DWTS13 Preliminary Power Rankings, Part II
So we had some good discussion over part I of my rankings, where I predicted the couples who wouldn’t make it past the halfway point of the show. Now let’s move onto the good part, shall we? Here’s the couples I see advancing further in the competition…
6.) Kristin Cavallari & Mark Ballas – Do I think Kristin will be a great dancer this season? No. But I do think she’ll be at least an ok dancer, and having Mark will likely keep her in the competition until at least the midpoint of the season – provided he doesn’t make an ass of himself the way he did last season. He may have gotten away with it because Chelsea was a good dancer and he could rely on some inflated scores from the judges, but I don’t think he’ll have the same safety net with Kristin – she seems like a nice, very pretty girl, but not the same sparkling personality that Chelsea was and likely not as good of a dancer. I think Kristin will be more on-par with a Melissa Joan-Hart or a Shannen Doherty – nice enough, and an ok dancer…but won’t make much of an impact. As for fanbase – we saw how well The Hills/Laguna Beach fanbase came through for Audrina, and I daresay Audrina is probably going to end up being the better dancer of the two…so I don’t think she can rely much on the MTV crowd for an assist. Mark’s fanbase (and some less popular contestants) will probably keep her afloat for a little while, but up against more vibrant, popular couples? I don’t think she’ll have the juice.
5.) Elisabetta Canalis & Val Chmerkovskiy – I doubt they’ll be the best dancing couple this season – but they’ll certainly be the prettiest 🙂 Val certainly lucked into getting a partner who’s quite easy on the eyes (and single!) his first season…I’m already hearing showmance murmurings, which usually piques viewer curiousity and by extension, votes. And while I doubt she’ll be the next coming of Nicole, Elisabetta does seem to have a few moves – or at least isn’t afraid to really get out there and perform; she also seems like a bit less awkward of a mover than most of the models we’ve seen on the show. Now the shortcomings: first off, Elisabetta’s notability in the US is flimsy, at best. She’s best known to most as Clooney’s ex, and maybe as a model – her acting career has definitely got a bigger following in Italy. She’s also retained a pretty thick Italian accent, and her English is a bit broken at times. It may have been cute on Petra, but Petra was also a saint with a courageous backstory 🙂 And then there’s Val – he is a new pro, so he doesn’t have a huge fanbase of his own; however, unlike Peta & Tristan, he has a family member that’s one of the most popular pros on the show, and it’s sounding like a lot of Maks’ fans are planning on voting for Val, too. Now here’s where it can get dicey – vote splitting is generally a baaaad idea, kids. However, I’m thinking that it’s probably going to be okay for the first few weeks, while much weaker, less popular celebs get weeded out – as long as either Elisa & Val or Hope & Maks don’t fall into the bottom of the leaderboard. But once the Robs & Rons & Chaz’s are gone – put all your eggs in one basket, kids. Decide who you’d rather see making it to the finals and vote for them and only them – HARD. I’m interested to see if people actually heed this one…and if so, which brother goes home first. I think it’s gonna be highly doubtful that both brothers will make it to the finals, but if they do – that’s when things get really interesting…
4.) David Arquette & Kym Johnson – Yes, this guy is a bit of a headcase at the moment and has a laugh that makes me want to punch babies, but the one big advantage he has that I’m not sure any of the other celebs this season do is that he has NO SHAME WHATSOEVER. Seriously – if Kym told him to wear a monkey suit and go out there and do the shittiest jive the show has ever seen, I’m sure he’d do it…and likely take it a step further by flirting with Bruno while he’s at it :-). This may seem like more of a disadvantage than an edge, but when it comes down to it – a celeb that is not afraid to go out there and give a performance 110%, no matter how silly they might feel, is a force to be reckoned with…especially when surrounded by celebs who are shy or afraid of looking dumb. David hasn’t had any dance experience, per se; however, he’s had a few movie roles where he’s goof-offish semi-dancing. Advantage? Meh, maybe. And whatever he’s got, Kym can certainly mold it into something useful – she’s definitely earned her spot next to Cheryl as the most decorated female pro on the show, and someone who can push their partners farther than anyone imagined. So what could be problematic? Well, that same erratic, goofball behavior that gives David the edge? It could also annoy the crap outta people, and that verbal diarrhea of his (see his recent Howard Stern interview) may turn some off completely. There’s also his recent marital & substance abuse problems – there might be some who have already written him off as a drunk and a cheating dog; there’s also some that may find his struggle to clean up his life endearing, a la Steve-O, and vote for him as a result. It’s a bit of a wild card…however, I think these two may fall just short of the finals, especially if the next 3 couples really do well…
3.) Hope Solo & Maks Chmerkovskiy – I’m not quite sure how to place these two…along with the other 2 couples I have advancing to the finals 😛 Seriously – I think I’ve rewritten my final 3 at least 10 times, and I’ve gone back and forth on who will win, and I still don’t really feel confident in my predictions. I think these two will most likely make the finals, by virtue of Maks being Maks 🙂 Honestly, before I even knew who this season’s celebs were, I thought to myself “Whoever has Maks or Derek likely has a ticket to the finals this season…as long as they don’t completely suck!” Seriously – those two seem to have perfected the formula for getting their celebs to the finals. And while I don’t think Hope is necessarily going to be a great dancer, I do think Maks will be able to showcase her athletic strengths well enough to take her far this season – if anything, she could be his “make-up” season for Misty, since they seem to be at roughly the same level of athletic ability. Plus she’s young & cute, and I heard a rumor that she thinks Maks is “hot”. 😉 Those Chmerkovskiy boys and their showmances! Haha. The downside: seems like a lot of folks don’t particularly care for Hope…more specifically, her attitude. Can’t tell if that’s going to play much of a factor at this point, but hopefully Hope steers clear of pulling out any ‘tude for the next few months…it didn’t work for Erin Andrews, and I doubt it would score Hope many points with viewers. There’s also the Chmerkovskiy vote-splitting I mentioned earlier – if too many people are trying to vote for both Maks AND Val, we could lose both of them sooner than we want to 🙁 If and when these two make it to the finals, I think their biggest struggle could be the freestyle – I don’t think Maks has really created his “magum opus” yet. He’s getting closer, but I don’t think he’s quite tweaked his freestyle formula to get jaw-dropping results yet. Interesting to see if this will finally be his season 🙂
2.) Ricki Lake & Derek Hough – I know I can’t be the only one that thinks Ricki is just cute as a button 🙂 I remember watching her talk show whenever I was off school when I was a kid, and I still love the original Hairspray. It’s sounding like a lot of folks have the same fond memories of her that I do – which is why I think she’ll end up being a fan favorite, even if her dancing is only so-so. She might have a slight edge in the performance department from her Broadway days, but it does seem like she is still struggling a bit with her weight and it could limit her mobility a bit. She also seems like she might be a bit accident prone – hopefully she walks away with just a few bumps & bruises, and nothing serious! She, like Hope, has the advantage of having a powerhouse pro – and the added boon of Derek’s return after a season-long absence, since some are salivating to see him dance again 😉 If it does indeed come down to both Maks & Derek in the finale, I think Derek has the edge in the freestyle department, but Maks may have the edge in terms of people wanting to see a different pro winning – I know many of you have been very vocal about wanting a pro who hasn’t won yet take the MBT, and a lot of folks seem to think Maks is the most deserving. A lot also seem to want “anyone but Derek!” to win. 🙂 While I too would like to see Maks win, I personally couldn’t vote for him solely based on his not having won yet – now if he and Hope are fantastic? That’s another story. But I do fear there could be a bit of Derek backlash this season, even if he and Ricki are great…but again, time will tell.
1.) JR Martinez & Karina Smirnoff – I don’t think I’ve been this pleased about a celebrity contestant since…well, I don’t know 🙂 And based on what I’ve seen & heard so far from the rehearsal videos – I think JR may have the juice to take the MBT this season. First, the obvious advantage: he’s got a touching, heroic backstory. This guy is a legitimate star in my eyes, the way he served and sacrificed for our country. I think his story could really bring out the patriot in a lot of the viewers. Secondly, he’s a soap star – and the demographics of soap viewers and DWTS viewers align perfectly. Third, it seems like the guy can actually dance – of all the rehearsal videos I’ve seen, his are the ones that are impressing me the most. I’m wondering if, growing up in a El Salvadoran household, he’s done a bit of salsa or merengue – he looks like he knows how to lead a bit, and already has somewhat of a dance frame; and if he’s got the work ethic & discipline of some of the military friends I have – he will work tirelessly to perfect it. And perhaps best of all – he and Karina actually look like they’re having FUN. Their promo pic was the most relaxed and natural-looking of the bunch, and JR is one of those folks that just seem grateful for the opportunity to learn how to dance. This guy has the potential to be an audience darling, methinks. Some possible hurdles: JR is definitely this season’s “Who?”, so he’s going to have to make a splash with viewers right off the bat, since his name is not as familiar as some of the other celebs this season. He’s also probably not going to be able to rely a whole lot on Karina’s fanbase for a boost if he’s up against pros like Maks & Derek – she’s got fans, but I’m not sure she can compete with powerhouses like them. But after the great discussion we had in part I of my power rankings, I’m convinced that, barring any huge disaster, JR will win this season…and I have absolutely no problems with that 😀
Alright guys, so I’ve locked in my preseason predictions 🙂 What are yours? Who will make it to the finale? Who will fall short? And who will take the coveted MBT? Only 3 more days until the journey begins!
Frankly, I’ll be shocked if JR doesn’t win.
Great job on both posts, Courtney! Kudos to you for putting all that work in to them. 🙂 I know you love it, but it’s still a mighty big job. Thank you!!!
Agree with everything about JR…not just a star but a true hero. I did the who with him when they first announced him but I had heard his story before
Yeah, I would be shocked as well if JR doesn’t win. He truly does have the whole package to win this, but you are right that he’s going to need to make a huge mark the first night to stand out. It helps that the clips I’ve seen of him dancing are great. Last season I have also enjoyed Karina and would be excited for her to win since she came so close so many seasons ago with Mario Lopez. I was having a hard placing Hope/Maks, David/Kym, and Ricki/Derek too. I see these couples battling for 2nd, 3rd and 4th after viewing all the media. It will be interesting how it plays out and how much the Chmerkovskiy vote-splitting comes into play as its a factor.
Courtney – IMO, you and your crystal ball have done a FANTASTIC job! Well reasoned and logical… can’t find a single thing to disagree with! You da bomb, girl! 🙂
I’m right there with Amanda on JR – when I heard his name, I went “Who?” But he’s a true American hero – someone I want to see win the MBT. I hope that happens.
Courtney, excellent again!!! And I so agree with you about the vote splitting. It might be ok at first, but, that could prevent your favorite couple from winning. So fans need to be careful on that (including myself)!!!
My opinions and rankings change daily it seems, but, I’m starting to think Nancy and Tristan could pull 3rd place like Maks and Kirstie did last Season for the fun and chemistry they have? I think Maks and Hope, Ricki and Derek, and JR and Karina are going to be in the top spots too. Then there is Val and Elisabetta. *sigh* I just can’t decide. 😯 I love all of this cast so much…well, except for Rob Kardashian.
If Nancy doesn’t suck, her and Tristan could place higher. And I’m not sold on Hope and Maks yet.
I agree about JR winning and that’s all that matters. Touching story – who wouldn’t be inspired by that.
Courtney, thank you for your thoughts, analysis and opinion as always! I love reading your insight to the strengths and weaknesses of the couples. I do agree with your top 3 actually. I think people will buy into the showmance btw Maks/Hope and if she is a decent dancer, people will vote for her esp since Maks is one of the most popular pros. I’m not sure about Hope’s personality/attitude, tbh, because I haven’t really watched their interviews and stuff.
Like Heidi has mentioned before, the DWTS fans that actually take the time to post on the internet are a small fraction of the people that watch and vote on the show… so the people that are vocal about ‘anybody else can win, just not Derek’ is probably not as big as people on the internet think it is. There is a reason that he has an excellent record on the show and I think a lot more people enjoy watching him than not. Ricki is going to appeal to a lot of the viewers also because she is relateable (weight isseues, her talk show, Hairspray memories) and she is very funny! I think as long as he and Ricki entertain, show everyone that they are having a lot of fun, and turn in some great and memorable performances, they have a good chance of making it to the finals. Just please, no drama!
I agree about everything your said about JR and Karina. A war hero, soap opera star, latin blood, and he seems like a genuinely nice and great person. He is going to capture the hearts of the DWTS audience. I also think that people thought that Karina (& Ralph) was robbed last season, so with JR, she might have a 1-way ticket to the MBT!
Whether Hope sucks or not… She’ll be one of the last 2 female standing. Kristin or Ricki will be the other ones. Go Kristin!
I don’t think that Hope is a sure thing for last two females standing by ANY yardstick. Too many factors involved here and I think a big one this season will be entertainment. If you have louder/nicer personalities like Nancy, Ricki, David, Carson, JR, and so on, Hope and Maks might find themselves in for a shock, ESPECIALLY since I”m not convinced that Maks fans can restrict themselves to voting for only ONE Chmerkovskiy. Vote splitting is a really bad idea – question is, do people get that?
I’m with Heidi – I had a hard time placing Hope because I’m not certain she’s going to be as good as everyone has hyped her up to be. She’s definitely someone that is “on the bubble” for me – she could either do really well or really poorly. Or get lost in the shuffle. Hell, sometimes I even think Elisabetta & Val could outlast Hope & Maks. I don’t think she’s even close to a lock for the finale…neither is Kristin. I think at this point, the only guarantee for the finale is maybe JR…given that the viewers really connect with his story and embrace him, and he’s as good if not better live than he is in rehearsals.
Great rite-up. Courtney. I agree, J.R seems to have the whole package, and I would love to see him and Karina win.
I like your comments, Courtney, but I disagree with almost 100% of couples ranking.
Think I just agree with J.R. and Karina on 1st… hehehehe
Carlos, rather than just telling me “I disagree with almost 100% of your rankings”, why don’t you tell me why and how you would change them? 🙂
Courtney:
Your rankings are 100% on! Please!
I think JR looks great but after looking at his rehearsal, I’m not sure he’s going to take the MBT. I really think he’s got some moves but the competition will just get more difficult. I thought Ralph and Pamela would make the finals but they didn’t although it was the fault of the WTA (what a dumb idea. Producers, please do not do that again!) that didn’t get Ralph in the finals.
I’m disappointed about David and Kym’s position. Only #4? 🙁
Courtney, I’m still confused about why you think Hope and Maks will be in the finals. You say she’s cute and Maks still need to tweak his freestyles
If Ricki and Derek makes the finals, they’ll win. Derek has the most BANGING freestyles! That’s why I found it a little weird to see him and Ricki in the 2nd place. I know some people are believing now that it’s not just the freestyles that gives the couple a trophy but I really think Ricki and Derek will win if they reach the finals. I just know it and can’t think of a reason why they won’t. This just reminds me of Derek and Jennifer Grey. Jennifer is much older than him and he had to work with her in order to work around her injuries like with the neck. There’s no injuries Ricki has that I know of (except for the one on her foot that the media made a huge deal out of) so that works out fine.
Courtney, how’s your record on your predictions like this? Are your predictions usually correct? I think season 12 right after it started was the first time I really visited a lot so I asked.
JR for the win!! I think once he steps out on the dancefloor there will be no one that will be able to touch him. No one. And why would they want to, this is an ideal opportunity for a hero like JR to shine and I would hate to be the pro or celeb that was up against him and took that MBT. Granted he would have to earn it, but if both couples fulfilled that deed, then Professional or not, how could you stand next to this dear soul and feel good about yourself. Everytime you would look at that trophy you would think of JR and the sacrifices he made for our freedom. Sorry those are just my feelings….
So if JR and Karina are eliminated I hope it is before the finals so this scenario does not have to happen….
Thanks Courtney – I really look forward to your thoughts both before and during the season – I can tell you really spend a lot of time thinking about it. For me this site has become part of my whole DWTS experience!!
I really think this season is quite difficult to call. At the moment I agree that Karina and JR seem like a winning ticket – his heroic background and her improved attitude and season with Ralph make them a good ticket.
I hope you are right with your whole top 3. If (as many are predicting) this is Maks and Derek’s last season then it would be great to have them around for as long as possible. Their charisma adds a great deal to the season for me. I would particularly like to see one more Freestyle from Derek! I understand people may not want him to win again, but I hope that they don’t vote him out too soon. He was really missed last season. A lot also depends on Hope. If she is a bit more like Erin, then it is quite possible that Val and Elisabetta could overtake them. And I never rule out Kim – any of your top 5 could be there!
Still it may all be different after Monday night. There are always surprises that first night! I’ll really look forward to the Power Rankings!
Thanks Courtney – I really look forward to your thoughts both before and during the season – I can tell you really spend a lot of time thinking about it. For me this site has become part of my whole DWTS experience!!
I really think this season is quite difficult to call. At the moment I agree that Karina and JR seem like a winning ticket – his heroic background and her improved attitude and season with Ralph make them a good ticket.
I hope you are right with your whole top 3. If (as many are predicting) this is Maks and Derek’s last season then it would be great to have them around for as long as possible. Their charisma adds a great deal to the season for me. I would particularly like to see one more Freestyle from Derek! I understand people may not want him to win again, but I hope that they don’t vote him out too soon. He was really missed last season. A lot also depends on Hope. If she is a bit more like Erin, then it is quite possible that Val and Elisabetta could overtake them. And I never rule out Kim – any of your top 5 could be there!
Still it may all be different after Monday night. There are always surprises that first night! I’ll really look forward to the Power Rankings!
Well, Liz, I thought I spelled it out pretty clearly, but I guess here it is: I’m actually not sold on Hope & Maks making the finals (I actually mentioned not feeling very certain about them), and I think a lot of their popularity right now is just pre-show hype. For reasons I can’t get into, I don’t think everything’s going to be smooth sailing for them this season. Yes, Hope is cute, and yes, Maks needs to work on his freestyles – but that doesn’t preclude them from making it into the finale. Nor does it guarantee them a spot in the finale. If there’s one reason they do make it (even if Hope can’t dance for beans), I think it will be Maks’ popularity alone – people want to see him win, and think it’s about time he did. I could see them voting (and voting hard) for him regardless of how well Hope does.
And JR is not going to take the MBT based solely on his dance skills – people have got to like him, too, and I think they’re going to. We all know the competition gets more difficult as the season wears on; but it’s the couples that are the “whole package” that can weather the storm. JR seems like the full package to me – dance skill, good work ethic, and so likeable. Really and truly, to me he’s looking like the best of all the celebs so far in rehearsal…let’s just say I’ve felt a bit let down but what I’m seeing from a lot of the couples so far.
And no, I don’t see David & Kym making it to the finale – especially if he’s as unstable as he’s appeared on several of his talk show appearances thus far. I also worry that he might suffer from what I like to call “Brandy Syndrome” – being so desperate to win that it’s actually a bit off-putting. The poor girl was a great dancer, but every week she looked like she might die if she didn’t make it through to the next week. And she was devastated when she was eliminated. I get the feeling David could be the same way – he’s so bound & determined for this competition to help him get his life on the right track that he may try too hard.
Again, people don’t get voted OFF this show. The get voted to stay ON this show. If you want someone to stay you have to vote for them. I know that seems like I’m parsing words, but I am absolutely NOT doing that. If people decide they don’t want Derek to win, they can’t just say it, they have to VOTE FOR SOMEONE ELSE. Like if Derek fans want to see him for as long as possible, they have to vote. If Derek or Maks do not win, it won’t be because some group decided to get rid of them, it will be because they voted more for someone else.
Comparing JR to Ralph or Pam doesn’t fly. Neither Ralph nor Pam were war heroes burned over more than 40% of their body. This show is not just about dancing – people say that all the time, but then comment as if only the dancing matters. The dancing is less than half the battle, IMO.
Something else to remember, that I bet all the pros remember – if Derek has made it to the final, he has WON. Every time. If he makes it to the final (and there are no guarantees at all), his odds go way up.
Actually, I have to disagree with you. While everyone does know that JR is a war hero, and that’s very noble and something to be respected, I don’t think he will win. The problem isn’t him. It has nothing to do with him. It’s his partner – Karina. She’s either a “love her or hate her” pro, especially these last few seasons. I just don’t think she has the fan base, or the combined fan base with JR’s fans, to over take some of the more popular pros (and you know who they are).
As far as the brothers Chmerkovskiy are concerned, we had Derek and Julianne on at the same time..I’m sure there was vote splitting there too. Who’s to say that there isn’t vote splitting amongst pros that you’d never even expect? It can be done, and, like as not, when one goes home, that will just cause the fan base to shift to the other one (personally, I see Maks lasting far further than Val).
Again, people over estimate that internet fans power – I doubt very much there is a strong negative feeling toward Karina with general viewers.
As for Maks and Val, you don’t think it matters?? Well, as a Derek fan, I say go right ahead and vote for both of them. 🙂
But if you want one to win and not accidentally get eliminated early (see Sabrina Bryan), then you best not vote for both. By all means, though, if you insist…..
I think you’re making a lot of assumptions, Sarah. I don’t think you can count on all of Maks’ fans voting for Val if Maks goes first, and vice-versa – you might be able to count on a small cross-section of diehard Maks fans (who don’t represent the majority) to do so, but I sincerely doubt the average viewer would automatically say “Awww shucks, Val is gone. Guess I better throw my votes to Maks!” Same goes for Derek & Julianne and Derek & Mark – they aren’t a package deal. Just because they might be siblings or bff’s, does not mean that you can count on the average viewer to make that distinction and suddenly toss their votes to them. And like it or not, vote splitting is usually beneficial to the party who’s votes aren’t getting split – i.e. Maks, Val, & Karina make the finale. The same group of fans are dividing their votes evenly between Maks & Val, while another group of fans is giving all their votes solely to Karina. Unless the group of fans splitting votes between the Chmerkovskiy boys is more than double the size of the group voting only for Karina, the vote splitting will almost always fail…even if Karina’s fanbase is as small as you think it is, which I’m fairly certain it’s not. Obviously she’s not totally hated, with some of the truly amazing feats of votes that she & Ralph’s supporters came up with last season. I think JR’s got the potential to be even more popular with fans than Ralph was…and like it or not, a pro’s fanbase alone cannot win the MBT. You have to have the support of the general public. So as much as you might THINK Karina is hated (a belief many diehard Maks fans seem to have), you have to remember that the diehard fans are not the majority – the average, semi-casual viewer is. And honestly, I doubt they play into a lot of that drama and tend to vote for whoever they like…which is why having Karina as his partner likely did not have much of an effect on Ralph’s placing last season. The judges & that wretched WTA cha-cha? Now that’s another story…
…vote however you want, Sarah. But I suggest you not play into the logical fallacy that vote splitting works. Unless you plan doubling your voting efforts from last season (and I can’t guarantee that that will even work, based on the fact that the number of votes cast grows every year), it’s mathmatically ill-advised.
I agree with most of the rankings here except for val and elisabetta. I feel like like i am missing some info here, because there is no way i see them getting as high as 5th, i see them leaving in the first few weeks. lets say all of maks fans are daring enough to give half of their votes to val (like you guys have been saying very dumb), it seems unlikely (with the vast array of entertaining or charming personalities that are around this season) that maks and val would both survive that long working with half the votes (5th and 3rd respectively) .the only difference i see is hope seems to have a bigger fanbase at the moment than elisabetta. so although both teams would be on thin ice for a quick elimination, i see 1/2 maks vote + hope votes outlasting 1/2 maks vote (for val)+ elisabetta votes. so if one of them does go home quickly , i see it as val and elisabetta in the first few weeks. Then it will become interesting bc maks votes will be back full force and maybe a even a little more determined since baby brother was eliminated…the biggest question mark for me is hope’s personality. I know i havent taken into account actually dancing, but i cannot judge that at the moment. if elisabetta is stellar and hope sucks then maybe the roles will switch, but i just dont see that happening.
Just speaking for myself, I don’t vote just for a pro when it starts to get close to the finale. Yes, I’m a Derek fan. But if someone like JR is dancing well, had given it his all, and is compelling, then I’ll vote for the celeb. But maybe that’s just me…
Like I said earlier on this thread, I think Courtney has done an excellent analysis of their chances. I won’t argue with a single thing she mentioned. That said, here’s what I’m *hoping* will happen:
12. Kym and the Douche Bag – Kym is my favorite female pro, but…
11. Rob and Cheryl – I wanted to rank Rob higher, but my mommy wouldn’t let me… 😉
10. Ron and Peta – Sorry, but I just can’t get the video of Ron beating the crap out of some basketball fan out of my head.
9. Chynna and Tony – To borrow heavily from Nat King Cole: “Unforgettable….. that’s what you aren’t….”
8. Chaz and Lacey – I just don’t think Chaz is in the physical shape necessary, and with him being short, it’s going to be difficult to make him appear to be “larger than life” on the dance floor. Plus I’m not all that fond of Lacey.
7. Carson and Anna – Ditto what Courtney said; Carson is going to be the most fun to watch, but not sure about the dancing.
6. Elisabetta and Val – Neither of them are well known by DWTS folks.
5. Hope and Maks – I don’t know, I just don’t get a good vibe about these two.
4. Kristin and Mark – Markie has rabid power-voting fans… they’ll hang around for a while.
3. Nancy and Tristan – I’m hoping these 2 stick around this long, and Nancy gets to write a BIG check for her charity!
2. Ricki and Derek – It’ll be a BOFFO freestyle, but I think my favorite pro comes up just a wee bit short, because of…
1. JR and Karina – …the compelling story plus the “warrior work ethic”, plus he seems likeable.
…aaaaand, that’s just one gal’s guess. My guesses plus $7.50 will get you a latte in the trendy coffee house of your choice.. 😉
Always enjoy your power rankings even if I don’t agree with you. First I do not see Elisabetta and Val lasting as long as you think. I find her annoying and Val just doesn’t interest me, and the lack of fan base will be a factor unless she is a really good dancer and I don’t think she is. I also definitely disagree about Hope and Maks. She has not impressed me at all in the videos-I’m not convinced she can dance. I definitely agree with everyone who says people need to pick Maks or Val and not split votes, but everyone will decide for themselves. I also don’t think David will do that well. I might be wrong but I don’t think he can dance-of course Kym is very good of hiding the flaws of her partners and making them look good but his personality will come into play here. JR has surprised me. Being very pro military, I expected to automatically adore him. However, in his first interviews I found him a tad cocky. I was shocked because I WANT to be on his side! Maybe he will win me over. I’m definitely wanting Mark and Kristin to stay in as long as possible. I think you may be underestimating her fan base. And yes, Sally, I’m one of those rabid Mark fans who will vote like mad for him!
As a daughter of a navy vetren im really happy to see JR Martinez dancing on dwts this season I will defently be rooting for him this year. I have my fingers crossed that he wins. It will be nice to see a true hero perform on dwts. Courtney I think you ranking are right on the money but i think rob may give ron a run for his money on being the first to go.
yikes, Michele, if you’re the typical “rabid Mark fan,” I’m glad there aren’t many who hang out here.
Gahh! I want Maks to win a MBT soooo badly! But unfortunatly, I don’t like Hope very much. So if she wants my votes, she better change my mind. I’d love to vote for them just for Maks, which I might just end up doing, but if Hope doesn’t change her attitude, I won’t feel good with her taking all the glory too.. 🙂
Sally. love your rankings. Ok, I’m going to tak a stab at it now so I can look back and laugh at this for how wrong I probably am.
12. Rob and Cheryl -I have a feeling he’s an awful dancer. Most people aren’t fond of the Kardashians and how they got famous.
11. Chynna and Tony -Not enough promo work and forgettable.
10. Ron and Peta -His L.A. Laker fan club will keep him in for a bit even if he’s not very good.
9. Kristin and Mark -I don’t know why. I get the feeling she isn’t a very good dancer.
8. David and Kym – The Howard Stern interview might have hurt his chances.
7. Carson and Anna -He’s going to be so funny. America will love him and want him to stick around unless he’s an awful dancer.
6. Chaz and Lacey -I think he’s going to be a great dancer like Kyle Massey and he’s going to have a big backing with his message. The more hate out there that comes out, the more love and support he will get. He’ll have Cher fans voting for him too.
5. Elisabetta and Val -Val is going to grow on America and fast imo.
4. Jr and Karina -I almost put him at 3rd. No doubt his story is going to be inspiring and America is going to love him.
3. Nancy and Tristan -I think they will both pull off a “Maks and Kirstie” last season.
2. Derek and Ricki -Their pre promotions have been off the hook and both have big fan bases to support them.
1. Maks and Hope -I could be blinded here since I love Maks so much. I’m hoping this season is finally his time for a MB, but, only if it’s deserving and she can dance. I do worry about her attitude though and hope it doesn’t come off “too good” like it does sometimes.
I have a big problem because I want to split my votes between Maks, Val, Derek, and Tristan. I love Peta too. What to do? What to do? 😯
@voguerista: I agree about Nancy. She is going to last a lot longer than people think in my opinion. Not gonna lie it felt weird seeing happy and fun Nancy in the begining but it jsut shows how multilayered she is i think. I was watching her other show the other day and was like wow I really think she can be the celeb this seaso nto balance job and DWTS simulataneously…..which leads me to something that I have a horrible feeling will be true.
I think that this season Hope is going to have a difficult time. I watched the rehersal footage last time and compared to Maks’ past partners she seems more talented than Erin but has the same atitude.
Yep, I think you nailed it Vin!
I hope JR & Karina and Carson & Anna kill it. They are my two favorite contestants and paired with my two favorite pros. I think I’m more excited for this season than I have been for any other since season 10, which is when I started watching. 🙂 🙂 🙂
And PureDWTS seriously makes it like 10x better. Yay! 😀
Nancys show tonight is Tom Burgeron and some past winners and of course the lovely Tristan. Tristan is getting alot of press with Nancy as his partner and thats good for them.
@Vogue – Love your rankings, I love Mark up as high as #9, not sure about Maks taking the MBT. I think last year was his best chance ever, and the first year I really liked him. I think JR will place higher and Ricki lower. Chynna who?
Sandy, thanks. I probably should have placed Mark and Kristin higher. I was having flashbacks from the last two seasons. lol
Rory, thanks for what you said in your last sentence. 😉
Cool rankings Vogue! I see your point on Nancy. She is getting a lot of press and showing such a different personality then what we have seen from her HLN show. She may be a wild card. Also, I like her partner and his Irish accent. He’ll be a good replacement when Derek decides to move on to bigger things. I ranked Hope in the top 4, but its subject to change once I see her dance since we don’t know how she will do. She will go far though because of Maks and his fan base alone. I think JR will place higher and maybe win if he knocks it out of the park. I love where Courtney and you placed Ricki/Derek for 2nd. From the pre-promotion I’m seeing I’m loving them. It could be I may be a little on the blind side since I love Derek and excited he’s back. However, I do think they look great and their personality shine which the audience should love.
Has anyone seen or heard who Jimmy Kimmel picked to win this season? Just curious.
OMG Sally, I forgot about that! Yes, please, if anyone heard about who Jimmy picked as the winners, please let us know! He’s been accurate so many times.
Lisa G, thanks!! One way or the other and like you, I bet Maks and Hope place in the top 4 too. I love Derek and Ricki too. They are going to be so entertaining.
Sally,I’d like to know Jimmy’s pick too.
There are only three things I can think of that stand between JR and the MBT. What if he screws up one week, and gets eliminated. We’ve seen that happen before. What if another couple screws up badly, and people vote for them instead of JR and Karina. The last thing is the freestyle. Derek and Maks have more freestyle experience than Karina. Yes, Maks hasn’t figured out how to ace the freestyle round yet, but he might come through this season. Derek will come up with a killer freestyle, everyone knows it. Karina, I didn’t watch season 3. was her freestyle with Mario good? I need to youtbe it
Looking back at previous preliminary power rankings, I think all that can often be done at this point is try to identify the top 4 or 5 (with the exception of Season 10 when Courtney nailed it!!). Usually the season throws up dynamics you don’t expect or personalities who just charm which obviously affect how people vote. A reasonable number of people who watch are not rabid supporters of any particular couple – and will vote for particular dances or in reaction to a particular story arc.
Once it comes to the finals, it’s a whole different dynamic again. It so depends on who is watching (usually more people and often people will vote in the finals who won’t all season) and the judges and the freestyles. If you can get your favourite couple to the finals, then most of them have a chance. I agree that JR and Ricki will likely be in the finals but am finding it difficult to predict the third couple (probably Hope or maybe Nancy). It’s really exciting to have a season with lots of potentially good couples – bring it on!!
Nancy is definitely the wild card for me – only ever seen clips (on other shows) where she is in rabid conservative attack mode and wow talk about not judging a book by its cover!! – i really wanna have a girls night in and get plastered with her AND have a great night out clubbing and getting plastered and picking up/shooting down guys with her – i really really hope she stays in a long while
When i first saw the cast list i was so Meh! now i can’t wait – or decide my power rankings – or even my fan fave – fickle or lazy? i dunno – but i do appreciate those of you who do 🙂
AND YEEEHAW we are getting this season over in the uk – no more trolling for clips and missing the mighty Bergeron on you tube – why oh why doesn’t anyone just do an upload of the Berg clips each week? why oh why has the Berg not been given his own show???? let alone an Emmy!! Such a shame that there is no way in hell that we can get him to do the transatlantic hop with bruno and len and host Strictly for us 🙂 🙁 i guess we will have to stick to ripping the sh** out of that old old institution called Brucie – oops now Sir Brucie, giving us even more sycophantic material to rip the … out of)
and as a side bar are you over there aware of the mighty mighty monkseal? he blogs every show with such finesse and loving,cutting, devastatingly accurate humour (and screenshots) – much along the lines of your comments waiting for the cast reveal on the bachelor show – only over here we get our own dedicated show in all its dreadful glory (but i love it) – go on i dare ya to take a peek http://monkseal.wordpress.com/2011/09/16/strictly-come-dancing-9-launch-show/
he outrageously was on holiday when the show aired so this was a tad late – he does a similar recap of every show – no need for you to watch the shows just read the monkseal 🙂
TPTB must be sharing ideas as this year we have an Italian Ex girlfriend too!! Tho ours is not as glamorous, nor is her ex pml George Clooney v Sven Goren Erikson – no contest!! much like the idea of you sending us the Berg (drool) in exchange for Len and Bruno – even the the two for one doesn’t make it a fair exchange (tho tbf you would miss being able to slate and blame Len and Bruno), AND they had to settle for titling her as Italian Siren as she has even less relevance on her CV. Absolutely prime material for sarcastic fun tho 🙂 🙂 so we may have got the best out of that deal 🙂 – she thinks she is the second most famous italian in uk after Sophia Loren!! and her name is such a gift, Nancy D’lallio or something – so many plays on that name so little time 🙂
I would love for Anna and Carson can stick around longer just because I think they’ll be great fun to watch and I really like Anna, maybe they could trade places with Mark and Kristin.
@Dwtsfreak, you should not only watch Mario Lopez and Karina Freestyle. You should watch all of their dances! They were amazing! Their Freestyle was one of the best I’ve ever seen. Watch!
Uh oh, bad sign.Chynna and tony appear to be dancing 4th. NOT a good slot for her.
Speaking of Karina. Its awfully quiet on their front, not much press at all. Is that a good sign? Some of these other couples have been all over the media already.
That’s coz Chynna and J.R. didn’t train in LA.
Buzz before season doesn’t mean much IMO …. look at Kate
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