DWTS Stats Class – Week 7
“Ballroom Greats” Theme Night…? Er?
See Guilty Pleasure Night I totally agreed with, that was nice. Hell I wouldn’t mind a “One Hit Wonders” Night to bring back some good old fashioned memories, but puhlease!
ANYWAY! To the predictions
Ralph and Karina – Quickstep
– Age [40s]: 22.412
– Occupation [Actor]: 24.333
– Pro Partner: 21.143
Averaged Predicted Score: 22
Thoughts: Ok, I’m a little excited about this dance, mainly because I loved his Foxtrot in the opening week and the magic that came with it and I REALLY want to see that spark again. They captured the spark last week had it not been for the mishap, I’m hoping that the sparkle stays this week.
Kirstie and Maks – Jive
– Age [60s]: 21
– Occupation [Actress]: 21
– Pro Partner: 23.6
Averaged Predicted Score: 21
Thoughts: Umm, help? I don’t know if this is a very good choice for Kirstie considering how winded she has been after dancing. I’m worried, very very worried, but if anything she’s had time to build up some stamina along the way, so here’s hoping.
Romeo and Chelsie – Samba
– Age [20s]: 26.615
– Occupation [Singer]: 25.222
– Pro Partner: 22
Averaged Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: Romeo is continuing his uphill climb on the leaderboard tying for first last week. Is he peaking too early or just right? Only time will tell.
Hines and Kym – Tango
– Age [30s]: 25.283
– Occupation [NFL]: 23.5
– Pro Partner: 24.8
Averaged Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: Hines is probably one of the few celebrities that is pretty strong in both ballroom and latin dances. He’s that fantastic balance. I expect him to do decently well in the Tango, just how well? I don’t know
Chelsea and Mark – Paso Doble
– Age [20s]: 26.8
– Occupation [Disney]: 26
– Pro Partner: 28.6
Averaged Predicted Score: 27
Thoughts: Ok, I’ll admit it, she is grudgingly rubbing off on me and I don’t like it. But the numbers show that she is slowly climbing up the leaderboard as well. Still I prefer Romeo/Chelsie pairing over the Chelsea/Mark pairing. But considering this is a Quickstep I expect her scores to go sky high.
Kendra and Louis – Tango
– Age [20s]: 25.25
– Occupation [Reality TV]: 20.5
– Pro Partner: 24.25
Averaged Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: I’m going to repeat what I said last week: Why the frack is she still around? Can’t we cut her out please? Like now? I’ve got nothing to say about her, she’s not improving in my opinion, and her comments come off as odd for me. So yeah, gone… like now… like last week. Now aside from all that, I’ll grudgingly admit, she seemed to have fun with her Samba last week, granted that table dance was a bit over the top, and she seemed far too comfortable up there, regardless, unless she gets over her phobia over the more elegant dances, I really don’t want to watch her.
I thought Chelsea/Mark is doing the paso?
I think Chelsea/Mark already did quickstep last week to “Walking on Sunshine.”
LOL Marianya about Kendra. I’m so with you!!
My predictions:
Mark/Chelsea — 29 (The median Paso score from the judges is an 8, and the average is just a little bit higher. Mark tends to score extremely high on the Paso, never getting less than a nine from the judges if you don’t count group dances.)
Kym/Hines — 24
Maks/Kirstie — 24 (The median Jive score from the judges is an 8, and the average is close to that as well. Maks has received 7s, 8s, and 9s on the Jive)
Louis/Kendra — 23
Chelsie/Romeo — 22 (Again with the judges and eights. Chelsie does not typically score high on the Samba, but she has hardly ever gotten to do one, much less with such a promising partner. I could be way, way off on this one.)
Karina/Ralph — 21 (Judges median Quickstep score is an eight, average is 7.77. Karina has scored high on the Quickstep before but usually does not; is this because of the partners she is often paired with?
Wow! Interesting predictions Biffette. I think you may have underestimated Ralph score a little. With a 21 and everybody else higher it would put him as the one most likely to go home. I actually saw a little clip of their practice the other day and it looks good. Karina also seems to be excited so I am hoping this will be his comeback week and we see the spark we saw in the first week. I want to see Kendra as the one eliminated this week.
It’s a week according to Kym in her TV guide interview where they are not doing stories or themes, it will be a straight on dance competition.
I’m peeved at Ralph. He DID have actual BALLROOM training .http://readingeagle.com/article.aspx?id=304886 I thought that was a no-no in this competition. Some things you’re taught never leave you. No wonder his standard dances are better than his Latin. His old teacher thinks the same as I do, she’s tough on him because he SHOULD be better, she said he’s making some of the same mistakes.
@ Lisa G, LOL, I think it’s pretty unanimous here; we all want to see Kendra eliminated this week (heck we wanted her gone 2 weeks ago), but somehow there are enough voters out there keeping her in. I just don’t get it. Who are these people? I’m hoping she gets all tangled up by the Tango, and once we’ve got her trussed up like a Christmas goose, we can toss her off the show.
I’m expecting a great Quickstep from Ralph/Karina. Hope they nail it and get high marks.
Very worried about Kirstie and the Jive. Hope Maks has something up his sleeve (if he’s wearing any) to get maximum mileage out of the dance with minimum effort on Kirstie’s part.
Romeo could turn in a great Samba if he’s willing to really bust loose. Guess we’ll see if he’s fully committed to this ballroom dancing thing.
With the Paso, I think we’ll find out if Chelsie is an actress or just a Disney kid. I’m curious to see what she’ll bring.
I don’t see Hines killing the Tango. He’s not a great actor and Tango doesn’t suit his personalityut. But Mr. Consistent should come through with a solid effort. I’m not expecting anything memorable.
I think the coaching from Luca is going to help everyone who has Standard dances this week. He’s awesome. I love watching him dance. He doesn’t try to dazzle with fancy footwork, he just mesmorizes you with his use of of stagecraft and how smooth he dances. Shirley is going to help Mark and Chelsea, big surprise.
It’s funny…. My teenaged daughter watched DWTS from last week, on the DVR, and after she saw the whole thing, she was a bit angry, and was upset… “Why didn’t Kendra leave? I want Kendra to leave! THIS is the week that Kendra will leave, I INSIST that she will go home finally! I wanted her gone a few weeks ago!”
Then, she watched AI from last week, on the DVR, and after the whole thing, she was a bit angry, and was upset… “Why didn’t Jacob leave? I want Jacob to leave! THIS is the week that Jacob will leave, I INSIST that he will go home finally! I wanted him gone a few weeks ago!”
And I just laughed to myself, because it hit me…. Jacob is the Kendra of AI this season…. The one who seems to be staying when they really should have been eliminated before some more talented contestants.
@Mary, yes it does look like Ralph had some Ballroom training, but it seems to have been when he was a kid, more than 25 years ago. I read the article and looked at the photos that are with the article. The dance photos look like they are simply recital photos, like my 3 girls have. It really doesn’t look like any type of competition. Still, 25 years ago. I seem to remember that Donny Osmond was said to have hired a ballroom dance coach to prepare himself for being on the show, am I remembering that correctly? I think I would have a bigger problem with that, since it was much more recent.
@25 years ago, Ralph is still a young adult. I knew there was training there, even if he wasn’t perfect, I learned to dance ballroom from the age of 6 to 14 and I never forgot what I was taught. He’s far better at Standard then Latin and now we know why. It is funny because Karina is not a strong Standard dancer, but she’s the best there is in Latin.
Biffette, saying that a given pro has never scored below a 9 on a Paso doesn’t take into account that a pro is often eliminated PRIOR to the Paso. Marianya, on the other hand, does take that into consideration.
Oh Bull, Mary/Andie – you must be a teenager yourself if you think something learned as a kid is relevant at an older age. Frankly, you’ve proved nothing to me. This woman clearly states he was a “youngster” and that it was well before Karate Kid – that means that close to or more than 30 years have gone by. If they eliminate people that took lessons as children, no one would be allowed to dance on this show. And be honest, you’ve ALWAYS had something against Ralph.
And yes, Donny did have very recent ballroom training – as in the year before he was on the show.
Thank you to those of you that caught my mistake…
My apologies, I’ve updated the predicted scores w/ the correct ones now.
@Princess, it’s not bull. I learned to swim at 5 and I haven’t forgot. You learn to dance at a young age and you never forget. Anybody who takes BALLROOM dancing at a young age has the advantage. He has MORE of an advantage than Donny Osmond who took a Ballroom classes at 50. There’s no way around that. It’s like asking someone who took ballet at a young age to do a dwts – ballet version. They will have the advantage.
@Mary. I wouldn’t get my knickers in a twist about Ralph’s prior training. So he had some training 30 years ago and remembers some of it. His Latin isn’t “all that” and even his standard isn’t top-notch. He’s hardly running away with the competition.
For Andie, Donnie’s experience and training isn’t as important because she was rooting for him/Kym. Isn’t that how it always works?
I love Ralph, but clearly he did not come into this competition being a dancer. Last week he was on the bottom of the scoreboard. Not where you would think a trained dancer would place. But theres something about him when he dances. Hes adorable. Thats what sets Ralph and Hines apart from the others, you just cant take your eyes off of them when they dance.
@ Biffette Like your standings, but seriously you must be a Mark fan. Setting Mark/Chelsea 5 points above the nearest competitor when this race is neck in neck sounds like wishful thinking on your part.
I love me some Ralph, Sandy and you’re right – he is adorable. Just something about him. I meant to give him a “Most Gentlemanly” Cheesecake award and then it slipped my mind because I was worried Courtney had been in a car accident or something. 🙂
I agree with you about Ralph, he IS adorable, and there’s just this special sweetness about him. Not to mention he’s a fun dancer to watch. He and Karina really “pull” me into their dances, and I can’t take my eyes off them.
JMO, but one of the things that makes Ralph’s dances so nice to watch is his ability to spin. Karina works a spin (or two) into every dance, and Ralph seems to pull them off flawlessly… I don’t think I’ve seen any of the other celebs this season literally spin around the dance floor like Ralph can. 🙂
@ LisaG: I hope I underscored Ralph . . . he’s my favorite and I get all flushed whenever he’s on-screen.
@ Heidi: I’m aware that Mark often gets eliminated before the Paso, but it doesn’t change the fact he’s done several in the competitiona and always scores quite well. It’s nice that Marianya takes that into consideration though. That’s why she’s one of the behind the scenes people on this blog while I’m just a casual commenter.
@ sandy: I’m a huge Ralph fan but I try not to let it get to me while guessing at scores. I’m thinking that I most likely underscored some couples, w/e.
Overall: Ralph makes my face hot and and stirs my insides. I start to sweat just thinking of him. I like everyone else too, but not as much.
SPOILERS*****SPOILERS*****
Mark/Chelsea: Eights on their Paso! A first time for everything.
Nice recovery, Biffette. LOL
?? & Has John considered adding a forum?