UPDATE: I have changed Elisabetta’s occupation from Model to Actress… note how this changes the rankings.
Hello All! Marianya here… as always every season I try to predict via a series of really complex calculations, statistics, analysis and sometimes gut instinct who will be eliminated, when through the upcoming season of Dancing With the Stars. Sometimes I’m right on point, other times I’m way off base.
Since we won’t officially know celebrity/professional partner pairings until tomorrow (Wednesday) I figure let’s see how the celebrities stand at the moment.
Now if you recall from previous season I use three main factors in calculating placement for the celebrities:
1) Age – probably not too surprising, age plays a role in how a celebrity does on the dance floor. On average the younger celebrities do far better than their elders. Once in a while this may not be the case… for example those in their Teens, 20s, and 30s dominate the placements, but instead of being followed by celebs in their 40s, it is the celebs in their 60s that do well followed by 40s, 70s, 50s and finally 80s.
2) Occupation – believe it or not, what the celeb is primarily known for (aka their primary occupation) plays a factor in their dancing capability. It is a known belief that athletes tend fare far better than comedians, actors/actresses, reality stars, etc… But I break the fields down even further to Olympians, those from the NBA or NFL, boxers and any other athletes that do not fit any of the previous categories. I also separate Actor from Actress, Reality TV Stars get their own category.
3) Professional Partner – this is theoretically suppose to reflect the varying teaching styles of the professional dancers. Granted with a poor student a professional dancer’s teaching style could only go so far, but I think considering all the other varying circumstances of the other categories, this would also be a prime factor to account for.
I will include my own opinion on the matter… but the ranking system is all mathematically based… granted how I break the celebs down is primarily subjective and as thus comments are more than welcome if you believe that there is a better way to describe a particular celebrity.
More beyond the break
Rank sans Pro: 12
Analysis: The reason I placed Nancy’s occupation as “other” is that before becoming a television host, she was a prosecutor, journalist and other occupations. Those in their 50s have not fared well on the show, and I really don’t see her bucking that trend anytime soon.
Rank sans Pro: 11
Analysis: Same as Nancy, Chaz isn’t really known for much more than being a spokesman in the transgender community and being the only child of Sonny and Cher. Since Dancing With the Stars is not only a dance competition, but a popularity contest as well, I do not really see him lasting all that long in the season as well.
Rank sans Pro: 9
Analysis: Carson and Ricki I’m very apprehensive in placing, since without a professional partner to break the tie they are essentially… tied…
Rank sans Pro: 9
Analysis: … But I am going to have Carson leave before Ricki because I believe more people know of Ricki over Carson… I could be wrong.
Occupation: Reality TV
Rank sans Pro: 7
Analysis: It probably comes as no surprise that Reality Show Stars don’t really fare well on this show. Granted they tend to fare better than hosts or other tv personalities, but still. Kristin and Rob are tied in that respect…
Occupation: Reality TV
Rank sans Pro: 7
Analysis: … But based on the first impressions from the Big Reveal, I liked Rob a little more than Kristin… let’s see how long that lasts.
Rank sans Pro: 6
Analysis: Now we’re getting into the athletes of the season. NBA players tend to fare the worst out of all other athletics types (NFL, Olympian, NBA, Boxers, and Athletes)
Rank sans Pro: 5
Analysis: Models are very pretty to look at, and they are amazing in some of the costumes they wear, but as graceful as they seem to portray, unless they are able to just walk and pose they typically don’t get very far in the competition.
Analysis ADJUSTMENT: Actresses have the background to reflect the emotion of the dance via their expressions and to a lesser extent how they move onto the floor. Beyond that actresses are not necessarily used to a high energy workout day despite working long hours themselves in their profession. How they can cope with the vigorous dance rehearsal schedules and pick up choreography will be factors to watch out for
Rank sans Pro: 4
Analysis: Thus why Hope is placed higher than Ron Artest.
Rank sans Pro: 3
Analysis: To be honest, I was quite shocked by this placement. Granted one being in their 30s (even if it’s in the waning of their 30s) they are in a prime age group that they could still move about without too much trouble. But actors don’t usually fare well in this competition, then I realized that most of the primary “ringers” are not included in this cast, thus why the Actors category suddenly have a chance in a season where they probably wouldn’t in past seasons.
Occupation: Band Member
Rank sans Pro: 2
Analysis: With a similar reasoning, for some reason celebs in their 40s don’t usually fare well. But Chynna is in a “band” persay which could help her case a bit.
Rank sans Pro: 1
Analysis: Even without the numbers I think JR would be the heart-favored favorite this season. However, this post is about the numbers, and in this case the numbers don’t lie. Similar to David Arquette with a lack of the usual “ringer” groups this season Actors as a whole may have more of an advantage than most. Add to that JR’s youth (those in their 20s are prone to do rather well in this competition) I could see him being the heavy favorite to win.
And there you have it… my predictions sans the professional partner. Stay tuned for Thursday or Friday where I will add in the factor of their professional partner and then we will really get to see how much that would affect the celebs for the season.