DWTS Season 12, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, the judges are determined to make this show easy to predict, whether that is their intention or not. My question for the week – was Kendra REALLY 3 points below everyone else, in particular Ray, who has worse technique than Kendra but sure seems to be enjoying himself a whole lot more? I dunno. Yeah, she’s annoying, but really? Ray has a leg up in the likeablity factor, for sure, but 3 points?

Anyway, this week it will most likely come down to Ray and Kendra – I would consider anyone else leaving a surprise at this time. I think next week could be VERY interesting if Kendra goes this week. Will the judges continue to make it clear who they think should go? Because next week we venture into the territory of there being decent dancers who have little fanbase to speak of (Petra), versus not great dancers who are charming as hell who happen to also be sports legends (Sugar Ray) – then a whole lot of uncertainty in the middle. Is Chris really hitting it off with the audience like I think he is, in addition to being a pretty good dancer? Is Kirstie as popular as I suspect she is, despite having mishap after mishap on the dance floor?? Things could get very sticky next week and if they are too harsh with Ray they could send Petra packing on a Ray-sympathy vote – and if they continue to ridiculously inflate her scores? I might have to start tweeting them. :-) Anyway, let’s look at the scoring for this week:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Chelsea 26 12.62
2. Hines 25 12.14
3. Ralph 25 12.14
4. Chris 23 11.17
5. Petra 23 11.17
6. Romeo 23 11.17
7. Kirstie 22 10.68
8. Ray 21 10.19
9. Kendra 18 8.74

As you can see, Kendra is 3 points below her nearest competitor. Normally on this show, 3 points isn’t a huge deal. Well, it is if your name is Kendra. People who are popular with the E! set don’t have a stellar track record of being vote getters – of course, none so far have been great dancers either. :-) So, while those 3 points only translates to 14.6k votes per million votes cast, that’s a pretty high number when going against Sugar Ray Leonard. How does Kendra stack up against all the other dancers? What would it take for her to stay? One of the following would have to happen:

- Kendra gets 14,600 more votes per million votes cast than Ray, or;
- Kendra gets 19,450 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, or;
- Kendra gets 24,300 more votes per million votes cast than Petra/Chris/Romeo, or;
- Kendra gets 34k more votes per million votes cast than Ralph/Hines,OR;
- Kendra gets 38,900 more votes per million votes cast than Chelsea.

As you can see, from the above, it’s relatively unlikely that anyone other than Kendra or Ray goes home. Why not Kirstie? Well, she’s Kirstie and I think she’s winning hearts with who she is and not so much with her dancing. For her to go home, both Kendra and Ray would have to beat her in votes by the required spread. Now, if she doesn’t do a clean dance next week, we may be having a different discussion. At the end of the day, Kendra needs to beat at least Ray and I don’t see that happening. If she does much better with voters than I expect, I think Ray will go home because I don’t think Ray can catch Kirstie. If Kendra gets lucky and does much better with the voters than Ray does, in order for Ray to stick around he needs the following:

- Ray needs 4,900 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie,OR;
- 9,750 more votes per million votes cast than Petra/Chris/Romeo,OR;
- 19,450 more votes per million votes cast than Ralph/Hines.

Yeah. I don’t see that last one happening either. Looking at the other two sets of numbers, however, you will see why I think next week will be very, very interesting indeed – unless the judges continue to force a big spread between the pack and the weakest dancer. That’s not a whole lot of votes, statistically, between Ray and Kirstie, Petra, Chris and Romeo. Who would be the possible loser in that fight other than Ray? Petra and Romeo, I think. Provided that it goes like I think it will tonight, we’ll have that discussion next week. :-)

So, who’s going home? I’m saying Kendra, and probably easily. Although I’ve been wrong before, so It could be Ray instead. But my money’s on Kendra.