DWTS Season 12, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well. Overall, I was underwhelmed. Loved Romeo and Ralph, for different reasons. Still love Hines and Kirstie. But this Derek fan is missing him terribly. I don’t need to list the numerous reasons why. :::sigh:::

Poor Chris and Cheryl – he was too much in his head and it showed in his dancing. And, as I believe I mentioned in last week, in the comments if not in the post itself – NO ONE can afford to have an off night. You have an off night this season and you can pretty much count on going home unless your name is Ralph, Kirstie or Hines. I just think those three are the vote getters – I could be wrong, of course.

Anyway, on with the scores…

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Romeo 28 15.56
2. Chelsea 28 15.56
3. Hines 27 15.00
4. Kirstie 26 14.44
5. Kendra 25 13.89
6. Ralph 24 13.33
7. Chris 22 12.22

So, what does Chris have to do to stick around?? Well, he’s going to have to rely VERY heavily on his and Cheryl’s fans this week. His saving grace is Cheryl Burke in that she is probably the most popular female pro on the show. Has Chris formed enough of a voting fanbase out of DWTS regular viewers to stick around? I’m very sad to say that I kind of doubt it. Here’s what he needs to have happen to stick around:

- He needs 11,120 more votes per Million votes cast than Ralph, OR;
- He needs 16,700 more votes per Million votes cast than Kendra, OR;
- He needs 22,250 more votes per Million votes cast than Kirstie, and I could go on but I won’t.

The ONLY one I see him reasonably beating is Kendra and I just don’t know that his and Cheryl’s fanbase is that much bigger than Kendra’s. I hope like hell I’m wrong. I really think after the fall that Ralph is safe (and was probably safe before the fall) and I also think that Kirstie and Maks are very well liked. So, what happens if Chris does MUCH better in the votes that I’m thinking he might? Well, next in danger is my sweetie, Ralph. :-) If we take Chris out of the equation and say he gets plenty of votes, what does Ralph need??

- Ralph needs only 5,600 more votes per Million votes cast than Kendra, OR;
- Ralph needs 11,120 more votes per Million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;
- Ralph needs 16,700 more votes per Million votes cast than Hines, OR;
- Ralph needs 22,250 more votes per Million votes cast than either Chelsea or Romeo.

I can see Ralph getting that many more votes than Kendra, easily, but the rest of them? Not sure. Not sure that it even matters, since I think it’s pretty much down to Kendra and Chris tonight, with Chris going home. I hope I’m wrong. :-( For Ralph to go HOME and Kendra and Chris to both stay, it would mean that Chris got 11,120 more votes per million cast than him and Kendra got more votes than him, period, since she has a higher judges score than him. It would mean that he didn’t have the 5,600 more votes than her that he needed. I don’t see that, which is why I think it’s down to Kendra and Chris. Follow?

Let’s say I’m hugely wrong, and we’re in shocking elimination territory – it is the magical week 6, after all. Or is that cursed? :-) Who are the most likely “shocking elimination” people?? Well, since they are two of the people who came into this thing with smaller VOTING fanbases, I would have to say Chelsea and Romeo. I think Hines likely has a massive fanbase, as do Kirstie and Ralph – again, these are assumptions on my part and you know what happens when you assume. Anyway, I think Chelsea and Romeo are the two celebs who are the largest candidates for “shocking eliminations”. So, if either one were to be eliminated tonight, ALL of the following would have to happen:

- It would mean that Chris got 33,350 more votes per million votes cast than the one going home, AND;
- It would mean that Ralph got 22,250 more votes per million votes cast than the one going home, AND;
- It would mean that Kendra got 16,700 more votes per million votes cast than the one going home, AND;
- It would mean that Kirstie got 11,150 more votes per million votes cast than the one going home, AND;
- It would mean that Hines got 5,600 more votes per million votes cast than the one going home, AND;
- It would mean that the person at the top of the leader board STAYING got ONE more vote than the one going home.

Yeah. I don’t see it happening either. Again, I could be wrong, but that’s a lot of votes. If it happens to one, it’s more likely Romeo… but then, he’s been doing really well, so maybe not. Hines is only one point off Chelsea and Romeo and is arguably more popular, so I don’t see that happening either.

And here’s a problem I see happening for the next couple weeks; someone who doesn’t have a huge voting fanbase coming into this show (Chelsea, Romeo, Kendra, Chris) has an off night and they go home. I am thinking that the Ralph/Kirstie/Hines fans are greater in number and therefore PROBABLY counter any lower scores from the judges. SO, if you are one of those other couples and DON’T happen to score at the top of the leader board? Bye Bye. And this is what I think will happen to Chris tonight. It could be Kendra, but I’m thinking Chris. Very sadly. What happens if, after tonight, everyone does very well?? HA! I don’t see it – this season has been too wacky. We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.

Sorry, Chris – I will miss you and your darling fake British accent.