DWTS Season 13, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers

 

Ya know, I almost give up on trying to predict what will happen – my record is for crap this season. :-) I’m in a slump. And this week is worse than most because there is a huge spread between top and bottom, but no spread at all in the lower tier of dancers. Add in the fact that Chynna blanked completely and doesn’t likely have the passionate fanbase as some of the others and you’ve got troubles.

That said – there is such a thing as a pity vote and she’s likely to get it. I actually was a bit worried about Ricki and JR – a whole bunch of pissed off voters voting for the lower level people could mean trouble for them as well. Unlike Courtney, I didn’t get outraged at JR’s scores – I just wasn’t overly impressed with JR’s dance. That said, of course, I think the 8 was ridiculous. But when you have a 20 and a bunch of 21’s, does that one point for JR really matter? Nah, probably not. I did watch the dance again and revised my opinion somewhat – lovely dance. The 8 is still ridiculous. I wonder if he set the bar too high for CAI or if she’s just off her meds. We’ll see next week if he’s back in business.

I should learn by now that when Derek gets that freaked out look on his face upon hearing his music it generally means he’s going to rise to the occasion. :-) Two 10s though? One would have been enough, just because it started a tad rough. But, damn, over all that was impressive. Rather worried that all those people raving on twitter over the dance didn’t vote.

I also have to give major props to Hope and Maks – FINALLY a lovely dance that I can get behind. Well done – very sweet.  And better than Rob and David by more than what the scores indicated.  Not sure what Len is on about unless he’s afraid that she’s not getting the votes because up to now she wasn’t connecting.

Anyway…

Let’s look at the numbers.

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Ricki 29 13.88
2. JR 26 12.44
3. Hope 24 11.48
3. Rob 24 11.48
5. David 23 11
6. Chynna 21 10.05
6. Chaz 21 10.05
6. Nancy 21 10.05
9. Carson 20 9.57

:::whines::: This is hard. :-) 

People may think I’m crazy, but I’m a bit paranoid about Ricki and Derek this week. Mainly because they’re my favorites, along with JR (and Carson :-) ), but even more so because they’ve been doing consistently well, score-wise.  And no matter how many times a Kristen gets voted off too soon, there are still people that think someone is guaranteed safety. Or they feel like they have to “vindicate” JR, or “save” Chynna. The end result is the same if Ricki, JR or Chynna gets voted off – lesser dancers stick around and the overall quality of dancing is decreased. The poor or inconsistent dancers can only hold my attention for so long. Then people complain that all the shitty dancers are sticking around.  It’s a vicious cycle.  For my own piece of mind, I looked at the numbers for both Ricki and JR – something I might not ordinarily address.  So what would it take for Ricki to be eliminated?  ALL of the dancers would have to get significantly more votes than her, by the following margins:

–          Carson would have to get 43,100 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Chynna would have to get 38,280 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Chaz would have to get 38,280 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Nancy would have to get 38,280 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          David would have to get 28,710 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Hope and Rob would BOTH have to get 24,000 more votes per million votes cast; AND

–          JR would have to get 13,360 more votes per million votes cast than Ricki.

Okay, I feel marginally better. Some of those people could be getting those kind of votes, but not all of them. Chynna, for one, is not getting 38k more votes than Ricki. I’m not inclined to believe that Nancy or Hope are getting those votes either, but you never know. People are still complacent. I even had a Derek fan ask me if she had to vote. Which of course made me want to scream.

Let’s look at JR too, just to ease the minds of those convinced he’s the next Ralph Macchio.  For JR to be eliminated, ALL of the following would have to happen:

–          Carson would have to get 28,710 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Chynna would have to get 24,000 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Chaz would have to get 24,000 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Nancy would have to get 24,000 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          David would have to get 14,400 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Hope and Rob would BOTH have to get 9,600 more votes per million votes cast than JR.

Again, a lot of these are possible, but I think most are unlikely. Chynna might get the sympathy votes, but I don’t see Chaz, Nancy or David getting the votes to put him out. Remember, it only takes ONE person not getting the votes.

So, who is in the real danger zone?  Well, Carson is the low man on the totem pole, let’s take a look at what he needs to stick around.  If any ONE of the following happens, he’s safe:

–          Carson gets 4,800 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Chynna, Chaz or Nancy, OR;

–          Carson gets 14,400 more votes per million votes cast than David, OR;

–          Carson gets 19,200 more votes per million votes cast than Hope OR Rob.

Now, I can certainly see Carson making it another week in this scenario. But are people getting tired of him? I don’t see it, but then I love him.  I certainly think he can get more votes than either Chynna or Nancy, and maybe Chaz.  I honestly don’t know if he’s getting the votes to pass David, Hope and Rob – but he only needs to pass one person.

So, let’s say that Carson goes all out and is just killing it in the votes department. The next rung of the scoring ladder is where it gets interesting – and it’s what makes this such a difficult call.  Chynna, Chaz and Nancy, oh boy.  You saw that Carson needs less than 5,000 votes. But you also saw that Chynna just froze horribly. I think that has a tendency to rally people behind you, BUT there are other factors here; people mad that Carson was underscored, people rooting for Chaz plus Cher’s fans, people revenge voting for Hope and/or JR…the list goes on. That’s what makes this season challenging – the show isn’t any different, they just have a cast made up of likable underdogs which makes it scary for those who really aren’t perceived as underdogs – like Chynna, JR and Ricki, and to a lesser extent Hope.  So, what does Chynna have to have to stick around, since she’s the one I’m most concerned about?  ONE of the following:

–          Carson doesn’t get the 4,800 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;

–          She gets ONE more vote per million votes cast than either Chaz or Nancy, OR;

–          She gets 9,600 more votes per million votes cast than David, OR;

–          She gets 14,400 more votes per million votes cast than either Hope or Rob.

Hmmm…I think Carson is getting the votes. And is Chynna beating Chaz or Nancy even by a vote or are they getting the votes too?? And what about David? He was in the bottom 2 two weeks ago. Dang, this is impossible to call. Obviously, just replace Chynna’s name with either Chaz or Nancy to see what it takes for them to stay.

Since I was just wondering about David…let’s pretend that Carson, Chynna, Chaz and Nancy all have people behind them. When does David get into trouble? What would have to happen for him to go home?  Well, all of the following:

–          Carson gets 14,400 more votes per million votes cast than David, AND;

–          Chaz, Nancy and Chynna ALL get 9,600 more votes per million votes cast than David.

Now, see – that doesn’t seem impossible.  Not to me, anyway. :::sigh::: This is hard. I don’t want to play anymore. :-)  Okay, let’s start with who I think is 99% safe: Ricki, JR, and Hope.  I give Rob about an 85% chance of being safe.  That leaves us with Carson, Chynna, Chaz, Nancy and David.  And I honestly believe that Carson is getting the votes based on nothing more than personality, so mark him off the list.

That brings us to Chynna, Chaz, Nancy and David – all four of which will be called safe early in the show because the producers are taunting me at this point.  :-) But, I’m going down this path anyway, because it seems most logical to me.  Once again, I’m going to say that Chaz is safe. I think he’s got one more week in him because he’s the underdog of all underdogs.  Chynna, Nancy or David – pick one.

Going out on a limb…I can’t think of any reasons why David might be safe.  Nancy has Tristan. Chynna has the sympathy vote. Chaz is the underdog with his mamma in the audience, and Carson is Carson. Ricki killed it in a very talked about dance and JR is much loved. Rob?? Well, Rob and Nancy kinda faded into the woodwork last night but I think David had the bigger fade.

I think David’s time might be up.  And now that I’ve said that, someone odd will go home. Hopefully all those raving about Ricki and JR actually voted for them.

Hold me, iz scared. :-(