DWTS 12 Stat Class: Who has the Edge?
So… before the start of last season I attempted to place the “stars” via a long series of calculations in hopes to predict who would leave when during the course of the season.
Needless to say, although I was off in some cases I was also spot on in other cases.
In case you have forgotten what factors I’ve used to calculate the placement of the stars here’s a bit of a refresher: DWTS Season 11 Stat Class
Now it would be interesting to note how the last season affecting the standings of each pro… so below is what the pro ranks are AFTER Season 11 followed by what they were PRIOR to Season 11:
1. 1.) Derek Hough – 7 Seasons
2. 2.) Julianne Hough – 5 Seasons
3. 4.) Lacey Schwimmer – 4 Seasons
4. 3.) Cheryl Burke – 10 Seasons
5. 7.) Dmitry Chaplin – 2 Seasons
6. 10.) Mark Ballas – 7 Seasons
7. 13.) Maksim Chmerkovskiy – 9 Seasons
8. 5.) Kym Johnson – 8 Seasons
9. 11.) Tony Dovolani – 10 Seasons
10. 14.) Anna Trebunskaya – 6 Seasons
11. 8.) Karina Smirnoff – 8 Seasons
12. 9.) Louis van Amstel – 7 Seasons
13. 6.) Chelsie Hightower – 4 Seasons
14. 12.) Corky Ballas – 2 Season
15. 15.) Edyta Sliwinska – 10 Seasons
16. 16.) Alec Mazo – 5 Seasons
17. 17.) Ashly Costa (nee DelGrosso) – 4 Seasons
18. 18.) Jonathan Roberts – 7 Seasons
As one could see, even if a pro does not participate in a season their overall rank is still affected based on those that are participating.
And for sake of completeness here is how the various age groups rank after Season 11:
1. Teens (below 20 years)
2. 20s (20 thru 29)
3. 30s (30 thru 39)
4. 60s (60 thru 69)
5. 40s (40 thru 49)
6. 70s (70 thru 79)
7. 50s (60 thru 69)
8. 80s (above 79 years)
Now it is important to note that the ages represent the age that a celeb is at while they are participating in the show. So if someone is 29 when they were on the show and is in their early-30s now the age group they are representing is that of their 20s.
And finally we have occupations. I tried to use the primary occupation that a celeb is most known for since we do have a lot of crossover celebrities. This category probably contains the most variables when attempting to calculate ranks:
1. NFL athlete
2. Olympian (one that has been to the Olympics AND medaled)
3. Band Member (ie 98 Degrees, Spice Girls, NKOTB, etc)
4. Disney (anyone that got their start w/ Disney, Billy Ray Cyrus is NOT part of this group)
5. Entertainer (ie Wayne Newton, Marie and Donny Osmond)
6. Soap Opera Star
7. Singer (Master P, Billy Ray Cyrus, Toni Braxton, Lil Kim, Aaron Carter, Michael Bolton)
8. Actor
9. Athlete (ie Helio, Monica Seles, Ty Murray, Chuck Liddell, Louie)
10. Host (ie Kenny Mayne, Jerry Springer, Lezza Gibbons, Brooke Burke, Erin Andrews)
11. Actress
12. NBA athlete
13. Boxer (ie Evander Holyfield, Laila Ali, Floyd Mayweather)
14. Reality TV Star
15. Other (anyone that does not fit in any other category)
16. Model
17. Comedian
Now that we know which celebs are part of Season 12, it is time to calculate and attempt to predict how they would place in the upcoming season.
For issues of time and ease of understanding I am only going notate which group each celeb fits per category and their rank, as well as their overall rank.
SUGAR RAY LEONARD
Age: 50s (Rank: 11)
Occupation: Boxer (Rank: 9)
Pro Partner: Anna Trebunskaya (Rank: 8 )
OVERALL RANK: 11
I really don’t know what to say about this. I mean Anna has done well recently, but for every high placement she has a low placement. Other than Laila Ali, Boxers typically do not rank high in their season despite the natural fast feet. But the first to go? I could see others more likely to fit that bill…
WENDY WILLIAMS
Age: 40s (Rank: 8 )
Occupation: Host (Rank: 6)
Pro Partner: Tony Dovolani (Rank: 7)
OVERALL RANK: 10
Female hosts tend to do better than male hosts in the overall standings, but that is also dependent on what they have come in with and if memory serves most of those female hosts has had some prior dance experience, be it ballet, contemporary, etc. Does Wendy have any of that? Not to my knowledge but things could change. Still, personally, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see her as one of the first to go.
RALPH MACCHIO
Age: 40s (Rank: 8 )
Occupation: Actor (Rank: 4)
Pro Partner: Karina Smirnoff (Rank: 9)
OVERALL RANK: 9
Actors tend to do better than actresses, granted that’s mainly in part of the viewing demographic. However with other better eye candy on the horizon, does he really stand a chance?
KENDRA WILKINSON
Age: 20s (Rank: 1)
Occupation: Reality TV Star (Rank: 10)
Pro Partner: Louis van Amstel (Rank: 10)
OVERALL RANK: 8
Another bunny decides that she wanted to come out and play. Thank goodness her first dance isn’t the quickstep, else I may have to walk away do to some distraction or another. I mean, having a bounce is one thing, but bouncing all over the place is quite another. Still the ChaCHa isn’t exactly an improvement in the bounce department, unless Louis knows how to keep the puppies tame. Being young has its advantages, but that only goes so far.
KRISTIE ALLEY
Age: 60s (Rank: 7)
Occupation: Actress (Rank: 8 )
Pro Partner: Maksim Chmerkovskiy (Rank: 5)
OVERALL RANK: 7
Maksim has had his taste in the top three for a few seasons now, but Kristie is coming up in her age. To me she’s the most “known” but that is only because I loved the “Look Whose Talking” movie series with John Travolta. It will be interesting to see what she comes up with.
PETRA NEMCOVA
Age: 30s (Rank: 4)
Occupation: Model (Rank: 11)
Pro Partner: Dmitry Chaplin (Rank: 3)
OVERALL RANK: 6
Ah yes, the prettiest couple. I am a Dmitry ‘groupie’, so any chance that he could stay on the show longer is a happy day for me. But models tend to do poorly when it comes to placement beating out comedians! Ah well, I’m crossing my fingers.
ROMEO
Age: 20s (Rank: 1)
Occupation: Singer (Rank: 3)
Pro Partner: Chelsie Hightower (Rank: 11)
OVERALL RANK: 5
YES!!! You have no idea how excited I was to hear that they asked him to come on this season. He has GOT to be an improvement over his dad. His pro partner is arguably an improvement (for those that have forgotten, when he was originally asked to join, his partner was slated Ashly DelGrosso now Costa but he was replaced by his dad due to injury). So I am very interested to see how this would pan out.
CHRIS JERICHO
Age: 40s (Rank: 8 )
Occupation: Athlete (Rank: 5)
Pro Partner: Cheryl Burke (Rank: 2)
OVERALL RANK: 4
As yes, Cheryl gets another athlete, there isn’t much to be said, because she knows how to get an athlete to work. So what’s the point?
MIKE CATHERWOOD
Age: 30s (Rank: 4)
Occupation: Host (Rank: 6)
Pro Partner: Lacey Schwimmer (Rank: 1)
OVERALL RANK: 3
I don’t know him. Do you? I can’t comment on someone that I have no idea about, I’m sorry.
HINES WARD
Age: 30s (Rank: 4)
Occupation: NFL athlete (Rank: 1)
Pro Partner: Kym Johnson (Rank: 6)
OVERALL RANK: 2
NFL players have a tendency to finish in the top half of the season celebs, with a good number of them finishing near the top three. Hines has his work cut out with him if he is expected to keep the NFL legacy alive. At least he isn’t a quarterback. *evil cackle*
CHELSEA KANE
Age: 20s (Rank: 1)
Occupation: Disney (Rank: 2)
Pro Partner: Mark Ballas (Rank: 4)
OVERALL RANK: 1
Don’t ask me how this happened. But it has happened again. In last year’s pre-season ranking I had Bristol Palin and Kyle Massey in the top three and look what happened! I am just saying that at this point, anything can happen.
And there you have it, the final odds as calculated by my normalized calculations derived from the last eleven seasons. Normally I wouldn’t agree with a good number of these ranks, but as it stands, numbers don’t lie and last year just reminded me of that. So let’s just sit back, relax, and see what’s going to happen this season.
Enjoy!
SO FASCINATING!!! I LOVE THIS! Thanks for the stats Marianya!!!!!xx
I’m all about numbers, as you know. But I have to ask – how often do they actually predict the WINNER?? In the last 3 or 4 seasons alone we’ve had two 50 year olds, one was an entertainer and one was an actress – and Nicole was a singer also.
I think they are good at getting a good picture of figuring out the top 5, but maybe not the winner?
Stats are fun at all… I use them more to see how the current season’s demographic affects them for the following season and to see if they stay roughly the same “in general”
Like when Margaret Cho was on last season I kind of had it in my head that she wasn’t going to fair well and going so far as to say that she might be gone in the first few weeks… however, on the other side of the spectrum seeing Kyle and Bristol in the top three per stats made me very suspicious, but what the hey.. stats don’t like… apparently >.<
stats don’t lie… rather than like… oops
Marianya!!! Its so good to hear from you again!! Thought you had left us for awhile there. How are your parents? ( Isn’t that right because you had to leave the country or something last November on there behalf? ) Anyway good to have ya back. 🙂
I do think it’s going to come down to Chelsea and HInes in the end, but I can’t decide who the third team is going to be in the finals …. that’s the slot that’s really wide open at this point (ha ha .. all this based on a few seconds of rehearsal footage).
Petra and Wendy look to be on the bubble to leave us first, but hopefully they will surprise us. Always love those surprises, and feel the pain of those disappointments. Go Ralph Go!
Glad there not eliminating anyone this first week.
Amazing work Marianya!! We should charge the bookies in Vegas for this type of information. I bet they’d be interested in knowing it. I wouldn’t be surprised if they read this site for the info as well. They will if they see this post.
I’m amazed that Chelsea is so high. Although, that Disney channel is a powerhouse.
I loved this! ROTFL>>>
Marianya: “I don’t know him. Do you? I can’t comment on someone that I have no idea about, I’m sorry.”
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Hey guys, did u see GMA this morning? They basically showed reherrsal video and showed that Kirstie is dancing to “Forget You” by Cee Lo Green and Mark and Chelsea got “King of Anything”. Also, Derek is on GMA tomorrrow as well according to some things I read online. Looks Like GMA has become DWTS central lol.
Very interesting! I’m a numbers person myself and really appreciate you doing this. Some of them seem really off the mark, but I agree there is a certain truth in numbers so time will tell.
vin, where did you read that Derek would be on GMA?? I’m kinda up on all things Derek after all 🙂 and I haven’t heard a word about it. Of course, as fantastic a dancer and choreographer Derek is, he’s just that shitty at keeping his fans informed on his appearances. If he’s going to be in NYC shooting his movie, then it would be interesting to see him as one of their DWTS correspondents.
Be good to review this analysis at season’s end-I hope you do. Yes, the producers should send an honorarium your way.
@Bruce – Oddly enough I had planned on doing that for last season when I first attempted to do this… but real life got in the way. Perhaps at the end of the current season I will attempt to do that and see how things go from there.
I was using the guide feature on io tv and hit info t read about GMA tommorow nd it said it. It literally says : “derek hough rates perfrormers on daning with the stars”. Glad I could help u guys 🙂
Wow that was a load of data and numbers crunching. My brain is still whirling trying to make sense of it all – it’s obvious I’m not a statistician (LOL) You definitely have to revisit this at the end of the season to see how well the numbers predicted the actual outcome. I honestly can’t see Mike in the #3 spot, but then I would never have put Bristol in that spot at the beginning of last season either.
I agree with Linde – So glad they’re not eliminating anyone the first week.
You helped me, vin, but you may be the direct result of harm to Derek’s publicist. 😉
LOL I have a bad feeling that he is going to be nice about everyone’s dancing if they r horrible or not lol. He seems like such a nice guy that is nice to everyone. If it were Maks, the commentary would be way different lol.
Derek is quite PC, that is for sure. I’ll be interested to see what route he takes. 🙂
Ok. why did the guide say Derek when it was actually Kyle who was analyzing the dances? I was disapointed it wasn’t Derek.
Between Derek having been sick and all the prep work he’s doing for the movie, I figure there was a reason in there that they had to make a switch. His PR person says his schedule is very “complicated” – so there could have been some sort of mixup.
But yeah, he’s definitely way more qualified to rank the contestants than a guy who danced for one season. I would have like to hear his take on the subject.
If I worked for GMA, I would have Jonathan Roberts or Maks’ brother Val do the commentary.
vin – great idea about Jonathan Roberts. From your lips to the ears of TPTB @ GMA 🙂
I would love if Jonathan was invited to do anything DWTS related. He has good screen presence and can be appropriately nice yet offer informed critiques about DWTS. But I’m not counting on TPTB listening to me anything Jonathan related. 🙁