Well, as I’ve said before – nights with two dances are dangerous. It’s much easier for a shocking elimination to happen, mainly because the higher the number of judges points handed out, the smaller the margin between dancers. It’s simple math, really. A 3 point spread that was a 2 percentage points spread, becomes a 1 percentage point spread. Danger, danger, Will Robinson!!
Other than the inherent dangers, it was a reasonably good night. My admiration for Derek Hough grew by leaps and bounds, fully justified by his behavior. Some fans wondered why TPTB would let Maks randomly trash Derek….turns out they didn’t. You best watch yourself, they will get back at you eventually. Of course, Maks made it SO easy.
JR took a tumble and I have to say I agreed with their scoring, sadly. Really, I think the only problem scores of the night were Rob’s – he seemed a bit underscored – And Team Tango. A disaster Len?? Hardly. It was rather lackluster and lacking some pizzazz, but I think “disaster” is a good bit of hyperbole.
Let’s look at the numbers.
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Oh boy, is Nancy in trouble!! I don’t even know if Maks’ foibles can save her this week. When you combine the smaller margins provided by the team dances and the crazy behavior of Maks, it’s really hard to guess what will happen, so I have to fall back on the numbers. Yeah, Tristan fans were making lots of new voting accounts, as were Maks fans and Derek fans – but at the end of the day if you don’t have the general viewing audience on your side, you’re only going to last so long. The various fan groups can make a difference when the scores are a bit closer – but are these close enough?? I sure don’t know. Here’s what Nancy has to do to stick around another week;
- Nancy needs 10,240 more votes per million votes cast than David, OR;
- Nancy needs 13,660 more votes per million votes cast than JR, OR;
- Nancy needs 20,500 more votes per million votes cast than Hope, OR;
- Nancy needs 23,900 more votes per million votes cast than Rob, OR;
- Nancy needs 30,720 more votes per million votes cast than Ricki
Just one of the above would keep her safe. I don’t think she’s going to catch either JR or Ricki; yes JR is second from the bottom, but the guy is well loved and one bad dance shouldn’t be the end of him. The rest of the show would just be too sucktastic if it was – not even Derek’s lovely face would keep me from being depressed by that scenario. And I can’t imagine I’m alone on that one. But what about David and Hope?? I think there is a very real possibility that Nancy can get by David. Maybe.
Here is the real problem with the Maks/judges/Derek drama of the last week. Everyone is talking about Maks. Everyone is talking about Derek. Maks fans and Derek fans vote harder than ever. Even Rob’s family is making headlines! Who gets forgotten about? Nancy and David. The only real question besides “how forgotten are they” is – how will the average viewer react to Maks’ behavior last night?? Is the general audience throwing up their hands and voting for someone other than Hope (assuming she was getting the votes prior to last night)? I dunno.
I think this season will be a case study for future seasons of potential oddness.
Anyway, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that JR, Rob and Ricki are safe, regardless. It’s not much of a limb for Ricki or Rob, but it is a bit of a limb for JR. And you see what Nancy needs to get past the others. So, what about David?? For David to be safe, he needs ONE of the following things to happen:
- David needs for Nancy to NOT get 10,240 more votes per million votes cast than he does, OR;
- David needs 3,500 more votes per million votes cast than JR, OR;
- David needs 10,240 more votes per million votes cast than Hope, OR;
- David needs 13,660 more votes per million votes cast than Rob, OR;
- David needs 20,500 more votes per million votes cast than Ricki.
Hmmm. I don’t know that I see Nancy getting the votes to get past David, but if she does, I don’t really see David getting the votes to get past anyone else. The wild card is, again, Hope and the audience reaction to what went down last night. If we had some clue as to the total votes cast on this show, I might be able to get a better feel for the odds, but there you go. Speaking of Hope, she needs the following to stay on the show:
- She needs Nancy to NOT get 20,500 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
- She needs David to NOT get 10,240 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
- She needs to get 3,420 more votes per million votes cast than Rob, OR;
- She needs to get 10,250 more votes per million votes cast than Ricki.
I don’t see Hope getting the votes she needs to pass either Rob or Ricki, so it kinda falls to the David and Nancy fans. Can they get votes in those margins to beat Hope?? My gut says no, even with the Maks controversy. At the end of the day, when you look at the margins, it really comes down to Nancy and David, with Hope as an outside chance.
I’m going to go with it being too great of a margin for David or Nancy to get past Hope such that she goes home. That’s a lot of votes. So…can Nancy get the 10k plus that she needs to get past David?? :::sigh::: My gut is calling it a tie; Nancy has fans from being on TV, but she also has haters and David has fans from movies, but also has people who are put off by him. He’s shown improvement over the past few weeks and some find him funny. Her, not so much in either scenario, for the general viewer. So, who are their pros?? On the one hand we have the always delightful Kym Johnson who has won twice and who’s always been wonderful. She has a proven track record of winning, but is not popular on the level of Derek, Cheryl or a few of the others. On the other hand, we have the newbie; yes he’s hot, yes he has fans….but he’s an unknown quantity. Still a tie.
Alright, I’m going to guess that Nancy goes home tonight. And since I’m only one for six this season, this should be enough to make her safe. In which case, David and Hope, watch out. :-)