Chelsea andthe fact that while others don’t consider her a threat, I do. Isn’t that the whole point of this thread-debating who has what it takes and who doesn’t? At some point a Disney star will win this thing-maybe THIS season. Maybe not…we’ll know within 11 weeks for sure.
Mark has had only one Disney person before and that was Sabrina. I can tell you from personal experience the power voting stratgeies we use now were widely unkown to us at that time. I guarantee you that would not be the case now. We will have to wait and see if Chelsea goes all the way. She may or may not.
Besides it was once believed a model couldn’t win and then Brooke Burke proved that wrong. Perhaps Chelsea will do that for the Disney people.
I would hope the number of Twitter followers is not the only criteria by which one’s appeal is measured. After all Charlie Sheen has more than both Houghs and he’s not appealing in the least.
Kim Kardashian’s and Chad Ochocinco’s large number of follwers hardly helped them. But if that is the criteria we’re going to go by then Chelsea is in good shape given the fact she has nearly 500,000.
First of all I am not sure how you know a “disturbingly” large number of Derek fans would vote for Mark because Derek said so or because they’re bffs. I have yet to encounter a fan such as this. Could you please cite a direct example of precisely when this happened? Thank you.
I am also not sure how Mark benefits from Derek not being on DWTS. He has won two mirror balls while competing right along side him.
I don’t think too many people have said Chelsea and Mark are a sure thing. Just that they’re contenders. We will know at the end of the season just how strong.
And I agree with Michele. Appeal and charm and all such subjective things are a matter of taste and in the eye of the beholder. It’s what makes life interesting!
Didn’t read all comments, but good points Courtney. I agree almost 100%, except about Daniel-san.
I think he can be like Apolo – saved appropriate proportion – who did well but wasn’t getting attention on first 3 weeks until his breakthrough dance (in case, samba).
well, maybe I’m dreaming, but think he can be a revelation and show a lot of charisma. what may help him to get the mid-age woman voters… =p
Mark benefitted right away with Derek not participating by being paired with Chelsea. Chelsea looks a bit taller than Mark in those videos. If Derek was on this season, i am guessing he would be paired with Chelsea and Mark would have Kendra. I guess then it is just even for Mark. Kendra’s good too. Mark won twice and should have given he was paired with Kristi and Shawn. Heidi is right though. If Mark was that popular say like Cheryl, the Houghs and Maks, he shouldn’t have had those early exits in those other seasons like with Shannon.
Mark said he was the only one patient enough to teach Bristol while I thought it was more due to their close age and height that they were paired together. Mark seems patient and fine with dancers like Kristi and now Chelsea. But he also tends to try too hard choreography wise.
Kendra and Chelsea will make the final 4. I wonder if Louis and Mark will try too hard as others said and might hurt Kendra and Chelsea. They are both good but the choreography is important. All I remember from both of them choreography wise is busy. I think Chelsea has a fan base. She has a lot of twitter followers and of the Disney stars, I think she has the most potential to win. Even more than Sabrina. Chelsea might have dance experience but it seems more hidden so it is not getting the outrage some had about Sabrina. But I don’t know if Mark himself has the fan base of say the Houghs, Cheryl or Maks to push for a win. If Chelsea wins, I don’t know if I can say that is because Mark is popular. Chelsea seems to be popular herself.
It is funny how this season has no real frontrunners like Evan, Nicole or Kristi but they are all a bit even so it is tough to predict (dance wise). Kirstie is just so funny that I can see her being popular even if her dancing is not perfect.
Hines and Chris are my dark horse pics. They have two good partners. Hines brings that smile and dancing, he will surprise viewers. It might be like Warren or Emmitt all over again. After two women winning, maybe viewers will also want to see a male win.
Interesting rankings! I agree with the bottom 3, but not necessarily that order. Petra has gotten a lot of press recently and might out last Mike. I don’t think Lacey’s fanbase will help him too much, if she were that popular ABC never would have benched her. Wendy’s saving grace may be that she has a platform to promote herself daily and possibly while voting is still open online. I don’t think she can win, but she may last a longer than she should.
As for Kendra, I don’t know if the Holly’s ‘popularity’ is a good comparison. Holly had sympathy becasue she was added last minute and then injured pretty quickly. Kendra may have Pamela Anderson’s problem. She was bottom 2 week one and voted out when she had higher scores than Niecy, who had a fraction of the name recognition. The audience tends to be women and a bit older by tv standards. The playboy model may struggle with the vote.
Actually, Michele, appeal on this show is actually pretty darn measurable via a number of factors – like it or not. And you have NO idea how many people have asked me to vote for Mark since he’s Derek’s bff. The number is quite large. Don’t worry, I’m not committing.
As for wanting a win not attributable to Derek – good goal, since none of Mark’s win thus far can be attributable to him and not a ringer.
Ah, I see the Mark fans are out in force. All you have to do is look at my twitter feed for PDH to see how Mark benefits. Plus, Mark won with TWO ringers and does FAR less well without one. Derek only had one. And one of his wins was a complete unknown. I don’t think there is any question at all that Derek, Maks, Cheryl and even Lacey are more popular than Mark is.
It sucks that so many fans feel the need that it needs to be an EITHER OR with Derek or Mark. I do like Derek a bit more, but really I like all the pros. I think many of them have great attributes – even Mark. He does dance around his partners a lot, but I wouldn’t blame Shannen’s early exit on him – she is so universally unliked that no one voted for her. Sure, maybe a pro that is more popular like Derek or Maks could have kept her in slightly longer – but not much. People just didn’t like her, and they still don’t. I think it’s a shame, but that’s how it goes. Anyway, you can think Derek is the best and still like other pros, and the reverse is true. This us versus them – be it Derek vs Maks or Derek vs Mark doesn’t need to be there! And I do think Mark did one thing well with Bristol – although he did overdance and looked checked out, he IS enormously patient, maybe even more so than Derek. He knew what she needed to be more comfortable. I PERSONALLY don’t think she did well at all, but I don’t think Derek would have done any better, maybe worse. But I do know if it was ME on the show, I’d want Derek’s ingenuity and perfectionism rather than Mark’s laid back approach (cause it’s not like Derek is intimidating anyway). But there are other people that may be better suited to Mark. As others have pointed out, Mark has gotten ringers – by virtue of height. Derek has gotten some of his partners by virtue of height as well. Anyway, I was rambling a bit, just wanted to point out that you can root for both and it isn’t a betrayal of your ultimate fandom
Great reading, both in the post and the comments. After your comment about last season’s pre-season rankings, I went back and looked. That ‘ringer’ Jennifer and the ‘always lucky’ Derek who gets the best partners was out of the top three. I think is shows that you never know, which is half the fun of the show.
I agree with the statement that the pro’s may play a bigger part in this. They always have in how they choreograph and teach, but the addition of their own ‘fans’ is an interesting element. Even three or four seasons ago, the power of twitter wasn’t what it was. The ability to reach a large number of people and harness those votes is pretty powerful.
Heidi, I think pro popularity depends and varies on every season…
I have just no doubt that Cheryl is the most (or one of the most) popular pro on show. (I like and respect her but I’m not her big fan)
Derek’s popularity grew a lot last seasons… with Jennie and Shannon he wasn’t a unanimity he is nowadays…
I think Tony is more popular than Lacey and she is not so popular as Mark.
Of course popularity is different than fanbase… and fanbase depends of pairing… it’s too early to measure on this season… think it’s incalculable by now… =/
Can will from now always refer to Lacey as Lacey, Lacey, Lacey?
Lacey has a following from another reality show and she was very popular.
Heidi’s right that it is a goal for Mark to win one that is attributable to him.
Yahoo did an article on this upcoming season and did bring up a good point that after so many seasons that pros are celebrities too on the show. That Derek winning three is as much of a credit to his own popularity and also choreography memorable routines that those who vote just on the dance vote for his partners. I don’t think in the end the pros are the only determining factor. The stars themselves are important. But I have only seen the Houghs, Cheryl and Lacey at times keep a celeb on the show longer than I think if they were with another pro. Mark has not had no names as his partners yet has early exits with everyone who isn’t a ringer. Bristol is the exception and we can attribute that to her fan base. This is not about who is better but a valid point that Heidi and others have made on the show that maybe his popularity is overrated.
Jennifer and Derek were not in the top 3 in last year’s preliminary power rankings? Wow! I guess everyone who said it was so obvious last year have short memories.
I have to say that while I like this cast, I liked last season’s cast too. You take the Bristol drama out of the equation, you had fun guys like Kyle, Kurt, and Rick. You had Jennifer, Audrina, the Hoff! Same with season 10. Take Kate out and everyone on the cast said how much season 10 bonded.
well, I liked S11 cast, just don’t liked all that theme weeks. =/
I can only speak for myself, but I vote because of pros/stars just until week 5 or 6… after that, I just vote for the couple I think is the best, considering dancing, charisma and entertainment…
————–
ah… Want to show you that Kirstie has ballroom dance background. check the video below:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7B4SlcX2P04&feature=related
(just kidin’ =p)
Interesting ranking. But I won’t comment til I see them dance come Monday because that will change my mind for sure. Good rankings! Funny to see the debate about Derek and Mark. Both are good pros and are fun to watch with there celebs. Who cares there bffs why are there fans going to battle?lol so funny Chelsea might have an advantage on what Sabrina didn’t have when she did her season. Mark’s not a new pro anymore and has gained his fan base on his own. So there is a big difference now but who knows if the Disney fan’s will vote Chelsea time will til this season. It will be interesting to see how Kendra will fair with the DWTS audience and all. I can’t wait to see Kristie and Maks come Monday and now even Hines and Kym! Did anyone see this interview that Lacey Schwimmer did for a radio? It’s 2 part radio interview and she talks about something weird Mark Ballas did that was kinda gross to show Mike her celeb partner that it was possible. Check it out here
Part 1
http://kroq.radio.com/2011/03/16/lacey-schwimmer-psycho-mikes-dancing-with-the-stars-partner-spills-the-details-on-his-skills-and-his-bamboo-underwear/
Part 2 hear what Lacey says about Mark Ballas around the 4:30 mark or more it’s gross and he’s not shy about it. Mark and Lacey must be pretty close to do what Mark did.
http://kroq.radio.com/2011/03/16/lacey-schwimmer-psycho-mikes-dancing-with-the-stars-partner-spills-the-details-on-his-skills-and-his-bamboo-underwear/2/
I dont want to listen to the audio – what did he say or do that was so gross?
I think the thing about pre lim rankings is that we just don’t know how they move. Right after the first episode of season 11 we knew that Jennifer had moves that were well above everyone else. Kyle, who was picked first to leave, after the first dance we could see that he was going to go far. The only surprise was Bristol, but after the first dance you can get a sense of how things are going to play out. USUALLY!
Well, MY point was, Fig, that you’re not required to love Mark if you love Derek, and that Mark is not in the top 4 in terms of popularity. Has nothing to do with whether I like him or not (although I’m certainly not crazy about him or his style). You have NO idea how sick I am of people telling me I have to vote for Mark because he is (was?) Derek’s best friend. Drives me absolutely nuts. No, I think I will vote for who I like best. Right now that is Kirstie.
And really, expecting people to NOT compare the pros against each other is asking WAY too much. It’s just what people do.
“Well, MY point was, Fig, that you’re not required to love Mark if you love Derek”
Thank goodness because I’m not a big Mark fan.
Cindy, I saw the link to that radio interview, and I struggled through all of the first part, and by the second part, I just COULDN’T listen any longer, and ended up turning it off, so I missed what she said about Mark. Holy cow!!! If what she said about Mark was anything like the parts I did hear, I doubt it’ll be allowed to be typed out here. I was surprised that she said she was single, because I thought she had a bf?
As for Mark, I do agree with Heidi’s comment, “that you’re not required to love Mark if you love Derek” is right on…. Honestly, back in season 5, I think that was true, people liked Mark because of the Houghs, and people liked the Houghs because of Mark, and they were pretty much a package deal. But since then, there’s a lot of seasons, and a lot of water under the bridge, and it’s definitely not a package deal with the 3 anymore. I think there’s probably as many Hough fans who won’t automatically vote for Mark, as there is Mark fans who won’t automatically vote for a Hough, should the situation be reversed. And if it’s not obvious, I still do consider Derek and Julianne a package deal….
And like Heidi, I think right now, I’m pulling for Kirstie and Maks. After them, I think Sugar Ray and Anna, and Hines and Kym, and Ralph and Karina.
But its was u, Heidi, who said Mark is “profiting” from Derek’s friendship. Hell NO!
Anyways, I only watch DWTS because of Maks, Tony and Mark…I don’t care about female pros at all.
@cindy – That was definitely one of the most interesting DWTS-related interviews I’ve ever heard
I thought Mike was a riot. I think I may throw a few votes his way just to keep him around and cracking jokes for a few weeks! Haha. As for Lacey…and her comment about Mark…ai ai ai. I am no prude, but I definitely got a little squeamish about that one. I have to wonder if it’s true or not, or Lacey just being outrageous for the sake of attention. I can’t imagine any guy not in the adult film industry would be so vocal (and proud!) about having the ability to do…that. *cringe* *shudder* Anywho…did Lacey say she was single? I thought she was still with DJ Guthrie…I could have sworn he tweeted pix of her dogs the other day. I thought they were living together. Who knows…that interview just discombobulated me beyond belief. 
@Maddy – Do you have some sort of personal beef with Heidi? I just feel like every time you comment now, it’s some sort of assault against her. I suggest you evaluate whether your issues are truly with her opinions, or if you’re just looking to pick a fight with her in general. You’re getting awfully accusatory these days.
Nope…. but she does writes mean things about every male pro who’s not Derek….
Oh Cindy, I finally had time to listen to the audio with Lacey. Oh boy, these two are going to get edgy, aren’t they? lol Thanks for posting. We will get this up as soon as we can!!
Lori: “And like Heidi, I think right now, I’m pulling for Kirstie and Maks. After them, I think Sugar Ray and Anna, and Hines and Kym, and Ralph and Karina.”
This is how it’s going down for my faves too right now.
Maddy, not true!!! Even if was true, Heidi has a right to favor and not favor who she wants just like I’m sure YOU do.
Maddy: First off, you only need to hit submit ONCE. Secondly, we ALL have criticism for ALL the pros – it’s not just Heidi writing “mean things about every male pro who’s not Derek”. So if you’re only targeting her for that – then yes, you do have a personal problem with her. Please make that distinction. And if you think Heidi saying that she “doesn’t have to like Mark just because she likes Derek” is mean, then you’re being hypersensitive. I think it’s ludicrous that anyone would expect Derek fans to also be supportive of Mark – it’s not a package deal. You can like one and not like the other. And as for Mark “profiting” from Derek’s friendship – it may not be monetary, but I certainly do think he benefits from it. Derek has always been supportive of Mark, whether it’s tweeting congrats on his new album or urging people vote for him & his partner. I’d say that’s benefit, Maddy.
Yes, Maddy, that was me – and I do think it’s true. And boo fucking hoo if you think that’s mean.
ETA: I should also mention that right now I’m miss sunshine and light – hell, Maks is currently my favorite male! – so if you think I’m being mean NOW, you best step away from the computer.
Courtney:
I don’t think people are very opinionated about your rankings, you know?
I’ve never seen a season without Derek and this seems to have thrown a wrench into it. I am excited to see some good dancing. I’m not excited for any runaway trains that may highjack the season. Just give me one or two train wreck cheesecake awards, though!
My comments were more in general than directed at one person, although I can see why it would seem to be the case since I defended Mark a bit – but the whole thing was really more about sentiments that I’ve seen all over the interweb – from the ABC boards to twitter to here. Again, I like Derek more than I like Mark, but I do like Mark sometimes and I don’t think those things have to be mutually exclusive – but it often seems to be the case for many fans lately – and while a certain amount of rivalry is fun for a lot of people, it often resorts to personal attacks and I just don’t understand it. Then again, I’m one of the few mega sports fans that doesn’t smack talk – at all. Even with stupid Cubs fans (haha – see what I did there?!!)
Just my style, I suppose. But I realize that just enjoying the show and the people on it without getting to invested in it may not be for everyone. 
Wow, that radio interview with Lacey was pretty crazy. I’m 99% sure she’s just joking with the part about Mark. I hope anyway.
[...] everyone for the great feedback from part I of my preliminary power rankings A lot of you brought up some really interesting points that got me thinking (and sometimes [...]
Wow, I read part 2 before part 1, and it seems like a really lively discussion. I have to agree with Heidi, I don’t see Mark Ballas and Chelsea necessarily getting top spot, because I think the fan base is vulnerable comparing the considerable fan base of the NFL. I also believe Kendra and Louis will be doing the kind of dancing Louis wishes he could have done with Kelly Osbourne. Kendra has this “go for it” quality that Louis will definitely exploit. Romeo and Chelsea are very cute together, but Romeo’s urban vibe doesn’t translate that well to Ballroom. Small doses.
Speaking of which I am cracking up over Kirstie Alley she is a hoot and will stay, at least to top 5.
And as I mentioned on the Part 2 discussion, I see Hines winning.
@Rory she wanted to quit after she heard about the Japan tsunami
Ok, probably late to the game, but that was disgusting what Lacey said Mark could do. I don’t even know if she was joking or not… i hope joking. For those that don’t want to listen or couldn’t stand it anymore, she basically said that Mike wanted to become more flexible so that he could bend over and give himself a ‘you-know-what’ ( I don’t know if this site is PG13 or what, lol!) and lacey said that Mark was that flexible and that he could do that. Mike didn’t believe her so she asked Mark to come in and show them and he did! She said that Mark just whipped it out and did it. I hope she was joking because she’s the one who brought Mark into the convo. I’d be pissed if I was Mark and she was talking about that.
Great rankings, Courtney!! Even though I do think Wendy is a better mover then shes given credit for going by the fottage I saw. Kristie Alley is MUCH better than I expected even if her butt is huge. Oops…
I never said that 
. Hines REALLY impressed me too. Dark Horse. 