Lord save me from this season already! I was only impressed by the two at the bottom of the leaderboard and ya know? This tells me there is a bit of insurance policy writing going on. Chelsea and Hines both got a nice policy as did Kirstie, although to a lesser extent. Chelsea deserved hers more than Hines, but no way did she deserve that many 10s. Sorry, not buying it. Unless no one is voting for them Chelsea and Hines should be safe, while the judges seem to want to see the backside of Ralph as he leaves the building. No, he didn’t do perfect dances, but his dances were close to on par with anything that Kirstie and Romeo did for their second dances. No way in hell does Ralph fall 6 points below Romeo and 7 points below Kirstie. Don’t get me wrong – I love both Kirstie and Romeo, and I think Romeo’s Tango was the dance of the night…but 6 and 7 points?? Why don’t you just point at Ralph and say “Get the f@#k out.”
That said, I would prepare for a shocking elimination tonight. :-) Ralph has a HUGE hurdle to overcome, but it can be done. Don’t ever underestimate the sympathy vote. Not to mention that his age and the age of The Karate Kid movies intersects pretty perfectly with the main demo for DWTS. Unfortunately, the person who will suffer for it is the person who danced my favorite dance of the night – Romeo. The only person who I wouldn’t mind if they went home is Chelsea and Mark, although I give mad props to Chelsea for telling Mark basically what I’ve been saying since week 1 – you go girl!! Mad props. However, I don’t see her going home, not with Ralph that far down in the standings. :::sigh::: So, where are we?
The Judges Scores and Percentages
The problem for the judges (since they are the ones who created this mess – I think intentionally) is that IF Ralph manages to get what he needs to stick around, it seriously opens the door for a truly shocking elimination. Why? Because they’ve bunched all the other dancers somewhat close together, although the point spread between Romeo and Chelsea rather insulates her. They kinda hosed Romeo on his first dance and they were excessively mean to Ralph – which often results in rabid voting by those fanbases. Now, there was a lot of whining on twitter last night about how Chelsea was hosed (Seriously? She got two 10s. You want Len’s head up her…never mind. :-) ) but I saw just as much “we gotta vote for Ralph!!!” The potential losers in this situation are Romeo and Kirstie, and I think Kirstie can beat Romeo every time. Which leaves us with Romeo. The guy who, IMO, had the best dance of the night. Anyone who reads this site regularly knows I’ve been on the Kirstie/Ralph/Hines train since day one, so that should tell you something. Dancing, to me, isn’t just executing steps correctly – it’s the feel of the dance, the way the music combines with movement, the costuming – EVERYTHING, which in turn either does or doesn’t make an emotional connection with me. Romeo and Ralph did that for me last night, so to lose either of them is, for me, a total bummer.
Anyway, provided that Ralph doesn’t bow out (and I don’t think he will, since Karina was asking for votes last night), he has some serious work to do to stick around. He needs ONE of the following things to happen in order to stay on the show:
– He needs 23,080 more votes per million votes cast in order to pass Romeo, OR;
– He needs 26,930 more votes per million votes cast in order to pass Kirstie, OR;
– He needs 30,800 more votes per million votes cast in order to pass Hines, OR;
– He needs 34,650 more votes per million votes cast in order to pass Chelsea.
Now besides noting the fairly large numbers that Ralph needs to stick around, note the fairly compact grouping of those numbers. That illustrates that once you get past Ralph, there isn’t that much spread between the dancers. IF Ralph can manage 24,000 votes, it could get interesting. :-) Sorry, but I’m hoping it DOES get interesting.
Ah, so what are the odds that Ralph beats out Romeo?? Even money, I think. Romeo only needed a tiny number of votes to beat out Kendra last week (was that only last week? It feels like a lifetime ago), and for all we know he only made it by one over a contestant who many were finding annoying, to say the least. Let’s take Ralph out of it and say that his fans killed themselves voting. What does Romeo need, in that case?
– He needs 3,850 more votes per million votes cast to pass Kirstie, OR;
– He needs 7,700 more votes per million votes cast to pass Hines, OR;
– He needs 11,550 more votes per million votes cast to pass Chelsea.
I don’t see him getting that many more than Chelsea, although I suppose it’s possible that he could get more than Kirstie. But I doubt that too. Unfortunately. Since there are only five people still in the competition, I’ll just show you the rest of the numbers. What does Kirstie need to beat Hines and Chelsea?
– She needs 3,850 more votes per million votes cast to beat Hines, and;
– She needs 7,700 more votes per million votes cast to beat Chelsea.
In order for Hines to beat Chelsea (if it comes to that), he needs only 3,850 more votes per million votes cast than her. This is why it could get interesting. For Chelsea to be the Audrina-style “shocking elimination”, ALL of the following needs to happen:
– Ralph gets 34,650 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
– Romeo gets 11,550 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
– Kirstie gets 7,700 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
– Hines gets 3,850 more votes per million votes cast.
I don’t really see the first two happening at all. But if they do? I can see the last two EASILY happening. Which means Chelsea would go home. Now, if she were dancing with Tony or Jonathan or Louis, she would be in serious trouble for a shocking elimination. But she’s not, she’s dancing with Mark, who’s fans are more rabid that either Maks’ or Derek’s. It’s not about numbers of fans, but how willing they are to stay up all night to get retribution for their wronged heroine. :-D I have a theory that rabidity is inversely proportional to age – remember, Derek is dating Cheryl Cole. I know from young, rabid fans. :-) For that reason, I think Chelsea is safe. Or course, since I’m dealing in generalities, one never knows.
So who do I think is going home? Well, I think it will come down to Romeo and Ralph, thanks to the judges. And my head is telling me Ralph can’t get the votes, but my gut is telling me he WILL get the votes. So which is correct? My head or my gut? I have no idea. :-) Maybe if I make the easy call and say Ralph will go home, the DWTS gods will smite me and send someone else packing. So…that’s what I’m doing. Working Karma to my advantage. ;-)