DWTS Season 13, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers
Another wack ass night of DWTS. I mean, seriously?? A two-way tie for second place and a four-way tie for third place? In what freakin’ universe is JR tied with Kristin? He should be alone at the top of the leaderboard, as much as I love Derek and Ricki. That said, it makes virtually no difference, since the top 7 couples are within two points of each other. Madness. And considering who’s in the bottom we could get a surprise. Hope (heh) there was no Chmerkovskiy vote splitting – even though I didn’t think Hope’s dance was very good, it’s too soon for her to go.
After thinking about it for a bit, I think that Len was probably right about Ricki and JR, both – Derek said out loud that he went more West Coast Swing and that flip that Karina put in their dance was definitely Lindy-ish, which knocks a point off both dances (and yes, she HAS called a lift at the end or beginning on some (Derek) but not on others (Mark)). But both pros did what they had to do to make an impact with the audience and get their partner through the dance – good for them. Add in Carrie Ann and her random lift policing deducting another point and you have JR a point down from Ricki. That said, on twitter I proclaimed JR’s dance worthy of a 27, so to say I was shocked by the scores is an understatement. At the risk of contradicting myself yet again, I do appreciate that the judges are FINALLY keeping the scoring reasonable – JR’s score is the only one I was shocked by last night, when all was said and done.
Also, according to a British friend of mine, “Me old sausage” is indeed a term of endearment, so we can’t crack on Brooke too much. 😀
I think Ricki and JR are definitely safe…after that I’m not so sure of anyone. Kristin and Chynna are likely safe. Everyone else with a 21? I’m not so sure. Let’s see how the leader board stacks up once you run some numbers.
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Place | Celebrity | Score | Percentage |
1. | Ricki | 23 | 10.31 |
2. | JR | 22 | 9.87 |
2. | Kristin | 22 | 9.87 |
4. | Chynna | 21 | 9.42 |
4. | Rob | 21 | 9.42 |
4. | Nancy | 21 | 9.42 |
4. | Elisabetta | 21 | 9.42 |
8. | Hope | 19 | 8.52 |
9. | Carson | 18 | 8.07 |
9. | David | 18 | 8.07 |
11. | Chaz | 17 | 7.62 |
Okay. So, Chaz is in the bottom spot for the week and the big question is – how many people are actually voting for him??? I have no earthly idea. Is he doing better than the also controversial/quirky Carson and David?? For him to stay, he only needs about 4,500 more votes than ONE of them. How big is the LBGT community and are they vote splitting between Carson and Chaz and does that leave David safe?? For that matter, how big of a fanbase does David REALLY have?
My gut tells me that David’s star power (in Hollywood terms) outshines Carson and Chaz, but my gut’s been wrong before. I mean, Carson is HILARIOUS and how can you resist a guy who so openly drools over Maks, with Mark and Derek as backups?? I think many of us here can relate to drooling over the male pros, eh? 🙂
So, Chaz needs 4,500 more votes than either Carson or David to stick around. If he gets 4,500 more votes than one of them, that one goes home UNLESS all three of them are getting a ton of votes more than someone else. Like who? Well, who is in the next tier? Hope Solo. For Chaz, Carson and David to all stick around this week, ALL of the following things have to happen:
– Chaz has to get 8,970 more votes per million votes cast than Hope, and;
– David AND Carson both have to get 4,500 more votes per million votes cast than Hope.
If all three of the above things happen, Hope goes home. Do I think this is likely? No. Granted, that’s not a whole lot of votes, but I think Maks and Hope (or Maks at least) has the juice to stay ahead of all three of those guys. But it is a bit of a scary thing.
So, the other question I’ve seen around is, what about Elisabetta? She’s in the next level up along with Rob, Chynna and Nancy. Now, I think that those three all beat Elisabetta easily, in terms of votes, so the real focus here is Elisabetta – if you want you can substitute any of the other three into Elisabetta’s place to see what it would take for them to go home. What has to happen for Elisabetta to go home? ALL of the following:
– Chaz has to get 17,950 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
– Carson has to get 13,460 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
– David has to get 13,460 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
– All of her cohorts (Rob, Nancy and Chynna) all need ONE more vote than her per million votes cast, AND;
– Hope has to get 8,970 more votes per million votes cast than Elisabetta.
The question is, did all of Maks’ fans throw all their votes to Maks because of his and Hope’s lower score?? Are David, Chaz and Carson pulling in those kinds of numbers, or is no one voting for Elisabetta?? Or, worse yet, did Maks’ fans split the vote, making it more likely that Hope and Maks go home.
Beats me. This is a tough one. I kinda think it’s either going to be Chaz or Elisabetta going home, with David as a long shot. The minute I go with the safe bet and say Chaz is leaving, it will be Elisabetta. But, I tend to think that while Hope, Carson and David can get the required votes over Elisabetta, I’m not at all sure that Chaz can.
I’m afraid I’m going to have to temper my expectations of the voting audience and say that Chaz will be the one leaving us tonight, but the only actual result that would shock me is Ricki, JR, Kristin or Chynna.
From what I saw on Twitter, I don’t think Maks’s fans split their vote this time and I didn’t see many “I just voted for Val & Elisabetta” tweets either. It will be interesting to see if Chaz or Elisabetta go home.
Should be an interesting night.
Seems to me if both Hope and Elisabetta stay tonight, that’ll give the Chmerkovskiy vote splitters a false sense of security. In which case I forsee a Ukranian train wreck a couple weeks down the line.
If Val and Elisabetta are the ones leaving, any bets on which couple will be standing next to them under the red light? LOL
Cidra: I think that as much Maks’s fans like Val, they are loyal to the older brother. I think they all got nervous after last night’s scores.
I was thinking the same thing this morning, if Elisabetta does leave today, I think Maks and Val will be the last two standing on stage and it will be decided between them, It adds drama and ratings.
Amanda, Hope you’re right (no pun intended) about Maks fan loyalty.
I also hope Val gets a chance again next season to develop a fan base of his own; maybe with a higher profile celeb who can help bring votes his way.
I fully expect to see Maks and Hope & Val and Elisabetta in the bottom 3 if not the bottom 2 tonight. *sigh*
Evaine, just have a glass of wine nearby to calm your nerves. That’s my plan.
I think I’ll have to hit the vodka! *g*
I would love a shocker tonight. Last night’s show was cringeworthy. And I’m not talking about the dancing. Viewers should get some sort of payoff for sitting through it. Did the judges knock back shots before going on the air? You’d think they were at a drunken wedding table instead of part of an ensemble. Remember, just because you shout down everyone else and ramble does not mean you’re right or endearing.
Evaine, I’m with you hitting the vodka tonight. I’ll just die if Maks is in the bottom three.
I asked my boss who she thinks is going home. She thinks it will be Elisabetta. She thought her attitude was awful and she can’t dance.
Anyway, great numbers post again, Heidi.
@Jay – I LOVE YOUR COMMENT!!!!! 😀 Couldn’t agree with you MORE!
I’m still thinking we should start one of those “Twittition” thingys – Get the 3 Stooges OFF of DWTS!!!!
LOL to Ukranian Train Wreck. Don’t be surprised if I blatantly steal that line at some point in the future. 🙂
If Chaz is safe tonight, I absolutely agree that you will see Maks and Val standing there at the end, unless of course it’s NOT Elisabetta going home. Then one of them will get called safe before bottom 2.
Of course those crazy kids (producers) have been trying very hard to be different, so who knows?
Evaine, we’ve discussed this. One really does need some booze to get through DWTS results show, if not due to fear of elimination then due to relaxing the urge to poke your own eye out at the degree of absurd filler in that show.
These are the hours that try my willpower to not light up a cigarette. *LOL* It’ s been 3 months and 3 weeks, BTW, since my last one.
I am eyeing the vodka. 🙂
If I could just pick, based on nothing, I’d send Rob home. I think that Elisabetta has a bad attitude so I think she’ll go home tonight. I do like Val, but not enough to keep her around. I LOVE Maks, but he doesn’t do it for me with Hope. I would not be sad to see them leave. I love Chaz’ attitude so I’d love to see him stick around for a few more weeks. Should be interesting tonight.
I think I need something a bit stronger…Tequila! lol!
Congrats, Evaine! I bet you can tell a world of difference!
I am joinging you gals in the “happy hour” results show, only at my house, it’s pomegranate martinis on tap!
I also believe Elisabetta will be going. I think Chaz has enough fans to muddle through another couple of weeks, and like Vogue, I found Elisabetta’s attitude last night, especially after her dance, to be appalling. Poor Val!
I suspect it will be Eisabetta going home. Can’t see her having the fan base.
I’m sure the DWTS producers would love the drama of Maks and Val in the bottom two. Of course, not necessarily the real bottom two. 😯
About the elimination….. Sounds like an old musical, “Anything Goes!”
Evaine, willpower, willpower, willpower…. YOU CAN DO IT! How about this…Take the $ that you’d spend on cigarettes, and put it aside, and then spend it on something for you, such as a ballroom dance lesson from your favorite dancer! Reach for the moon, and you may hit some stars on the way!
It did seem like Maks and Hope’s 19 scared a LOT of his fans into voting just for him instead of splitting votes like they may or may not have done last week (some openly did and some, like me, gave all to one of them). Elisabetta’s attitude was godawful in the rehearsal footage, and so she doesn’t exactly deserve to stay over some of the others.
I love J.R. – he has it all – the moves – the personality – he will go all the way.
OH!!!!
Yes, I can TOTALLY see the producers pitting the ChmerBrothers against each other in a faux bottom 2….. They’ve done it before.
Season 5, they pit Hough siblings against each other.
Season 7, they pit Ballas father/son against each other.
No doubt, they WILL put ChmerBrothers in the red light this season.
Evaine, as a former 1 plus pack a day smoker, I want to tell you to hang strong! I know this show is enough to drive anyone to smoke but think of the consequences. If you light up now, what with the way this season is already going, you’ll be through a carton before next Tuesday. Then what? 🙂
Yeah, let’s have Heidi do Tequila and watch Heidi break out in hives. They don’t itch, so I could do it. 🙂 Used to scare the shit out of my friends when I would go all blotchy red after getting something with Tequila in it. 🙂
Pomegranet Martinis…ummmmm. Yum.
Thanks for the support guys!! I still have cravings, but they only last a minute or so and then I’m good. My addiction these days seems to be Skittles of all things and you had better believe that I’m going out today to stock up before the show tonight!
Skittles and vodka – interesting!
I’ve said here before that in the first weeks of competition, I tend to scatter my votes about to my favorites, but last night, my girl Anna didn’t get any of my votes, nor did young Mark, everything went to Maks. Worried? Me? Oh you betcha!!!
I bet (hope) that Rob leaves tonight… heheheh =ps
I need to sand a patch on my bedroom wall and paint it tonight, the big question is should I watch the show or watch the paint dry??? Any advice??
Evaine good for you, you can do it. I smoked for 23 years and I managed to kick it.
Glad that mediocre mess of this week is over. Biting all my nails thinking about tonight. So I’ll focus on next week. I’ve heard in some post dance interviews that 1 of the dances was the Rumba. Has anyone heard what the 2nd dance will be? With this crop of celebs I think Rumba is up their alley. A much slower dance…really will come down to technique.
Whoever said that the judges had gotten a little tipsy before the show, I’m with you! JR and (IMO) Hope were both underscored, Ricki and Derek (as much as I love them) and Nancy and Tristan were overscored. The judging is inconsistent, and it PISSES ME OFF. If Maks goes home, I will tweet angry tweets all night, because I want him to win this thing with Hope more than anything (although I don’t really wanna know how slim those chances are…). My guess is that it’s going to be Rob or Elizabetta…not sure. I love Val, but the absence of the vote splitting will make me feel better. I’ll vote for him when Maks wins 🙂
@ Lisa C – I think I would watch the paint dry – it’s easier on the blood pressure than watching the inanity (is that a word?) of the judges in trying to do what the producers seem to want. I think Len was told to be grumpy at the slightest pretext and it was even more than he could handle to be negative all the time, at least I hope that was the case. JR finishes one of the best jives ever seen on the show to a scowl on Len’s face, and Carrie Ann long ago lost the battle on calling lifts consistently, she does whatever strikes her at the moment. I thought DWTS was supposed to be about entertainment – and JR and Karina certainly delivered, and deserved top place. For last, Chaz needs to go for health reasons.
Sara, Maks is almost certainly not going to win this thing. I honestly think that it’s JR’s to lose at this point, with some stiff competition from Chynna, Ricki and MAYBE Kristin, if she can find a personality out there somewhere. Unless something drastic happens, I don’t think Hope is in the running. At all. But it’s still early. Problem is, these judges tend to form opinions early and then you are stuck in that box for good. See Ralph Macchio.
As for the scoring, I really think the only ones that were off were JR and Nancy, too low and too high respectively. A 23 for Ricki (and especially Derek) is not what I would call a great score, it just happened to be the high score in a bunch of low scores. JR was low by probably 3 points. No one would be saying a word about Ricki’s score if JR had been scored appropriately. But he wasn’t.
@Toni – Next week is “personal storytelling” week, so the dances are all a mixed bag. Although it seemed like a lot of the dances from last season were rumbas and waltzes, so there could be more than one couple doing a specific dance.
I’ve heard the rumor of the Argentine Tango and Rumba being next week. Not sure I like the idea of the AT done so early…like the jive. Both are too intricate and detailed for beginners. Like I said though, it’s just a rumor I’ve heard bandied about. We shall see…
I kind of hope it’s Chaz – his injuries and stamina can’t make the competition much fun. Plus Lacey looked resigned to having her season end soon. But, I don’t think Elisabetta is not connecting with the audience at all, so it might be her time to go tonight.
I wouldn’t mind if it was David, though. I just don’t enjoy watching him that much.
My gut tells me it’s gonna be Elisabetta going home as, amongst a group of mostly mediocre dancers, she has the worst attitude and scarcest fanbase (and that the producers won’t let the drama of having it come down to the two Chermkovskiy brothers tonight).
After that can see Chaz and Rob going in short order…unless Cher’s fans are voting in droves.
As Courtney said, it’s a theme week (Personal story – important moment in your life) next week and will likely have several different dances, not just two. I’ve also heard that only the first two weeks were limited to two dances – all the other weeks have several because of all the themes.
Ricki has the rumba, which actually annoys me. What the hell is it getting three harder dances in a row??
@Lee – You’re right, Len was grumpy last night from the get-go. I wonder if his Viagra ran out, all the blood rushed back to his head, and gave him a migraine? 😉
Karina said she & JR have a “lovely tribute” dance planned for next week, so if it’s “personal storytelling” week, I would think only a slow waltz or possibly foxtrot would fit the bill for them. Can’t imagine a tribute done to rumba or Arg. tango.
David is the one I’d <i<prefer to see eliminated tonight. Something about him gets on my last nerve. I thought his edginess would suit the jive pretty well, and it started out ok – but by midpoint, he was just walking through the steps. imo. I think his energy is good for about 60 seconds max and then he burns himself out.
Kinda sad that Elisabetta’s package gave everyone the impression of bitchiness. I thought she was trying hard to contain her emotions and cover up tears. I like Val, but Eli would probably have done better with a partner who had more experience in teaching and, maybe, who had a little less to prove. Someone who was more sensitive, like Louis; or pure fun, like Derek. I just feel bad for her.
I’ve re-watched all the dances today and feel a little kinder toward some and less so to others. One thing remains the same: JR rocked the jive and deserved at least one 9. By far the best of the night. Not being Carrie Ann, I couldn’t see a flaw in it.
Hope it is Elisabetta – think that the show wouldn’t miss her at all. Personally don’t mind if David or Rob goes – but think Cheryl’s votes will save a much improved Rob this week.
Don’t think Derek was overscored on the basis of last night – they were much better than Nancy, Elisabetta and Chynna. Also think Hope was underscored – that’s the danger of going first I guess. JR deserved nines I would say, but think the judges were scared to make him too good too early. He should definitely have been top though – and going last that should have been easy enough to sort out.
I really don’t like all these ‘story’ weeks – I like it when lots do the same dances so it is easier to compare. Agree about the rumba – not sure that’s going to really be Ricki and Derek’s dance – but think that they should be safe while there are weaker dancers so it might be quite good to get it out of the way.
Allegedly, JR has the rumba as well. So that makes 3 weeks now where (arguably) the 2 best dancers this season have the exact same dances each week. Interesting. Although I expect we’ll see a lot of rumbas next week – the slow, sappy songs everyone seems to pick for their “personal story” dance always seem best-suited to rumba.
I think Len needs a mega dose of fiber – all the flying back and forth seems to have created a stoppage
@ Courtney – JR has rumba? Darn, I’d have loved to see him & Karina do a really sensual rumba – which it won’t be if it’s their tribute to the military.
For personal story week, doesn’t each star pick his/her story, after which a matching dance style is chosen to portray that story? I guess I’m thinking that Ricki didn’t get assigned another hard dance directly, but rather that the style was (unfortunately) the one that best fit the story she chose. But I agree with an earlier comment that it may be better to get the harder styles done now when there are still less capable dancers.
Oh cripes! Personal story week. Let’s get ready to rumba for the dead…again. 🙄 I’m with Shep, I wanted to see JR and Karina do a proper sensual rumba.
I swear all these theme weeks are taking away from the inherent themes of the dances themselves. If TPTB think all the viewers are dying to know some intimate touching detail from the celebs’ past, make them do a package instead of ruining the dances.
Just thinking about it gives me a cramp :\
OK, moving on.
I have a serious question for those who are more savvy about dancing. We’ve been griping that the Jive and Quickstep are too difficult for beginners. Some said the Viennese Waltz was also not a beginner dance. Now the Argentine Tango has been mentioned as too hard for this early in the season. If all this is true, is Foxtrot relatively easy? How about Waltz? And where do Tango, Samba, and Paso fall in the hierarchy?
I watched last night with someone who has never seen the show and doesn’t know anything about ballroom or latin. Interesting comment, “You know, depending on the dance, a slower pace and long dress or jacket can really hide poor skills.” Yeah, exactly. I thinks it’s really hard to start off with a fast-paced dance that also calls for skin tight/short costumes. Not a level playing field.
@Cidra – I’ll go into more detail in my jive post, but I’d say the two easiest dances are the cha-cha & waltz – they’re typically the first 2 taught to a beginner. Regular tango is also fairly easy; in real life, American foxtrot is pretty easy & international foxtrot is insanely difficult, but in the context of DWTS, it’s pretty fakeable, as is paso doble. AT is difficult in that it’s really dissimilar to any of the ballroom & Latin dances, & relies heavily on footwork. Salsa is easier as well. I’d say Viennese waltz, jive, samba, & more advanced quickstep figures are the harder dances.
FWIW, I remember hearing Cheryl Burke saying that samba is the most difficult for the celebs to pick up.
Thanks Sally and Courtney (look forward to your jive post). I can definitely see why AT is a toughie, but when it’s done well, it’s breathtaking and I love it! Paso technique might not be too hard, but from what I’ve seen getting the attitude right is tricky for celebs. Without the attitude it often falls flat (and ends up looking silly). Maybe they should bring back Salsa, have them do it week two, eliminate either Jive or Samba and do the one they keep later in the season. Seems fair to me.
Courtney, your insights into the various dances are so helpful. Thank you for the discussion of quickstep vs jive in the other thread, too. 🙂
JR/Karina’s dance was by far the best!
argh some weeks i just really don’t want to see anyone going home!!!
rob – how lovely to see him really starting to show his vulnerable side (and not his overcompensating) and then to see him really start to overcome that and settle into balance – if he keeps this up he really has a chance to go all the way – and even better, to really discover himself and get out from under the shadow of his family. So lovely to see Bruce taking such real delight and pride in him (kris does but hers was way overshadowed by her image consciousness) Pay attention to bruce a little more Rob. Cheryl is doing such a great job and wasn’t she so proud to be able to show what she knows is in him?
Carson – What an outfit and what a performance. Who else could have pulled that outfit off so well (val i drool over ya but those white specs? purleeze). At times such an improvement in his body connectedness. He really does look like his body is made of lego most of the time – each piece absolutley separate, stiff and moving independently. Dyspraxia anyone? and yet at times they were coming together so well – a testament to his hard work and determination. I really want to see him carry on – not just for the fun and joi de vivre but to see him really connect with his body and be able to allow the normal fluidity of movement so many of us take for granted
ricky – for a week 2 jive – bloody good despite its faults. If they make it to the final i really hope they do this and show what it can be and how improved they are. Derek really does showcase his partners and give them confidence in themselves! Fantastic outfit helped too!!
chas – oh i really hope chas doesn’t go home this week! i really do know what he is going through with his knees and ankles – Lacey’s surprise when she felt it from the outside was a true reflection – and inside is so much worse. And i think he still has so much to give on so many levels – and better dances too!! What a great partnership!! And isn’t it showcasing Lacey as a fully rounded person? – i bet many hearts are softening towards her too Chas (and the edits) really is fetching out the best in her too!!
nancy – ah i just love these two – and the dancing and performance on the floor is improving – if they can keep in i just see it getting better and better
jr – may not have had the fan base to start – but that shot up on his firat intro and will keep on growing. The full package or what? heartbreaking story, heart mending story And i can’t be the only one who finds him SOOOO attractive – on every level. And he can dance and he doesn’t perform – he just IS. Loved loved loved the dance but the judges are right – it was more lindy hop than Jive – C’mon katrina don’t blow it by doing a Mark on us – not by outdancing your partner cos JR matched you all the way – but in your choice of choreography
and a shout out to Brooke finally starting to be a presenter and not a clothes horse!!
and for ease of finding the dances on you tube – all here on one playlist http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLB466BAA73A5443D2&feature