DWTS12 Preliminary Power Rankings – Part II
Thanks everyone for the great feedback from part I of my preliminary power rankings 
A lot of you brought up some really interesting points that got me thinking (and sometimes reconsidering) my predictions! Keep the interesting discussion going, as I reveal my predictions for the top half o’ the pack Onward!
6.) Chris Jericho & Cheryl Burke - I know a lot of you probably aren’t expecting Chris to do exceedingly well on the show, but I don’t think we can overlook the fact that he has (statistically speaking) the strongest female pro this season. Cheryl has an extremely good track record for taking even the most mediocre partners decently far – only twice in her 11 seasons on the show has she not made it past the halfway point (and one of those times was actually a withdrawal due to injury). I think she may also be the most popular female pro on the show this season, and has amassed a quite fervent fanbase over the year. And really, after watching Chris’ rehearsal video – I really don’t think the guy is a total loss. He was moving decently well, and I get the impression that he’s really excited to be on the show this season – that enthusiasm alone is an asset, as I think he will put in the practice hours to really do well. As for athleticism – I think he could be the best lifter this season, as he’s had years of practice body-slamming his WWE opponents 
Hehe. I think he’ll at least make it to the halfway point of the show, but he may not be able to overcome more skilled dancers and fan favorites such as…
5.) Kirstie Alley & Maksim Chmerkovskiy – Do I think Kirstie will be this season’s Nicole/Jennifer/Kristi? Hell no. But I could see her being another Ty Murray – an unlikely favorite that people keep around week after week because they’re just so damn LIKEABLE. Kirstie may be the contestant who’s gotten the most buzz this season – did you notice how she was the only one getting asked questions during the cast announcement press conference? And like Petra, Kirstie is also dancing for a “cause” – losing weight. What middle-aged housewife (the largest cross-section of DWTS viewers) hasn’t at one time or another struggled with their weight? I think this lends a very relatable, human quality to Kirstie – and people love an “average Joe” underdog. And really – Kirstie is a HOOT. She may be the second coming of Cloris Leachman, with some of the outrageous stuff that comes out of her mouth! She’s actually a pretty good dancer too – at least judging from her rehearsal tapes. I think her biggest struggle is going to be stamina, because she seemed to get winded after about 30 seconds of dancing. I hope for her sake that she doesn’t get the jive until later this season, when she’s worked on her endurance. Luckily, she has one of the most popular male pros to help her out, and I really think Maks is more of an asset now than ever before – with Derek gone, I think he may be the most consistently good choreographer on the show. Let’s just hope he can cut back on the “fluff” that Len hates…then again, we do have Dmitry for that this season Haha.
4.) Romeo & Chelsie Hightower – Another couple that I’m sure no one is expecting a whole lot out of – but I think Romeo might be a “late bloomer” on this show, and won’t show his true ability until at least the midpoint of the season. I know a lot of people have commented that Romeo seems to be “too cool for school” or seems a bit arrogant – and I agree, to a certain point. I think he’s putting up a front for now, since he’s got his hip-hop reputation to protect; but I think he’s also got an ego, and won’t deliberately throw the competition like his dad. And don’t let his rehearsal tape fool you – Romeo does have some dance moves, and was even in the movie Honey. He also played basketball at USC, so the dude is an athlete. I get the feeling he may be downplaying his dance experience a bit, just in case he isn’t very good, but as the season wears on and he gets more comfortable, I think we’ll start seeing a lot more energy & expression out of him. He’s got an advantage in Chelsie, who is the resident blonde, Mormon girl-next-door; she’s gotten stuck with some real stinkers as partners the past few seasons, so I have a feeling her fans might rally & keep her around a bit longer this time. She also has a real knack for concealing the true craptastic-ness (yeah, I made it up) of some of her less-skilled partners…except for that “Hound Dog” jive. *shudder*
3.) Kendra Wilkinson & Louis Van Amstel – Despite Louis’ own assertion that Kendra is a “front-runner” this season, I think she may very well fall short of the MBT…and I’m afraid it will be his fault. No doubt Kendra can move, and I’m sure she’ll bring a lot of personality to her performances. I just hope that Louis isn’t digging both of them into a hole with all the bravado he’s been throwing around - Louis isn’t the most popular pro to begin with, and if he keeps up with the smug tweeting and cocky comments during interviews, I could see people turning against this pair. I actually feel a bit bad for Kendra – she seems a bit nervous with all the pressure being put on her to live up to people’s expectations, and I think Louis is just reinforcing that pressure at this point. I hope he can really give her some dynamite choreography too, as he has tended a bit towards the silly & ridiculous in recent seasons…and I wasn’t particularly wowed by some of the routines he gave Kelly, either. As for Kendra herself – I think she’ll be likeable enough. As we’ve seen before, a Playboy past isn’t necessarily a death sentence on the show – Kelly Monaco went on to win her season, Pam Anderson stuck around for awhile, and Joanna Krupa made it all the way to the semifinals. What IS the kiss of death, though, is lack of personality - which is exactly what sent her friend Holly Madison home. With both moves and personality, I think she’ll be quite successful this season.
2.) Hines Ward & Kym Johnson – Of all the rehearsal videos, these two were the ones that impressed me the most. Hines has both dance skill and the entertainment factor – he moves well, and he’s fun to watch. Definitely a pleasant surprise for me, considering I was worried about him being too laid back! He may not be as funny to watch as Warren was (still my favorite of all Kym’s parters), but he does look like he’s having a lot of fun. Hines also has atheticism on his side, plus a legion of fiercely devoted Steelers fans – seriously, I think it borders on insanity sometimes And really – no NFL player that’s been on the show has ever truly sucked. Kym is also a well-liked pro, and it seems like many of her fans are determined to keep her on the show longer this season after her first-week ousting last season (thanks, Hoff). I think Kym has a pretty good shot of making it to the finals this year with Hines, but I think they’re going to come up a bit short if they’re up against….
1.) Chelsea Kane & Mark Ballas – Yes, pick your jaw up off of the floor, I honestly think these two could win this season. Chelsea’s young, wholesome, and not totally inept in the dancing department; Mark is probably tied with Maks for “most popular male pro” this season. Now I’m not saying that being a “Disney kid” is a shoo-in to the finale – but it certainly doesn’t seem to hurt, either. Sabrina, Cody, & Kyle all managed to make it at least halfway through their respective seasons. Something about child stars and their ability to really play to a crowd seems to really be a boon for them on DWTS…plus they all just seem so LIKEABLE. I never got the arrogant vibe from any of the names I mentioned above. They all just seemed so happy to be on the show, like each dance was the most fun they’d ever had their life. Mark is a pro that always seems to do better with a partner with at least a little dance experience – I think we’ll see him back at 100% this season (if he can manage to set aside his music career for a few months…) with a renewed interest in the show. If he can get Chelsea to the finale, I think he’s likely the strongest freestyle choreographer on the show this season – and like we always say, the freestyle can really make it or break for finalists. And the showmance rumors that are likely starting to brew always seem to pique public interest too…if Mark plays this up (more like WHEN Mark plays this up!), they could eek out a few weeks based solely on the curiousity of viewers
Alright gang, so ends my official “pre-season” predictions. Will they change? Of course. But is it a good catalyst for discussion? Heck yah!!! So who do you guys see making the finale? And who do you think will take the MBT this season? DISCUSS!
I agree w most of this. The only thing I diagree with is maybe Kirstie getting 4th (if Marie O can make the final 3 anything is possible since she can dance like Marie could and has the boisterous personality that is even bigger than Maries so thats my reasoning for that), Ralph getting 2nd and Chris Jerhico getting the spot u had ralph in, Hines getting 5th place based on the fact I don’t see much of a personality in him, and I think Kendra is making the finals for sure. She is probably one of the biggest names there and from the rehersal studd can dance. Still think that Chesea is probably going to win but hoping for a win from Ralph or Kendra.
I just feel bad for Tony though. The producer could have given him Petra and Dymetry could have gotten Wendy. Tony is one of my fav pros on the show and I really think that with the right parter he could win (ex. Stacy, Mellisa, and Audrina were great as weas Marisa J.W…….who I really think deserved higher scores than they gave her since I though she really improved soo much week to week but that’s just my opinion). Plus, Tony could really make Petra look good like he did for sara evans and his other partners since he really personalizes the routines for them (notable exception was the fresstyles he ddi though….those were jsut weird and didn’t suit Stacey and Mellissa’s personites at all). Chris’s biggest assets r the fact that he is a popular WWE figure and he has Cheryl. As for Hines, I think he is a nice guy and all but I feel like he will be lost in the shuffle of everything since he has a pretty quiet personailty. Looking back, the ones that reallt have made it to the final 6 had really unique, fun, and loud personalities.
Another great post Courtney, and I agree with most of your reasoning. However, I think Hines & Kym may eek out the win this season. He seems to have the whole package – athleticism, good lookin’, strong training habits, right attitude, personality, winning smile … and a great partner. The more I see of them, the more I like them. I also think Vin might be right in putting Kirstie in the top 3 – we’ll have to see how she holds up stamina-wise. I like Kendra, but she appears the most “stressed” ? “nervous” ? and Louis is not helping. As many have said all along, Kendra’s biggest hurdle will definitely be Louis. He’s very intense … not what Kendra needs right now. Wendy, on the other hand, could probably use a little more intense, I think.
I would probably switch Chris & Ralph, but that’s probably my sentimental side speaking
I really want very much for him to do well, and I do think they’ve paired him up with the right partner. I’m not a huge Karina fan, but I like her for Ralph.
Is it Monday yet ???
Ladtly, I would love to see a final 6 of : Ralph, Kirstie, Kendra, Chelsea, Sugar Ray, and Hines (dude can really move but liek i said before eprsoanlity wise he is kinda too quiet)
Not sure, just watched Mark and Chelsea’s rehearsal video and it was not spectacular plus there are a lot of ringer rumors surrounding her because her years in musical theater.
Great list!
If that video that is going around of 2 girls doing cocaine really is Chelsea like they say it is, and the general public gets wind of it that could really hurt her. I’ve seen the blurred version of the video, and honestly can’t tell you whether it is her or not, but even the possibility of it could hurt her.
I like the top 4 but in a different order. I could see Hines winning the whole thing . He’s quiet in the interviews, but if I recall Emmit Smith was like this, a more easy self-effacing humor about him. I say look out, if the NFL has someone to really root for the fan base is going places. Hines is going to show us first instead of talk about it and I kinda dig that. I think the guy’s personality will unfold as the season goes on and he’ll become more endearing as the weeks go by. Also of all the footballers, Emmit and Jason Taylor included, this guy has real natural ability and flow to his dancing, so for me more impressive since there’s not the great height differences to overcome. And Kym is just a better partner than Edyta. He’s already got the Steelers Nation behind them, and they want to avenge the super bowl.
I could also see Kendra coming in 2nd place, especially if Louis lets loose with something interesting to share. He did some nice things with Monique Coleman, but she was too much a perfectionist and didn’t go for it. Kendra seems very different, willing to do anything. Louis will make sure of it.
I think 3rd is a toss up between Chelsea and Romeo. Romeo is looking “all right” but he seems a little urban, he’s got to really want to Latin and Ballroom dance to make it work. So he’s got to shake off the vibe, and just get it. Chelsie’s a dancer, it’s obvious she could win but it feels like a pre-packaged “here’s your winner on a platter, Mark…”and since Gilles Marini almost caught Mark and Shawn, I think Chelsea is more vulnerable because she does not have an Olympic sized fan base.
Oh, and I agree with 6th and 5th. The placement seems right.
Also, Kym does great Freestyles when there’s a partner who can keep up. My all time fave is Joey and Kym’s Last Dance from season 4.
I think Hiney-Kym could really do well
Where does it say that Chelsea Kane is a dancer? I keep seeing people talk about it but that seems to have come out of nowhere, as far as I can tell. People just assume that she’s a dancer cause she sings for Disney but I’ve never seen her dance other than at a party. The people that I know that started that talk really hate Mark so they want to make Chelsea look like a ringer. Not saying that it isn’t absolutely true, but I’ve never seen anything to prove it.
I think Chelsea will be runner up to Hines and Kim.
Great post Courtney, can’t wait to see them dancing now !
Oh, boy –
KarlaJen is the second person I heard the cocaine rumor from – not good. Although, maybe the first person I heard it from read it here – entirely possible, I supposed.OTHER than that daunting possibility, when you lay it all out like Courtney just did, it almost seems like a forgone conclusion with Chelsea. Mark does do well if his partner has talent to begin with. Except Sabrina, of course.
@Figmentation, I saw her rehearsal footage and I do believe there’s dance training there, not that it’s being a ringer, but there’s definitely a quality to her finishes that training brings. It may be something like Musical Theatre in which the director watches for aspects of movement instead of repetitive dance studio practice, but there’s an ease and comfort that is beyond say, someone like Brooke Burke, who although moved very well through the core, didn’t have the flow initially in her first Cha Cha that someone with training would have.
Welcome to the club, Fig – happens to Derek every season and it’s usually the Mark and Maks fans behind it.
I have to agree that Kym can do a great freestyle – I sure wouldn’t count Hines out, thanks to the Steeler Nation. Thing is, having just lost the Superbowl, those fans have something to prove.
I’d just change ralph to the final five and kirstie (or maybe wendy) at number 6…
I agree with the top 4 (not sure about the positions) and have the same impressions you had, courtney, about louis. not about his cocky comments, but all that sentimental drama he does with all his partners since kelly o. =p
Mark’s freestyle for Bristol was not good last season, Mark is not a shoe in for a great freestyle.
Regarding the alleged Chelsea cocaine snorting video – have any of you actually seen it? It’s supposedly “all over YouTube”, but I only found one person that had it…and the quality was piss-poor with no sound, and the girls’ faces were blurred out. I investigated further, and I guess it originated as a leak from Radar Online that simply said it was “two young celebrities”. My question is – who took it a step further and claimed it was Chelsea? Seems like very little evidence to say definitively that it was her…what, some blonde hair and a claim from an anonymous insider is enough to confirm identity these days? I find it a bit fishy that this video all of a sudden surfaced just days before the show starts…methinks there may be some mudslinging going on here. I’m very, very skeptical.
I’ve seen the video of the girls snorting coke and I’m sorry but there’s NO way to tell who it is. NONE. I’m not saying it’s not true, but based on the video with blurred out faces – it’s a thin blond girl. Could it be her? Sure! But just like all things I’m not going to condemn her before I see proof. That being said, I wouldn’t condemn her anyway – a Disney starlet doing coke? Get outta here! But I do agree that some people wouldn’t approve and they’d perhaps lose some votes.
Heidi – I have always hated the people that overstate the experience other celebs have had (like they did with Joanna who did ballet as a very young girl). I have even seen Bristol fans that are talking about Chelsea’s VAST amount of experience – mostly because they realize how she’s going to make Bristol’s dancing look like shit with the same partner. Most of them were shippers that are bitter that Mark and Bristol never ended up together and they blame him for being unworthy of HER. Not that I think either of them are the ultimate prize, I just think this behavior out of fans is disgusting – no matter who is the target.
I think I like everyone this season – maybe Wendy Williams less than everyone else. Plus she’s paired with one of my least favorite pro’s so I hope she’s one of the first to go
I hope Ralph at least makes the semi’s but I think he’s definitely not a shoe-in, and otherwise I’m rooting for so many of them I have a hard time saying who I WANT to win. I think Hines, Chelsea, Kendra, Romeo, and Kirstie all will likely contend. But I still don’t think Sugar Ray, Chris, etc should be counted out. I would love for Maks, Karina, Anna, and Chelsie to get a shot at the MBT this year
I like what I see of Chelsea Kane so far but I do get tired of Mark’s choreography so I’m not as excited about them.
Regarding the cocaine rumor- you never know, how people are fascinated with the likes of Charlie Sheen and Lindsey Lohan it could be her ticket to greater success. If it is her of course (which I’m not saying it is, I have no clue).
Personally I am not shaulustig and I tend to avoid any press about a person with issues but I seem to be in a small majority.
My picks look something like this:
Hines
Kendra
Kirstie
Ralph
Sugar Ray
Chelsea
Mike
Romeo
Petra
Chris
Wendy
True, Karla – but Bristol also had little natural ability to be entertaining. If Chelsea has some natural talent, then Mark can put together a good freestyle – probably. I’d say he’s 2 for 3 right now, which is better than some.
Well, it’s “all over youtube” if the views are growing very fast. As for the rest of it, it did cross my mind that someone who is anti-Mark and Chelsea could have started that. If so…well, we’ve stooped to all new lows folks and all over a damn dancing show.
@Karla – I think you mean “shoo-in”, and you must’ve skipped over the part where we mentioned that Mark does well WHEN HE HAS SOMEONE WITH SOME DANCE SKILL. His freestyles for Kristi & Shawn were fantastic – far better than a good portion of the other pros this season have been able to churn out in the past. Kym is a close second; Lacey, maybe 3rd. Guess I can look forward to another season of you taking things out of context.
Hm, small majority?
I’m laughing at myself and my stupidity, sometimes my English just goes down the drain.
I wanted to say minority.
Yeah his freestyle with Bristol was only bad because SHE was bad – and he knew that he had to do something to set them apart from much better and more entertaining dancers. I thought it was a smart move, honestly. And his freestyle with Shawn was AMAZING. He is definitely one of the better freestyle pros – as are Derek (dur), Lacey and Kym.
My money is on Hines. Yes he’s quiet in interviews, but just wait until you see how hilarious he and Kym are in rehearsal! And the man has Serious talent. No opinion on Chelsea yet at all, so can’t say about her. Chris and Cheryl are great together, he’s really trying hard. I think you have Romeo too high – he’s not trying as hard as many of the others and not going big enough with his moves. Of course that might change as the season goes on if given enough time. And he and Chelsie are pretty cute together as well.
Fig, this has annoyed me for seasons now – which is why I stay away from the ABC boards. It’s just moronic most of the time. Joanna a ringer because she took ballet up until she was 11?? In what universe?? Melissa and Erin were more ringer-ish than her and the same people bitching about Joanna didn’t say a word about either of them. It’s crazy. The Bristol fans upset about Chelsea supposedly having experience?? Sounds a tad delusional to me.
It’s always something in the fan groups. Don’t tell anyone, but I regularly get annoyed with Derek fans as well.
That’s what you get for running a blog. I even sympathized with Maks over the winter when he was getting serious hate tweets – I think he’s second only to Derek in nasty tweets. Seriously, I have to ask – what kind of sicko only signs up to twitter in order to constantly spew hate at someone?? Both Maks and Derek have had this issue and it just amazes me that people have so much time and so much immaturity that they will follow someone on twitter just to be nasty to them. And I’m not talking ONE tweet, I’m talking daily nastiness.
@Figmentation, I am not taking anything out of context, it is a well known fact of Chelsea’s bio that she has a lot of Musical Theatre. She’s not standing there all the time belting out show tunes, she’s moving to choreographed routines in musical theatre.
Nice ranking on your 2nd part. It is nice to see blogs like this that take time to write what they think can happen before the show starts. Nice place where you have Hines hope that changes to the top if he’s that great this seasson. Deena Kats was spot on to get him for this season. I heard about that Chelsea Kane rumor about coke hope it’s not true. Yet, I have seen pictures online of her on top of girls and having fun like a party girl. She’s not like a saint even if she does Disney. She is 22 so she is an adult and young girls have fun I guess. Her and Mark will be good only time will tell if they win or not. Since like everyone says she has Mark and the Mark fans no how to power vote and all.Kristie and Maks hope they have great chance in winning the trophy since they look like the ones I want to watch for fun. In DWTS it’s not always about the dancing so hope they have shot as Bristol and Marie made top 3 so anything is possible on this show. Even though Cheryl Burke is a popular I keep forgetting she’s on this season with a wrestler. Hope I don’t forget them come Monday. Same can be said about Chelsie and Romeo.
Have you ever done musical theater, or seen it? There are PLENTY of people that are in musical theater that never dance a step and only sing. Of course *some* productions call for dancing out of the whole cast, or the stars – while others have almost no dancing whatsoever. So until you’ve seen her dance prior to DWTS, or she says she has done it – that’s no proof whatsoever. Again, not saying that she DOESN’T have the experience – but I am saying you’ve not proven to me, nor have I seen it that she has done it.
oh, guys, i think almost all Maksim’s choreographies sucked last couple seasons… very repetitive.
Somewhere along the way, we need to define ‘dance experience’ for these ringer discussions. Maybe if there is a common starting ground, everyone can battle from there. Per the Jennifer discussions last year, Ralph should be a ringer. Learned to dance – even just one scene – for a movie 20 years ago. Some of the younger stars are closer to the age (ie 8-12) where every little girl takes dance lessons – do ballet classes 10 years ago count? Broadway/Musical theater is similar to what Donny did for many years – does that count for Chelsea?
I trust that the judges will balance it all out. They’ll give higher scores that they deserve to the dancers that struggle but are trying and balance that out with ‘average’ scores for those who excel at the beginning.
And just my two cents on the Louis thing, it will be interesting to watch – I’ve always assumed that like Corky, he tries to hide his partner’s weaknesses in fluff and over the top choreography – but with a partner with potential, will he step up his game and choreograph to let their dance skills shine? That’s what the really good pro’s do – design dances that make their stars look GREAT. Corky didn’t do that with Florence – she actually had talent and if he had stopped with the theatrics, she might have gone further.
Great post – love it!! Can’t wait for monday….
Courtney I was really looking forward to seeing how you placed this round. Tough, tough call. I’m getting a gut instinct that Chris and Cheryl might be able to outlast Chelsie and Romeo. In the footage I have really liked Chris (I hate wrestling). Cheryl can definitely garner the votes, so I’m thinking this is a possibility. Kirsty is going to have the fan base and I think the entertainment factor. My concern on her is when we get to the two dance stage, will her stamina hold? I do think she can dance but her age is a disadvantage later on. I agree with your placement of Kendra. I personally like Louis, but he does seem to have a talent for shooting himself (and his partner) in the foot. I also still think that Kendra is going to have a disadvantage with the playboy past. In the video she can move her hips and butt, but doesn’t appear graceful-that will hurt her in ballroom. Now Hines and Chelsea? I like your placings-don’t know whether it will happen or not. The NFL is a formidable force for certain. Plus Hines seems likable-maybe not a Kurt Warner, but likable. he also appears to move better than Kurt. Given that, the NFL has not pulled out a win in a while. So perhaps, just perhaps, their power is not what it was. I love, love, love Kym Johnson. She does good freestyles, but I’m not sure she can beat Mark in the freestyle choreography department. Chelsea and Mark seem to be a strong dance couple and at least to most of the people I’ve talked to-have the likablility factor. She has a pretty devoted fan base-still not completely certain just how big that is. Mark’s choreography is solid, especially when he has a partner who knows how to perform and sell it. I do give them the advantage in the final due to his freestyles. I’m liking Hines and I’m liking Chelsea, so I could be happy with either winning. Hopefully you nailed the top five again, barring another season like Season 11.
I’m glad to hear Buttercup is picking Hines-e-Kym like I am this season! Ooh, that reminds me… think I need to go to the Beer and Wine store to pick up goodies for Monday night!
@ carlos: While I may not be mak’s fan, I can honestly say Maks’ chreo is top notch. He gave Brandy and Erin amazing chreography and is at the top of his game (w notable exception of brandy’s jive but it might have been the song since its pretty horrible). Top of his game nonetheless.
The cocaine rumor is kinda weird since its so close to the begining of the show. Mark is one of my favs but I can already see the cries of ringer. Now people can see what derek had to put up with while paired w nicole and jenniffer. Yet, I Really hope that if it is her she adresses it fast cuz if its her this could hurt her this season. I really hope it doesn’t since she seems to move very easily and has a really cool and sweet ShawnJohnsonlike persoanilty. I can bet the girl never expected all the ringer backlash.
As for Mark’s freestyles, I liked them all. Kristi’s was AMAZING and probably one of the best freestyles the show has ahd (the other best ones belong to derek and brooke, derek and jenniffer, and kym and donny…..my fav of them all), Shawn’s was really cool and played to her strengths. As for Bristol’s, I can see the logic behinf it. Her best dances were the tango and paso if i remeber correctly. As a result, he knew what he had to do for the freestyle to get a good score from the judges…..simple as that. She did a good job and while it wasn’t great it was commendable.
Another fantastic post, Courtney…I LOVE the conversation that has ensued!!! Mark being my fav, I’m hoping for a good showing but I do think Hines can and probably will, give him a run for the money! Heidi brings up a really important fact; this ringer thing seems highly objective. She’s absolutely right that Melissa and Erin had previous dance experience and very little was ever spoken of it. Melissa probably had the most recent during her season as she had been a Cowboy’s cheerleader and no one was screaming ringer!!! I’m sure she had more “choreography” than Chelsea has had, even doing the musical theatre but I can hear the proclamations now! None-the-less, I’m really looking forward to the weeks to come and hope it’s a lot more level than we think going into these first few weeks. I think that’d be a very nice change. Thanks again everyone for the entertaining banter. I’m enjoying it immensely
I think ringer status only works if you can actually move in the ballroom like you’ve done it before. Erin looked quite awkward so I think that’s why people didn’t give her a hard time about previous experience. Even though, the ringer issue was brought up every now and then for both her and Melissa. As for Melissa, if I remember correctly both her and Gilles were brought in last minute with very little rehearsal time. So I, and maybe others too, thought to myself- good move for bringing people who have some good ability because otherwise they would be at a significant disadvantage compared to others who had been rehearsing for weeks.
I would say the truest ringers were: NIcole, Sabrina, Kristi, Maya, Evan, Lance.
Good job, Courtney!! I might not agree with it all, but I appreciate all the logic and thought that went into it. Brava!!
Now, that being said, I just saw Hines and Kym on ET and I couldn’t understand a damned word that Hines said! Talk about a Mumbleford! I don’t think he has anywhere the engagingness ( I know it’s not a word, but work with me here) that Emmitt had or the old-fashioned charm and gallantry that Kurt had last season. I’m not saying he’s not a nice/good guy, just that… he doesn’t stand out, personality-wise for me.
Now, Chris Jericho? The dude can be a charmer and he’s funny and there’s a sweetness about him, so… I have a feeling he might do better than you think.
I’m glad to see that you put Mark and Chelsea at the top spot. He certainly can win with her and his choreography is young and energetic and he sees what the problems are and does his best to draw the eyes away from them. Yeah, I think they can win too.
As for ‘ringerness’ (again, work with me), as I’ve often been told, even if you have some previous dance experience – not 20 years of classes and competitions and stuff – ballroom dancing is a whole ‘nother ball of wax. It’d be like taking a hockey player and throwing him on a baseball diamond and expecting him to excel – or vice versa. So… Nope, only ringers for me over the seasons were Mya and Nicole. Hell, no one called Marisa a ringer and she has lots of musical theatre background, doesn’t she?
Chris is a total mystery to me. I’ve put him way down on my list because that way I got some room for arranging others, but honestly he could go week 1 or stay till the end as far as I can guess. Pros: Cheryl, charm. Cons: weak voting background, questionable dancing ability. He does try so maybe he will the one that improves drastically.
Hines is very engaging and charming. I think Kym’s freestyles were better than any of Mark’s. His are high energy but Kym’s are high energy plus interesting lifts that are seamless. There are lifts but not too much. Kym knows how to make her partners shine. I am not sure Mark can do that without dancing around his partners. He like Maks tends to repeat a lot of the same moves and choreography.
Chelsea is a contender but while I love Courtney’s hard work, I hope Hines wins. I think he is as engaging as Kurt. I can see the public being “wow” kinda the same way they were with Emmitt. No one thought he could move like that and I had the same feeling with Hines.
As for the Chelsea rumor, it was a blind item from what I saw on-line. I don’t think any Derek fan started it. Rather it seems like many put two and two together regarding the Disney star mention.
I am rooting for Hines, but I must say that I think Ralph is being a bit underestimated. It isn’t just Karate Kid but The Outsiders and My Cousin Vinny. The Outsiders in particular is also a beloved film. I think Romeo can be a surprise elimination. It seems like hip hop and/or r and b stars do not have the fan base to make it to the top 3. I think Lil Kim and Mario both left in the top 5. But Toni Braxton eliminated a bit early. Brandy as a surprise elimination in the final 4.
The other dark horse is Chris Jericho.
I like your rankings Courtney, completely agree with you. I hope Chelsea and Mark pull out the win as of now, but I’m really liking Kendra, Ralph and Hines as well. Judging from their rehearsals alone, Chelsea can definitely move beautifully, and Kendra can too. Ralph can be a little stiff but I can see him improving and doing great. Hines has got serious rhythm and he’s very likable. Kirstie actually surprised me, she may actually dance pretty well. Petra may have looked pretty bad in her first rehearsal video, but the one E! showed was much better and gave me hope for her.
I really don’t think that the “coke smoker” was Chelsea. She does party and have fun, but I’ve followed her career ever since it started, and I honestly think she’s too good for that. Not saying it 100% isn’t her, because you can’t tell, but it’s unlikely.
My opinion about “ringer” is that it completely depends on how much experience they actually have. Lance, Sabrina, Mya, Nicole, Kristi and Evan were the only ones I considered ringers. Lance, Mya, and Nicole had to dance quite often even though it was not ballroom or latin, it definitely helped all 3 follow choreography and follow the music well. Sabrina was a pro hip hop dancer, and even though it’s hard to switch from hip hop to ballroom, it certainly helps overall. As much as many Kristi and Mark and “Evanna” fans wanna deny it, Kristi and Evan were definitely helped out by their figure skating. It requires grace, elegance, and at least some dance ability. Also, notice Kristi and Evan were both impeccable technicians, and their figure skating had a part in that I believe, because figure skating requires lots of structure and knowing how your body works, like dancing.
So actually, I think the playing field is pretty even this season, so I’m excited
Great thoughts, all. I do think Kirstie Alley will be treated with kid gloves by the judges and thus last longer than we might expect. She won’t get the Michael Bolton treatment. ABC wants her for rating and there is a respect factor that Tom Bergeron demonstrated. Otherwise, it’s hard to say. No Nicole, Mya, Mel B, Kristi Y in this crew. But, please, producers, just once give Chelsie some one who can GO ALL THE WAY. Kym and Cheryl obviously are great partners, talented, crowd pleasers, no excessive drama.
Anyone who can do this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33aDa1dIH10
is likely to do well on DWTS.
Oh yeah, I forgot about Mel B. She was obviously a big ringer.
I think that having some chunk but moving freely despite it is a big plus and a relatable quality for the viewers. I’m thinking Kyle, Warren.. Kirstie should also benefit from it.
Not to mention a gymnast doing lifts and flips in a freestyle? How is that a surprise that Shawn had a fun freestyle with tons of tricks. Chelsea’s musical theater experience is interesting and curious to see if that gets louder if she comes out really well in week one. I am guessing the judges will always score her high enough to keep her around.
I think ice skaters and singer/dancers have a bigger advantage then gymnasts. Of course gymnasts have a significant advantage over models or cowboys but they do not learn to express through music and are more mechanical in their movement which sometimes can be a disadvantage. Dancing is all about connecting one move to the next one and in gymnastics you do the opposite- stand and prepare.
Of course in freestyle a gymnast can really shine, but on the other hand- it’s been done before. We’ve seen flicks and tricks so it would be old news by now.
I’m a former gymnast and I can attest that while there’s a lot to be said for the muscle control and memory that you develop, it’s hard for me to call Shawn a ringer – where I do think she had the advantage of other athletes was her age. No one wanted a little 17 year old olympian to go home. But she had a distinct lack of artistry and style in her dancing early on – precise, but more mechanical than fluid. The floor exercises she has done aren’t “dancing” and Shawn’s always been criticized for having powerful but not very artistic moves. Nastia however, looks and moves like a dancer. Shawn moves like an athlete. Especially considering that Melissa came in with lots of dance experience, it’s hard for me to call Shawn a ringer – and taking into account that she was pretty middle of the pack for many weeks of the competition. But she got much better at the right time and rode that wave (and her freestyle) to win. Don’t get me wrong – she had advantages that some contestants haven’t had – I am just hard pressed to call Shawn a ringer. HOWEVER Mark did have two ringers in Sabrina and Kristi.
For me the contestants that came in with way bigger advantages than most were Mario Lopez, Mel B, Nicole, Kristi, Sabrina, and Mya. Especially Mya, the dance teacher lol. However, I’m not complaining about these people being included. Nicole had heavy competition from Evan, who probably would have won most any other season. Kristi was in one of the duller seasons – but otherwise none of the other ringers have won! So I don’t think there’s much to complain about
My apologies. I haven’t had a chance to read this post and thread all day!! Courtney, excellent Part two. I’m with you. Even though I don’t want it to happen this way, I have a feeling Mark and Chelsea are going to take the Mirror Ball this year from the footage we’ve seen so far. I’m hoping Maks and Kirstie will be the dark horse and take it. But, if not, I hope they atleast make it to third. Hey, if Marie Osmond and Kelly Osbourne could do so, she can too.
Loves everyone’s thoughts. This Season is fun because the contestants are all so even. It’s so hard to predict. But, my faves right now are Kirstie, Hines, Sugar Ray, and Ralph!
@sasa @will – don’t forget Drew Lachey, Joey McIntyre, Mario Lopez in the ‘ringer’ category. I agree that there is something to the ability to (1) learn the routine, (2) perform naturally, ie connect with the audience (3) commit to the training and then comes the dance ability.
They throw a few ‘better than average’ in there every season, so there is a guarantee you won’t wind up with a bunch that can’t really dance. A wide variety of levels of ‘celebrity’, performance/dance experience makes it interesting (and a lot for all of us to talk about…)
I can’t believe none of you were here for previous ringer discussions.
It aint just about dancing, and if you think it is, you are clearly a Mark fan, seeing as he had at least two ringers. One of those was the biggest in the history of the show – kristi. The word ringer ALSO applies to someone who had a fan base who couldn’t be beat – Kristi and Donny being the largest of that variety. Shawn is also in that group, but to a lower degree than Kristi. When we talk about ringers on this site we are referring to anyone who is SO popular or who has enough previous experience that they are likely to win from day one. Shawn almost broke the ringer theory by losing to a superior dancer – but the ringer theory won out. Popular Olympian from a popular sport watched by large numbers of WOMEN.
You guys are going to force me to write the ringer post, aren’t you?
Melissa, most Derek fans that i know of no longer feel the need to pull crap like that – they are pretty confident in Derek’s talents and ability. They don’t tend toward the insecure from what I can see.
Yeah, I doubt any fan of this show would pull something like that. I didn’t think it was them either.
Ringer is a ringer in many ways as you said. I don’t want Chelsea to win only because again it is kinda obvious. It has also been awhile since a football player won. I don’t think it has to do with their fan base being smaller than anticipated. Warren was dancing against Brooke who was good but also had the following of mothers who related to her as well as Derek’s fans. Jason was up against Kristi. Kurt wasn’t good enough of a dance, sadly. Hines seems the closest to Emmitt. Are Steeler fans as hard core as Cowboy fans?
More I look at the rankings, the more it seems like the top 5 might be predictable. That is probably more as fans getting used to this show after so many seasons. I do hope Kirstie and Ralph surprise.
Hmm, fanbases can be tricky though, really. I mean, Pamela Anderson was consistently in the bottom, and the Hoff was booted off the first week. I just don’t think they are as reliable as ability to give them ringer status. I think a lot of people preferred Donny over Mya because while she was technically perfect her and Dmitry were not fun to watch – while Donny was. I am pretty sure that if Gilles had a better freestyle they would have won. But that freestyle turned off a lot of people, but Shawn’s was soooo much better (and I do think people wanted her to win cause of her age and olympic stuff). I’m not discounting fanbases, not at all – but they aren’t the end all and be all. But I guess neither is ability (ie, Sabrina). Then you had Evan, straight off winning an upset gold, not winning despite his fanbase – because he was up against superior dancing and choreography (and a better freestyle). But I think the case can be made that no matter what – it’s never a boring couple that wins the trophy
Oh, I disagee, fig. I’m not talking any old fan base, I’m talking massive. I don’t get why people don’t understand osmond power – hello, Marie? Their fan base is massive, much more so for donny, than Marie, from what I understand, and it is the dwts demographic. These people have been playing Vegas for how long? Not just anyone can do that. The only people who fall into this category are kristi, Donny, and Shawn, and maybe Evan. Probably evan. But Evan was up against a better dancer and a pro who not only has a fan base, but one that knows how to vote. Hasselhoff never fell into this category and neither did Pam, although I expected hoff to go farther. Too much bad press and a German fan base worked against him.
In any case, its about people who you look at and become convinced they will take the season even before it starts. Really Evan didn’t win because the scores weren’t even close – if the judges had done their cop out thing Evan probably would have won. Instead they actually scored it.
I think it all depends who you’re up against. Would Donny have won against Gilles? I seriously doubt it. The voting demographics would intercross with each other and I think the better dancer (Gilles) would have won, despite Donny’s core fan base. Gilles lost to a complete opposite of himself (young, female, shy, athlete) so Shawn’s core fan base was undisturbed.
I still think Sabrina was more the case of people believing she’s safe then disliking her, but that’s about the only time I actually believe that to be the cause, even though you hear it every season one or two times.
I was surprised by Pam and Hoff to an extend. He did truly suck so I think that did him in. In the beginning of the competition there are no redemptions and it is most important to not suck at dancing. Unless you’re Kate Gosselin; dear God, I still pity Tony for that one.
I don’t know what the deal was with Pam. She didn’t suck, was charming and occasionally very funny. That one does make me wonder about the strength of name recognition alone.
And as far as boring couples not winning goes I somewhat disagree. I personally found Brooke&Derek to be as exciting as a brick wall. Especially compared to Warren&Kym. I would have so given it to him if I could.
And if you count consistency as being boring them there are many more- Nicole&Derek, Donny&Kym, Kristi&Mark, Emmitt&Cheryl, Shawn&Mark.. I guess people admire consistency.
Pam’s problem was her sexy act – I’m pretty convinced of that. It was/is so over the top that it turns a lot of women off. She never came across as a real person and that is what did her in. No one felt anything for her. If she had just dropped that schtick of hers she might have gone much further. People felt something for Donny and for Marie, and for Shawn and for others with NO fanbases like Kyle and Ty. People didn’t feel anything for Mya, and to a lesser degree, Evan and Natalie Coughlin. Look at Wayne Newton, who is in the same demo wheelhouse as the Osmonds. I mean, Kurt Warner figured right into the DWTS demo and he was charming and all that – with a MASSIVE fanbase. It’s a tricky thing to gauge when your fanbase is going to pull for you or if they are split (like they probably were with Kurt and Bristol). Most people that I know that watch DWTS aren’t like the people that go onto fanboards or twitter – they simply vote week to week (and A LOT) who they like the best or feel they deserve another week. Not saying that fanbases don’t help – of course they do – but I don’t think anyone is a ringer just because of how popular they are – at least not the level of DWTS celebs. If they got some A listers or something like that, I think it might make more of a difference. But I bet if Mya had showed any semblance of a personality it might have gone the other way.
You make good points Fig.
If it was Pam’s sexy act to blame I find that to be sexist from the public. I don’t exactly know why I feel like that but I do. Gilles did the sexy act also, but because he’s a guy and French everybody loved it. Mario Lopez? His whole life is a sexy act (a bad one in my opinion). But from a woman it is more expected that she be relatable and vulnerable. I dunno, I loved watching Pam.
I have a very strong feeling that Hines will win this season. He will be another “dancing teddy bear” a la Emmitt. The jury is still out for the rest of the field. i just hope that Romeo does well for Chelsie’s sake. I like her a whole lot more because she manages to still say kind words about Michael to his day. He is the nightmare partner for any pro. I think that Michael & his questionable touring schedule during his season had something to do with Edyta’s falling out with the producers of DWTS (just a theory). Chelsea and Mark could be top three material.
Ok, after a lot of thinking on this in the last few days, here is who I want to see win in this order:
Kirstie
Petra
Hines
Sugar Ray
Ralph
Chris
Kendra
Chelsea
Mike
Romeo
Wendy
Here is who I think will win in this order;
Hines
Chelsea
Kendra
Kirstie
Ralph
Sugar Ray
Petra
Chris
Mike
Romeo
Wendy
It will be fun to look back at this at the end of the Season.
No, Fig, I think you’re still looking at it wrong. If you can point to someone at the beginning of the season and say “They’re going to win” because their fanbase is huge, then that’s really all there is to it. You couldn’t do that for Kurt Warner – for ANY football player – because you can’t guarantee people will vote for them. Only one has won, correct?? They may have big fanbases, but not big VOTING fanbases. So, there is an assumption of a huge fanbase. With people like Kristi, Shawn and Donny, it’s a reality. Kristi and Shawn are obvious, and with Donny – well anyone who can fill a Vegas show night after night has got fans – and he’s been around for 40 years. Many, MANY people said right away that those three would win based on sheer popularity, including me. Evan is the only one who didn’t win who I thought would based on fanbase – and it may be due to 2.03 percent between him and Nicole being too much to overcome. There is something to be said for a better dancer paired with Derek making a likable couple. I also wonder if I over estimated Evan’s popularity – I heard from a lot of people who just didn’t like him for whatever reason.
And I think Donny would have beaten Gilles too – I think Donny’s fanbase is bigger than Shawn’s.
Of course, I don’t think we’ve ever had a ringer based on fanbase who couldn’t also dance quite well. It would be interesting to see if they got one to see what would happen.
We’ll be sure to remind you (and Courtney) Vogue.
Susan – just curious: why would Michael’s touring schedule affect Edyta? He was Chelsie’s partner so I would think it would have more on an impact on Chelsie than on Edyta. Chelsie would have had reason to fall out with TPTB because they assigned her a partner who was not able to fulfill his end of the deal.
(apologies if I’ve missed a post that addressed this … )
LOL Heidi, Ok, sounds good.
Wouldn’t Marie Osmond fall into the category of huge fanbase in the right voting demographic, but couldn’t dance very well? I mean, I guess she was OK, but there were at least 2 people that season who I thought were much MUCH better (Jennie Garth & Sabrina Bryan); and we’ll never know about Josie Moran because she was gone first. Marie danced with one of my favorite male Pros and that horrible baby-doll free style – that’s about all I remember of her. I wasn’t much impressed, I remember that.
I think Chris could surprise people. WWE requires performance and athleticism. He should be able to move AND sell it. Hines seems like a good mover, but a bit shy. He might sink into the background. I expect him to do well, but he may struggle to breakout.
Chelsea already annoys me and Mark has annoyed me for a few seasons now. They could win, but I hope they don’t. I really like Romeo and I’m a bit surprised others are turned off by him. I think it’s impressive that a guy who is already successful is going for a college education and is encouraging others to do the same. He and Chelsie might be my second favorite pair at this point.
I love Kirstie and Maks. I usually vote for Maks anyway, and this seems like this could be a fun season for him.
As for Kendra, Playboy may not be a death sentence, but it doesn’t help. Pam and Joanna were both voted out when others had lower scores. Holly, I think survived mainly on pity. Brooke, was not known primarily for playboy and was clearly the best dancer. If Kendra struggles even one week, she could be sunk.
Yeah, Linde, I guess it would. Talent wins out when the dancer isn’t good but has a huge fanbase. I had LOTS of people telling me that Marie was the least popular Osmond because of how she treated (treats?) Donny, but it’s still a sizeable fanbase. And, many people did think she was going to win because of that fanbase. Then she started dancing. Having recently re-watched Season 5, I can say that she wasn’t as horrible as I remember – and she was certainly better than Bristol – but she went up against much better dancers and lost. I also don’t think it helped that she was extraordinarily annoying AND that Doll dance was horrific.
I would like to see what would happen if a sure thing came on and was a Donny-type dancer, and then did the doll dance equivalent. THAT would be interesting. So, would the horrible free style or the huge fanbase win?? Maybe next season.
Marie wasn’t a bad dancer though. Her dancing was passable and better than Ty. Watch her quickstep and compare it to Bristol. Ty, Billy Ray and Bristol are the worst dancers who made it pretty far in the competition.
Evan wasn’t as popular as Shawn or Kristi. Evan made some comments about Johnny Weir that turned his fans and some fans off. Nicole just danced so well with memorable dances. Watch Kristi, Shawn and Apolo’s faces after her argentine tango in the finals. Nicole with Derek were as Carrie Ann said artistry in motion. Nicole, Drew, Apolo, Jennifer, Kyle are just some celebs who I just looked forward to seeing what they would do each week because they impressed.
The dynmaicc between Marie and Donny is hysterical. They love to crack okes and push each others buttons. She is the loudest of the two for sure while he defiantely is the funniest though. That’s the perfect combo I think for singing duos since they have been around in the music industry and entertainment in general since forever lol. I have a theory why Evan lost: Besides the comments about Johnny W, he also had (and I say this nicely) a lack of personality other than the robot voice he used during one of the weeks.
@Melisa: i like ur list of the least talented to make it far on the show. I would add jane seymour since she just stuck around because of her charm, Heather Mills, Michael Irvin, and as much as I hate saying it Kelly Osbourne (she got through based on her unforseen likeability factor and transfromation…..not to mention it was always fun to see Ozy and Sharon in the audence lol………I would love it if HE ever did the show. Dude’s a hoot and would be fun to see interact w len and bruno during the judging lol).
Ozzy on DWTS …. ROTFLLLL that would be a riot, vin. I would fly to LA see that show (if I could even get in, that is. Looks like a sold out crowd every time)
I’m with ya, Vin. The memory is coming back to me now on Evan and I remember the Johnny Weir stuff.
I never said that popularity isn’t a factor, just not the only one. I actually don’t even like the term “ringer” for really good dancers because we’ve seen how it doesn’t always translate into a win or likability. My point is that no matter how popular or how good of a dancer, there’s an “it” factor that ultimately determines who stays and who goes home before their time. Shawn was popular, but like I said – I think what made her more in the ringer camp wasn’t that alone, but factor in her age. Even Gilles said he didn’t want to be the one that beat a 17 year old contestant
The true test is to find a person with a huge fanbase and is both a bad dancer and relatively unlikable on the show. Hard to find those things though lol
I’m glad for that actually – I love that I’ve come to appreciate so many different celebs that I would normally not have cared about at all (Kyle, Kelly O, for example). Unfortunately it’s also made me care a little less for some celebs that I was really rooting for too (Jennifer Grey) and reaffirmed that ones I hate deserve it sooooo much (Michael Bolton and Jake Pavelka). So excited for Monday!
Hi Linde:
Edytha pulled out of last season the last minute. It is just my theory that she did not want to be used by Michael to promote his tour and by ABC create drama on DWTS.
I suppose I use the ringer term quite differently. Hmm, anyways. I really want Chelsea and Mark to win right now. Mark annoyed me a bit with Bristol, but Chelsea’s very likable I think and it looks like from her rehearsals she can actually dance. It depends on how well Hines dances if I want him to win or not, he looks good, but we’ll have to see how he does in the longrun. Tomorrow night should give us some helpful hints to who has potential to improve, who will be good, and who will not be good any time soon.
My favorites are Romeo and Chelsie and Hines and Kym – I would be happy with either one of them winning though Hines and Kym may have the better chance. I like Chelsea, but not a fan of Mark. Chris could surprise and he has Cheryl for a partner. I’m looking forward to Kirstie and Maks’ rehearsal packages.
Late to the party, I know, but I’ve loved reading all the good, thought-provoking discussion. Right now I’m agreeing with Courtney on the 1/2 placement of Chelsea/Mark and Hines/Kym. Hines has surprised us with how well he can dance (at least in rehearsal), but I still have a question or two about him: (1) can he bring out his personality so he’s “relate-able” and (2) can he bring out the personality of the dance (I’m thinking rumba, paso, and the tangos). If Hines can do those things and dance, he could become my choice for the top spot. Kendra should make the finals unless Louis sabbotages her with too much pressure and maudlin story lines for their dances. Romeo is still a big question mark for me, although I’d love to see him do well. At this point, I’d put Chris ahead of him of his personality and because he’s dancing with Cheryl who has a strong fan base and knows how to get the job done. Kirstie and Maks are kind of the wild cards in this group. They could scramble the predictions. This is really shaping up to be a fun season. So glad we’ve finally made it to Premiere Night!