DWTS Season 13, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers
Well, as I’ve said before – nights with two dances are dangerous. It’s much easier for a shocking elimination to happen, mainly because the higher the number of judges points handed out, the smaller the margin between dancers. It’s simple math, really. A 3 point spread that was a 2 percentage points spread, becomes a 1 percentage point spread. Danger, danger, Will Robinson!!
Other than the inherent dangers, it was a reasonably good night. My admiration for Derek Hough grew by leaps and bounds, fully justified by his behavior. Some fans wondered why TPTB would let Maks randomly trash Derek….turns out they didn’t. 🙂 You best watch yourself, they will get back at you eventually. Of course, Maks made it SO easy.
JR took a tumble and I have to say I agreed with their scoring, sadly. Really, I think the only problem scores of the night were Rob’s – he seemed a bit underscored – And Team Tango. A disaster Len?? Hardly. It was rather lackluster and lacking some pizzazz, but I think “disaster” is a good bit of hyperbole.
Let’s look at the numbers.
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Place | Celebrity | Score | Percentage |
1. | Ricki | 53 | 18.09 |
2. | Rob | 51 | 17.41 |
2. | Hope | 50 | 17.06 |
4. | JR | 48 | 16.38 |
4. | David | 47 | 16.04 |
6. | Nancy | 44 | 15.02 |
Oh boy, is Nancy in trouble!! I don’t even know if Maks’ foibles can save her this week. When you combine the smaller margins provided by the team dances and the crazy behavior of Maks, it’s really hard to guess what will happen, so I have to fall back on the numbers. Yeah, Tristan fans were making lots of new voting accounts, as were Maks fans and Derek fans – but at the end of the day if you don’t have the general viewing audience on your side, you’re only going to last so long. The various fan groups can make a difference when the scores are a bit closer – but are these close enough?? I sure don’t know. Here’s what Nancy has to do to stick around another week;
– Nancy needs 10,240 more votes per million votes cast than David, OR;
– Nancy needs 13,660 more votes per million votes cast than JR, OR;
– Nancy needs 20,500 more votes per million votes cast than Hope, OR;
– Nancy needs 23,900 more votes per million votes cast than Rob, OR;
– Nancy needs 30,720 more votes per million votes cast than Ricki
Just one of the above would keep her safe. I don’t think she’s going to catch either JR or Ricki; yes JR is second from the bottom, but the guy is well loved and one bad dance shouldn’t be the end of him. The rest of the show would just be too sucktastic if it was – not even Derek’s lovely face would keep me from being depressed by that scenario. And I can’t imagine I’m alone on that one. But what about David and Hope?? I think there is a very real possibility that Nancy can get by David. Maybe.
Here is the real problem with the Maks/judges/Derek drama of the last week. Everyone is talking about Maks. Everyone is talking about Derek. Maks fans and Derek fans vote harder than ever. Even Rob’s family is making headlines! Who gets forgotten about? Nancy and David. The only real question besides “how forgotten are they” is – how will the average viewer react to Maks’ behavior last night?? Is the general audience throwing up their hands and voting for someone other than Hope (assuming she was getting the votes prior to last night)? I dunno.
I think this season will be a case study for future seasons of potential oddness. 🙂
Anyway, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that JR, Rob and Ricki are safe, regardless. It’s not much of a limb for Ricki or Rob, but it is a bit of a limb for JR. And you see what Nancy needs to get past the others. So, what about David?? For David to be safe, he needs ONE of the following things to happen:
– David needs for Nancy to NOT get 10,240 more votes per million votes cast than he does, OR;
– David needs 3,500 more votes per million votes cast than JR, OR;
– David needs 10,240 more votes per million votes cast than Hope, OR;
– David needs 13,660 more votes per million votes cast than Rob, OR;
– David needs 20,500 more votes per million votes cast than Ricki.
Hmmm. I don’t know that I see Nancy getting the votes to get past David, but if she does, I don’t really see David getting the votes to get past anyone else. The wild card is, again, Hope and the audience reaction to what went down last night. If we had some clue as to the total votes cast on this show, I might be able to get a better feel for the odds, but there you go. Speaking of Hope, she needs the following to stay on the show:
– She needs Nancy to NOT get 20,500 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
– She needs David to NOT get 10,240 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
– She needs to get 3,420 more votes per million votes cast than Rob, OR;
– She needs to get 10,250 more votes per million votes cast than Ricki.
I don’t see Hope getting the votes she needs to pass either Rob or Ricki, so it kinda falls to the David and Nancy fans. Can they get votes in those margins to beat Hope?? My gut says no, even with the Maks controversy. At the end of the day, when you look at the margins, it really comes down to Nancy and David, with Hope as an outside chance.
I’m going to go with it being too great of a margin for David or Nancy to get past Hope such that she goes home. That’s a lot of votes. So…can Nancy get the 10k plus that she needs to get past David?? :::sigh::: My gut is calling it a tie; Nancy has fans from being on TV, but she also has haters and David has fans from movies, but also has people who are put off by him. He’s shown improvement over the past few weeks and some find him funny. Her, not so much in either scenario, for the general viewer. So, who are their pros?? On the one hand we have the always delightful Kym Johnson who has won twice and who’s always been wonderful. She has a proven track record of winning, but is not popular on the level of Derek, Cheryl or a few of the others. On the other hand, we have the newbie; yes he’s hot, yes he has fans….but he’s an unknown quantity. Still a tie.
Alright, I’m going to guess that Nancy goes home tonight. And since I’m only one for six this season, this should be enough to make her safe. In which case, David and Hope, watch out. 🙂
*Sigh* Heidi, I really hope you’re wrong this time. Do I think Nancy is a great dancer? No, but by the same token, she’s come a long way from Week 1. I’ve really enjoyed watching her journey and seeing a different side to her, not having been a fan of hers at all before DWTS. I’d like to see her go out on a high note, not on the jive from last night. It wasn’t her dance, but I think with a better song, she might have coped better with it.
As for Tristan, well, you know where I stand. I have immense respect and admiration for him and what he’s accomplished in his whole career. I hope this season is the first of many for him on DWTS. He’s talented, refreshing, non-dramatic (in a good way) and seems to want to put the focus on the enjoyment of dance for his partner. I’m glad he’s made it this far his first season, and I’m very proud of all he and Nancy have accomplished.
We’ll see what happens tonight, but I’m hoping all those additional e-mail accounts weren’t for naught.
As for my personal thoughts, I’m calling it the end for David. He’s been forgettable this season at times, and last night was one of those times. I’m not sure he made enough of an impact to make it another week. Four hours to go…
what does TPTB mean
Tristan fans are voting in DROVES. The Tristan/Nancy Official thread is always at the top of the ABC message boards and while all the posters support Nancy, the thread is far and away a virtual shrine to Tristan. I know she has fans, but I am fairly confident the only reason she’s still here is because of her pro. I know Derek and Maks have huge fanbases, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Tristan’s was bigger than at least one of theirs. And I certainly think it’s bigger than Kym’s.
Sadly, I’m calling David tonight too, not because I believe he’s forgettable, but because he probably doesn’t have the following Nancy, or even Hope, has.
I haven’t been watching recently; I’ve been too busy with work. What happened between Maks and Derek? And how are the producers “getting back” at Maks?
Did Maks actually take a direct, personal shot at Derek? That seems unlikely…
Dylan – TPTB = The Powers That Be.
Sarah, I hope you’re right. But posting on a message board doesn’t always mean votes. Also, a couple million people on the east coast were without power last night. So none of them got to vote (for anyone). And Tristan’s fan base seems huge because he’s new and shiny. I don’t know that it’s bigger than Derek’s or Maks’ or Mark’s. However, as I said, I really hope you’re right. I think Nancy’s got a few great dances left in her, and I hope we get to see them. 🙂
Sadly, I am absolutely TERRIFIED that JR might go home tonight- I did not realize how small the margins were.
TPTB = “the powers that be”
You know, even if Hope/Maks say that they are having a terrific time and the packages are misleading, I’M miserable watching them together. I’d personally prefer not to have to deal with all that again next week.
dylan – The Powers That Be
sorry, should have refreshed before I answered Dylan.
Oh boy. I honestly thought Hope might go until I saw those numbers. But I still think Nancy has a better fan base than David so, I’ll pick David to go. I really really hope it’s not JR.
Thank you Heidi for predicting that Nancy will go home tonight. I feel better that she will be safe now. LOL Really though, thanks for the numerical facts!
Steve read Vogue’s article,” Are the Producers Angry at Maks?”. Then read Heidi’s comment # 34. There you’ll see the direct personal shot at Derek and you can hear it on a GMA clip from last Wed.
Sorry, Sarah, but only fools and trolls spend a lot of time at the ABC message boards, unless they don’t know any better. Hence, no Derek, Maks, Cheryl or even Mark fans spend any amount of time there unless they don’t know any better yet.
Look, Tristan is great, but a huge fanbase like Derek’s or Maks’ or even Mark’s is not built over night. And even the popular guys LOSE.
If it is Hope that does go home tonight she should politely thank her fans and co-stars and refuse to have a good bye dance with Maks. She already has the ( undeserved) reputation as a poor sport so who cares? Maks doesn’t really deserve any acknowledgment from her anyway. What a low note to go out on, if in fact they do go out tonignt. She can hold her head high while he slinks away…and this is being said by a huge Maks fan…Probably though, he will have another week to yet again reinvent himself. I am hoping that if it is Nancy going home then Maks rests his poor little toe and the producers let Tristan dance with Hope. Just a wish, probably not in the rules.
Steve: Yes. See the GMA video.
If Tristan is eliminated, Natalie, there is no rule against him subbing for Maks – unless Maks doesn’t want him to. Don’t see it happening after the incident with Teddy.
Sarah, all of the seasoned pros built their fanbases over several seasons and years on the show. IMO, I think it would be unwise to think that Tristan has a bigger fanbase than Derek, Maks and Cheryl.
I think if Nancy is safe tonight it’s more that the general public like Nancy, her partnership with Tristan, and her journey on the show.. which we have seen happen before–> a not so good dancer is saved because the public like that celeb. But pair Tristan with someone that doesn’t connect with the audience and is unlikable… well, you get my reasoning.
Can you imagine how much fun TPTB would have with the packages if either Tristin or Teddy subbed in for Maks? All of a sudden there’d be giggling and laughing and i’d be willing to be she’d get higher scores from the judges.
Unless of course, Maks gets to stay in the room like he did this past week. Then we’d just get more of the same mad maks.
What happened to all those soccer fans of Hope’s? Are they not commenting this week?????
Gawd, I love thee numbers posts. I couldn’t wait to read what you came up with again, Heidi. I think you are right. It will be between Nancy and David. I just love watching Nancy’s journey so much. I love her and Tristan’s chemistry and sense of humor. I hope this isn’t the end. So, please let it be David.
On my satellite guide it said yesterday on Thursdays GMA it said “latest dancer eliminated from DWTS” now it says Actor David Arquette and Dancer Kym Johnson.
Ooh, should take a dated and timed picture of that! 🙂
@Dylan – it took me several weeks to finally figure out what a WTA (Winner Take All) dance was, at least you asked while I stewed in ignorance.
I have never felt so bad for someone on a reality show as I did for Hope when Maks pulled the walkout in the team rehearsal. It was childish, petty, vindictive, and a few more deleted adjectives. Derek was a gentleman, and my respect for him increased.
I noticed when Chaz was eliminated that Tom made all the comments, not any of the judges. I suspect it will be the same when Hope is eliminated also. Just a partnership that never came close to going anywhere.
@ uh oh,
My satellite guide says the same thing, I just checked it. That is REALLY odd? I can try to take a pic of it.
@uh oh GMA usually has the eliminated dancers on Wed mornings. It was announced last week that David and Kym were scheduled to do GMA Thurs. Of course if they are eliminated tonight then they may not be doing GMA on Thurs.
Oh! I didn’t know that, thanks for clearing it up. I knew that was too fishy to be true!
Wow. I just read Kym’s blog at OK Magazine:
http://www.okmagazine.com/lifestyle/kym-johnsons-dwts-diary-chopping-block-tonight
Don’t know that I’ve ever seen her blog this pessimistic about the chances of staying on. Oh, it also talks about the GMA appearance – David has an event in NYC, and it looks like the two of them will be on GMA regardless.
I’m really feeling that David is out tonight. It’s a shame because I do like him, but he has sort of been overshadowed by everything and everyone else here as of late. And with Kym having such a Debbie Downer blog, I think it could very well be curtains for him.
I just checked my cable guide and it just says “latest DWTS castoff” will be on Jimmy Kimmel, so idk.
If it’s not David, then I feel that it could be Nancy. Fact is, her dance wasn’t the greatest last night (I knew jive wouldn’t suit her at all). Add that to the fact that Tristan is still a new pro with a developing fanbase and you have problems. His fans aren’t as established and “rabid” as say Derek or Maks’.
And if it’s not one of them, then I honestly don’t know.
I’m going to say it’s David. I feel there is a good chance he got lost in the shuffle and Nancy’s fans are pretty loyal. I wouldn’t be shocked if it were Nancy, though. If your dance is bad enough, it can depress even loyal fans.
If Maks\Hope leave tonight, I think I will always wonder if they really got outvoted or if they decided to withdraw so Maks can deal with W-everTF his problem is and Hope go to 2-week training camp (which starts on Nov. 5).
So basically for Nancy to be safe tonight & David to go we would know from these numbers that if Nancy stays & lets say there were 5 millions votes cast for all the remaining dancers as of the cutoff time……..now I don’t know how many votes they get every week so I am just speculating…….
That would mean Nancy would have gotten a little over 50,000 more votes than David?
No way will that happen imo so I predict Nancy is going tonight.
Let’s try this one on for size; I’m sure it won’t be the first time it’s been suggested. TPTB decide they want to put Hope/Maks and all the rest of us out of their/our misery and eliminate them. Who would ever know? Do they have independent auditors who verify the votes? 😛
Just kidding, folks 😉 I’m trying to find my funny bone so I can face the likely elimination of Nancy/Tristan or David/Kym. 🙁
It’s just a sparkly dancing show, just a sparkly dancing show…
::frantically tossing glitter in the air:: Speaking of funny bones, do I understand that Carson is back tonite? They need to just hire the guy…
I hope it’s Hope. Sorry to say it but Maks has completely turned me off. And I very much hope it’s not David. I would gladly throw throw Nancy under the bus if it must be one of those two.
So, my guess: Hope or Nancy? I’m going with Nancy.
You know, I LOVE CARSON!!!!! he is sweet and adorable and the perfect mix of razamataz and self deprication that the show needs!!!!
I loved his package with fans before, during and after the show… He MUST MUST MUST MUST MUST be a permanent part of the show!!!!!!
Ugh. David gone. My one consolation was that he went with: This is my show!
Thank you for that David! You left exactly as you were the whole time. Funny, smart, kooky… loved it.
I can’t believe two such positive individuals (he&Kym) left while we still have Mr.Shout&Push in the competition.
Boo. Love David. Who is voting for Nancy? I didn’t know she had this many fans?
As I’ve explained several thousand times, 🙂 it’s not necessarily that a lot of people were voting for Nancy, but also possible that no one was voting for David. As you’ll recall, he was in the bottom two in week two.
I keep telling you people not to underestimate Nancy and Tristan’s fanbase. The fanbase is solid, and it’s growing by the minute. Plus, it is a VERY dedicated fanbase who will get out the vote.
I don’t think Nancy gets enough credit for her dancing. This week was tough for her, I admit, but she had the most difficult dance with unbelievably fast music. Also, she was at a disadvantage because she was one of only two who had to dance a team dance that she hadn’t learned yet.
Does no one think that it’s a little unfair that the top two (JR and Ricki) both get the same style of dance for their team dance as their individual dance? Just saying….
Tristan’s sister ( I think it was) said “practically all of Ireland is voting for him & Nancy”. Tack Ireland onto HLN viewers and …viola! Nancy says hello to week 7.
Word, Evaine. Maks has the Ukraine voting for him and Derek has half the UK and many Asian fans voting for him. Whoo Peee. You still need the average viewer. If Nancy sticks around it’s because she’s on TV ALL THE TIME. She gets her own, free PR.
Nancy, it seems, knows how to work the fan aspect of this show. She and Tristan, by far, have the most videos – every time I check in here, there’s another video of them thanking their fans, talking about their dances, cracking jokes, teasing each other, dancing with other Pros. She even pops in on other people’s interviews. Yea, she knows the game … keep your face in the public eye so they don’t forget about you come voting time!