DWTS Stats Class: Week 2
So… for anyone that remembers, in previous seasons I attempted to predict scores for the Monday night performance show. Sometimes far off the mark and other times pretty darn close.
This season I’m going to try something vastly different.
Similar to how I placed the stars in the pre-season by breaking down the averages of the seasons to professional, occupation and age, I am going to try to use a similar method when trying to predict scores from week to week.
See here you have it, a (hopefully) much more simplistic way to understand my scoring prediction calculations… good luck!
Ralph and Karina – Jive
- Age [40s]: 18.5
- Occupation [Actor]: 23
- Pro Partner: 21
Predicted Score: 20
Thoughts: I don’t really agree with the score, knowing that he was able to pull of in the Foxtrot. But the Jive is a faster dance, and requires a lot of energy. So this tends to be cumbersome for older stars… let’s see how he pulls this off.
Kendra and Louis – Jive
- Age [20s]: 23.444
- Occupation [Reality TV]: 17.5
- Pro Partner: 19.5
Predicted Score: 20
Thoughts: I found it kind of odd that Louis hasn’t fared well with the Jive and his partners, then again, Reality TV stars don’t really fare well over all in dancing, however, she has youth behind her, that could help.
Chelsea and Mark – Jive
- Age [20s]: 23.444
- Occupation [Disney]: 25
- Pro Partner: 21
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Easily one of the younger partnerships, the Jive caters to youth quite well, the question is how much would this pairing take that knowledge to their advantage? It’s Mark… if he goes campy, I quit… wait… it’s Mark… dammit.
Mike and Lacey – Jive
- Age [30s]: 22.043
- Occupation [Host]: 22
- Pro Partner: 28
Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: Oddly enough, Lacey has never worked on the Jive with any of her partners prior to Week 6. So this could be interesting.
Sugar Ray & Anna – Jive
- Age [50s]: 20.333
- Occupation [Boxer]: 17
- Pro Partner: 21.333
Predicted Score: 19
Thoughts: Despite their quickness of feet in the ring, for some reason it could never transfer over to the dance floor. Could Sugar Ray buck the trend?
Petra and Dmitry – Jive
- Age [30s]: 22.043
- Occupation [Model]: 20.5
- Pro Partner: 27
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Models always did seem out of sorts in the Jive, mainly because she is so tall and with long limbs. The only “tall” celebrity that I could think of that actually looked comfortable in the Jive? Evan Lysacek, but he was an athlete, Petra is not.
Wendy and Tony – Quickstep
- Age [40s]: 20.417
- Occupation [Host]: 22
- Pro Partner: 21
Predicted Score: 21
Thoughts: I firmly believe that the woman’s particular assets are going to be a hindrance versus a help… I mean seriously, since when is having big breasts a help? Ok… don’t answer that. All joking aside, I do believe they are going to be a hell of a hindrance especially with all the hopping around in the Quickstep, though the only thing worse than that? The Jive and THANK GOODNESS she’s not doing that.
Kirstie and Maks – Quickstep
- Age [60s]: 19.2
- Occupation [Actress]: 21.143
- Pro Partner: 23
Predicted Score: 21
Thoughts: Kirstie made a hell of a splash on the ChaCha, but the Quickstep is another animal and a lot faster. She seemed a little winded after the ChaCha last week. As long as she doesn’t pull a Marie, it should be fine and I hope last week wasn’t just a one dance wonder.
Romeo and Chelsie – Quickstep
- Age [20s]: 23.7
- Occupation [Singer]: 23.286
- Pro Partner: 20.5
Predicted Score: 22
Thoughts: Another young partnership that should take advantage of the energy that the Quickstep provides. However, Romeo could have trouble with posture, posture, posture… but considering he has sex appeal for days, does it really matter this early in the season?
Chris and Cheryl – Quickstep
- Age [40s]: 20.417
- Occupation [Athlete]: 20
- Pro Partner: 21.429
Predicted Score: 20
Thoughts: An athlete in their 40s? Ok, maybe not “athlete” per say, but close enough. In all honesty though, I don’t see the Quickstep being a dance that would come easily to him. I see a lower score than the calculation says, but meh… I’m not going to argue with numbers, are you?
Hines and Kym – Quickstep
- Age [30s]: 21.92
- Occupation [NFL]: 21.571
- Pro Partner: 20.5
Predicted Score: 21
Thoughts: Footballers shouldn’t have trouble with this dance, they’re suppose to be quick on their feet. Hines doesn’t have an excuse to score decently.
Thanks Marianya, great post!
I’m just wondering- was “sex appeal for days” a sarcastic remark on Carrie Ann who used it on Romeo or is it genuine?
I’m thinking Ralph, Chelsea and Kendra will do well tonight and I’m guessing/hoping for Hines, Petra, Ray and Chris to also do well. Even if it’s more unlikely for the last three.
Stacy Kiebler did a *fantastic* jive in season 2 (?? I think?) with Tony, and she’s really tall. I remember Len saying that it’s super hard for people with long legs to do a good jive, but from what I remember, Stacy’s was great. I also think it was much later in the season, though.
Kind of off topic but not sure where to post it – nice little blurb on TMZ about Maks and a special guest tonight. http://www.tmz.com/2011/03/28/maksim-chmerkovskiy-dancing-with-the-stars-cancer-treatment-vip-backstage-front-row/
@Sally
I just watched it on YT. It was a good Jive. But it was so long ago and one of the very few good “tall Jives”.
@Fig
That’s awesome. Warms my cold heart about Maks also.
Thanks Marianya! I love these stats post so much!!!
Fig, thanks for the link. So cool that Maks would do this for someone!!! <3
I think that the numbers might be a tad low but that the ratio and ranking might pretty damn close – if that makes sense. Great posts, always love looking at numbers!
Anyone else just see Diane Sawyer talking really really fast to get in all her crap before the witching, uh I mean DWTS hour???
Dear producers, please turn down the audience mics OR turn up Tom and Brooke. Thx.
Oh god, Mark has changed from Gene Kelly to Charlie Chaplin.
How goes the dancing?
Hi,
Do you guys know a link where we can watch DWTS live?
Thanks,
Ren
Ren, I don’t think there’s much hope. At least from my search. If you do find something please let us know!
My husband just walked by during Wendy’s package and asked me who the drag queen was.
Wow! Hines, Chris, and Romeo tied for the top spot this week. Kind of fun having a somewhat level playing field.
Wow. What was Mark thinking???? I wonder if he had a hand in selecting the music, or if it was forced on him… but it was strange music, strange choreography, strange costumes. And it’s a shame, because Chelsea looks to be good at this. If I was Chelsea, I think I would be talking to Chris Jericho, trying to learn that WWE “bang-him-over-the-head-with-a-folding-chair” move to use on Mark!!!
It might have been strange, but I loved it! I think the judges were a little harsh. I think that maybe it was too early in the season to go outside the box, so to speak, but I thought it was a fun, wonderful, and lively routine!
Why did Chelsea go along with Mark with that! Worst was that Mark with his costuming took the attention away from the star! Chelsea should be a shoo in for the finals on her dancing along but not sure. I am sure her fans will vote and if Kirstie’s stamina does not hold she can sneak in. But she should be up there as a leader. Is this Mark’s odd attempt to try to down play Chelsea? We know she can dance. There is no element of surprises there, silly!
I’m with Evaine. I loved it and thought Len and Carrie Ann were too harsh.
So what does everyone think about tomorrow’s encore? Chris, Romeo, or Hines?
So to recap, monkey suit, bad dancing, forgetting your steps = 18. Mime, very good dancing, unconventional routine = 18. Makes sense.
Kendra and Louis did the quickstep, didn’t they? Not the jive. I remember her boo-hooing in the video package about not being “elegant” and a “lady.” Maybe if she stopped bringing up the damn Playboy thing, people would stop seeing her that way (maybe).
I think Chris Jericho deserves the encore.
Fig – “So to recap, monkey suit, bad dancing, forgetting your steps = 18. Mime, very good dancing, unconventional routine = 18. Makes sense.”
Yep. Same old Len.