DWTS 12, Week 9 – Dancing With The Las Vegas Odds Before Showtime
The Las Vegas Odds are looking interesting again. They’ve got Kirstie and Ralph tied in the 3rd spot. Chelsea is in 2nd place. Hines, once again, is in first place. I’m no expert, but, I’d say these odds are so close that it’s a hard call. Each one of these contestants has their plus and minus sides working for or against them. To say one of them is dominating would be foolish. (Heidi’s Note: I’m no expert either, but I don’t think the bottom 3 are that close to Hines for this stage of the game – they’re pretty much calling it for him. I think. Anyone?)
1. Hines Ward 2/3
2. Chelsea Kane 4/1
3. Kirstie Alley 5/1
4. Ralph Macchio 5/1
Here’s to tomorrow night! Get ready!! Your VOTES count more than ever especially with a looming “Winner Takes All” Cha Cha Bonus Dance which could alter voting in the judges favor!!!
Loved all these. I so agree about Jacoby because that man brought fun to the dance floor...
Why bother voting or even watching if the voters get no say. Pretty big risk. Are you reading this ABC trolls
Yes, Heidi – as I read those odds, Vegas has called it a slam sunk for Hines – he’s at less than even money.
We need to vote!!! Is the only way to keep your favorite in. In my case Ralph 100%. All my friends will do the same so… come on, Vote (for Ralph!!!)
Awww..Hines is the favorite, that nice. Imo, a Chelsea or Ralph win would be nice too.
Elisa, all my votes go to Ralph, too. Love him!:D
@Elisa – All my votes go to Hines for the WIN. But I wouldnt be too disappointed with a Ralph win. Hes awesome as well.
Interesting, but with the judges playing a big part of who gets to the final, I’m not sure I’d trust betting on the vegas odds. Maybe that corrupt NBA ref will be the guest judge this week….
Can anyone make a charity to vote for Ralph & Karina for me? I’m from Brazil!
I dont know about those odds anymore. After seeing how Kirstie’s fanbase and Ralph’s fanbase (coming back 6 points down, and helping to kick Romeo out of the competition last week), not to mention how much time Hines and Kym have had to rehearse this week, or how well Kym will actually be able to perform, I think it’s really anyone’s game. It’s going to be an exciting Monday, and a probably shocking Tuesday results show.
M, the voters are part of the determination of who wins and that’s what these odds are talking about. It’s the Bonus Round that the voters don’t get to determine. The Bonus Round gives the 15 points owners a big boost into the finals but it doesn’t give them the trophy.
@Rina, anything is possible but you need to think positive! Just because Kirstie and Ralph have large fanbases doesn’t mean they are shoo-ins to win. The only way they will win is if their fans log on and call to vote and I’m sure not every one of their fans are going to do that. That’s way too many people. I also think that it was sympathy votes that got Romeo eliminated, not only Ralph’s fanbase. I bet there were fans who haven’t been voting for Ralph all season who voted for him to get into the semi-finals after his injury. Kirstie is kinda all over the place. One week, she’s better then she’s worse the next week then back to being better. It’s hard to say. I agree about Hines and Kym. Even though they have the Steeler Nation, we, again, don’t know how much of that fanbase are voting and after Kym’s injury, it is possible they will receive sympathy votes but then they might not get as much as Ralph did. Kym is a pro and I’m sure she’s had a bunch of injuries her whole life. She’s tough and she said she was feeling better so it might not affect her so much. I know neck injuries can be serious and the video was scary but again, Kym’s tough and I think she’ll pull though. It’s possible for pros to get injured then bounce back as if they were never injured in the first place.
@M. Zin, Sure…I’ll validate a new account (I like the sound of “MZ4Ralph”) and vote it for Ralph and Karina. My word on it!
The odds makers don’t have any more clue about who’s really getting votes than I do – they are likely using the same metrics as I have been in my estimation of who will win. I’ve been saying hines for most of the season although I waver a bit from time to time.
M. Zin – I’ll be voting for Ralph.
Kirstie may be comparable to Donny Osmond, but, at least, regardless of our favorite, whomever wins I think most of us can live with that person being #1-all of them have dancing skills and celebrity skills. I do enjoy the seasons with “ringers” like Mel B, Kristi Y, Melissa R, Jennifer, Nicole all had some scintillating performances, once we watch repeatedly on YouTube, I expect. I would like some new judges to freshen the show up.
Are we sure that this bonus round is 15 points?? It seems an almost insurmountable number, almost unfair. Where did this number come from?
That number came from Brooke Burke’s mouth on the last results show, Jill.
And it is insurmountable, nearly.
You left out a LOT of ringers, Bruce, and you included a person who was NOT a ringer – Jennifer. This topic pisses me off so much that I will be doing a post on it once the season is over. Just because someone is a good dancer, you don’t get to label them a ringer.
Donny Osmond, unlike Kirstie Alley, had actual Ballroom lessons prior to being on the show. Add that to his huge fanbase and he’s one of the bigger ringers out there.
@Heidi – Thank you! I thought the same thing when I read Bruce’s post. All those comments bugged me last season. Nicole, yes. Mel B, yes. Jennifer, no.
@Heidi, Look forward to your post on ringers because I’m also getting really tired of the way many fans throw that term out pretty randomly. Just like there will always be people who feel there’s some value in Dial Idol’s DWTS voting results (sigh), there will never be consensus on what a “ringer” is. However, a post on ringers would be a great platform for discussion and education.
Since the subject of Jennifer being a ringer has been brought up again, my thoughts on the matter are the following. Ringer is really not the right word to use, in my opinion. She wasn’t a trained dancer and she did have physical issues. But that being said, she was a TOTAL fan favorite – I mean, come on, America’s sweetheart? Baby from Dirty Dancing? The regular girl that the gorgeous Patrick Swayze introduced to womanhood and lived the dream all of us dreamed? Just based on the way that movie made women of my age (54) get all wistful and ready to relive our girlish dreams, she had a HUGE edge with the regular viewing public. I think… I think, that’s why so many folks term her a ringer.
Kirstie has much the same thing going for her this season with one very important difference. Her weight (and by extension her stamina). Had Kirstie been more in-shape when the season began, she probably would have been tarred with the same ‘ringer’ brush. And she’s never really been America’s Sweetheart the way Jennifer was. She’s the naughty girl – always has been.
So, was Jennifer really a ‘ringer’ in the proper sense of the word. No. I actually think that if you apply the proper definition of the word, there really haven’t been that many actual ringers. Foregone conclusions? Oh hell yes. But ringers? Nope.
Evaine, I think there are many, many people who define “ringer” simply put, as “Derek’s partner.” I don’t post over on the network board, but I’ve seen enough to remember how horribly people treated both Lil Kim and Joanna before the partners were announced, and people being glad that they “obviously” will be going home quickly, there is no way that anyone would vote them to stay around…. And then, they are paired with Derek, and the talk immediately changed to, “Derek always gets the ringers”. Yesterday they were despised and were already being told to pack their bags, and he next day, those same people were decrying them for being obvious ringers. I think if Derek had Bristol last season and Jennifer had Mark, instead of the way it ended up, we would have seen Bristol being called the ringer. Instead, Derek’s partner was called the ringer, even being a head turn away from being permenently paralyzed.
I don’t think Derek has had that many “forgone conclusions” either. lol
(Just Jennifer under your definition.) Evan was the real “ringer” that season. I think he lost because Derek choreographed to Jennifer’s strengths. Well Derek just choreographed!! There’s the key!
Evan lost to Nicole.
But, I don’t think that either Nicole or Jennifer were forgone conclusions. Jennifer might not have lasted the season without having a partner who could choreograph around her physical aliments/problems.
Nicole had dance experience and expected to dance well. But, she was competing against a popular Gold Medal winning Olympian MALE who because of his sport had plenty of training that does include “dance.” Good dancing wouldn’t have beat Evan. It took “WOW” dances to beat him.
Jennifer being a ringer or not is really open to debate – but that wasn’t really the point (and we have defined two different kinds of “ringer” – fanbase and experience). The point is Derek has had no more “ringers” than Mark or even Maks. Hell, Tony has RECENTLY been given TWO partners with very good ability and both were young and attractive. The statement was “I’m tired of Mark and Derek getting all the young partners and ringers”. BULLSHIT. The asinine comments that get thrown Derek’s way are just rubbish. Jealousy, pure and simple- ways of downplaying what is a very real ability to choreograph one hell of a good dance and excusing other pros who haven’t when it counted.
Yeah, I have to agree with Cori, more that I think about it. Jennifer also had a couple weeks where she was in the bottom or close to the bottom of the pack. Hell, she nearly dropped out the last day. I think she has a fanbase, but is it a Donny Osmond or Shawn Johnson or Kristi Yamaguchi fanbase?? I also agree about Evan. None of these were issues that Mark had with his ringers. Maks and his? Yes. Mel B was up against Julianne and Helio – just a very likable couple all the way around.
You know – it’s never been about the ringers. I like ringers because I like great dancing. What I don’t like is the bullshit line that “Derek gets all the great partners” that some children like to spew. Until they start auditioning people to be on the show, you don’t know who’s going to be good for real unless they are an Evan Lysacek, or someone with experience like Sabrina (oh, Marks’ had THREE ringers, forgot), Mel B or Nicole or Mya. That line completely negates Derek’s actual talent for teaching and choreography.
I think in comparing celeb fanbases, you have to keep it within the same season, because that’s when it’s relative. I think Jennifer’s fanbase was the biggest of her season for the reasons I stated above. It really doesn’t matter if Donny’s or Shawn’s or Kirstie’s for example, is bigger or smaller than hers, they weren’t competing against each other.
And you know… Jennifer didn’t win just because Derek was a wonderful choreographer, give HER some credit too. She was very likable for the most part, charming, had the ability to pull off the fragile elegance Derek was showcasing. Not only did Derek make her look good, she made him look good in return. As Maks said in one of the interviews with Kirstie… and I’m paraphrasing… It doesn’t matter how good I am, it’s the couple together, I’m only as good as you are. And you’re good.
I was wondering…. who had a larger fanbase? Evan or Nicole? I thought Evan had a really large fanbase because he came from the Olympics and lots of people watch that. Then again, I think some of you said that some didn’t vote for Evan because of his beef with Johnny Weir.
Liz, I would pretty much safely assume that Evan had a larger fanbase than Nicole to begin with – however, I think that Derek has a much larger fanbase than Anna which helped counter that, and Nicole was pretty much the best dancer and won a lot of fans during the run of the show. I think Evan probably lost some votes over the whole Weir issue too. What I would really like to know was the final vote spread for the final three voting. But… *sigh* …. we’ll never know that.
Well, you’re rather mis-representing what I said and missing the point of my complaints about the ringer discussion, Evaine. Or you’re making it WORSE – I haven’t decided yet. So, Jennifer had the biggest fanbase of her season? You don’t actually know that any more than I know, for sure, that Kirstie has the biggest of this season. And even if so, it still doesn’t mean that Derek gets “all the ringers and young dancers” now does it? No. THAT is the point. So, now that Maks has had Kirstie, and has had ringers BEFORE, do we get to say that Maks gets all the ringers and/or young dancers? Of course not. Conversely, how would YOU feel if people said, “Maks has never won because he’s a crap choreographer.” That would be about as accurate as Derek only does well because he has had all ringers, would it not?
Of COURSE Jennifer gets credit too – again, not the point. The people who claim that Derek gets all the ringers and good dancers are denigrating both of them. Still not right. It really pisses me off because it implies that neither Derek nor Jennifer (nor any of his other partners) had to do any real work to get where they got. Jennifer was 50 years old with lots of injuries and she still worked her ass off. Nicole is naturally talented and worked her ass off – as did all of Derek’s partners and Derek himself (with the possible exception of Lil’ Kim). All of his partners had as many liabilities as they did benefits and they all worked hard. Erin was always such a bitch about it too, acting like Nicole just went in there and killed it with no work, so she fanned that lie as well. Ugh.
All I’ve said was that in MY OPINION, Jennifer had the biggest fanbase of her season, that’s all, based on my reasoning as stated above. And honestly, the only time I would call any of Derek’s partners a ringer would be Nicole, but she had the disadvantage of a smaller fanbase. JEEZ, I’m NOT running Derek down! Every time the young man’s name comes up, if you don’t fall all over yourself to say he’s the most wonderful thing on the dance floor, Heidi, you seem to take it as a slam of him. Quite the contrary, in my case. Where have I slammed him? Is giving him credit for the biggest DWTS pro fanbase wrong? Is saying that he’s talented wrong? Is saying that he and Jennifer made their partnership work wonderfully, wrong?
Anything I have said about fanbases is my opinion and I have tried to be objective about it. I have said that in reality I think there have been very few ringers in the history of DWTS. Many HUGE fan favorites, but few ringers. I thought I had presented my thoughts in a logical fashion and steered clear of any Derek bashing because I know he’s a huge favorite around here.
And I believe that every dancer (with a few notable exceptions – Master P for one) works their ass off in this show. Whether they have natural dance talent or not. And that’s why I mentioned giving Jennifer some credit too – because sometimes in these discussions we tend to forget the celeb partner and focus on our pros.
So, please, don’t intimate that I’m one of those people that says Derek gets all the ringers, or that his partners never have to work their asses off or any of that. I understand that it pisses you off to hear that. The same way it pisses me off to hear unreasonable and unfounded things about my favorite dancers.
Jesus, Evaine, who’s getting excited now? Take a pill. I am talking about what OTHER people have continuously done and continue to do and yes, it pisses me off. I only said that you were missing (ignoring) the point of the conversation that you jumped into head first. You clearly missed the others who started this little discussion yesterday AND you conveniently ignored the key points. Frankly, I think you still are. ITS NOT ABOUT THE RINGERS, fer christ’s sake!! How many times do I have to say that?? I guess I made the mistake of trying to talk about your comments that didn’t apply to my original point about the fallacy “Derek gets all young dancers/ringer” – my mistake. Here are the key sentences from my previous posts where it CLEARLY indicates that I’m not talking about YOU and what I”m trying to talk about:
“And even if so, it still doesn’t mean that Derek gets “all the ringers and young dancers” now does it? No. THAT is the point.”
“The people who claim that Derek gets all the ringers and good dancers are denigrating both of them. ”
“What I don’t like is the bullshit line that “Derek gets all the great partners” that some children like to spew.”
“Jennifer being a ringer or not is really open to debate – but that wasn’t really the point (and we have defined two different kinds of “ringer” – fanbase and experience). The point is Derek has had no more “ringers” than Mark or even Maks. Hell, Tony has RECENTLY been given TWO partners with very good ability and both were young and attractive. The statement was “I’m tired of Mark and Derek getting all the young partners and ringers”. BULLSHIT. The asinine comments that get thrown Derek’s way are just rubbish.”
And there is lots more where that came from. Now, really, how many times do I have to say exactly the SAME thing for it to continually get off that track an on to Jennifer’s fanbase and Nicole’s fanbase and theoretically attacking YOU?? I take part of the blame for even remotely discussing with you the parts of your posts that were off the topic of the original conversation, of which you were NOT a part. But really, you took part in getting the conversation off the original point – I’m not the sole problem here. I will however, continue to get pissed at what I see as rampant stupidity and revisionist history, whether it’s about Derek or not. By the way – I”M NOT SAYING THAT ABOUT YOU, just in case you weren’t clear. Nice cheap, personal attack, by the way – I think you’ve seen me get very excited about more than just Derek.
Okay, peace, Heidi. Peace.
And yes, I have seen you get excited over more than Derek.
Patronizing. :::sigh::: Whatever.
No, I just don’t want to argue anymore.
???????? Why is he still here. HINES SUCKSSSSSS he can’t dance, he is stiff as a board. The pro dancer is doing all the work. Hines only skips and moves from side to side any trained animal can do that. the judges are playing favorites and giving him scores, he is not earning his points. If they cut Ralph over Hines, DWTS will lose alot of viewers. Because the judges have filthy mouths and don’t score right. Hines should have NEVER received a 10 never he can’t dance. I will ask again WHY IS HE STILL HERE????????????? HINES SUCKSSSSSSSS.
I know someone else with a filthy mouth J/JP (and please stick to only one user name ok?).