DWTS Season 13, The Finale – Dancing by the Numbers

YAY!!!  It’s almost over. I can relax, have some turkey and stuffing, play some video games, drink some beer….oh wait, nothing has been stopping me from drinking beer. :-)

Anyway, it was great at the start of the season and it’s great at the end.  Got a little rough in the middle but all is well now.  I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – think JR will likely win. Don’t know who will get second and third – but does it really matter?? Nah. I’m zen. :-)  I think it should be Ricki in second since she has the highest average for the season and did better last night than Rob did, regardless of the scoring, but it is what it is. I like all three contestants a good deal.

Anyway, on with the numbers after two dances:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Rob 57 34.55
2. JR 54 32.73
2. Ricki 54 32.73

As you might guess, that three points isn’t much protection for Rob and they have one dance left to go before they reveal third place. Essentially, Ricki and JR each need 18,200 votes per million votes cast to get past him right now. But that’s without the third dance added in. Everything depends on how the judges rank – Rob is guaranteed 2nd place in judges scores, regardless of how he dances, thanks the some over scoring on the judges parts. Really don’t think a Freestyle where Cheryl did all the work is worthy of a 30 – really it begs the question…do the judges know the voting results from the previous week?? Because I can see overscoring Rob if they KNOW JR is killing it in the voting department and they want an exciting finale.

So, what does the third dance do?? It could do a whole lot – or just make it harder for JR to win. :-) The third dance is ranked – first place gets 30 points, second place gets 28 points and third place gets 26 points. Now, my cynical brain tells me that they gave Rob a 30 on his freestyle because they already know they’re giving him a 26 on his favorite dance. Which would put him in second place with either JR or Ricki in first place – but the spread will be EXTREMELY close. And what did we say about them throwing it on the voters?? We said they would either make it close or it really would be close – whether it’s the former or later here is debatable. I personally think Rob’s freestyle was really worthy of a 27 – but what fun would that be? Anyway, in scenario 1 we will assume Rob does indeed get the 26 and we’ll assume Ricki gets the 30. Scenario 2 is JR getting the 30 – just reverse JR and Ricki’s names in the narrative below. :-)

Scenario 1

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Ricki 84 33.73
2. Rob 83 33.33
3. JR 82 32.93

Gee, that’s not close at all. :-D  Oy. Okay, for JR to WIN in this scenario, he will need both of the following things to happen:

-          He needs 4,020 more votes per million votes cast than Rob, AND;

-          He needs 8,040 more votes per million votes cast than Ricki.

This is nothing. Really nothing. Less than 1 percent less than both of them to win.  What does Rob have to do to win in this scenario?

-          He needs for JR to NOT get 4,020 votes per million votes cast, AND;

-          He needs to get 4,020 more votes per million votes cast than Ricki.

Again, too close to call in this scenario.  It really comes down to which fanbase is really laying it all on the line PLUS what the average viewer is doing.  Now remember, for scenario 2, just reverse JR and Ricki’s names above.  Done? :-)

The next scenario that does not involve Ricki and JR taking first and second in the “favorite” dance, is the one where Rob takes first place, Ricki takes second and JR takes third. Again, if you want to see what the other version is, where Ricki takes third and JR takes second, just reverse their names in the scenario below.

Scenario 3

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Rob 87 34.94
2. Ricki 82 32.93
3. JR 80 32.13

If Rob takes first place in the favorite dance? Beside there being no justice in the world, it makes things hairier than it needs to be for both JR and Ricki. Ricki has the highest average score for the season and JR is in second place – in what universe does Rob really get and deserve first place in the favorite dance?? But, we’re dealing with Carrie Ann, here, and once she loves you you’re golden.  Here’s what JR needs to do if Rob gets first and he gets third:

-          JR would need 28,120 more votes per million votes cast to beat Rob, AND;

-          JR would need 8,040 more votes per million votes cast to beat Ricki.

That doesn’t actually seem like it would be difficult for JR. But reverse JR and Ricki and I don’t know that Ricki can get past either JR or Rob – it’s really hard to say at this point because the massive Kardashian fanbase should NOT coincide with the DWTS audience and he should be relying on average viewers, but you just never know.  Really difficult call.  In the above scenario, Ricki needs 20,100 votes per million votes cast to get past Rob.

I know – this is tougher to follow than previous numbers posts, but it seems everything does hinge on the Favorite dance.  IF JR or RICKI take first place, I think it will be easily JR for the win and Ricki for second place – although Rob could steal second from her.  If Rob takes first place, then it’s a lot more work but still doable for JR. Much tougher for Ricki.

One final scenario – Rob taking second place in the favorite dance.  Sticking to the previous formula, let’s say that Ricki gets first and JR third – if you want to know what happens if that is reversed, just switch their names around.

Scenario 4

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Rob 85 34.14
2. Ricki 84 33.73
3. JR 80 32.13

As you can see, Rob is still in first place. :-)

In this scenario, what does it take for Ricki to win? Both of the following things need to happen:

-          She needs to get 4,020 more votes per million votes cast to beat Rob, AND;

-          She needs JR to NOT get 16,100 more votes per million votes cast than her.

I suppose that is doable, but I really do see JR running away with the voting. Come on people, he had the cover of People magazine, he was one of the sexiest men in another issue (as was Derek, but still), and he was featured on Nightline last night – I’m sure there’s a lot more than that, but the PR machine has been in overdrive PLUS he’s a hell of a nice guy, a war hero and a good dancer.

Anyway, in the above scenario, if you switch JR and Ricki, it’s no problem at all for JR, in my opinion.

Okay, so we’ve looked at Rob winning the favorite dance, Rob coming in second and Rob coming in third. That feels like not enough scenarios, but it is when you consider that JR and Ricki come into the night with the same score. We used Ricki as the high scorer over JR in all scenarios, simply to keep it clean and less difficult to follow. But again, just reverse their names in any scenario to see what’s what.

At the end of the day, Rob is guaranteed no less than second place in judges scores and if he places first or second in the favorite dance, he takes FIRST place – but the margins are not difficult to overcome. The BEST scenario, of course, is for Ricki and JR to take first and second place – in either order. That makes a win for JR much easier and second place for Ricki more likely.

After all that, I think it’s JR for the win. Second place is anybody’s guess, but I think Ricki deserves it.  She’s got the highest judges average going into tonight, and has been as consistently good as JR. Rob didn’t dance as well as his scores indicate last night. Neither dance was worthy of the 30. The only 30 that should have been handed out last night was JR’s freestyle.  Will Ricki get second place?? It depends on the favorite dance. Does it matter? Nah. :-) There’s the winner and then there’s everyone else. :-)