DWTS Season 12, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers
Oy veh. Another crazy night of scoring. As much as I love Petra as a person, and like Kendra too, you can’t tell me that their dances were that many points better than Ralph or Chris, or even Chelsea. It’s weeks like this where I have to wonder if the judges are trying really, really hard to manipulate who’s going home. Why do I say that? Well…gee, let’s take a look at the scoring. It seems clear, to me. The question is, will it work? 🙂
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Place | Celebrity | Score | Percentage |
1. | Hines | 25 | 11.68 |
2. | Petra | 25 | 11.68 |
3. | Chelsea | 23 | 10.75 |
4. | Kendra | 23 | 10.75 |
5. | Ralph | 21 | 9.81 |
6. | Kirstie | 21 | 9.81 |
7. | Chris | 21 | 9.81 |
8. | Romeo | 20 | 9.35 |
9. | Sugar Ray | 20 | 9.35 |
10. | Wendy | 15 | 7.01 |
As you can see, Wendy is scored WAY below the other contestants – she’s five points below the next celebrities! That is 23,365 votes per million votes cast! I don’t disagree with that at all. It’s the scoring of the other contestants where things get hinky. 🙂 Specifically, Petra and Kendra – overscored, as much as I like both of them. Anyway…
I think that Kirstie Alley’s likely the safest of them all after watching Maks get injured and then soldiering through so brilliantly. Way to Go!! Maks looked to be in pretty serious pain and even at the end of the show he was favoring the one leg and not putting weight on it. I hope like hell he’s not badly hurt, but I worry. Usually the pros on this show don’t let it show as much as Maks did, which makes me think he was really hurting. I’ve got my fingers and toes crossed for him and Kirstie that he’s not hurt too badly. Regardless, I think they are safe.
I also think that Hines, Ralph, Chris and Chelsea are also safe, not so much on the scoring, but on my perception of their popularity combined with the voting. Hines, Ralph and Chris in particular seem like they would be very popular. Hines and Ralph for sure, Chris possibly less so. Chelsea is likely the fourth of the four, but she’s got some time to ramp up the competition. Keep in mind that my analysis has less to do with actual dance ability, but more the scoring combined with my feel at the end of the night for who is connecting with the audience. Of course, the overscoring of Petra and Kendra play into this as well.
Does anyone honestly think that Kendra was 2 points better than Ralph and Chris? How about Petra being 2 points better than Chelsea and 4 points better than Ralph, Chris and Kirstie?? Seriously. Even if you are a die hard fan of Dmitry and Petra…4 points? Don’t get me wrong – I adore Petra. I think she might be an angel. Someone whose outside matches her inside perfectly. And her dance wasn’t bad, or terribly flawed – just not as good, emotionally or technically, as the others. There is no way in HELL that she should have outscored the people she did by as much as she did. Not to mention the fact that her feet came off the floor at least 3 times and Carrie Ann was conveniently blind. I can see missing one lift…but three?? The conspiracy theorist in me is screaming right about now.
Look at the scoring – you’ve got Kendra and Petra who are two not horrible but not great dancers scoring higher than those that I consider to be more entertaining and better dancers, and you’ve got Wendy way down at 15 points. Now, if you think Kendra and Petra are overscored, but others scored about right, it certainly appears that the judges are protecting Kendra and Petra from Wendy’s voting fanbase – giving them a bit of a safety net that Kirstie, Ralph, Hines and Chris may not need. Honestly, I can’t figure any other reason that Petra and Kendra end up towards the top of the pack. I think they are trying to set Wendy up to leave. I don’t have a problem with that, per se, but I do kinda have a problem with them propping up dancers just to keep them around. They did that last season and we all remember what happened there. 🙂
As it stands right now, Wendy would need about 47k votes per million votes cast to beat Petra and about 37.5k votes per million cast to beat Kendra. If Petra and Kendra were scored down at 21 with Kirstie, Ralph and Chris, Wendy would only need 28k plus votes to stay over one of them. And if the stories about her fanbase are to be believed, then she could probably do it. But those extra points provide them some protection – an 19k vote cushion if you will. 🙂
So, now, it appears more likely that Wendy, Ray or Romeo is the one in danger. For Wendy to stay she would need to do one of the following:
– Get 23,400 more votes per million votes cast than Ray, or;
– Get 23,400 more votes per million votes cast than Romeo, OR;
– Get 28,100 more votes per million votes cast than either Kirstie, Ralph or Chris
– And so on with the other contestants upwards of 37,400 votes…
Honestly, I think it’s Wendy’s time to go. I hear too much complaining about her on twitter and in the comments here. Her fanbase would have to be massive and I think tonight we will find out. IF Wendy manages to stay, then it may be Romeo – based solely on his age and the likelihood that his fanbases is a voting one.
We find out tonight!!
Good analysis. Just a guess but I sense the judges are over-correcting for the last season, maybe two. While there’s always an element of subjectivity and “who really knows what’s going on” but this season seems like the judges want to ensure a 5 way tie going down the stretch. Ironically, this type of manipulation also bothers viewers.
I think you’re right about Wendy & the scoring – certainly seems like they’re setting it up for Wendy to go home, which I have no problem with. I just hope that Wendy’s fanbase isn’t as “massive” as it claims to be and can’t overcome the points spread. And if they’re overscoring Petra & Kendra with the intention of “shielding” them as you say – then I worry that Wendy’s fanbase may be formidable and is already SLAYING Petra & Kendra in the votes department. But she didn’t need very many votes to stay safe last week, with an unknown like Mike below her; and at least the judges are scoring her accordingly this season, as opposed to the inflating they were doing to Bristol’s scores last season. I will be very, very surprised if she manages to eek out another week.
I too think they set it up for Wendy to go home. There’s noway she’ll survive this. Don’t “kill,” but I did like Hines dance. I also didn’t like Kirstie’s dance. I agree w Jay. After watching her dance on IPhone – u can see that all her weight was on Maks’ leg. Btw, I bet George Lopez is laughing his ass off.
Sorry- I didn’t like Hine’s dance
Agreed. The judges spoil the fun of the show. The commentary is more performance than insightful or helpful. It’s been said on this forum that the judges’ comments aren’t “guided” or “rehearsed,” but one does wonder.
I thought Petra’s waltz was beautiful, and it was much better than I expected from her, but no way did it deserve a 9. It sometimes seems like Len takes a liking to the pretty girls, and scores them higher than you would expect.
I agree that while Kendra and Petra were much improved, they were overscored and the dances were not better than the Big 4 (Ralph, Hines, Kirstie, Chris), and especially not better than Chelsea. Tonight should be interesting, and I hope the judging settles down next week.
So interesting. It makes sense now for why they judges scored some people higher. I sooo HOPE it’s Wendy to go home. If she doesn’t, I’m going to have serious Bristol flashbacks.
Anyone else find it a bit funny that the scores had 2 people tied for 1st/2nd, 2 people tied for 3rd/4th, a 3-way tie for 5th/6th/7th, a tie for 8th/9th…and then Wendy, all alone in last place? Seems like they don’t want to make it obvious that any one person has a “lock” on their position in the competition – except maybe Wendy.
Thanks for the great analysis, Heidi. It gives me some hope that Wendy will be sent packing tonight. Generally speaking, I’m not in favor of the judges manipulating their scores to offset the popular vote (especially if they do it regularly). However, in a situation like this (even though there’s a risk), it’s probably worth doing. They need to take care of the problem early or end up with a debacle like last season.
Yeah, Courtney, it seemed they were trying to make a point with their scoring – although, that said…everyone else DID deserve at least a 20. 🙂
So this is what I don’t understand – if Wendy has such a huge voting base, why would TPTB want her gone before stars with smaller bases, such as Petra or Kendra? Wouldn’t a large voting base result in a larger TV audience and higher ratings? I definitely agree that Wendy is the worst dancer and it’s her turn to go, but from a TV perspective, I don’t understand why they would want to manipulate it.
@Rebecca – My best guess is that they’re trying to prevent a repeat of last season, when a far inferior dancer outlasted many of the better dances they had on the show. Yes, they want people who are a big ratings draw, but at the same time, they still want to keep decent dancers around and don’t want the show to become a complete joke. Bristol making it all the way to finale last season cause a LOT of trouble – and it resulted in the finale being that much less exciting, with her 2 ho-hum performances. Was it worth it, to keep her around for ratings? Maybe, but I would think any potential benefit there would have been ratings-wise was nearly negated by all the bad press it caused. And Bristol may have had a sizeable voting fanbase, but I don’t think it was necessarily a good representation of the voting as a whole – it was more likely a small cross-section of people voting passionately, as opposed to a large group of people voting a few times. I’m thinking the same might be true of Wendy – a smaller group of very passionate fans voting in mass quantities. And you best believe TPTB are monitoring the voting more closely this season – they can likely tell when someone is legitimately popular, and when someone is just getting votes from a narrow demographic. If you keep all of that in mind, it makes a lot more sense for them to try and get rid of bad dancer like Wendy earlier in the season.
Because if Wendy does pull through then it’ll be “shocking” and it will make headlines. If she doesn’t, then the show still has high quality dancers on it (I’m just guessing).
Or what Courtney said lol
Haha…thanks Fig 🙂 Basically, I think TPTB may actually be trying to move back towards a show that draws its ratings from being a an entertaining show with good dancing, rather than a controversial show with questionable dancing. And I’m kinda glad, if that’s the direction they’re moving in – I guess you can liken it in a way to the move back to a more “simple” show in season 10 after the everything-but-the-kitchen-sink season 9, which had too many couples, too many dances, and too many new rules. Only this time, they’re simplifying their “mission”, so to speak.
I think I’m in an agreeable mood today because I agree with the article, the comments here and Courtney! It’s probably true that the judges are trying to get Wendy to leave because she just isn’t that good and they’re trying not to overscore her and make it look like last season. They’ve done their part so now the people have to vote. If enough did and Wendy stays, then well the judges did what they could and they could end up scoring her even lower like a 14 or a 13 but as the competition progresses, they don’t give very low scores like that anymore. That’s why you see plenty of 9s towards the finals.
I know Wendy has a large fanbase and is popular on her show so that will help a lot and I know a couple of people on twitter told me that there might be a shocking elimination tonight. So if that’s true, something tells me Wendy is not leaving tonight. The judges may be trying to get a couple to leave by giving them low scores but there are millions of people voting and they can save a couple. We’ve had couples in the past with very low scores and they’ve been saved. Steve Wozinak came to mind. He had a total score of 10 and was still saved. Anything can happen.
I also want to comment that it’s possible some people will not want to vote for her starting next week if they’ve seen her “weepy” interview about her Foxtrot and scores. I know she’s trying so hard and trying to be what women are all about at their size or something like that but crying about her scores and not wanting to leave like that won’t help. No one wants to leave. I think she’s starting to forget a little bit that this is all in fun so if she leaves, at least she tried but crying about low scores won’t help. I like Wendy and her personality and her efforts but in my own opinion, she sounded like a sore loser in that interview and if she’s getting low scores, then she probably deserved them. Let’s face it, I don’t think she’s one of the best dancers though she did try her best. It just won’t be fair to keep her in and let the other better dancers go like when that happened last season. The competition’s tough for everyone but everyone tries their best, including Wendy. I hope she remembers that, no matter how far she gets in this.
I do feel so bad that Maks fell down, but he was on GMA this morning and appeared to be doing just fine. I don’t think it had anything to do with Kirstie’s weight. God knows how many times they did that dance and knowing how much of a perfectionist Maks is…if it was doing that to him in rehearsals or in dress, he would’ve cut it out. Kudos to them for getting back up and continuing on. I’m sure her parents are so proud of her.
I think, after the disaster which was Bristol last season, Wendy’s chances of staying are slim to nil. Producers probably don’t want to go through that again.
See, it’s a balancing act – they can do one of two things: let the chips fall where they may and risk Wendy going through and a better dancer going home, thereby keeping those voters voting; or they can sacrifice a few online votes for the integrity (scant though it may be at times) of the show as a whole. ANYONE watching the show would recognize Wendy as the least capable dancer. At some point you have to recognize that your audience will keep watching and voting if you put on a good show. Wendy does NOT contribute to a good show the way the others do. So, if you’re one of the judges and you’re not crazy about how Bristol made it all the way to the end, you do something to prevent that this time.
Hell, at least Bristol provided (for a while) the sweet, girl next door, never danced before underdog that had people rooting for her. Wendy doesn’t provide that either.
I fear for Romeo, Ray, and Petra – although I’m hoping that Petra’s scores keep her around another week or two.
I hope Wendy goes. I give her kudos for trying but the rest of her competitors are at the same level. What’s up with Romeo and his tantrum with the shoes?
I like Wendys personality but she is obviously the weakest dancer. This is how I think it may go down. IF Wendy is truely going home then she’s gonna be ‘in jeopardy’ the whole night. But if she is safe then I think she’s gonna be called safe right off the bat. If she is safe I think we’re gonna get ‘ Our lowest scoring couple is safe, is your favorite going home’ type situations.
Did no one else notice that Petra and Dmitry’s “waltz” was NOT a waltz, but a pedestrian foxtrot? “You Raise Me Up” is in 4/4 time. It’s not a waltz. Why did they allow them to use that song? Or just not change the dance to foxtrot? I was SO confused as to why the judges didn’t say anything about that, and a couple of other things: First, Hines and Kim were behind the music the whole song, and it looked to me like Kim skipped some choreo to hit the ending on time. And Chelsea’s legs were so bent that her dance was really hard to watch. Why are they so hard on Ralph (yes his arms are bad, but his partnering and musicality are solid) and so easy on others?
@Megan, Petra actually did the Foxtrot in week 1, so I am guessing that since she already did that one, she couldn’t use the same style of dance.
I agree the judges were easy on others ** Kendra and Petra** while hard on Ralph. I am a fan of Ralph and he’s got a lot of potential to make it to the finals. This is the 3rd week of competition and Karina has failed him somewhat by not dealing with his arms and hands. Judges each week mention it and it would show he’s improving as well.
Anyways, great post Heidi! I hope its Wendy that gets eliminated tonight.
@Lisa G, well, whether she did the foxtrot in week 1 or not, she did the foxtrot again last night. That was NOT a waltz, because it wasn’t in waltz time. Granted, ballroom waltz and ballroom foxtrot have a lot of the same vocabulary in terms of variations and partnering. However, waltz time is waltz time. Foxtrot is foxtrot. I love dancing all kinds of different waltzes, including Argentine tango valse, and what they did was definitely not a waltz. I was just surprised that they allowed her to choose a song that was in 4/4 time. Production error? Or did they just assume the viewing audience was too dance “ignorant” to notice? Who knows?
Gawsh I always love these posts! Thanks Heidi. All I got to say is a LOVE the song Ray and Anna danced too, Im almost convinced Petra is actually an angel, and…i forgot cause I started thinking about Petra again, 😀 For real though it honestly should be Wendy to go which i ashame because I think she can bring more but so be it, but as much as I hate to say I fear her fanbase, also Sugar Ray I feel pretty sure has a strong following and he’s just so dang likable which we all know helps you in votes that when I think about it I dont know how huge of a fanbase Romeo has and I think he might be in danger which I realllly hope not beccause they have so much potential
Whoa, Megan, are we in a very critical mood today? By the way, Kym “skipped some choreography” because she lost her balance near the end but quickly recovered in a heartbeat to make perfect timing at the end. That’s not an easy thing to do and I give her big kudos for the fast recovery and Hines for his partnership with her when that happened. Many times, the pros overshadow or dance around the celebrities so her choreography allowed him to showcase himself as a grateful son who wanted to dedicate a great Samba to his mom and showed great chemistry and partnership between the two.
They’re not always hard on Ralph only. They’ve been hard on some others too. I think it’s because they see potential in Ralph and want him to do better. I saw him dancing during the promo shoot and he reached the top in the first week so he really got the moves!
Maybe, Ralph will withdraw!!!! Fun comments from all.
The waltz thing bugged me because it’s on par with them announcing her doing a cha cha, and having her come out and do a tango. It’s just weird. And I’ve never seen it happen on the show before. And I totally love Hines, but the music was too, too fast for them. Wish the band had played about 10% slower. Loved the choreo, tho. But go back and watch and find the samba beat in your head… They got behind it straight away, and a lot of their big moves were behind the musical hits. It’s tough performing with a live band, and I’m not sure how many times or even if they get to practice with the band ahead of time. If I were Kim, I would have been, like, “*Psst* Drummer, reign it in a hair!”
Thanks for clearing that up, Megan. The music/band and the way they play is a pretty common complaint among DWTS fans, too! Apparently, the song meant a lot to Hines so I guess that’s why they played it but the speed is in the control of the band and their director, Harold Wheeler. Hines and Kym don’t really get a say on the music at all so they have to go with their pace. Couples don’t usually get to rehearse with their music when they’re rehearsing in the studio. I think the first time they hear the music is when they do the dress rehearsal or maybe camera blocking which is the day before so there’s not a lot of time to rehearse with the music the band will be playing. They can only do their best.
I kinda agree with Megan regarding Petra’s waltz. The count was in 4/4, and the whole time I was confused if I was missing something. It was graceful, but it was hard to watch IMHO as I was confused with the counts. It was kinda bizarre…i don’t know.
On a different note… great analysis! I really enjoyed reading posts on this site.
@Megan and Sheep, My cynical side says TPTB didn’t care that the song Petra chose was in 4/4. They knew the song + her personal story would be a big emotional hit with the audience. They couldn’t have her actually repeat the Foxtrot so they reached into the dance bag and pulled out “Waltz”. Thank goodness they didn’t grab the “Rumba” card. On a related note: This is why the celebs shouldn’t be allowed to choose their song even though we sometimes complain about the songs they’re assigned to dance to.
@Cidra – Oh I totally agree. Hmmm, rhumba to Josh Groban. Lovely. I genuinely LIKE Petra. She and Ralph seem like the most genuine celebs this season. But geez, I adore Ralph. He’s actually the reason that I wanted to take swing dance lessons when I “grew up.” When I saw the short little dance scene in Karate Kid II at, like, 7 years old, I fell in LOVE. WIth Ralph AND with partner dancing. Twenty years later, I’m teaching social dance, and I’m so addicted to it that I’ll drive hours and hours just to go social dancing till 4am, and now my hero is on DWTS!
@Liz – Their samba was much better tonight. Yeah, transitioning to performing with a band from rehearsing with a CD is difficult.The worst I ever saw on the show was that Charlie’s Angels Foxtrot that Lacey and Kyle did last year during TV Theme Week. I love those two, and I have never seen walking steps drag so badly. I felt so bad that they drew that theme. Poor Kyle. I loved his samba, though.
Actually, they do get a CD of the music cut down for time, but by the original artist – they get it fairly early. I believe they then get a CD of the orchestra version later in the week – but that doesn’t mean the tempo during the live show will match. I remember Derek or Mark – or maybe Maks or Cheryl – talking about when they get the music and how that works. I also remember one of the pros saying that the music was too fast during the live show. I also got the impression somewhere that Derek (and maybe others) talks to Harold a good bit during camera blocking and dress rehearsal to make sure it comes out how he wants it.
Along the same lines as what Heidi just said, I also vaguely remember an interview a few years back that someone did with Harold Wheeler, where he admitted that the band sometimes “takes liberties” with the music in order to “help” the couples. He said something like “Sometimes we increase the tempo to try and rev up the couples”. Now whether or not this would truly be helpful, I’m not sure – I think it would throw quite a few couples off. Sometimes I think the band might alter the song a bit just to fit their own abilities – I know there’s been a few songs that have been done in a different key in order to suit the abilities of their vocalists. Wouldn’t surprise me if they messed with the tempo from time to time, too.
I remember reading an interview with Mark Cuban about the music – he and Kym had practiced to the CD all week, but Kym thought the tempo wasn’t right (if I recall, she thought it should be faster). So she discussed it with Harold Wheeler, and got the orchestra to speed it up for the performance… Cuban said it messed him up more than he thought it would. 😉
…found the link about Mark Cuban:
http://www.dmwmedia.com/news/2007/10/01/mark-cuban-dancing-with-the-stars-time-to-go-for-it
They practice to a CD by the original artists all week, there is no orchestra version CD. And they can talk to Harold about what tempo they want the song played at. It is still a Huge change to go from the original version to live version I think. 🙂