Well, tonight was a night for some to come back to earth, and for our favorite hero to struggle with an injury. I worry a bit for him, but I think his fanbase is solid, passionate and crazy voting.
Really not all that much to say. I felt so bad for JR; it was clear he was in pain. Was happy for Rob and Ricki and felt like they finally scored Hope about right.
Anyway, on with the nunbers:
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Well, I find it highly unlikely that Hope can survive the scoring tonight, and frankly she compounded it with her and Maks’ behavior – like they had been wronged in some way. This is mysterious to me right now, this sense of entitlement. Anyway, what does she need to survive?? She needs ONE of the following:
- Hope needs 29,600 more votes per million votes cast to pass JR, OR;
- Hope needs 67,520 more votes per million votes cast to pass Rob, OR;
- Hope needs 76,000 more votes per million votes cast to pass Ricki.
What about JR? What does he need to survive?? He needs ONE of the following:
- JR needs Hope to NOT get 29,600 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;
- JR needs 38,000 more votes per million votes cast than Rob, OR,
- JR needs 46,500 more votes per million votes cast than Ricki.
For the sake of argument, here is what Rob needs to stay. He only needs ONE of the following to happen for safety:
- He need JR to NOT get 38,000 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;
- He needs Hope to NOT get 67,520 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;
- He needs to get 8,450 more votes per million votes cast than Ricki.
For those worried about Ricki, ALL of the following would have to happen for her to go home tonight:
- Hope would have to get 76,000 more votes per million votes cast than Ricki, AND;
- JR would have to get 46,500 more votes per million votes cast than Ricki, AND;
- Rob would have to get 8,450 more votes per million votes cast than Ricki.
I don’t see Ricki going home – that is a serious butt load of votes and while JR MIGHT be able to do it and Rob probably could do it, I don’t see Hope managing it. I seriously doubt that the readers of this board are alone in not liking what they saw last night from her.
JR might be able to do it based on the strength of panic in his fanbase, but that number of votes has only been achieved once before since I’ve been keeping track – and that was Kurt Warner over Audrina Patridge. I don’t see Ricki lacking the fanbase like Audrina did, plus she has Derek as her partner. Hope’s 76,000 deficit needed for her and the others to send Ricki home?? Never happened in since I’ve been keeping track starting in Season 10. I seriously doubt it happened before then. It would take a failure of Derek and Ricki’s fans in a major way – and I think most of them know better than to sit out a night of voting based on a high score. At least, I hope they do.
What about Rob?? Obviously, no one has ever gotten 67,600 more votes per million votes cast since I’ve been keeping track either – I don’t think it will happen this time. Remember, Kurt’s 48k to beat Audrina was pretty surprising and stands as the high number that someone got sent home on – more due to Audrina’s lack of fanbase than Kurt’s massive one – since he couldn’t get 11k or so the next week to stick around. So, I think Rob is safe.
For all the reasons previously discussed, I think JR is safe too – the man is a war hero AND a very good dancer when not injured. I don’t see people deserting him in any real way, and I just don’t see Hope mustering the votes to get past him…and he’s certainly within a reasonable striking distance for her while Ricki and Rob don’t seem to be. Hope would need 29,600 more votes per million votes cast than JR. While, I’m not entirely sure that JR could muster the votes to surpass Ricki and Rob, he doesn’t HAVE TO! He only needs to stay ahead of Hope. And if you don’t think that JR’s fans were voting like crazy last night you cray-cray. :-) From a “historical” perspective, the only people to overcome a 30k deficit were: Kurt, Jennifer, Kyle and Rick (all against Audrina – hence it was a lack of votes for Audrina, since Rick and Kurt couldn’t over come much smaller deficits the following weeks). Keep in mind that I have only been doing this since season 10; it doesn’t take into account people like Sabrina. That said, the judges have actually gotten MORE likely to rank contestants and score them so that the worst dancer goes home. In past seasons (prior to season 10) they would have been more likely to score them closer together, pissing off many MORE people than they do now. I can say with a reasonable degree of certainty that if Hope manages to send someone else home, it will be a major accomplishment. And the biggest shocker in the history of the show to date.
I feel reasonably certain, based on all of the above, that Hope will be leaving us tonight.