DWTS Season 12, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers
A new season, a whole new set of calculating and prognosticating. To anyone new to this site, this is one of the series that we’ve been carrying on for a few seasons now; if you want to read what the calculations were for previous seasons, you should be able to find them by searching “dancing by the numbers”. You can find last season’s starting here —> Dancing by the Numbers Season 11.
Anyway, what I do in this series is calculate the standings according to the rules of DWTS. The way DWTS works is, each dancer is given a score. That score is then divided by the total number of points awarded on that night; that is, all the couple’s scores added together. That yields a percentage for each couple which counts for HALF of their combined score, the audience vote being the other half. The audience vote is handled the same way; the total number of votes cast is divided into the number of votes for a given couple, yielding their percentage of the audience votes. The judges percentage is added to the audience percentage for a combined total score. The couple with the lowest combined score goes home.
Now, we’re talking about first week scores with no elimination in the first week. The couples get a chance to dance again before anyone is eliminated. As a result, this is just a “where we stand before Dance number 2″ post – absolutely everything could change after the second dance. Consider this a practice post. 
So, what are our Judges percentages??
Dancers Percentage of the Judges scores
Ralph = 11.54%
Kirstie = 11.06%
Hines = 10.10%
Chelsea = 10.10%
Chris = 9.13%
Romeo = 9.13%
Petra = 8.65%
Sugar Ray = 8.65%
Kendra = 8.65%
Wendy = 6.73%
Mike = 6.25%
Obviously, Mike and Wendy are in the most danger going into week 2. I think Wendy is likely safe based solely on being more well known than Mike is – which is a shame because I found Mike to be relatively funny and definitely cute. Wendy? I dunno, I felt bad for Tony (whether he deserves it or not ) because she seems kinda like a mess already.
Barring disaster, Ralph, Kirstie, Hines and Chelsea are likely to be very, very safe. I’m going to guess that their week 2 dances won’t change that. What can change is the middle of the pack and the bottom of the pack; everyone is switching from latin to ballroom or vice versa and the change in style could have a severe impact on the weaker dancers. Of course, if any of the 4 I mentioned crash badly, they’ll be in trouble too – but they benefit from going into week 2 with fairly high scores.
For example, Mike as the low scorer is 3.85% away from Hines and Chelsea, who are tied for 3rd place. This equates to 38.5k votes. As a relative unknown, Mike is unlikely to catch either Hines or Chelsea. Same goes for Ralph and Kirstie.
As for Wendy, the difference between her and Mike is only 0.48%, which equates to 4,810 votes. This is practically equivalent to zero if we were talking about two celebrities who were on equal footing…but we’re not. We’ll have to wait and see how both Mike and Wendy do on dance number 2, but it’s hard for me to believe that Mike, a relative unknown, can make up that differential. Now, if he kicks butt on his next dance and Wendy doesn’t?? All bets are off.
On to Monday! I usually post my stats on Tuesday morning – check back here to see how we do.
I’m so glad I discovered you few...
Oh, HOW I LOVE THESE POSTS!! I will definitely be checking back Tuesday morning.
Thanks, Vogue.
Next up? A ringer post, just for Joanie. I think Maks has had as many ringers as Derek, he just can’t manage to WIN with them. 
Completely agree, Heidi.
And the freestyle is the key. Maksim never did a freestyle that makes me say “wow, this was exciting”…
I think he lost Season 5 because of it. (and gained my angry about the way he talked to Helio on an enterview… but this is my business… LOL season 4 I rooted for Maks and Laila since that apolo samba…)
YES! GO FOR IT HEIDI!!
As much as Iike Maks he’s actually had what could be considered quite a few “so called” ringers, more than most actually. To name a few, Mel B., Laila Ali, Brandy and quite a few other decent performers. I also think that one would consider having someone like Kirstie Alley as an advantage, even with her age and all. Her fame & notoriety basically guarantees them to be in the competition for a long time, plus she has great dance ability. She is known to love to party, and get her dance on!-LOL I don’t care though, I wish her the best and hope she has a nice run on the show. Just saying!!
Thank You Princess Heidi, I love Dancing by The Numbers.
I already have my favorite picked for this season, but I wish them all well. Let the competition begin. Is it Monday night yet….
Interesting this year. Can someone like Cheryl take a less likely partner and keep them along for a longer-than-expected time; similarly, a good test for Anna. It isn’t like some of the folks behind Hines, Ralph and Kirstie were flat out terrible; they could improve???
@Bruce – I think Cheryl could end up taking Chris far further than anyone is expecting – but I don’t think it will necessarily be because he’s going to grow into a great dancer. I always think of Maurice & Chad – 2 pretty mediocre dancers who made it pretty far with Cheryl without really improving throughout the season. I don’t know if it’s her popularity that’s carrying her & her partners through week after week, or if she’s somehow appeasing the judges (Chris’ cha-cha was overscored by at least 2 points, IMO) – but it works for her. As for Anna – I’m a little worried. Ray seems to have a harder time picking up choreography than some of her past partners, & doesn’t seem to have as big a personality as some of the other celebs this season. I think they run the risk of getting lost in the shuffle.
I definitely agree with Heidi that, barring some miraculous improvement by Mike this week, he is probably at the greatest risk of getting eliminated. Although I have to say, I’d rather have it be Wendy – it was actually kind of painful to watch her last week, both with the bad dancing & the dramatic package. But she does seem to have a lot of people pulling for her, unlike Mike, so she may be around for another week.
Yes, Cheryl sees the big picture. She understands what the show wants from the pros, in the same way Derek does.
@Bruce
You are so right. I’m not the biggest fan of Derek but both he and Cheryl have the ability to, as you so nicely said, see the big picture. I would go as far as to say they are part managers part dancers.
And while I respect this trait and the diversity of character that is required for it, I still have an issue to raise. I have a feeling that in dancing the more you become a manager the more you lose on artistry of the profession.
The example for this would be Cheryl’s choreography in recent seasons which IMO has become less artistic and more predictable. It’s easier for Derek to maintain the level because his choreography has always relied so much on perfecting the technical side (fast, complicated moves). Cheryl on the other hand became respected, rightfully so, because she knew how to play up the emotional side of dance. Seduction, rejection, playfulness… the whole package. And I think this ability suffered as she learned more about what is required, smart and rational within the show. I still really respect her, I just found her so much more engaging when she knew less and felt more.
Or maybe she’s just getting tired of it and my whole essay was for nothing. :shrug
Heidi, I remember you talking about an article about pros ‘paying dues’ with ‘bad partners’. I remember a lot of people complaining about Derek (mostly Mark fans, if I’m not mistaken) I’d LOVE to read that one! But the Maks’ ringers one is good too. BUT I’D LOVE to read the one you mentioned before (about Mark) PLEASE!!! LOL. Thanks for doing these Heidi! I’ve missed the ‘Dancing by the Numbers’ posts as well as Courtney’s posts. Thanks again!
I’m actually working on it Nathan – I started yesterday and I’m up through Season 6. It’s really amazing how many good partners the pros who have a lot of whiners as fans have had. I mean, by the time Season 6 rolls around Maks has already had Willa Ford and Mel B, and Mark has had Sabrina and Kristi. Derek has had Jennie and Shannon. Me thinks revisionist history is worse than I thought.
I would agree, Sasa – Derek has always known (cept for that season with Shannon) that this show is a game, first and foremost. And he’s always been really good at playing the game. I think the same goes for Cheryl.
As for getting tired – well, it’s possible. I’m sorta glad Derek is taking a season off and learning tap and hip hop and god knows what else. He could be a real force to be reckoned with when he comes back. IF he comes back. I kinda think that this season is doing wonders for Maks – he’s practically giddy, thanks to Kirstie. I even voted for them last week.
I also voted for Ralph and Hines. I’m sharing the love for a bit.
Maks can be very likable when paired with someone who does him good as Kirstie does. It also helps that she’s so much older because I think he gets too carried away with showing off when his partners are pretty young things. I don’t vote but if I did I still wouldn’t have voted for them last week. With Maks it’s just a matter of time before his inner bitch comes out. I know that’s harsh but after a season of an elaborate showmance (Erin) and then a season of bitchin and complaining (Brandy) it takes more then getting along with kooky Kirstie to make up for it.
I would start voting for them if I saw a point in the competition when her improvement overshadows everything else. But she still has to get to that point, week 1 doesn’t cut it.
Especially when there are Hines&Kym and Ralph (&Karina) around.
Thanks for the analysis Princess Heidi. Dancing by the Numbers is fun! I don’t want any “surprise eliminations” on Tuesday because I like the top of the leaderboard. So I hope they knock it out of the park again. As for poor Mikey, even if he does something (unexpectedly) amazing in the Jive, can he really overcome Wendy’s fanbase? Nothing against Wendy, but if Mike impresses and Wendy tanks (again), I’d kind of like to see Mike stick around (even if it means putting up with Lacey’s hair).
Can’t wait to see how everyone does with the 2nd dance! I love it when they don’t do an elimination until everyone has done ballroom and Latin.
[...] – the top three and the bottom two remain the same, but a bit of juggling in the middle. Last week, Chelsea was solidly in 4th place, but she has fallen to 6th place due to out of the box [...]