Well, well, well…another interesting night. Let me take this opportunity to point out that Courtney and I were right on target with the storyboarding we would see this week. I’m right so rarely this season that I have to capitalize when I am. It’s only a shame that Hope couldn’t take advantage of a golden opportunity. We pretty much figured that they were going to knock Ricki down a few pegs (and neither Derek nor Ricki seemed to mind this overly much), allowing JR and Hope to spring to the top – only Hope didn’t capitalize on it. The result was a bloated score on one of the worse dances of the night…and that’s saying something!! We also tried telling people that they weren’t turning JR into Ralph Macchio – they’re making this show into a horserace if it kills them. I still think it’s his to lose.
I also have to ask – Carrie Ann, in what freakin’ universe do you give the same score to Rob Kardashian as you do JR?? You’re losing what credibility you had, sweetheart. At least you don’t have far to fall. And you all give the exact same score to a couple who looked great in hold and only out of time on the Running Rabbit as you gave a couple who didn’t look great either in hold or out – and who was more heavily, substantively criticized. Come on, gang – you’re being pathetically transparent. You want to make sure that Hope sticks around another couple weeks, try giving Carson and Chaz scores THEY actually deserve, instead of the entertainment value score. Nancy too, for that matter – bad news for her is that I keep forgetting she’s there.
Let’s look at the numbers.
The Judges Scores and Percentages
This is another interesting week because I’m just not sure that there are any Chynnas or Kristins around anymore – those people who you sense don’t really have a fanbase to speak of, thereby getting knocked out by lesser dancers. I suppose that could be Hope or Nancy….but neither one of them is a really great dancer, so would it be surprising if they got knocked out by a sentimental favorite and/or a hilariously flamboyant gay man who everyone seems to adore?? Not really. It’s much more dangerous to be boring or annoying than it is to be a bad dancer with a great story or hilarious attitude. I think the only elimination that would shock me at this point would be JR, mainly because he’s got the story. I would be surprised by Ricki, because from everything I’ve seen she’s got a fanbase of her own in addition to Derek’s, but not shocked. Then again, part of me wonders if those producers who see the voting also are the ones handing out the dances/music. Give them a crappy song cuz they’re getting plenty of votes? Or are they just stupid?? Tough call. When Louis says you got a bad foxtrot song, you know you’re in trouble.
Pretty big difference this week, for Carson. He has a lot more work to do to stick around than he has ever had to do before. The last three weeks he’s needed LESS than 5k to stick around. This week will be a true test of Carson’s fanbase, as he’s never needed this many votes to beat just one person before. What does he need to stay?? ONE of the following:
- Carson needs 10,650 more votes per million votes cast than Chaz, OR;
- Carson needs 16k more votes per million votes cast than Nancy, OR;
- Carson needs 26,600 more votes per million votes cast than Ricki OR Hope, OR;
- Carson needs 32k more votes per million votes cast than David OR Rob, OR;
- Carson needs 47,900 more votes per million votes cast than JR
The tough question is….can he do it? Carson and Chaz are my problem children this season as I have no clear idea of what kind of voting fanbase they might have. I suspected that Chynna and Kristin didn’t have big voting blocks, although I expected them to stick around longer than what they did. A combination of poor dancing and big personalities didn’t make it hugely shocking that Elisabetta, Chynna and Kristin got the boot when they did. But what now?? We still have the big personalities, the big stories and we have some good dancers. The question you have to ask is – who has none of the above, in terms of this show? Well, Hope and Nancy, in my opinion. But do Carson and Chaz have the juice to get those votes? That’s the part I’m not clear about. Unlike Carson, Chaz HAS needed serious votes to stick before; he only needed one more vote than Chynna, but he needed 25k more than Kristen. That could only mean that no one was voting for Kristen, though.
What does Chaz need to stay around? Well, if Carson fails to get that 10k+ votes, he’s good to go. Let’s say that Carson gets the votes, enough to beat even Ricki – that means Chaz needs ONE of the following things to happen:
- Chaz needs 5,320 more votes per million votes cast than Nancy, OR;
- Chaz needs 16k more votes per million votes cast than either Hope OR Ricki, OR;
- Chaz needs 21,300 more votes per million votes cast than either Rob OR David.
So what do you think the odds are that Chaz and Carson are splitting a voting fanbase?? Week 5 is about the time that this sort of thing would become evident. Beats me. I see lots and lots of people thinking that Nancy is going home – I’m really not sure about that, and no, it’s not because I think Tristan suddenly has an enormous fanbase. It’s Nancy that has the fanbase, the only question is, is it voting enough to keep her safe from Chaz and Carson? Well, Chaz only needs 5,400 votes to pass her so that’s a bit nerve wracking, but can Carson get 16k?? For Nancy to stick around, she needs ONE of the following to happen:
- Nancy needs Chaz to NOT get 5,320 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
- Nancy needs Carson to NOT get 16k more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
- She needs to get 10,650 more votes per million votes cast than either Hope OR Ricki, OR;
- She needs to get 16k more votes per million votes cast than either Rob or David.
Well. I just don’t know that Carson is getting that 16k. And if he is, is Nancy getting the votes to pass Ricki or Hope? I think Hope yes, Ricki no. What would cause Hope (or Ricki) to be the one to leave? ALL of the following would have to happen:
- Carson gets 26,600 more votes per million votes cast than ONE of them, AND;
- Chaz gets 16,000 more votes per million votes cast than ONE of them, AND;
- Nancy gets 10,650 more votes per million votes cast than one of them, AND;
- Ricki gets ONE more vote per million votes cast than Hope does, or vice versa.
Now, I don’t REALLY believe that Ricki is in jeopardy, although I could be in for a shock. But Hope? That 26,600 votes that Carson needs sure sounds like a pretty high number and he’s never had to get that many before, although that doesn’t mean he hasn’t.
Wow. Tough call. I’m going to say that, by virtue of the numbers Carson needs, that Rob, David and JR are safe. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Drickilous fans have NOT been lulled into complacency by being at the top of the leaderboard and being called safe first all the time, and that Ricki is safe also. That leaves us with Hope, Nancy, Carson and Chaz. My gut is saying that Nancy and Chaz are going to be safe – that’s based on nothing more than the feeling that Carson can’t get those numbers and Hope’s time has run out. Hope is just not coming across well in the package and she’s really not that great of a dancer.
Then again, Nancy’s packages haven’t been all that either, and most viewers don’t see everything that we do with her and Tristan. :::sigh::: And her numbers don’t give her that much safety. Again, we have the problem children making me very uncertain. Chaz and Carson.
But at the end of the day, my brain is shouting at me that Carson is the one going home. Yes, my brain has had a crappy record this season – but in seasons past I’ve done well. Sooner or later I’ve got to get back on track…right?
Who will they put in jeopardy?? If it’s Carson going home, I would bet Carson, Nancy and Hope. If it’s Hope, I would bet Carson, Hope and Ricki, with Hope and Ricki as the last two standing before they pull the trigger.
We’ll see. :-)