DWTS Season 13 Stats – Pre Season Eliminations Predictions (Now With Pros!)
UPDATE: After a little more research, I will agree that Elisabetta’s primary occupation is as an actress as opposed to model… I have adjusted her ranks (with and without pro) to reflect this… note how this changes the other rankings as well.
YAY! Now we have the official celebrity/professional partner pairings. Let’s see how the ranks change now that we know how the pairings paired out. (Pun totally intended) If you need your memories refreshed, here is how the rankings panned out without knowing who would be paired up with whom.
NOTE: We have three new professional dancers this go around, so their placement value is based on all the past professional dancers that have only been on the show ONCE in the past twelve seasons (including Inna Brayer, Fabian Sanchez, Charlotte Jorgensen, Damian Whitewood, Brian Fortuna, etc). The placement value is separated between the male and female professional dance partners. As a whole the male professional partners that have been on the show once tend to do better than their female counterparts.
More after the break…
Nancy Grace
Age: 51
Occupation: Other
Professional Partner: Tristan MacManus
Rank sans Pro: 12
Rank w/ Pro: 12
Analysis: So there doesn’t seem to be much change with this placement. Tristan is relatively new to viewers (despite being in the DWTS Troupe last season). Could they move up the ranks? Sure, but I don’t personally see how, quite yet.
Chaz Bono
Age: 42
Occupation: Other
Professional Partner: Lacey Schwimmer
Rank sans Pro: 11
Rank w/ Pro: 10
Analysis: Lacey, I find, to be a very polarizing character, which subsequently would either hurt or help her celebrity. There isn’t much known about Chaz, so seeing how this partnership fares would be something worth seeing.
Carson Kressley
Age: 41
Occupation: Host
Professional Partner: Anna Trebunskaya
Rank sans Pro: 9
Rank w/ Pro: 10
Analysis: Anna has proven to be a rather strong professional partner, and without knowing much of Carson and his background I say this placement can be considered as rather realistic.
Ron Artest
Age: 31
Occupation: NBA
Professional Partner: Peta Murgatroyd
Rank sans Pro: 6
Rank w/ Pro: 9
Analysis: No doubt that athletes as a general group tend to do well on DWTS, however, break it down and NBA players tend to have the most difficult time with dancing. Why? Who knows, it could be because of height, the concept of standing up tall vs crouched, etc. Pair that with the fact that Peta is a reasonably new professional partner and this pairing may or may not work.
Elisabetta Canalis
Age: 32
Occupation: ACTRESS Model
Professional Partner: Val Chmerkovskiy
Rank sans Pro: 5
Rank w/ Pro: 8
Analysis: Unfortunately Elisabetta was already cursed with the model occupation, based on the numbers, and Val is also a newcomer to the scene, though he may already have a following coming into the show, which could help Elisabetta in the grand scheme of things, but at the moment… based on the numbers, she’ll be the second to leave.
Analysis ADJUSTMENT: Now that I’ve researched and realized that Elisabetta is an actress and NOT a model, she rose up the rankings quite a bit. Granted with a new pro she still might not make it past the halfway mark, but only time can tell in that regards.
Chynna Phillips
Age: 40s
Occupation: Band Member
Professional Partner: Tony Dovolani
Rank sans Pro: 2
Rank w/ Pro: 7
Analysis: Tony has had a bit of an up and down track record when it comes to partners. Sometimes he’s really strong, sometimes he’s really weak, sometimes he’s in the middle of the pack… or sometimes he just gets lucky. I place Chynna in the “band member” group which includes the likes of 98 Degrees, Spice Girls, etc… because she’s technically in a band, but I’m not entirely sure…
Ricki Lake
Age: 42
Occupation: Host
Professional Partner: Derek Hough
Rank sans Pro: 9
Rank w/ Pro: 6
Analysis: This is a situation where whom the celebrity gets paired up with makes all the difference. Derek has one of the best track records with his partner and I don’t foreseeing him NOT making it past the halfway point. With any other partner, Ricki might not do as well, but with Derek? She is definitely getting up there.
Hope Solo
Age: 30
Occupation: Athlete
Professional Partner: Maksim Chmerkovskiy
Rank sans Pro: 4
Rank w/ Pro: 5
Analysis: Yay! Maksim get’s an athlete… similar to Misty May. She’s bound to be hard working and can handle the crazy rehearsals, but being an athlete isn’t always enough to do well in this competition. Maksim is also a bit all over the map when it comes to partners, but with the athletes he has worked with, he has done rather well.
Kristin Cavallari
Age: 24
Occupation: Reality TV
Professional Partner: Mark Ballas
Rank sans Pro: 7
Rank w/ Pro: 4
Analysis: Mark is slightly getting better in the rankings, but I think that’s more out of luck than skill, especially since he has had several ringers thus far. Though I don’t consider Kristin to be a ringer, so I think this placement is rather higher. But hey, it’d be interesting to see what happens.
Rob Kardashian
Age: 24
Occupation: Reality TV
Professional Partner: Cheryl Burke
Rank sans Pro: 7
Rank w/ Pro: 3
Analysis: Rob’s chances of doing well in this competition sky-rocketed the moment it was revealed that he got Cheryl as a partner. She is a fabulous teacher and a great support no matter the celeb. I really don’t think he’d go as high as the numbers are saying, but I would be more than willing to see him reach the halfway point.
David Arquette
Age: 39
Occupation: Actor
Professional Partner: Kym Johnson
Rank sans Pro: 3
Rank w/ Pro: 2
Analysis: No surprise here. David will probably have a little bit of a fan base coming in, Kym just adds into that. He already seems charming enough on television, I’ll be excited to see this grow…
JR Martinez
Age: 28
Occupation: Actor
Professional Partner: Karina Smirnoff
Rank sans Pro: 1
Rank w/ Pro: 1
Analysis: I have always believes that Karina is due a chance to win the mirrorball trophy. If JR could prove himself on the dance floor I believe she stands a chance. JR has the story, the determination, and I believe the chops to make it far in this competition and I firmly believe that Karina is the right teacher for him to succeed.
And there you have it, the pre-season elimination predictions as calculated by yours truly. It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out as the season unfolds.
Feel free to leave your comments and agree or disagree with the choices, but let me warn you now, during the infamous Season 11 where Bristol Palin made it to the top three…. my numbers actually predicted that preseason. Of course in Season 12, I was extremely off in some cases, and close to on target with others. So sometimes the numbers do lie, but it doesn’t make it any less fun to try to figure things out, does it?
I enjoy reading your analysis. I agree with your JR rank but you place Rob, Kristen and Chynna way higher than I would have. Rob in the top 3? I have him pegged as one of the first to go! lol. I definitely can’t see him or Kristen outlasting Ricki Lake who is much more demo friendly and has Derek to boot. I would put Chynna more in the Belinda Carlisle category than with Spice Girls or 98 degrees.
I enjoy reading your analysis as well. I have to say I agree with some of the rankings here. I do think Rob, Kristin, and Chynna were place higher than I would have. With Kristin, not only am I getting the feeling of Audrina, but some are still upset with the attitude Mark placed last season. Rob may have Cheryl, but somehow I’m not seeing him last past the half way point. I would not put Chynna in the same category as Spice Girls or 98 degrees. She may be decent and as much as I don’t mind Tony, I’m not seeing any “wow” factor from these two. I agree that Ricki will most likely last past the half way point thanks to her being partner with Derek and her being well known. I think as the weeks go, she will improve and with Derek’s fan base I think they have a shot to go most of the season.
Really enjoyed your analysis Marianya! Great points! I loved seeing how the pros changed the order. Time will tell if you are right. I agree with Jen, though – Rob K. in the final??? Nope!
Correct me if I’m wrong, Maryanna, but what you’ve done is pretty much ‘by the numbers’ with little or no personal opinion used in the equation, yes? Based on previous seasons’ data on age, occupation, where their partner finished in the previous seasons and the like, correct?
I think it’s fascinating!
I think how they actually finish depends HEAVILY on how well Ricki, Hope, David and Rob actually DANCE. If all four of these people dance really well, they will be the final four. IF they only dance moderately well and Kristen dances very well AND is likeable, then she will replace one of them.
Those celebs with new pros are pretty handicapped – they have to not only be good dancers, but be VERY likeable to last. Val is in big trouble and causes trouble for Maks as well. If they both make it past the halfway point, neither will win. Why? Because I don’t think many Maks fans realize that you can’t vote for both Chmerkovskiy’s and have them both do well. You have to PICK ONE. Unless of course, both Hope and Elizabetta are charming rays of sunshine. 🙂 Failure to pick one Chmerkovski going into week 5 or 6 could lead to a shocking elimination. I had to beat this into Mark/Derek fans for a long, long time.
This season is a tough call – Derek could leave early for the first time ever, or he could win MBT #4. Karina could finally win. Maks – will probably get 3rd place again. I kinda see Kristen pulling an Audrina. But really, it’s a toss up. I’m just glad Derek’s back, even if he leaves in week 3. It’s better than not seeing him at all.
I love the Stats!
Has a top 3 male celeb standing happened before? I love your stats and the explanations just round it all out. I agree with most almost every stat. I think Rob will go far, the tweenies will love him. David is just uber charming, was never a fan, but I already am, that combined with Kyms likeability and awesome boobage make a HOT pair. And JR, OMG Karina so deserves this, and so does America, his story will never be forgotten…. *tears in eyes every time I speak of him* I cant wait to to have the honor of taking part in their journey….
Well if it can’t be Derek, I’d love to see Karina win. She made me a fan last season. Based on pros, I’d like to see Derek, Karina, Kym and Anna in the final four. Dream on, I know!?!
Hope your wrong on one account, Id like Canalis to stay for atleast a few more weeks
You think Rob will go far?? Kim K is way more popular than he is, so unless he can dance very well….I dunno. Kim K was also partnered with one of the “popular” pros. I would argue that Cheryl has more wattage than Mark , particularly right now, but I think Kim K would balance that out.
I think people seriously over estimate the fanbases of those “reality” stars on off networks like E! and MTV – the age groups who watch those shows don’t really vote OR watch DWTS. In order for them to go far, they have to dance really well. See Audrina, who was a good dancer, from the same show as Kristen.
I keep having my flashback to Kyle… I was certain he would be one of the first to go…. Based on not knowing who he was and his pro Lacey…..However, after Week 1 I was hooked, so alot does depend on the likeability factor and chemistry of the pairings….
Yeah, but Kyle was a good dancer and very likable. From following Rob on twitter and seeing him the other night, I doubt the same will be true for him. But, you never know.
Good Point Heidi… His personality certainly didnt shine the other night. As long as Mark does not make the finals, I’m good…
I am not so sure Ricki can pull it off but as long as we have Derek eye-candy to gaze at, I’m happy, but I would also be thrilled if Karina finally won!
This is a cool post but I think Chynna will make it longer than half way, Nancy won’t be the first to go or atleast I really doubt it ” Kate Gosselin anyone? “. I think Ricki should be higher, Rob should be LOWER, Chaz should be lower, and Jr should be lower. That’s just me though, thanks for the numbers though!! 😀 I think the pros play a big part but if a celebrity is likeable and a good dancer if you have say Tony as compared to like Mark that celeb should still do well. Plus the only seasons Tony is ” weak ” is when he has NOTHING to work with ” Kate, Wendy, Kathy, “. Every other season he’s done well and he has quite a few fans. In every other season besides 9, 10, and 12 he’s done good. Really he didn’t finish “bad ” in seson 10, infact bringing Kate to produce her Tango reasonably well for her on the week where she was most zoned out and not ready to learn raises my opinion of him in how he talked with her got her in the right state of mind then did a good dance for her, now im rambling :). My opinion probably will fall of him if Chynna doesn’t do well because she has most everything it will take but for now I dont think having Tony is at all a handy-cap.
Ofcourse I know numbers rarley lie, Marianya. So thank you very much. 🙂
I think Derek will leave early around week 6 or 7. I’m hoping his fans will keep him until the semis because I missed him dearly!
I agree with JR Martinez winning and that’s great for Karina. I’ve grown to like her and her choreography.
I’m hoping Carson and Anna will stick around at least until week 6. He’s hilarious and I’m hoping he can dance!
I’m not a fan of David Arquette but he has a great partner so I can see him going to the finals
Not sure about the rest of the field but ill be watching the first show and if there’s quality dancing ill tune in.
@Marianya- Elisabetta is not a model. She is an Italian actress. She was on Striscia la Notizia for 3 years and is currently on Leverage here in America. I would rank her a little higher based on that fact(and the fact that ABC isn’t calling her this season’s model. she falls more in the same catagory as Giles did during his season, “Foreign actress/actor who works both in home country and America.”.)
JR Martinez in the top 3? Maybe. But I really don’t see Rob Kardashian making it to the top 3. I say he’ll be gone in the first 3 weeks. My top 3 are: David Arquette, Ricki Lake and Hope Solo.
Heh – I don’t call week 6 or 7 “early” at all….of course that would be early for *Derek*. 🙂
Do people forget that Elisabetta can dance?
My top five in no particular order
Ricki – coz she has Derek . She asked for him and she got him. Keep an eye on the chosen one y’all
Elisabetta – coz she is the ringer this season. I saw a clip of her dancing. She gives good face ( worthy of a 10 from Bruno)
Kristin- coz I like her
Chynna- just coz I don’t care about the rest
Now the rest
I expect Hope to be overhyped. …
I expect Ron to stay longer than he should
This is interesting! Thanks Marianya. I can’t wait to see how the season develops and shakes out in the end. I know these rankings are based on paper… but who knew that Kirstie would end up taking 2nd last season or that Bristol and Kyle would be in the top 3 the season before. That’s part of the fun of the show because it is a popularity contest and not just based on the dancing. I do think JR will be the dark horse and end up placing high (top 5). I don’t think Rob will last that long because he isn’t even appealing on his own reality show. He may or may not last longer than his sister. Kristen will probably be Top 6 (like Audrina), she just doesn’t seem to have a strong personality or backstory that some of the others do. I think David will last because he has a huge personality and has Kym. I think Ricki will last because she also has a huge personality and name recognition, plus she has Derek. I think she might also be more relatable because of her weight issues (a la Kirstie) to the average DWTS viewer. I think Hope will last if she’s been bluffing and can really walk in heels… lol!
Like everyone else, I love the stats, Marianya! One quick question: I notice that David Arquette turns 40 on Sept. 8. Would your stats run have any difference with him being “in his 40’s” as opposed to his 30’s?
Pretty sure that I said Kirstie would go a long ways last season. I’ll have to go back and look.
I agree that Chynna, Rob and Kristin are ranked too high. chynna is more Belinda. Wilson Phillips in the same category as Spice Girls is like putting En Vogue with the Spice Girls. They sang pop but were not a girl group. They were known for their voices and snging. They did not dance or do any choreography in their videos. Rob is only doing this because his mom wants her 10 %. if he lasts longer than Kim, it will all be due to Cheryl. I also think reality star fan bases are overestimated. They have a lot of followers on twitter more due to curiosity or to be real, they do not like them. Kinda laughing at them. Kristin has more personality than Audrina, but her valley girl accent is not going to win over some. But I think she will look good enough in costumes and stick around because there is other fodder. Mark could use some humble pie. On twitter, he is throwing that Emmy nomination out as some validation. Um, Mark, you are cheesy, Gorilla costume? Your sparkly socks? If he showed some humility he would be easier to tolerate. Maks at least has humor and can laugh at himself. I do not think Mark can and at defensiveness made him and Chelsea a difficult pair to cheer for last season. I think some of that dislike will be there for viewers again this year.
I think Hope will finish higher than Kristin. Ricki will make it half way but will be an early exit by Derek standards. Who knows though because she is pretty well known by the show’s demo. I also think
That was 4, Maddy. Does Elisabetta count as 2 people since she’s such an awesome dancer?
Computer posted it before I finished.
Karina might have a winner and I would be happy for her. I think JR has an arm injury. I read he cannot fully rotate or something but hopefully they can work through it. I feel his story and if he can dance would be a great winner.
My thoughts on Nancy is that she wants an image make over. Smilar to Kristin who has still not made it as a star or actress after she was the It girl on Laguna years ago. I think both want to look good so will be on their best behavior. Nancy us polarizing so it will buy her some weeks.
Lastly, I like David Arquette and Ron. Both seem to have such a good attitude about the show. I hope those two and JR and Ricki are in the final four. I think a guy will win this season. Hope is winning me over so far and Ricki I liked but not that interested on the female celebs. chynna is great but seems a bit too quiet and may not be as entertaining. On the guy side, like all but Rob.
Off topic, but Courtney, Donnie said on twitter he would do the show maybe when he is fifty. Though if he did participate this season, he would have won it easily. I think. But he needs some ten minutes not working, lol.
So if week 6 or 7 is an early exit, then does that mean Shannon Elizabeth was a dud? Come on folks!
Interesting analysis. I would LOVE to see Karina win, I’m really eager to see them all dance, as well as their personalities on the show.
@Teresa: I’ll go back to verify and make the changes accordingly.
Note to everyone… These rankings DO NOT reflect my opinion whatsoever, they reflect the numbered averages as run via the calculations I used. If you guys really want me to I could run another post that includes my personal opinion but that would kind of defeat the purpose.
Also these rankings do not reflect any dance background that any celebrity may come prepackaged with. I decided that was just too many variables to keep track of. The ‘occupation’ category is supposed to reflect the occupation any one celebrity is the most ‘known’ in… Ricki Lake was on broadway but a vast majority of the general office would know her from her talk show instead.
Hope this clears some thiings up for you!
I’d like to see Cheryl have a stronger season. Maybe, she can bring this young man along. It’s hard to discount Kym-2 MBTs and 1 in Australia, I believe. Would love to see Kristin and Elisabetta last a while, LOL. I think Hope will be like that swimmer. I liked her, but some people just have more charisma than others, whatever the reason, a la Kristi Yamaguchi-incredible talent, work ethic and charisma.
Marianya, once again…good job with another numbers post! It’s going to be so interesting to see how this competiton plays out. Right now, I’m thinking Rob Kardashian (unless he’s a super good dancer) is going out early. My picks for the top 5 at this time are David, JR, Ricki, Elisabetta, and Kristin. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Nancy hangs in there like Kirstie did. I’m so excited. I really love all of these contestants and hope they all do well.
Oops. Thanks, Maryanya, for the analysis and all the pre-season work by the staff. I like that the writers don’t rush to judgment, but take some time to give their opinion.
Melissa: Donnie who??? 🙂
With all the talk about vegas odds and stats, TVLine put out an article on their odds and chances. At the end of the article, you can vote for your favorite pair. Top three pairs with most votes on their poll are Hope, Ricki, and David. The least is Ron and Elisabetta.
http://www.tvline.com/2011/08/dancing-with-the-stars-dwts-season-13-couples-odds/
Early for Derek, Nathan. Week 6 or 7 by anyone else’s standards is just fine. Fact is, Shannon was 6th place and that’s Derek’s lowest placement in 7 seasons. If Derek makes it to the semi-finals this season, it will be hard for any pro to beat him in terms of numbers – but by the same token, going by odds, he’s rather due for an “early for Derek” exit. 🙂 I doubt very much that he’s as concerned about it as his fans are. 😉 If he wants to make a move to the big screen, I’ll get more sleep. 🙂
Well, Cheryl has two MBTs also, Bruce. If my boy can’t win, I’d much rather Karina or Maks win – and it would be HILARIOUS if Val won. I would die.
You mean you would die … laughing, Heidi??? 🙂
Wow val winning. That would be funny. Maks might have mixed feelings. Hehe
Seriously??? Why doesn’t anyone like Bristol??? I wasn’t part of the large group of Alaskans that voted for her, but I think she deserved her spot in the finals. Yes, Brandy was a better dancer, but Bristol improved more and worked very hard, and earned her 3rd place. I honestly didn’t really like Brandy(race has nothing to do with it) she was the person who I didn’t like, but I didn’t know why I didn’t like her. I predicted Bristol vs. Brandy and Bristol winning. And, I’m glad Bristol won. It gave Kyle a better shot at winning. If Brandy made it to the finals, Kyle wouldve cone in third instead of second
i am going to take a stab at this too (probably am going to be wrong but I don’t care lol)
winner: david and kym (I ahve a feeling he is going to be really really really really really good and him and Kym are going to have GREAT chemistry).
2nd place/runner up: Ricki and Derek (I would place them in the #1 spot but I think that David’s going to be more fun to watch BUT I think she is going to be really good when it comes to the audience since she has experience w live audiences. )
3rd: Hope and Maks (Maks + athlete = good odds of making finals)
4th: J.R. and Karina (American hero and inspirational story…….PLUS great persoanlity and Karina. I’m only putting him 4th since I think Hope is bringing in the soccer votes)
5th: Kristin and Mark (jsut based on the fact tis Mark and she was on one of MTV’s most popular shows ever I’m guessing 5th place is good placement unless she is reallly really good or really really bad lol)
6th: Carson and Anna (I think he and Anna are going to be great but as much as I hate to say it but I think that if he isn’t great he is going to get lost i nthe middle of the pack)
7th: Rob and Cheryl (just based on Kardashain popularity lol when Kim was one she wasn’t as famous and now her entire family is thats prob gonna keep him around for a while)
8th: Val and Elizabetha (I want him to do good but models don’t have a great track record outside of Kelly Monaco, Brooke, and Petra.)
9th: Chyna and Tony (She seems nice but maybe she will surprise me and be a great dancer too)
10th:Ron and Peta (he seems like the basketball version of chad ochocinco…..I’m on the fence about this one)
11th : Nancy and Tristan (want her to prove me wrong though…….she seems like such a nice lady that loves what she does fr a living and I really hope her happy side shows.
12th: Lacey and Chazz (I just have a bad feeling he is going week one and despite the fact that I think he seems like an ice guy and really think that people should do/be whatever makes them happy it seems like a lot of people disagree……I still can’t beleive that ABC is getting fack for casting him……people need to see that he is jsut a regular person but saying that odds aren’t looking good for him sadly 🙁 ).
* a nice guy
Lastly,since they are making major changes are they keeping the “celebaquarium” or is that going too?
Yes, die laughing. I would literally be rolling on my damn floor shrieking, most likely. 🙂 Maks – 10 seasons, some good to great partners, no win. Val – 1 season, one good but unknown partner, one win. I mean, come on – it’s hilarious. 🙂
@Dwtsfreak: I personally liked Bristol in the past when she was on the show but fair is fair and while she was good she did not deserve a finals spot. That should have been Brandy’s spot. I also am glad she did not win since she said some nasty things about the show in her book.
Vin- Elisabetta is not primarily a model. She’s an actress. As I think someone previously stated, I would compare her to Gilles (sp?) in terms if occupation.
I would definitely put Ricki & David as top two at this point. At third Nancy or Elisabetta or Hope. I can’t decide. Obviously it’ll be easier to an extent to make guesses once we’ve seen them dance. I think for Elisabetta to go far both she & Val need to amp up their personalities & she needs to dance well.
I’m torn between Chaz & Ron for going home first.
Ok people! I’ve updated the post to reflect Elisabetta’s TRUE occupation, thank you to everyone for letting me know.
Comment away!
@Allie: I almost put Ron as going home first actually . he reminds me too much of Ochocinco.
@Vin- Yeah he does a bit. At this point he doesn’t seem to be that into it. I thought his & Peta’s TMZ interview was telling. He didn’t even know some stuff which I would blame on her. I really think he or Chaz will be the first to go. However, Chaz is a wildcard. He doesn’t have much of a fanbase coupled with controversy surrounding him could spell disaster. However, if he comes out week 1 dancing well with a good entertaining package, I’d say he’ll be good.
I think out of the 3 stars with new pros I’d say Ron & Peta have a bigger risk. Tristan is cute & has an Irish accent & I can see him being popular. Val is also good looking & I think being Maks’ little bro might help him some.
I definately want Chazz to do really good so )in lack of a better phrase) shut the haters up. I would imagine he might be a good dancer since afetr all he is Sonny and Cher’s child and like my mother said the night of the announcement “Entertainment has to run in that family”. Val and Thristan have two major things oging for them: likeability and personality. Both have likeability and persoanlity to spare. With Peta, all I really know is she can dance, is in shape ,and has an amzing smile (my mom said that she is the female equivlant of Tony with the smile lol). I just hope that brining in Val as a pro doesn’t mean that Maks is going to leave soon/after this season. i can just imagine what Tom Bergeron is going to have to deal with since there are two Chmerkovskiys lol
I also remember that Val was on a couple of seasons ago in a special performance with Mark where they both danced and Val played violin or something while Mark played guitar. They have a rivalry if I remeber correctly. This might take Mark’s competitiveness up a couple of more notches.
Okay, I will add my predictions for ranking. I have a poor track record at this, but it is fun anyways! And I will revise after watching the first episode:
Rank 11th: Rob / Cheryl – I don’t know who the hell this guy is, other than that he is related to the Kardashians, who I am also barely aware of. And Cheryl used to be great, but has not been ranking well the last couple of years. I would bet a nickel that these two are the first to go home.
Rank 11th: Chynna / Tony: Do people still care about Chynna? I’m ambivalent myself, and I can’t imagine this partnership working on the dance floor.
Rank 10th: Chaz / Lacey: I put Chaz this low even before I heard about the haters. He seems fat and lacking stamina, but sometimes looks are deceptive about how agile a person can be.
Rank 9th: Nancy / Tristan: People either LOVE or HATE her, so I see her sticking around this long, sort of like Kate Gosselin but hopefully with a better attitude.
Rank 8th: Carson / Anna T – Anna doesn’t usually rank well so I will be pleasantly surprised if she stays longer than this.
Rank 7th: Ron / Peta – My understanding is that he is a divisive figure in the BBall world.
Rank 6th: Kristin / Mark – ?? She’s young so hopefully she has the energy to keep up with Mark.
Rank 5th: JR / Karina – Karina generally has eye-catching choreography, and JR has an amazingly sympathetic story. He is a complete wild card until after we see him dance the first time. If he is skilled, he could get 3rd place, but if not he could go home much sooner. This prediction is based on the assumption that he is not the worst dancer on the show.
Rank 4th: Elizabetta / Val — ?? No comment. This is probably wrong.
Rank 3rd: David / Kym – I was flabbergasted at the water cooler to find out how many of my coworkers were intent on voting for David, and Kym is one of the better pros.
Rank 2nd: Ricki / Derek – People like her acting career, and while her talk show was popular I do not believe it is fondly remembered, and will probably work against her. Derek is the tops but with Ricki as a partner I do not think he will win this season. Possibly a 3rd place but I can’t picture a couple gaining more ground than him or Maks.
Rank 1st: Hope / Maks – He can go far with an athelete, and he is due a trophy! I’m betting a nickel on this ranking as well.
We have to remember Hope Solo claimed she couldn’t dance to save her life. Maks is a good teacher but not as great a choreographer as Derek is.
If Derek makes it to the semi-finals with Ricki, there is no stopping them. So Heidi I agree with your rankings. We all must remember we haven’t seen anyone dance as of yet. I think after the first few times we see everyone we will have a pretty good idea!
But lets all expect them all to be a little stiff the first few times!
No way am I going predict how this season will turn out. I’m just going to watch and enjoy since I can’t split votes. Too much speculation and running numbers spoils the show for me, so I’ll leave you seasoned folks to it. I’ll wait til I see them all dance.
I think that was a faux rivalry, Vin. I could be wrong, but I doubt it’s anything serious.
MY rankings?? I haven’t ranked anyone and I don’t intend to. I go by the numbers once they start dancing. Everything else is just chatting.
I know this is the stupidest question ever, but how do you post forums on a mobile device? I figured out comments, but I wanna post a forum it blog or whatever you call it. Do I have to do it on my laptop?
This is so much fun – can’t wait for the first rehearsal videos 🙂 Here are my 12 cents:
11/12. Rob & Cheryl tied with Ron & Peta
Ron does not seem into this much at all + new Pro = ?? I’ll be surprised if he can dance. Rob – who the hell is Rob? Not sure his fan base is the DWTS viewing or voting kind. He’s young, but he better be able to dance like crazy because I wasn’t too impressed with his press conference. I think he’ll initially be resistant to the “rules of dancing”, like Romeo was, but won’t have the charm to keep him on the show long enough to grow.
9/10. Chaz & Lacey tied with Hope & Maks
I’m hoping for better for Chaz, and maybe people will get behind him to encourage him (and yes, show the naysayers whatfor!), but he does look very out of shape, and how comfortable will he really be when the night comes? He might surprise us (fingers crossed) – I would love for him to really nail his first dance, ala Kelly Osbourne. Hope could very well go the way of Natalie Caughman (the Olympic swimmer who danced with Alec) – beautiful and precise, but awkward with the character of the dance. Not sure she’s going to connect to the audience.
7/8. Nancy & Tristan tied with Chynna & Tony
Nancy is going to be a little spitfire and her partnership w/Tristan is infectious. And I think her fan base is the right demographic and you know they’re all gonna vote! And I think she’ll dance reasonably well (think Niecy Nash with a law degree). Chynna, I think is going to be a capable dancer, but I’m not sure Tony is going to be able to get her to let loose. She seems shy/inhibited and may do well w/ballroom, but maybe not latin. But a large percentage of the voting viewers remember either through her parents or her own career.
5/6. Kristin & Mark tied with Elizabetta & Val
Kristin will look beautiful and dance reasonably well, but not sure she’s got the voting power to be around for the semis. Same with Elizabetta – while Gilles and Cristian did well, she doesn’t appear to have the charming personality those 2 guys have. I have a feeling she’s going to be a good dancer, not sure she can garner the votes though. She seems to be comfortable in her skin, and comfortable moving her body – and she and Val are going to sizzle, so who knows?
3/4. JR & Karina tied with Carson & Anna
JR is going to a capable dancer, I have a feeling. And we’re going to see the softer sweeter side of Karina again, so watch out 😉 His voting fan base is going to be through the roof. Unless he absolutely cannot move, he’s in the semis. Carson is a wild card for me …he could end up in the finals, he could be one of the first voted off. If he plays it straight (no pun intended) and truly gives himself over to each dance – technique & character, I think this pair will go far. If he plays up the comedy angle (remember Jeffrey Ross) this could be disaster. IDK though, I have a feeling he’ll be in the last half standing for sure.
1/2. Ricki & Derek tied with David & Kym.
Ricki is hungry for this, you can just tell. She’s comfortable in front of a live audience, she’s got Broadway experience so she’ll be able to embrace the character of the dance, and she’s got Derek. David Arquette is fearless, and he’s motivated, and he’s got all the time in the world to commit to this. Again, if he can focus on the task at hand and not let his goofball take over, he can go far in this with Kym. Or he could be another David Hasselhoff (oh horrors!)
All this, and yet to see their DWTS photos or see them rehearse or dance. Ooh boy, I may have to eat some of these words in a few weeks. Oh well, they taste pretty good with a nice Pinto Grigio 🙂
Umm, I think the top two will be JR and Hope. I’m voting for both, and I really don’t care who wins. I really really want Maks to win, but I want JR to win too. I know we will se a softer side of Karina. I have a team name for hope and Maks
HopeMaksWins!!!!!
LOL, Dwstfreak, that team name is too funny :))
Well it’s true, I hope maks wins. And it works, her name is Hope, his name is Maks, and they win a third of my votes.
Ok, so Kristin just tweeted something about a USWeekly poll. She got the most votes from the public on who would win and a surprising second was Elisabetta. Now I know it’s not scientific or anything (far from it really) but I honestly wouldn’t count Elisabetta out. I have a feeling she could be a dark horse but of course my opinion will change once I see them dancing.
I wish Sept. 19th would just hurry up and get here already! lol!
Hmm Chynna didn’t rub me as shy AT ALL, Linde. Esspecialy when she said ” Oh yeah im taking home the mirror “.
I’ve read many comments on different site that think Kristin is the second coming of Audrina=no fan base and b*itchy diva personality…..hmm? Don’t know…Mark is over the moon thrilled with her “quickly picking it up” & she looked great in the pic he tweeted of their pose. She has bigger fan base than Audrina and has Mark instead of Tony, plus Mark still carries Bristol voters, Kane voters, and dare I say…..adoring Pia fans that may now tune in to see her BF dance, esp if they continually show her on tv in the audience like the end of last season.
Here’s what KCav tweeted:
UsWeekly readers voted @KristinCav as most likely to win Season 13 of DWTS! I mean… duhhh! http://twitpic.com/6en2hy
No one commented that Louis V A was passed over this season? But trying new pros is great.
My top 3 prediction before the dancing begins and in no particular order is: Chaz, Hope, David.
I know this is the stupidest thing you’ve ever heard, but how do you post forums/blogs on a mobile
device? Do I have to do it on my laptop? Can I post? Can someone tell me??
http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20524807,00.html
I saw this today and it made me think that if Cgazz is having such a great time in rehersal I can only imagine what he is brining to the dance floor.
Allie, I saw what she tweeted and only four of the contestants were included in the poll. Not exactly a fair reading.
As for the Bristol voters/Kane voters and so on?? None of that worked last season. Hey, she might win…but she’s far from a sure thing.
What are you talking about posting “forum/blogs”, dwtsfreak?? Here?? Here, you can’t. Elsewhere, I have no idea.
I think you are completely underestimating Carson. Did you know he was a member of a World Cup Equine Team? As with the Olympic contenders we’ve seen on DWTS, that speaks volumes to his perseverance and dedication to a sport, and I think that will help him stay in more weeks than the current naysayers are predicting. I also think he is so funny, he will be this season’s outrageous and fun entertainer that no one wants to leave. With Anna’s guidance as his pro, I would rank him higher than Rob Kardashian, who I can’t see lasting more than a couple weeks, unless there are a lot of terrible dancers in this group who keep Rob around.
I really really don’t believe Rob will reach the finals…
Maybe J.R…. I like his life story but can he dance? I’m not sure… need to see some rehearsal videos…
By now, my final 3 are: David, Kristi, Hope.
@carlos – Yes, I agree with you. Especially after reading this: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/31/rob-kardashian-my-mom-forced-me-to-do-dancing-with-the-stars_n_943517.html?ref=mostpopular
Really? He did it because his mommy made him do it? Sounds like someone is REALLY committed to the hard work that will make him a good dancer…. NOT!
@Sally: Thank you for posting that link 🙂 I was telling my firend that Rob was forced and couldn’t find the link in my search history so now I can send it to him.
@vin No worries! Glad I could help.
Ok, my pre-rankings are changing again after seeing and studying the official rehearsal pics;
Before I had David, JR, Ricki, Elisabetta, and Kristin in the top 5. Now I think it will go something like this (not necessarily in this order and not necessarily how I want it to play out): Hope, Kristin, Ricki, Carson, and David with JR, Elisabetta, Ron behind them in the middle. The bottom will be between Chaz, Chynna, Nancy, and Rob K (he’s really looking clumsy in the pics and Cheryl is having a hard time teaching him. I also think the likability factor is going to play an issue with him).
Vogue – where have you seen rehearsal pics of Carson, David, JR, Chaz, Chynna and Nancy? The ABCnet/Getty photo sites don’t have them. Do you have an updated link?
Sorry, I just meant for what we’ve seen so far.
I dont know guys the youth factor almost always pulls through. Rob should be around till atleast half way unless he dances like Master P. Chynna will do well as she’s been predicted. I mean she has everything she needs. She might even fair better than Ricki, the pictures of Ricki aren’t as good as I thought she would be, ofcourse Ill reserve judgement but I think she looks a little ackward. Ron actually looks pretty good to what I saw followed and Kristin but I think the one big person people are underestimating is Chynna Phillips. For sure. 🙂
I hope “CHAZ” aka Chastity goes home early. He/SheAnn, it’s “he”- we have a zero tolerance policy around here and we allow people to self identify. Since you aren’t being completely hateful about it, this is just a warning. Heidi.has neither the grace or the stamina to go very far. However, since last season Kirstie was in second place, I guess anything goes. It would be nice if Tony finally got a break and won the trophy, but I don’t think it will happen. I am predicting that Derek will be in the top three. I don’t know anything about any of the contestants except David Arquette in “Scream” I have heard of Ricki Lake, and I know the Kardasian because of their stupid reality show. This season has one of the worse contestants I think I have ever seen. I will watch as long as Derek is in the picture, after that I will watch reruns