DWTS Season 12, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers!
Lord save me from this season already! I was only impressed by the two at the bottom of the leaderboard and ya know? This tells me there is a bit of insurance policy writing going on. Chelsea and Hines both got a nice policy as did Kirstie, although to a lesser extent. Chelsea deserved hers more than Hines, but no way did she deserve that many 10s. Sorry, not buying it. Unless no one is voting for them Chelsea and Hines should be safe, while the judges seem to want to see the backside of Ralph as he leaves the building. No, he didn’t do perfect dances, but his dances were close to on par with anything that Kirstie and Romeo did for their second dances. No way in hell does Ralph fall 6 points below Romeo and 7 points below Kirstie. Don’t get me wrong – I love both Kirstie and Romeo, and I think Romeo’s Tango was the dance of the night…but 6 and 7 points?? Why don’t you just point at Ralph and say “Get the f@#k out.”
That said, I would prepare for a shocking elimination tonight. 
Ralph has a HUGE hurdle to overcome, but it can be done. Don’t ever underestimate the sympathy vote. Not to mention that his age and the age of The Karate Kid movies intersects pretty perfectly with the main demo for DWTS. Unfortunately, the person who will suffer for it is the person who danced my favorite dance of the night – Romeo. The only person who I wouldn’t mind if they went home is Chelsea and Mark, although I give mad props to Chelsea for telling Mark basically what I’ve been saying since week 1 – you go girl!! Mad props. However, I don’t see her going home, not with Ralph that far down in the standings. :::sigh::: So, where are we?
The Judges Scores and Percentages
| Place | Celebrity | Score | Percentage |
| 1. | Chelsea | 55 | 21.15 |
| 2. | Hines | 54 | 20.77 |
| 3. | Kirstie | 53 | 20.38 |
| 4. | Romeo | 52 | 20.00 |
| 5. | Ralph | 46 | 17.69 |
The problem for the judges (since they are the ones who created this mess – I think intentionally) is that IF Ralph manages to get what he needs to stick around, it seriously opens the door for a truly shocking elimination. Why? Because they’ve bunched all the other dancers somewhat close together, although the point spread between Romeo and Chelsea rather insulates her. They kinda hosed Romeo on his first dance and they were excessively mean to Ralph – which often results in rabid voting by those fanbases. Now, there was a lot of whining on twitter last night about how Chelsea was hosed (Seriously? She got two 10s. You want Len’s head up her…never mind. ) but I saw just as much “we gotta vote for Ralph!!!” The potential losers in this situation are Romeo and Kirstie, and I think Kirstie can beat Romeo every time. Which leaves us with Romeo. The guy who, IMO, had the best dance of the night. Anyone who reads this site regularly knows I’ve been on the Kirstie/Ralph/Hines train since day one, so that should tell you something. Dancing, to me, isn’t just executing steps correctly – it’s the feel of the dance, the way the music combines with movement, the costuming – EVERYTHING, which in turn either does or doesn’t make an emotional connection with me. Romeo and Ralph did that for me last night, so to lose either of them is, for me, a total bummer.
Anyway, provided that Ralph doesn’t bow out (and I don’t think he will, since Karina was asking for votes last night), he has some serious work to do to stick around. He needs ONE of the following things to happen in order to stay on the show:
- He needs 23,080 more votes per million votes cast in order to pass Romeo, OR;
- He needs 26,930 more votes per million votes cast in order to pass Kirstie, OR;
- He needs 30,800 more votes per million votes cast in order to pass Hines, OR;
- He needs 34,650 more votes per million votes cast in order to pass Chelsea.
Now besides noting the fairly large numbers that Ralph needs to stick around, note the fairly compact grouping of those numbers. That illustrates that once you get past Ralph, there isn’t that much spread between the dancers. IF Ralph can manage 24,000 votes, it could get interesting. Sorry, but I’m hoping it DOES get interesting.
Ah, so what are the odds that Ralph beats out Romeo?? Even money, I think. Romeo only needed a tiny number of votes to beat out Kendra last week (was that only last week? It feels like a lifetime ago), and for all we know he only made it by one over a contestant who many were finding annoying, to say the least. Let’s take Ralph out of it and say that his fans killed themselves voting. What does Romeo need, in that case?
- He needs 3,850 more votes per million votes cast to pass Kirstie, OR;
- He needs 7,700 more votes per million votes cast to pass Hines, OR;
- He needs 11,550 more votes per million votes cast to pass Chelsea.
I don’t see him getting that many more than Chelsea, although I suppose it’s possible that he could get more than Kirstie. But I doubt that too. Unfortunately. Since there are only five people still in the competition, I’ll just show you the rest of the numbers. What does Kirstie need to beat Hines and Chelsea?
- She needs 3,850 more votes per million votes cast to beat Hines, and;
- She needs 7,700 more votes per million votes cast to beat Chelsea.
In order for Hines to beat Chelsea (if it comes to that), he needs only 3,850 more votes per million votes cast than her. This is why it could get interesting. For Chelsea to be the Audrina-style “shocking elimination”, ALL of the following needs to happen:
- Ralph gets 34,650 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Romeo gets 11,550 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Kirstie gets 7,700 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Hines gets 3,850 more votes per million votes cast.
I don’t really see the first two happening at all. But if they do? I can see the last two EASILY happening. Which means Chelsea would go home. Now, if she were dancing with Tony or Jonathan or Louis, she would be in serious trouble for a shocking elimination. But she’s not, she’s dancing with Mark, who’s fans are more rabid that either Maks’ or Derek’s. It’s not about numbers of fans, but how willing they are to stay up all night to get retribution for their wronged heroine. 
I have a theory that rabidity is inversely proportional to age – remember, Derek is dating Cheryl Cole. I know from young, rabid fans. For that reason, I think Chelsea is safe. Or course, since I’m dealing in generalities, one never knows.
So who do I think is going home? Well, I think it will come down to Romeo and Ralph, thanks to the judges. And my head is telling me Ralph can’t get the votes, but my gut is telling me he WILL get the votes. So which is correct? My head or my gut? I have no idea. Maybe if I make the easy call and say Ralph will go home, the DWTS gods will smite me and send someone else packing. So…that’s what I’m doing. Working Karma to my advantage. 
I’ve been vacillating all day long about whether Ralph’s fan can rise to the occasion – one hour, I’m certain he’s safe; the next, I’m almost positive he’s leaving. But I will say this: if it does indeed come down to Romeo & Ralph in the bottom 2, then I am going to have to pull for Ralph, despite how much I’ve come to love Romeo. Why? Because I think Ralph is the only one with a fanbase big enough to run interference on the judges’ predetermined finale. I could see him potentially bumping Chelsea out of the finale, if he’s able to last through this week. Romeo? Highly doubt it. If he doesn’t go home this week, I can almost guarantee he’ll go home next week, if the judges keep up with this shady scoring. And hell, the boy just seems surprised & thrilled that he made it this far, and just wants to “celebrate & have fun”. Something tells me it wouldn’t be a crushing blow to Romeo to get sent home tonight.
Great post. Agree with you entirely. The judges displayed low class behavior last night. Like you said, “Here’s your hat, Ralph. What’s your hurry?” The disparity was not that great. Are they trying to lose viewers?
I think Romeo will go home. However, I don’t think that with Ralph’s injury he will make it though next week. I am a nurse, and I know that is a painful, long-time-to-heal injury. The stiffness and the pain will last longer than just a few days. He needs to stay off of it for it to heal, and you can’t do that and be ready for next week.
Personally, I am for Kirstie all the way. This article says it best, it is not JUST about the dancing. It is about having the entire package and Kirstie has the entire package. Chelsea is a better dancer, but she is not entertaining.
Yup, this is my problem. One minute I think he’ll stay, the next I’m thinking no way. And then a third moment tells me that Chelsea could actually go home a la Audrina. Basically – no idea.
Guys, I really don’t like romeo. Liked Daniel-san despite the pain that he was obviously feeling. he got all my votes.
This week was not that good for me… and it’s strange because the couples are good and enjoyable…
dunno… maybe it’s something wrong with me… hehe
While I think Ralph’s waltz was underscored, the cha-cha was not that good. With the time he had to practice (20mins) that’s understandable. 7 was about the right score. It doesn’t bother me too much as my final three would be Romeo, Chelsea and Hines as they are the best dancers. I know I’m going to get brickbats for this but I just never got the Kristie love. As a dancer she is so-so at best. Her personality as big as it is doesn’t put her over the top for me.
I have a feeling the judges already have the final 3 picked, ifso Ralph or Romeo will be leaving this week and next. And if Ralphs injury is severe enough he may not be able to produce again next week. It kills me to think that bratty Mark could be in the finals, I really cant stand to even look at him any longer. Winning the MBT for a third time would make me vomit.
With that said, Ralph or Romeo will be missed regardless, they have both done a phenomenal job this season. So Bravo!
Thanks for the info. I LOVE Ralph, and provided he is physically able to continue, I will be very upset if he gets eliminated tonight. Not only because he is the highlight of the season for me, but I’ll also be upset because the judges maniupuated it so much.
I think that Romeo will be going home tonight. Ralph is way behind, but I’m betting that he has huge audience support. He also has the sympathy vote and the 7′s were way too low–especially since they have been giving 8′s to those who have fallen.
I wonder if Ralphs fanbase is larger than Kirsties and thats why they may not want him in the finals. They have overscored her the entire season. And been super tough on him. A 10 for the AT, that dance was not 10 worthy at all. Ralph could be her biggest threat as far as fanbase.
Great post, Heidi I just wanna ditto everything you said. I have no idea who will go but gawd I want it to be Chelsea and Mark! I would also like to hear our DWTS insider’s opinion on the matter ( aka Buttercup
).
@Carlos – Yes, we know you don’t like Romeo. Pretty sure you’ve told us on every single post that you are “praying that he gets sent home”.
@Heidi – I don’t think the Audrina-esque elimination of Chelsea is completely out of the realm of possibility. If our readers here are any indication, it seems like quite a few people are fed up with Mark – and are willing to lose Chelsea in order to teach him a lesson. Combine that with some angry Ralph fans, some devoted Kirstie/Maks fans, and a growing number of Romeo/Chelsie fans, and it could mean trouble for Chelsea & Mark. Or Hines…I have to wonder about him. I’m sure he’s popular, but then again, we’ve never even gotten to see him plummet on the leaderboard to get a feel for how meaty his fanbase is. Maybe the judges are giving him a cushion for a reason – he may not be getting as many votes as we think.
@H-Man – We don’t mind differing opinions – in fact, we welcome them
As long as you aren’t being antagonistic about it – telling people “You’re wrong for liking Kirstie!” or just being combative – we aren’t going to hate on you 
I don’t want to see Ralph or Romeo go. I’m starting to like Romeo again. This may change next week. So, now I’m torn. Can’t Kendra just come back just to be eliminated again?!? Haha.
Thanks for the numbers break down Heidi. I tend to think it is between Romeo and Ralph with no clue which one it will be. I love Ralph, so I’m hoping its Romeo, although I would be thrilled if it is Kirstie. I think Hines and Chelsea are safe. IMO, Mark and Chelsea have not lost votes in any significant numbers because the people most fed up with him were not voting for them anyway. I also won’t underestimate the power of a Jonas in the audience to get those young fans voting. Not sure if the Casey sighting and Kyle visit would be of any benefit, but I think this couple has enough votes to make it through to next week.
The problem, Michele, is we can never really be sure if the youngsters impressed by a Jonas are actually voting on this show. They aren’t *watching* it in sizable numbers unless they are Mark fans, and how would they know that Kyle, Jonas and Casey would be there anyway? At least, according to the ratings breakdowns DWTS is getting killed in that Demo. So, I don’t know if a Jonas has a real impact. As for people not voting for Mark and Chelsea anyway – well, I think that Mark failed to capitalize in a huge way on the absence of Derek. I know I am far from the only Derek fan who pretty much opened up the floor for someone to make an impact. I ended up going with Hines/Kirstie/Ralph and definitely NOT Mark/Chelsea. Last night I threw a few votes Romeo’s way as well, because I was impressed with his Tango. I was looking for a favorite – and it ended up being Ralph. Mark’s issues, for me, started late last season and he’s just not managed to rehab it. But I did think I was going to like Chelsea very much so I went with a semi-open mind. So, I think it’s a mistake to think there is a huge conglomerat out there “not voting for Mark”. I think the average viewer does just what I did this season – sits back and just waits to see who they like. Those are the people who win the show for you. And apparently even Chelsea is congnizant of the fact that they may have done some damage there.
Did anyone think Chelsie H. is showing her limits as a pro with Romeo? Somehow I think Romeo can do so much more. While I liked their tango, i thought it could have been better.
Chelsea/Mark had the best night I think.
I cant say it enough that Kirstie should go… but no such luck, I know.
I hope Ralph doesn’t go. No one should go because of an injury and he could very well be safe with loads of people supporting him. I really felt for him and Karina.
I’m thinking it’s gonna be Romeo. I loved his Paso but that was his only outstanding dance for me. The Tango could have been much better if Chelsie wasn’t over dancing Mark style and if she let him lead and show himself more. I think the scores were on point. The salsa had a nice feel to it but his hips are still non existent.
Kirstie did ok. Not outstanding (especially in the salsa) but good enough to get her through. There were some really nice parts of their AT.
The confrontation thing Chelsea&Mark did just didn’t look very sincere to me. I still dislike them as a couple. The dancing in salsa didn’t look like salsa at all even if it was intricate and fast. In their Waltz I was with Len. The storyline seemed a bit forced to me, not like they created it with their movement as it should be. And this is coming from someone who LOVED Mark’s Waltz with Bristol.
I’m reading Hines was over scored allover the place. I dunno, his Jive wasn’t perfect but it was pretty damn good. Not 10 worthy but definitely 9 worthy. I enjoyed it. And his foxtrot was funny as hell, cheese to the max. Kym kinda went someplace strange with that choreo but I also love the fact that it’s almost semi finals and she still keeps it relaxed and silly, not trying to be someone who she isn’t. And presumably he isn’t as well. You don’t get the feeling like they’re intentionally dancing for getting the highest possible score (cough Mark cough Chelsie). So I still think they are the strongest couple.
I’m now hoping for a Hines/Ralph/Kirstie (she took the third spot from Romeo this week for me) finale.
sandy-you may be right Just want to see good dancing-the Nicole, Evan, Erin season was, I thing, pretty strong performance-wise. And the Finals results are in—Kirstie and Hines-first time ever on DWTS an exact tie. Ralph has to come back to karate chop the mirror ball trophy right in half. If there are any slivers left over, Bruno keeps them as toothpicks. Ralph may bow out this evening???
Excellent write up Heidi!! Your gut is usually right on and now I am really scared!!! Prepares for what I don’t want to happen. Please let the shocking elimination happen instead (MARK and CHELSEA)!!
@Courtney… Actually, Steeler Nation is HUGE. They’re very passionate about their favorite team and Hines Ward. The Steelers isn’t just a football team to most fans. It’s kinda like a religion, as a Steeler fan called it. It’s very big in Pittsburgh and of course, the fanbase for the Steelers is worldwide. But still… anything can happen on DWTS so I wouldn’t say Hines is a shoo-in to win this.
@sasa, I agree, Kym likes to make her choreography fun and entertaining but at least she kept the elements of the foxtrot in so that’s why it worked and Len was pleased. Len isn’t as traditional as some people think. Mark’s Paso Doble didn’t look like a Paso Doble to me so that’s why Len gave him a hard time that night. Also, the salsa… I agree. When Chelsie and Mark started the salsa, I’m like, “what is that??” But then I don’t know much about ballroom dancing and don’t see the salsa as much as I seen the foxtrot, jive, cha-cha etc….
Sasa, you and I are on the same page regarding Hines and Kym!
I was feeling a bit lonely with my appreciation of HK’s dances last night.
Interesting to watch, the scores once again scores were in left field.
First of all I think Mark Bales looked like a guy off the street, His waltz was not graceful, his dress did not match the waltz, Chelsea dress extenstion of grace on both of them did not come thru.
When you think of a waltz, I think of Jennirfer and Derek, even Florcence Henderson had more grace to her walts.
I hope Mark and Chelsea are gone tonight, His self centered ego is disgusting.
Ralph, and Romeo I just wonder if they will be
used for the week 9 elimination?
Mark and Chelsea need to go
Thank you all for your thoughts.
Maks has a ego problem, that I do not like,
Christie has improved, I might add she has put more into and work then Bristol Palin she gained weight, but then she had the idea she had it all sewed up. That was wrong and unfair to the others.
I hope like hell that Ralph doesn’t go home tonight (and that he can work through/around/with his injury). I hope it’s Romeo going home – out of the 5 left, he’s the one I have the least attachment to. And my wish for the finals? That Kirstie makes it. I would also like to see Ralph and Chelsea there, but given ONE wish? That would be if Kirstie makes it to the end.
Vogue, Heidi said her gut says Ralph will get the votes so you must mean you’re scared for Romeo?
Thanks for correcting me Zach. I read her post too fast.
I think one of the Mr. R’s is going home tonight which is sad because I don’t want either of them to go. What a disaster that Ralph got hurt at this critical point in the season, and we’ve ended up in this mess.
I’m going to put myself in front of the dart board and say if Ralph’s injury prevents him from rehearsing enough so that he can perform to his full potential, it’s better if he gets eliminated tonight. Some say it’s not fair to be kicked off because you were hurt. On the other hand, it’s not fair to keep someone in who can’t give it 100% at the expense of the other dancers who are still able to give it their all.
I have no more clue than any of you who will go home tonight, but if it comes down to Ralph/Romeo, I hope it’s Romeo. I’ve been very impressed with his growth over the season, but he is just not as invested in the competition as Ralph and has many other commitments going on. From what I saw during the week, I expected their Tango to be somewhat of a mess and I’m pretty sure Chelsie did too. That they managed to pull it off that well was shocking to me, but not enough to convince me he deserves or wants to stick around. The Salsa was the dance they felt more comfortable with and I think it showed.
I think Chelsea is the most talented dancer in the competition but I can’t really root for them as Mark annoys me as well.
I’m keeping my fingers crossed for Romeo. He gets my Most Improved award for not only his dancing but also his on-screen personality. The outcome I want tonight would lead to an all male final with Romeo/Hines/Ralph. I hope that happens. Please Dancing Gods/Goddesses hear my chants and prayers and answer them accordingly:)
On a side note, was Chelsie H. channeling Britney Spears’ red jumpsuit in Oops, I Did It Again?
Oh hahaha I wasn’t correcting I just didnt want ya to be worried.
But your welcome!
I like all of the remaining contestants, but if I had my absolute choice, Hines would go home tonight, followed by Kirstie next week. I could swap out Kirstie for Romeo, but I really would like to see what Romeo could bring to the table in a freestyle. But since that’s not going to happen and it seems to be a toss up between Romeo and Ralph, I guess if Romeo goes home tonight I’ll be happy – he came far in the competition and I think Ralph wants to be there more. I would then love for it to be a Kirstie/Ralph/Chelsea finale. But I’m sure Hines will be there, which I’m okay with, just like him a little less than the others.
@Liz – I don’t doubt for one minute the size of the Steeler Nation. I’m a Colts fan – trust me, I’ve had more than a few run-ins with some die hard Steelers fans
But I have to wonder how many of them are actually tuning in & voting, and I do find it odd that Hines has never once been “in jeopardy”. Not sure what kind of message that’s sending…
@Laurie – I didn’t necessarily dislike Hines’ performances last night. I just thought they were overscored, and not his best. For me, he has yet to top his quickstep in week 2 and his samba in week 3 – he really peaked early.
I wonder if Ralph is getting so many votes that they know he’ll be safe regardless – and the shocker will be when he gets saved. I hope so!
I gave Ralph all of my votes, both house phone and cell. If the judges hadn’t been down on him earlier this season, I would wonder if they were trying to eliminate him now to keep him from dancing with an injury. They know that most people won’t back down at this point. They’ve seen it happen before. Ah well, it was just an idea.
I’m torn between watching the results show, or just getting things done around the house, and checking online.
This bog is awesome..99.9% right most of the time..Sorry to see Romeo go..thought Ralph was gone…
Au contraire, Cidra – if you can perform the dance, get judged and the people vote you through, that’s the ONLY thing fair about this show.
Not surprised at all the Mark hate around here. This is the most biased site I’ve seen. Mark and Chelsea are the best dancers there and like all the Derek fans whined last year…It should be the best dancer, It should be the best dancer!!! With that said, I love Mark and Chelsea but don’t think they have a big enough fan base to win.
Oh Beth – whine, whine, “bias”, whine. This Derek fan doesn’t make determinations for other people who should win or how they should vote. Some say best dancer, some say most improved, some say whoever has no experience. I think you’re projecting here because I’m pretty sure I’ve never said “best dancer should win” – I pretty sure I even admitted that I will vote for Derek no matter who he’s dancing with.
And if you don’t like this site? Well, don’t let the door hit ya where the good lord split ya.
Well Derek usually gets the uber ringers so I guess you could say, she is the best dancer. You might not make determinations for others but you sure are threatened by Mark. I am sure Derek would be so proud of how you treat Mark.
Oh Beth, keep drinking the “if you like Derek, you must like Mark” Kool-Aid. The rest of us here haven’t developed a taste for it.
Yet another unhappy fan crying “bias!” because they don’t agree with us. Damn right we’re biased – and so is everyone else, including you. We’ve never claimed not to be – this is a BLOG, not Fox News. And we should all vote for Chelsea & Mark because YOU, almighty Beth, say so? Nowhere do I see it written in stone tablets that “thou shalt vote for the best dancer”. I vote for who entertains me the most – and last season, that was Jennifer.
Gee, wonder what Mark would think if he knew some of his fans were this bossy…
Courtney, If the shoe fits, wear it! Sure vote for Chelsea and Mark, that would be wonderful. I just find it nauseating that a site would call itself “PureDWTS” and vilify the pro’s…that would be any of the pros. All I heard from Derek fans last season was Vote for the best dancer. They were so afraid that Miss Bristol might beat the ringer Jennifer. Thanks for noticing, I am the almighty Beth!
“Vilifying”? Last I checked, people here were just voicing their opinions – and a good number of them just don’t care for Mark’s behavior this season. If you call that “vilifying”, then you’d probably cower under bed at my definition of it.
Beth, honey, it’s not just the writers here that are hating on poor, defenseless little Mark – a
good deal of our readers feel the same way. As for you not liking the title of the site – did I miss something here? Is there some sort of subliminal messaging in Pure DWTS that screams sunshine & rainbows & mad love & adoration for all pros (but really just Mark)? No. People can talk about anything they want to here that pertains to the show – including Mark’s behavior & how they feel about it. Find it nauseating? Go puke…and leave us “Mark-haters” alone.
Keep repeating that lie, beth, someone might eventually believe it. Then again, probably not.
That a mark fan can rage about Derek’s ringers with a straight face is just hilarious – Derek has won the show twice without a ringer. Mark? Not so much.
So, beth, I guess you voted for Derek every time mark was voted off early, right? And you and all other mark fans always support Derek in everything he does and NEVER campaign against him, right? Or do you resemble mark himself – taking support where you can get it, never offering any in return?
Oh, of course! You voted for Derek both in season 10 and 11 because he was with the best dancer, right? That’s what you were trying to sell in your first post, after all. Right? Yeah, that’s what I thought.
Beth, if you think that this site is biased then you need to do a little research around the net! This site has people who support all the dancers and pros for many different reasons.
Mark’s attitude and disrespect for the judges/show/assigned dances is the reason that it is very hard to support his team.
Being edgy is one thing–but when you are doing show dances with VERY little content instead of the assigned dances–you’re points should be docked!
If Mark doesn’t want to do his his assigned job and thinks this job is beneath him then perhaps it is time for him to move on to something that he finds worthy of his talents.