DWTS Season 13, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers
Well, well, well…another interesting night. Let me take this opportunity to point out that Courtney and I were right on target with the storyboarding we would see this week. 
I’m right so rarely this season that I have to capitalize when I am. It’s only a shame that Hope couldn’t take advantage of a golden opportunity. We pretty much figured that they were going to knock Ricki down a few pegs (and neither Derek nor Ricki seemed to mind this overly much), allowing JR and Hope to spring to the top – only Hope didn’t capitalize on it. The result was a bloated score on one of the worse dances of the night…and that’s saying something!! We also tried telling people that they weren’t turning JR into Ralph Macchio – they’re making this show into a horserace if it kills them. I still think it’s his to lose.
I also have to ask – Carrie Ann, in what freakin’ universe do you give the same score to Rob Kardashian as you do JR?? You’re losing what credibility you had, sweetheart. At least you don’t have far to fall. And you all give the exact same score to a couple who looked great in hold and only out of time on the Running Rabbit as you gave a couple who didn’t look great either in hold or out – and who was more heavily, substantively criticized. Come on, gang – you’re being pathetically transparent. You want to make sure that Hope sticks around another couple weeks, try giving Carson and Chaz scores THEY actually deserve, instead of the entertainment value score. Nancy too, for that matter – bad news for her is that I keep forgetting she’s there.
Anyway…
Let’s look at the numbers.
The Judges Scores and Percentages
| Place | Celebrity | Score | Percentage |
| 1. | JR | 29 | 14.89 |
| 2. | Rob | 25 | 13.3 |
| 2. | David | 25 | 13.3 |
| 4. | Ricki | 24 | 12.77 |
| 4. | Hope | 24 | 12.77 |
| 6. | Nancy | 22 | 11.7 |
| 7. | Chaz | 21 | 11.17 |
| 8. | Carson | 19 | 10.11 |
This is another interesting week because I’m just not sure that there are any Chynnas or Kristins around anymore – those people who you sense don’t really have a fanbase to speak of, thereby getting knocked out by lesser dancers. I suppose that could be Hope or Nancy….but neither one of them is a really great dancer, so would it be surprising if they got knocked out by a sentimental favorite and/or a hilariously flamboyant gay man who everyone seems to adore?? Not really. It’s much more dangerous to be boring or annoying than it is to be a bad dancer with a great story or hilarious attitude. I think the only elimination that would shock me at this point would be JR, mainly because he’s got the story. I would be surprised by Ricki, because from everything I’ve seen she’s got a fanbase of her own in addition to Derek’s, but not shocked. Then again, part of me wonders if those producers who see the voting also are the ones handing out the dances/music. Give them a crappy song cuz they’re getting plenty of votes? Or are they just stupid?? Tough call. When Louis says you got a bad foxtrot song, you know you’re in trouble.
Pretty big difference this week, for Carson. He has a lot more work to do to stick around than he has ever had to do before. The last three weeks he’s needed LESS than 5k to stick around. This week will be a true test of Carson’s fanbase, as he’s never needed this many votes to beat just one person before. What does he need to stay?? ONE of the following:
- Carson needs 10,650 more votes per million votes cast than Chaz, OR;
- Carson needs 16k more votes per million votes cast than Nancy, OR;
- Carson needs 26,600 more votes per million votes cast than Ricki OR Hope, OR;
- Carson needs 32k more votes per million votes cast than David OR Rob, OR;
- Carson needs 47,900 more votes per million votes cast than JR
The tough question is….can he do it? Carson and Chaz are my problem children this season as I have no clear idea of what kind of voting fanbase they might have. I suspected that Chynna and Kristin didn’t have big voting blocks, although I expected them to stick around longer than what they did. A combination of poor dancing and big personalities didn’t make it hugely shocking that Elisabetta, Chynna and Kristin got the boot when they did. But what now?? We still have the big personalities, the big stories and we have some good dancers. The question you have to ask is – who has none of the above, in terms of this show? Well, Hope and Nancy, in my opinion. But do Carson and Chaz have the juice to get those votes? That’s the part I’m not clear about. Unlike Carson, Chaz HAS needed serious votes to stick before; he only needed one more vote than Chynna, but he needed 25k more than Kristen. That could only mean that no one was voting for Kristen, though.
What does Chaz need to stay around? Well, if Carson fails to get that 10k+ votes, he’s good to go. Let’s say that Carson gets the votes, enough to beat even Ricki – that means Chaz needs ONE of the following things to happen:
- Chaz needs 5,320 more votes per million votes cast than Nancy, OR;
- Chaz needs 16k more votes per million votes cast than either Hope OR Ricki, OR;
- Chaz needs 21,300 more votes per million votes cast than either Rob OR David.
So what do you think the odds are that Chaz and Carson are splitting a voting fanbase?? Week 5 is about the time that this sort of thing would become evident. Beats me. I see lots and lots of people thinking that Nancy is going home – I’m really not sure about that, and no, it’s not because I think Tristan suddenly has an enormous fanbase. It’s Nancy that has the fanbase, the only question is, is it voting enough to keep her safe from Chaz and Carson? Well, Chaz only needs 5,400 votes to pass her so that’s a bit nerve wracking, but can Carson get 16k?? For Nancy to stick around, she needs ONE of the following to happen:
- Nancy needs Chaz to NOT get 5,320 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
- Nancy needs Carson to NOT get 16k more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
- She needs to get 10,650 more votes per million votes cast than either Hope OR Ricki, OR;
- She needs to get 16k more votes per million votes cast than either Rob or David.
Well. I just don’t know that Carson is getting that 16k. And if he is, is Nancy getting the votes to pass Ricki or Hope? I think Hope yes, Ricki no. What would cause Hope (or Ricki) to be the one to leave? ALL of the following would have to happen:
- Carson gets 26,600 more votes per million votes cast than ONE of them, AND;
- Chaz gets 16,000 more votes per million votes cast than ONE of them, AND;
- Nancy gets 10,650 more votes per million votes cast than one of them, AND;
- Ricki gets ONE more vote per million votes cast than Hope does, or vice versa.
Now, I don’t REALLY believe that Ricki is in jeopardy, although I could be in for a shock. But Hope? That 26,600 votes that Carson needs sure sounds like a pretty high number and he’s never had to get that many before, although that doesn’t mean he hasn’t.
Wow. Tough call. I’m going to say that, by virtue of the numbers Carson needs, that Rob, David and JR are safe. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Drickilous fans have NOT been lulled into complacency by being at the top of the leaderboard and being called safe first all the time, and that Ricki is safe also. That leaves us with Hope, Nancy, Carson and Chaz. My gut is saying that Nancy and Chaz are going to be safe – that’s based on nothing more than the feeling that Carson can’t get those numbers and Hope’s time has run out. Hope is just not coming across well in the package and she’s really not that great of a dancer.
Then again, Nancy’s packages haven’t been all that either, and most viewers don’t see everything that we do with her and Tristan. :::sigh::: And her numbers don’t give her that much safety. Again, we have the problem children making me very uncertain. Chaz and Carson.
But at the end of the day, my brain is shouting at me that Carson is the one going home. Yes, my brain has had a crappy record this season – but in seasons past I’ve done well. Sooner or later I’ve got to get back on track…right?
Who will they put in jeopardy?? If it’s Carson going home, I would bet Carson, Nancy and Hope. If it’s Hope, I would bet Carson, Hope and Ricki, with Hope and Ricki as the last two standing before they pull the trigger.
We’ll see. :-)
Great job with the numbers..my head is spinning. I think you are right, Hope has been given some chances she hasn’t capitalized on. IMO she needs to completely surrender to the dance and especially her partner. I know she respects him( begrudgingly) but she needs to treat him like a team mate, not just a coach. Show the love even when you don’t feel it. That’s what the judges and fans want to see. She just can’t seem to step out of her comfort zone but if she would just let herself fall under Maks’s spell..just for the show..she will connect better with the audience. That is if she sticks around after tonight. I fear it very well could be her going. Bummer!! The expectations of her before the season began were extremely high, however.
CAI claims that she grades each celeb based on their own standard and their improvement from week to week, rather than always comparative to the other celebs. That’s the only possible explanation for her giving JR and Rob the same score. JR’s dance was the dance of the night (if not the season so far) and in relative terms deserved the 10 Bruno gave him (especially if Rob got a 9). I will say that I have been enjoying Rob’s dances (except for last week’s Superman) and I’d rather see him remain longer than Nancy, Carson and Chaz.
Carson’s dance was the worst of the night, and I think he and Anna knew it – that’s why they were begging so hard for the voters to save them – they knew they weren’t good. I personally don’t find Carson’s dance numbers so entertaining (other than the very 1st dance), just because they are so bad and he’s not even tryng to develop/improve his technique. His video packages and his post-dance one-liners are very entertaining and I would miss those, but we’re coming on week 6, it’s almost half-way through the show, and the better dancers should be the ones to stay. Carson, Chaz and Nancy should be the ones to go next. Then it would be a toss-up between Rob and Hope depending on which of them keeps listening, working and improving.
Hope and Maks were just okay-Maks looked quite subdued after the dance-I don’t think he knew how the judges were going to score them and I think he was relieved to get 8′s across the board. I get the feeling Hope has made up her mind on how she’s going to dance, and isn’t going to listen to or change any more for either Maks or the judges. Obviously a shame, because we’ve seen how Maks can transform non-dancers (e.g., Brandy and Kirstie), but Hope won’t let herself be transformed into a dancer. And I don’t think she’ll miss dancing when she finally does get sent off – she’ll probably never dance again. Her pride might be wounded, but I think she’ll be more relieved to be done dancing (and Maks might be even more relieved). She’s certainly not the worst dancer, but she could be so much better if she would just relax and let Maks do for her what he’s done for so many before her (Laila Ali, Mel B., Brandy, Kirstie, for example). I don’t think Maks is enjoying this season as much as others before, for many reasons (as he alludes to in his recent blog) – I don’t think Hope inspires him, the judging is weird and better couples got voted off while worse couples have remained, there’s no really inspiring “ringer” couple, he’s been doing the show for so long now, Val got voted off early (and unjustly, to Maks’ way of thinking), he’s ready for new challenges, he’s ready to move to the next stage of his personal life, etc.
I just hope Maks and Derek don’t both leave the show at the same time. I know they’re 2 pros, but IMO they’re the 2 best and 2 most entertaining pros (choreography, looks, personality, relationship with their celebs), and the show would lose a certain appeal for me if they both go. Hopefully Val and Tristan can replace them in my heart, but these deep emotional bonds with the pros take time to develop -LOL.
I just feel the need to say that I don’t think Hope is being stubborn or prideful. I think she’s petrified. Petrified to show the vulnerability that one needs to show when one is out on the dance floor. And not just because she’s a world class athlete and feels like she has to be strong etc… I think it’s her own personality. Cranscape and others have said she’s an introvert, and I have to agree. She’s also a goalie and for those of you who have no experience with goal tenders in any sport – they are usually different, loner type people. I also think that, is she’s safe tonight, she’s going to have to do the hardest thing she’d ever have to do and give over that vulnerability or she’s going to be gone. But, yeah, I really think she’s scared to death.
Another great post, as always!
I have a sinking feeling about Hope. I’ve been wrong so many times before, so take that with a grain of salt (on the rim of your Margarita glass). Maksolo’s just not doing it for me. What I shame, I love Maks. But I can’t shake the feeling that we’re going to be saying adieu tonight.
Personal opinion, but I’d rather see what Chaz or Carson can bring to the dance floor next week than Hope or Rob, for that matter. I recognize that Chaz and Carson are 2 of the “worst” dancers left, but I’m more invested in their journey than I am in Hope’s, or Rob’s. Yes, Rob has improved a lot since week one, and on paper I should be gaga over Maks & Hope pairing. But it just ain’t so.
Honestly, they need to hire Carson. Don’t let him get away – he should be a roving reporter, or fashion reporter, Brooke’s side kick, anything! He is a DWTS treasure!!! He won’t make it much longer, but I plan to enjoy every minute of it! Carson + Broadway Theme Week = hilarity for sure! Just wish he could improve his technique, just a scootch
I think we made it seem like it was Hope’s week when in reality it was the opposite. Going first it’s very tough and she’s done it twice already. I really don’t think it helped her in any way to go first. The producers have done an excellent job of painting Hope in a negative way. Everything that I’ve seen since week 1 has been negative. Too bad because she is a very funny girl. I guess it’s hard to be positive after the judges put you down each time. But yet are so gracious with the other worse dancers.
Linde, how about getting rid of Brooke and hire Carson. I’m up for that.
Excellent as always, Heidi. Now that I see your numbers, I’m fearing for Carson the most. My boss thinks it’s Carson going home too. Just please don’t let it be Hope yet. But, I’m preparing myself just in case.
Heidi, I love reading your by the numbers even if it makes my head spin. I really wish your brain wasn’t screaming “Carson”.
What does your heart say?
Who wants to start a petition to replace Brook with Carson….
I agree with Evaine. Hope is scared and that’s why we are seeing this attitude she projects. To me, it’s fear – certainly not fun – we are sensing. Her defensiveness only seems to be increasing – not sure what it would take to let her put her goalie guard down. The nerves are getting to her even more, so it seem last night. I am surprised that Maks has not tried to bring in some outside assistance. I remember when Mel B was his partner – her asked an etiquette coach to come and show Mel how to do correct posture. Not sure how Hope would be receptive to anything at this point. It’s unfortunate because she doesn’t seem to be deriving anything from this experience thus far.
I’ll sign that petition.
I’m with you Amanda – Carson and Tom would be a hoot. And they could still dress Tom’s sidekick in outrageous sparkly outfits!
Katy, sign me up for the petition!
I’m sooooo tired of Brooke, I just tune her out. IT FEELS LIKE CRAP BROOKE, WHEN YOU BUST YOUR ASSETS AND GET BLASTED BY THE JUDGES. Now, can we move on?
Let me just say that I text voted last night for ricki and derek and I never had done that before because I don’t have unlimited texts and have to pay….. lol! I’d rather be safe than sorry and know that I did everything that I could do to keep my favorite couple in the game!
I dunno, Hope just let loose with a tweet that was….interesting. Not very self aware, is she? Yeah, Hope, those judges (who gave you three points MORE than you deserve) really suck, I agree with you. Not for the same reasons, however.
I dunno… I read that as defensive, telling herself that so she doesn’t start viewing herself as a failure which is not a good thing for a woman getting ready for an Olympics. Honestly? I thought so before the season started and I’m thinking so again – she should have done the show AFTER the Olympics.
I agree, Kernlady, Maks should have brought in someone to help her out… I’m thinking someone like Emmett Smith, Helio Castreneves, Hines Ward… an athlete who went to the top without any of the judging background that gymnasts and skaters have to help them deal.
Interesting numbers as always, Heidi, but you have JR with 29 points when they got 28. I know it won’t really affect your results, just thought I’d mention it.
Yeah Hope has been getting on my nerves. If she introverted her attitude comes off arrogant and all knowing and Maks is well Maks and his big ego is something were used to with him.
I agree, Evaine, with the timing for Hope being poor. Shawn Johnson and Evan Lysacek had just won Olympic Gold and were riding victory. Hope is facing another Olympics next summer. Apolo Anton Ohno – even though he was going for gold again, had a couple of years before his next Olympic competition. I don’t see how Hope can/should be anything but 100% in soccer mode at this point. Plus, if that shoulder injury is still an issue, staying in ballroom hold is not a good idea for several hours a day in practice.
Yeah, that’s a typo. The other numbers should be correct.
I said it before, but I really see Carson going home tonight. I wanted him to stay for two more weeks after Chaz and Nancy go home but I just don’t sense a great deal of buzz about him beyond diehard DWTS fans.
Should I read anything into the fact that the DWTS twitter asked a few hours ago for questions for Hope Solo that she will answer in a video to be posted later this week – as in would they be doing this if she were being kicked off the show tonight? Don’t know if they would hint at results like that so I’m wondering if there’s a precendent for this.
I’m actually pretty confident Hope’s not being kicked off tonight. I’ve had a pet theory that she’s getting a lot of votes and that actually explains ABC’s schizophrenic behaviour. Like they need to acknowledge she’s popular but that wasn’t in the master plan so they also try to pull her down in some ways. So she gets good dance orders! But harsh comments! Good Scores! Bad Packages! Ignored in the fluff videos! Saved at end of results hour (this is a goood thing)! No wonder her head seems to be spinning at times. Otherwise, I have no idea what ABC is trying to accomplish. For everyone else, the manipulations and storyboards are obvious. Want to kill off Carson? Give him the jive, a crap second spot, and low scores. Want to prop up David? Reveal he’s actually in the bottom two and then pimp spot next week. Want to prop up Rob? Let’s keep talking about how he’s improving every week and have packages dedicated to his newfound commitment to work. With Hope, I see little that makes sense so my pet theory is the thing I’ve come up with to explain it.
“and neither Derek nor Ricki seemed to mind this overly much” Derek understands, it’s a marathon, not a sprint. I don’t really know if there are three best dancers this season, but I’d like to see JR and Riki make it, probably Hope #3 with Rob an outside chance?? Horses for courses, Len would say. Would love to see new judges or four judges. I wish Gregory Hines were still alive-I think someone like him would be perfect.
Oh man, Gregory Hines! Now that man could dance! I loved him so much.
And that reminds me… is it just me, or has anyone else noticed Bruno toning down (*snort* I know, not the words one would associate with Bruno) the classlessness of his remarks this season?
“Hope won’t let herself be transformed into a dancer.” In contrast, I thought Natalie Coughlin was really trying to let go and be less still and did have dancing ability. I like here; wish she had done better.
“Hope won’t let herself be transformed into a dancer.” In contrast, I thought Natalie Coughlin was really trying to let go and be less stiff and she did have dancing ability. I liked her; wish she had done better. Where’s the edit function!
Great job Heidi! Tuesdays are really tough!! Nail bitters actually. I’m not sure who’s going home either but if I had to guess I’d say Chaz. Even though Carson had the lowest score he connects with the audience and viewers.
Good Luck to all the couples, especially Ricki/Derek!
Aww, I loved Gregory Hines and really miss seeing him dance. He was fabulous. My favorite tap dancer.
Instead of Catson replacing Brooke, can it be Julianne? Carson is the best male choice.
Not sure if there will be (or should be) a thread devoted to the judges. It’s bad when Tom has to keep breaking in to keep them on track. Last time I commented about them I joked about a few shots being downed before air time. Now I’m wondering what in the hell they are doing. If only it were drinking…they have become my least favorite part of the show.
@trenta Hope has seemed very arrogant with the rolling eyes and such. Her dancing hasn’t been stellar the last three weeks and is getting overscored. I hope she leaves and a lot of peeps I know want her to as well.
MaryS…I agree with you 100%. I just noticed that only 3 women are left on the competition…mmm…not sure I like that.
So, I’m wondering… I know it’s early-on in the season (I have to keep reminding myself that only 4 of 12 couples are gone as of right now), but what’s the impact (if any) of people who were voting for couples that are gone? I mean, I figure that a lot of the folks voting for Elisabetta are probably voting for Maks, but Kristin? Would those voters either give up, or start voting for… Rob? Just wondering – what’s everyone’s thoughts on this?
I think Elisabetta’s votes were part of Maks’s fans. Many people split their vote between the Chmerkovskiy brothers. She’s not there, all votes went back to Maks. My guess is that Kristin’s votes, because of the age appeal and reality TV viewers, are going to Rob. Chynna, well, maybe split between Rickie and Nancy. IMO.
I don’t want Carson to go (I don’t really want anyone to go at this point) but I have a feeling it’s gonna be him tonight.
If not Carson then Hope.
I think Carson is expecting to go tonight.
What is my heart saying?? My heart is saying that Derek looks cute with that hair, but like he’s lost a bit of fabulous muscle mass.
kidding. Kinda. My heart is kinda in a toss up between hope and Carson.
Mary, they’ve been doing that for a different couple every week. It’s just hope’s turn.
Love the numbers racket Heidi – I always feel like doing calculus right before the show, heh heh heh..Ooo, my head’s exploding…
Seriously though – going on gut feeling, and I’ve been wrong as often as not this season, I think Hope is going tonight. If nothing but for the simple fact that several times the viewers have kept very so-so dancers on long enough to make the final four (Ty Murray) or even the finals (Bristol Palin, although to be fair she improved every single week right up to the end, Monkey costumes not withstanding, and Marie Osmond). I think Carson and Chaz have that going for them, and so does David, who’s been very inconsistent thus far. But then again, I never thought Chynna would have been sent packing either; except for Sabrina Bryan, every time there’s been a major goof the viewers have come through for their favorite stars (Kelly Osbourne, Jennie Garth, Cristian de la Fuente) – and half of that was Kirstie Alley’s wardrobe endless malfunctions last season.
Oh well, it certainly won’t be a boring night, no matter what…
So Hope is in jeporady, Ricki is safe. So far those are the only 2 announced.
I’m worried if they keep calling Ricki and Derek safe 1st or 2nd every week people will think they’re safe and not vote.
Exactly, Red. Exactly the problem. Either she’s getting a ton of votes or they are just more worried about Hope and David, thinking Derek will carry her though.