A new season, a whole new set of calculating and prognosticating. To anyone new to this site, this is one of the series that we’ve been carrying on for a few seasons now; if you want to read what the calculations were for previous seasons, you should be able to find them by searching “dancing by the numbers”. You can find last season’s starting here —> Dancing by the Numbers Season 11.
Anyway, what I do in this series is calculate the standings according to the rules of DWTS. The way DWTS works is, each dancer is given a score. That score is then divided by the total number of points awarded on that night; that is, all the couple’s scores added together. That yields a percentage for each couple which counts for HALF of their combined score, the audience vote being the other half. The audience vote is handled the same way; the total number of votes cast is divided into the number of votes for a given couple, yielding their percentage of the audience votes. The judges percentage is added to the audience percentage for a combined total score. The couple with the lowest combined score goes home.
Now, we’re talking about first week scores with no elimination in the first week. The couples get a chance to dance again before anyone is eliminated. As a result, this is just a “where we stand before Dance number 2” post – absolutely everything could change after the second dance. Consider this a practice post.
So, what are our Judges percentages??
Dancers Percentage of the Judges scores
Ralph = 11.54%
Kirstie = 11.06%
Hines = 10.10%
Chelsea = 10.10%
Chris = 9.13%
Romeo = 9.13%
Petra = 8.65%
Sugar Ray = 8.65%
Kendra = 8.65%
Wendy = 6.73%
Mike = 6.25%
Obviously, Mike and Wendy are in the most danger going into week 2. I think Wendy is likely safe based solely on being more well known than Mike is – which is a shame because I found Mike to be relatively funny and definitely cute. Wendy? I dunno, I felt bad for Tony (whether he deserves it or not ) because she seems kinda like a mess already.
Barring disaster, Ralph, Kirstie, Hines and Chelsea are likely to be very, very safe. I’m going to guess that their week 2 dances won’t change that. What can change is the middle of the pack and the bottom of the pack; everyone is switching from latin to ballroom or vice versa and the change in style could have a severe impact on the weaker dancers. Of course, if any of the 4 I mentioned crash badly, they’ll be in trouble too – but they benefit from going into week 2 with fairly high scores.
For example, Mike as the low scorer is 3.85% away from Hines and Chelsea, who are tied for 3rd place. This equates to 38.5k votes. As a relative unknown, Mike is unlikely to catch either Hines or Chelsea. Same goes for Ralph and Kirstie.
As for Wendy, the difference between her and Mike is only 0.48%, which equates to 4,810 votes. This is practically equivalent to zero if we were talking about two celebrities who were on equal footing…but we’re not. We’ll have to wait and see how both Mike and Wendy do on dance number 2, but it’s hard for me to believe that Mike, a relative unknown, can make up that differential. Now, if he kicks butt on his next dance and Wendy doesn’t?? All bets are off.
On to Monday! I usually post my stats on Tuesday morning – check back here to see how we do.