DWTS Season 12, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers

:::sigh::: I will say, thank god for Ralph and Hines, because the show really wasn’t happening for me until they danced. The team dances were okay, but I thought that Team Hines was the clear favorite, both with the studio audience and certainly with me. Ya know, if both teams have technical issues, give an edge to the more entertaining team. For me that was certainly Hines’ team, even though I love Ralph.

Note to the judges – you are ONLY helping the low scoring dancers by giving everyone the same score on the team dance. When you add in that extra 180 points to the total and then divide that into the total score of each couple, you have roughly cut the spread in half. And with it goes the number of votes needed per million cast for a lesser dancer to stay over a better dancer. Essentially, for Romeo to “beat” Ralph, he only needs 16k votes, instead of 30k votes per million votes cast. That’s HUGE. I really don’t think these guys understand the impact of how they score. Are they really good actors that they can drum up faux outrage when a good dancer lands under the red light of doom? Not that I think Ralph is in any danger. I don’t. But they gave Kendra the old helping hand, didn’t they?

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Ralph 66 17.51
2. Hines 66 17.51
3. Chelsea 64 16.98
4. Kendra 61 16.18
5. Kirstie 60 15.92
6. Romeo 60 15.92

So, what does all this mean, when combined with my comments above about the team dance? Well, really, I think the only ones REALLY safe are the two at the very top of the leaderboard – Ralph and Hines. I would be surprised by NO ONE else going home. It will all hinge on how hard the fans voted. The problems I see in the near term are with Kirstie and Chelsea – Kirstie is not dancing well and may be wearing out her welcome, and judging by the comments here and elsewhere, Mark is DEFINITELY wearing out his welcome. How long is the average voter just going to vote for Kirstie because they love her and Maks together (like me)? How long are those who used to love Mark going to hold out and keep voting for bad behavior?? This is what I have to ask myself when I look at these numbers. Another problem, as I see it, is Kendra – I’m starting to like her again. She seems to have wrapped her head around ballroom and is having fun. I bet I’m not alone in that. What all this spells for me, still, is that Romeo in trouble, since I think Kirstie has one more week in her and Chelsea’s score MAY be high enough.

Anyway, down to the nitty gritty…Romeo and Kirstie are the low scorers of the night. What do they need in order to stick around? One or the other of them needs ONE of the following things to happen:

– One of them gets ONE more vote per million votes cast than the other, OR;
– One of them gets 2,660 more votes per million votes cast than Kendra, OR;
– One of them gets 10,650 more votes per million votes cast than Chelsea, OR (unlikely);
– One of them gets 16k more votes per million votes cast than either Ralph or Hines.

Now you can see why I am pretty sure that Ralph and Hines are safe. At the very least, I don’t think Romeo is going to pull that many more votes (in addition to everyone else getting way more votes) than Ralph or Hines in order for one of them to leave. Remember, not only does Romeo really have to score the votes for one of them to go, but everyone with a lesser score than them would ALSO have to get way more votes than them. But I skip ahead. :-) So, I’m calling Ralph and Hines safe. But what if Romeo, along with Kirstie, is charming the crowd like crazy (despite both having bad dances last night)?? What if they both get the votes to pass Kendra? Let’s say they both get the 2,660 votes each, per million, to pass her? What would it take for the “shocking elimination” of Chelsea to occur? ALL of the following would have to happen:

– Kendra gets 8,000 more votes per million votes cast than Chelsea, AND;
– Romeo and Kirstie BOTH have to get 10,650 more votes per million votes cast than Chelsea.

If all three of those people get those votes, Chelsea goes home, provided that she doesn’t get more votes than Hines and Ralph and I really don’t see that happening. But then, I don’t see Romeo getting the required votes to outlast Chelsea, so I think she’s safe.

Just for fun, let’s look at the requirements for a SSE – Seriously Shocking Elimination. :-) What would it take for either Hines or Ralph to go home?? For either of them to get the boot, ALL of the following would have to happen:

– Romeo AND Kirstie both get 16k more votes per million votes cast; AND,
– Kendra gets 13,300 more votes per million votes cast than one of them; AND,
– Chelsea gets 5,350 more votes per million votes cast than one of them; AND,
– One of them gets ONE more vote per million votes cast than the other one of them. :-)

Nah. Just don’t see it. My feeling is that it will come down to Kendra and Romeo with Romeo going home – of course, they’ll put Chelsea or Kirstie in “jeopardy”…probably because of Mark’s behavior or they want to boost Kirstie’s votes, which ever feeling is stronger in the producers guts. :-) That we’ll have to see about. I obliquely stated it above, but to clarify, for Kendra to leave both Kirstie and Romeo would have to get 2,660 more votes per million votes cast and all the other dancers get more votes than her as well. Kirstie? No problem, I don’t think (but one can never tell when charm won’t get you past bad dancing anymore). Romeo? Tough call. I like the guy. But is he more well liked that Kendra?? That’s really not very many votes, but Kendra has a more regular presence on TV than Romeo does and therefore, theoretically, more fans. Actually, by giving everyone the same score on the team dances, the judges helped Romeo as much as they did Kendra.

Very sad to say, I think we may have seen the last of Romeo…if not him, then Kendra. Kirstie? You are on notice, honey – you desperately need a good dance next week. Mark, straighten up, because 10k for Romeo and Kirstie isn’t out of the realm if you keep misbehaving. You never know what will make an audience turn on you. A part of me would NOT be surprised for you to be the “shocking elimination” this week. A small part. :-) I think you’re lucky Romeo had a bad dance. It will be interesting to see what happens if I’m wrong. ;-)