Well, two more weeks to go. Two individual and one crazy-ass dance with will skew the game in a horrible way (and based on twitter and celeb interviews, I’m pretty damn sure my previous post was accurate). Of course, because the whole season was a mish mash, the semi-final is also a mish mash. So….who’s dancing what?
Ralph and Karina – Argentine Tango and Salsa
Voting Number: 1.800.VOTE4.08
Chelsea and Mark – Argentine Tango and Rumba
Voting Number: 1.800.VOTE4.01
Kirstie and Maks – V. Waltz, Paso Doble
Voting Number: 1.800.VOTE4.11
Hines and Kym – Argentine Tango and Salsa
Voting Number: 1.800.VOTE4.03
And of course, all three teams are participating in that Cha Cha Bonus dance. From everything I’ve read on twitter and heard from the pros and celebs, the first place and fourth place teams at the end of the individual dances will compete and the 2nd and 3rd place teams will compete. The winners of those legs will face off. The over all winner gets 15 points. One of my previous posts explains why this is a travesty – unless fans of the other couples vote like CRAZY (and I mean, crazy) their favorite stands a one-in-three chance of going home. The point margin is likely to be impossible to overcome, unless the winner was a serious low scorer on the individual round – and even then they will be extremely tough to beat. This is equivalent to letting the judges decide one of the 3 couples in the finale – the people will have no say unless they can really step it up in terms of voting. I keep praying I’m wrong. I would have more respect if they just stood up and said “You know what? We’re going to let the judges pick one couple for the finale.” That would at least be honest. This? Not so much.
Anyway, I think, of the individual dances, Hines and Ralph will be most challenged with their dances…you know, I don’t even feel like analyzing it very much. Why? Because that 15 points throws everything off. Who ever wins it (Hines or Chelsea) is pretty much guaranteed a spot in the finale – more so Hines than Chelsea. I just don’t get the sense that Chelsea would last beyond this week without it. Now, I could certainly be wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time. Now is the time when lots of people simply vote for the best dancer. Technically, that would be Chelsea. BUT, they also tend to vote for the most pleasing and entertaining couple – and any of the remaining three could be that couple. I think this is the first season where we have three relatively equal people in terms of entertainment/pleasing value and then a fourth couple that is the best in terms of dancing. It’s actually quite strange and I don’t think I can predict what will happen. If the bonus dance wasn’t a factor, my guess is that Chelsea would go home and my second choice, believe it or not, would be Hines – I think perhaps he peaked too early. BUT, Kirstie, Ralph and Hines all have, I would guess, sizable fanbases.
I am very conflicted. I think either Hines or Chelsea will win the bonus dance. I think if Hines wins it he is definitely in the finale. I think if Chelsea wins it, the fans of the other three have a shot, but ultimately Chelsea will stick around. If Chelsea doesn’t win the 15 points, I think she stands a good chance of going home. Beyond that? I got nuthin.