Ah, it’s that time of year again. The time when everyone makes preseason predictions and picks favorites…and it all goes to hell in one dance.  Well, my preseason guess of JR Martinez as the one to beat holds true. Very happy with Ricki and Chynna, although I am afraid that Chynna won’t kill the latin and may fade into the wood work.  How much do I love Carson? Let me count the ways.

Anyway, I’m very afraid that no one is going to like my numbers – *I* don’t even like my numbers. But they are what they are.  By the way, Maks fans, Tony fans and Karina fans missed out if they didn’t check out Ricki’s live Ustream tonight as all of those pros made appearances. You might want to check it in upcoming weeks.

Okay, so what do the numbers say??

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Well, first off, I think that Chynna, JR, Hope and Ricki are safe to dance next week. BUT, Chynna and Hope need to make a better impact next week – Hope needs to let Maks lead, and Chynna needs to have another great dance and get more personality. Like Courtney, I’m getting a real Audrina vibe from her and dancing can only save you for so long.  JR did a beautiful job, as did Ricki, and I don’t think anyone will forget them. At least, I hope not.

The middle of the pack?? Well, it’s freakin’ insane. There’s a whole bunch of meh with a hearty dose of WTF??  Of the middle of the pack, Chaz and Carson are the standouts – lovely surprises both of them. And I must say that her partnership with Chaz is making me into a Lacey fan.  And how much did I love that show of support by the male pros after Chaz danced and they’re getting ready to head back to the floor?? Very, very much.  Derek and Maks stood out to me as two of many who gave supportive back slaps.

As for Carson – hilarious. Holy hell, dude could be a semi-finalist on personality alone. We could be in trouble. He could be the gay Ty Murray.

Who am I forgetting (aka Who’s in Danger because I can’t remember they’re on the show)?  Well, David is probably not in trouble. I’m thinking that was likely first night jitters.  Kristin is probably fine, although you can only skate by on hair choreography and an over-dancing pro for so long. Although he did keep his cool for the most part.  She needs to make more of a positive impression – totally don’t think that whole “I’m not a bitch” storyline worked for her. Honey, most people who watch this show DON’T KNOW WHO YOU ARE, don’t put thoughts into their heads that weren’t there to begin with!

That brings us to the bottom four. Oh dear. Ron, Rob, Nancy and Elisabetta.  I wish I could say that I thought Rob was going home, if only to say “thank god no more tacky, screaming K Kardashians in the audience”. I mean, can you BE more tacky (tm Chandler Bing )?? But I think Rob and Nancy are both likely safe, for different reasons: one has a Kardashian fanbase that won’t necessarily vote in numbers but should be good enough for a week or two, and the other is likeable who has a fanbase of her own.  Plus, they were the ONLY two people from the show who trended on Twitter last night, that I saw. Of course, that’s not necessarily a positive, as Ray J was trending all day yesterday. Pretty sure Osama Bin Laden has trended often.  Just sayin’.

Now, what would it take for Ron to stay? Well, not a whole lot, unfortunately for Elisabetta.  Ron needs ONE of the following in terms of votes to stay:

-          4,610 more votes per million votes cast to stay over Elisabetta

-          9,220 more votes per million votes cast to stay over Rob or Nancy

-          13,825 more votes per million votes cast to stay over Carson and/or Chaz

-          18,435 more votes per million votes cast to stay over David

Well, I personally think he can take Elisabetta just on sheer crazy. Don’t underestimate crazy when stacked up against forgettable.  He MIGHT be able to take Rob, but I don’t think he has the juice to take Nancy, Carson or Chaz.  I could certainly be wrong.  But, it doesn’t matter – he only needs to beat one of them.  If Elisabetta gets through on the Chmerkovskiy vote, then he could take Rob out.

Just on the off chance that all those people get a ton of votes, what happens when you stack Ron against the others?  Or putting it another way, what would it take for someone other than those in the bottom half of the scoring to go home?  Well, Ron is the key. If he gets the following votes and the other 5 do nearly as well, then someone else could go home. 

-          He would need 23,045 more votes per million votes cast to stay over Kristin

-          He would need 27,650 more votes per million votes cast to stay over Ricki

-          He would need 32,260 more votes per million votes cast to stay over Hope

-          He would need 36,870 more votes per million votes cast to stay over Chynna or JR

Now, I just don’t see any of this happening. For, say, Kristin to go home, not only would Ron need all those votes, but Elisabetta, Rob, Nancy, Carson, Chaz and David would all have to get a certain number of votes more than her per million votes cast.  This is why I think that the top 5 are likely safe.

How likely is it that Elisabetta goes home? Well, if Ron does get the votes he needs to beat her and Rob or Nancy, then she has to get more votes than those above her by the following margins:

-          She needs 4,610 more votes than either Rob or Nancy, or;

-          She needs 9,220 more votes than either Carson or Chaz, or;

-          She needs 13,825 more votes than David.

So, essentially, if Ron gets his votes as shown above to beat Elisabetta, Rob and Nancy, and Carson and Chaz, and Elisabetta gets 4,610 more than either Rob or Nancy, then Rob or Nancy goes home.

However, I don’t see that happening. I think it’s between Ron and Elisabetta, with Ron getting the votes he needs, sending Elisabetta home.  I just don’t think that she has the juice to beat any of the people around her – and I would bet the Chmerkovskiy fans voted for both Maks and Val limiting their impact.

We’ll see tonight. Heaven knows I get this wrong as often as I get it right, but that’s how I see it right now.