Vegas Odds Makers Make Their First Dancing With The Stars Season 14 Predictions
So, would you believe the odds makers in Las Vegas are already wagering on who will win Dancing With The Stars Season 14? Below is how the stars stack up from first to last place according to Vegas Odds On. Notice currently how they have William Levy in first place….and this is without even seeing him dance yet. As you can see, they have Martina in last place which I think is a mistake knowing how fierce she can be on a competitive level?
William Levy 4/1
Jaleel White 5/1
Donald Driver 5/1
Maria Menounos 11/2
Gladys Knight 15/2
Roshon Fegan 17/2
Katherine Jenkins 10/1
Sherri Shepherd 12/1
Melissa Gilbert 12/1
Jack Wagner 15/1
Gavin DeGraw 18/1
Martina Navratilova 20/1
The NY Daily has written up a good article on this subject. Check out the predictions from American Line and Wynn Las Vegas. I can understand William Levy to win, but Sherri Shepherd? 
“Last season, we correctly predicted J.R. Martinez as the favorite and eventual winner,” America’s Line President Ben Eckstein told the Daily News.
“This season, we’re gonna try another Latin star, William Levy. Known as the ‘Cuban Brad Pitt,’ Levy is gorgeous, he has a ‘special’ relationship with Jennifer Lopez, and with J-Lo as a mentor — remember she wa a former Fly Girl — how can he possibly lose?”
Easily, according to Wynn Las Vegas’ oddsmaker, the mirror ball trophy belongs to “The View” co-host Sherri Shepherd, a 5-1 favorite in their book.
Let’s get Heidi’s and Courtney’s thoughts on this and be sure to let us know what you think too in the comments section:
Courtney: No joke – I actually LOL’d at these preliminary odds 
Why? Because these oddsmakers seem to be playing into a few stereotypes that likely aren’t going to be true of this season’s cast. Their biggest mistake: assuming that William will be the 2nd coming of Gilles. As I was discussing with someone yesterday, Gilles was a total fluke – a good-looking relative unknown who ended up having quite a bit of natural dance skill. While I don’t think William will be terrible, I also don’t think they should expect lightening to strike twice for Cheryl – she’s a great teacher, but she also just got incredibly lucky with Gilles. I think they may be overestimating Gladys – she is a legend, yes, but she’s also the oldest competitor this season, and she isn’t going to get by on votes alone – at least not in the long run. I think they’re overestimating Katherine as well – she may be young and a pretty good dancer, but it ain’t gonna mean squat if she doesn’t have any stateside voters behind her. I think they’re probably underestimating Roshon, who I expect to be the best dancer this season in terms of technique; I also think they’re underestimating Melissa & Sherri, who will likely have a good part of the viewing audience rooting for them. But to give you guys some perspective, here are the preliminary odds from season 13 & season 12 – and they’re even more laughable in retrospect. They initally had Kendra winning season 12 – she ended up placing 6th, and they had eventual winner Hines in 4th place. For season 13, it was even wackier – they predicted Elisabetta to win (she got sent home the 2nd week) and had JR way down in 9th place! They also had Carson, Kristin, & Chynna in 2nd, 3rd, & 4th place, respectively – so in short, they were wayyyyy off Which is why I’m just kinda smiling & nodding with these odds…because I highly doubt they’re gonna hold up in the long run.
Heidi: There is another odds making site out there that has Maria at nearly even money to win. So there you go. These guys will make adjustments every single week until it appears they get it right…in week 10. Last season was just absolutely ridiculous. They had Ricki being the 3rd or 4th person eliminated. Of course, if Sherri has been practicing with Val for months, then she really could win. This is wacky – they should pay US to determine the real odds. This site gives it to Martina, with Maria being in second place and Katherine at 25 to 1, William at 10 to 1. This site has William at 25 to 1, Martina at 18 to 1, Maria at 3 to 1 and Gladys for the win. Oookay. As you can see, they don’t really take into account judges scores, professional partner – anything other than their own personal stereotypes. I don’t think they watch the show. Or consider the DWTS demographic when it comes to voting. It’s rather important, as we all know.
Four of those odds just baffled me a little:
1)Gladys Knight 15/2 : Really? As much as I think she will get maybe to the half way point I don’t think that she is going to be that good. Hopefully she proves me wrong of course.
2) Maria Menounos 11/2 : I can’t understand these odds whatsoever. I would say 5/1
3) Sherri 12/1 : She is def going to surprise a lot of people
4) Martina: They are seriously underestimating her. Can’t wait for them to see what she can do
On a side note, I have three reasons why I think sherri will do really good: 1) Personality (which the odds makers always tend to ignore ) 2) Fan base and 3) She has a lot of energy
I doubt these odds hold up through the first photo shoot videos LOL. And we haven’t even seen William or Katherine in a DWTS interview or anything. Gotta admit though, it’s hard to pick who to root for, they all seem so likeable and capable – at this point it really is anybody’s to lose. Going to be a great season!
I think maybe they got these odds by repeatedly rolling a twelve-sided die…
Um, Last year they had Elisabetta as the one to win! Enough said.
I was thinking blindfolded dart-chucking at a dart board, but yeah…I’d say it’s pretty random
I think the big problem the oddsmakers tend to have is that they don’t take ALL factors into account – physical ability, popularity, demographics, etc. They tend to hone in on just one aspect, and it varies from contestant to contestant. Are William’s physical abilities more of an asset than Gladys’ popularity? Is Roshon’s previous dance experience stronger than Sherri’s daily exposure on The View? It’s all apples & oranges, and you have to take a contestants cumulative “value” into account when ranking them. So far, I don’t think any of them have nailed it.
I think, what the odds makers are basing this from is more likely on Cheryl’s ability to make a dancer out of anybody. Coming in strong from last season from the most improbable candidate Rob Kardashian was a testament of her ability to teach and as a partner. This is not all about Gilles, but all of the partners Cheryl have had; with or without the natural skills. If she can make Rob as a great dancer and almost got away as the winner; having William and his latin blood gives them the confidence for him at first look, especially with Cheryl. But for myself, Steve Urkel will be the frontrunner this season. I have seen him perform and dance, and quite a performer. But the one to watch is the football guy. He’s got endearing smile and his partner is overjoyed with his ability as a dancer.
Great write-up! I also don’t agree with the odds and are definitely not taking the demographics in consideration. When they put Roshon way down, I was shocked. He’s going to do way better than those oddsmakers think.
@Tod: I think Donald is going to do well too. He reminded me of Emmit Smith personality wise at the announcement. Thats always a good sign since the last peron I said that about was Hines.
Also after thinking about it Jack is being underestimated as well. I have a feeling he is going to makke it to at least the 1/2 way point.
@Vin i believe so too. But it is remains to be seen if his partner Peta has what it takes to bring out his luster. Emmitt and Hines were great and huge part of it were their respective pros.
I think Peta can do a great job but if they give them a really bad song in week one again she is in trouble lol I’d bet $ that Meta World Pleace would have lasted longer if they didn’t get that song.
Don’t worry – one of them is bound to turn out annoying as hell and a turn off. My bet is on Sherri of the great sneaky dance debate.
Don’t think so, Tod. I don’t really think Cheryl is all that great of a teacher and I think she was a bit checked out early last season until she realized Rob could do it. If you look at the other websites also doing odds, William doesn’t fare nearly so well.
I should clarify – I don’t think Cheryl is a bad teacher at all – I just think that the last couple seasons she’s seemed quite apathetic about it. Not really into it. She used to be great – I just think that she would benefit from a break like Derek did.
Cheryl is amazing, but so as the other pros. But something about Cheryl.She is one of the pros i consider the “complete package”. I have seen the show from the very start, and she does not often get highly skilled and well experienced dancers; but she got this great approach and always manage to make all of her partners like a contender. I have a high regard for her ability to choreograph to her partner’s capacity and strengths. She knows when to simplify and not overdo, but also when to push the envelope and make things more difficult and complexed. She give her partners what they are more comfortable doing and what they can handle. I agree that she did not look into it for a few seasons, but she still managed to make all of her partners look good; even if they were clearly lacking the skills to be competitive. Even Tom Delay wasn’t as half bad if it was not for his toe injury. Cristian,Chad, Chris, and Rob all started very stiff and amazing to witness their transformations and progress in the end! And to not forget how she miraculously brought Cristian and Gilles both with only one arm working to the finals? A good number of his partners have been the most improved each season. If there is one negative about Cheryl, is her “inconsistency” in her choreography. She’s exceptional choreographer, but I find her choreography every so often “uninspired” and “cyclic”. But all of the pros at some point do have recurring choreography. But Cheryl sometimes her routines are completely lacking with no contents whatsoever. She can be as good as Derek one season and be like Edyta the following season.
I enjoy Derek and Karina as well as they they are both exceptional choreographers. I also enjoy Kym and Anna with their amusing approach of choreography.
I still am going to wait until they all dance at least one dance before I’d call who is going to be in the finals. Remember David Hasselhoff? And yeah, Kendra too. Once it came to dancing they proved to be a bit of a dud.
I just wish that more viewers (not the hard-core) types like people who post for example, REALLY understood the voting. I think alot hang back in the beginning, split votes etc. and with a season like this one, all the various factors this time could mean disaster for a really promising couple.
I think the age/nostalgia demographic alone, this time, will mean Jack, Gladys, melissa, Jaleel will be splitting alot of votes. Especially in the early weeks, that scares the s_ _ _ _ out of me. Also the idea that I think alot of stars have that people won’t expect them to blow them out of the water right away. The first dances this season weeks 1 and 2 will be crucial in setting people’s opinions and will have to be quite memorable.
Okaaaaay…interesting list order, Vegas Oddsmakers. Gladys is a legend and may get some votes out of it (especially if she’s entertaining in personality), but like you ladies said, she’s pushing 70. I’m sure some of the people below her on that list will outlast her.
I was off work today and watched The View this morning, to see if Sherri would talk about DWTS. Sherri may last longer than some think – she’s sassy and fiesty in a fun way, and that’ll be fun to watch – but I really, really doubt she’ll win (even with the apparent extra training she had, har).
I am SO ready for another steamy hunk a la Gilles, fluke though he may have been, and will be disappointed if William is a robotic dud with Cheryl dancing circles around him.
Gee, I just saw the interview where Melissa says, “Maks should have a MB, he deserves it and I’m gonna get it for him”. With those 2 egos and mouths on the same team, maybe we should just call it now and all take off for Ibeza or Cancun !!!
Sherri wasted a lot of sweat and time-(sad face).
[...] from: http://www.puredwts.com/2012/03/01/vegas-odds-makers-make-their-first-dancing-with-the-stars-season-… [...]
What do these numbers stand for?
Mimi:
How long would you give until Melissa and Maks go at it? ONe thing for sure she is no dummy, her being president of the SAG for a few years. One reason him never winning is his ego and attitude. He is a great dancer but not a good teacher in my opinion. I am sure alot of people will agree.
When I read the first sentence in comment #22 I thought,” Go at it???!!! Are you kidding me?! She’s old enough to be his mother!” I was happy to have that image out of my head after reading further!
@margaret IMO – pretty quickly. Unless Maks takes some serious chill pills, she has never been known to measure her comments or stifle her opinions. If she is a pretty good dancer as Kirstie was, he might be able to restrain enuf, but if not, I think he will get frustrated and blow. I don’t know if she’s the type to let it roll off her back or if she likes to drag out the discussion, argument .
#1–Go at it….I think she meant “fight….haha! Not the other “go at it”.
#2—Here’s Katherine:
Well she sure has her acting skills down pat! That will sure help her!
Meggie: You know I didn’t mean what you were thinking.
They are bound for some let say “disagreements”!
@DWTSFan (#21) – the first number is what you’d win, the second is what you need to bet. For instance, they’re saying you’d get $4 back if you bet $1 on William to win DWTS, and for that same $1 bet, you’d get $20 back if you bet it on Martina. Looking at it another way, it’s saying they think William is most likely to win, and Martina is least likely (at least right now). Having said that, I agree with the other posters – the Las Vegas opinion isn’t really worth squat….
Sally explained the odds superbly
, but I will add one more method of interpreting Vegas odds – you can think of the odds as a probability of something happening or not happening in a given number of “tries”. For example, based on these odds, they’re predicting that if they ran this competition with all of the same variables (contestants, pros, songs, dance styles, etc.) 4 times, William would win 1 out of every 4 times. A college stat professor I had always told us to “think of it like the movie Groundhog Day” – if we could rewind the competition and play it over and over again with all of the same conditions, we could expect one out of every 20 “runs” to result in a win by Martina, based on these odds. And then when these events happen, like Sally said, the “reward” is based on the liklihood that that a particular event would occur – so for a less likely event, the reward will be greater, and for a more likely event, the reward will be smaller. The ideal situation for a gambler is for the “underdog” to win – to bet on the long-shot and then have them pull off a win, because that will result in the greatest “bang for your buck”. Of course, that doesn’t happen often 
The best situation for the “house” (the ones making the odds and accepting the bets) is that they correctly predict the winner early on and that person does indeed end up winning, so the payout remains low and they get the most profit. It’s a delicate balance – and it makes for some interesting studies. I hate math, but I love statistics & probablities 
Wow, Katherine is good! I think she’ll definitely do better than predicted by the odds above.
I think that Maks and Melissa are going to be another Erin and Maks type pairing (arguing and butting heads but getting good results).
Yes, Margaret, I “got it” when I read it the second time. My bad; not yours! LOL
your ok meggie.
Katherine will be a good dancer, but she give initial impression of someone akin to Chyna . A good dancer without the character and attitude or personality is just as good as forgettable and axpendable. I’d rather dance with Sherri and her spicy character, than a good but tedious dancer .
@sheery (#25) – Wow! I just took a look at the video you posted. What impressed me was the movement in Katherine’s arms & hands – verrrrrry fluid! I have no idea if that will translate to ballroom dancing, but if it does, she could be GOOD!
@Tod (#34) On what are you basing your opinion that Katherine has a bland personality? Have you seen her in a number of interviews or public appearances? I’m not plugged into the world of classical singing so I don’t know much about her.
Dee- I think you stated perfectly what I was thinking about Katherine after viewing the video. Wow! I was truly impressed. I think a lot of people will be underestimating her until the first dance. She’s good. I see the odds changing a lot when the competition begins. I’m really starting to like the whole cast. This season I feel is going to be tough. So exciting.
So now will people think, “Yet again Mark gets a very good partner?”
You know what? People were scared of Chynna and Kristin C last season as well. And we know how that turned out. Katherine is on a season with a whole bunch of people who get more exposure than her on a daily basis – including Maria, who is also suffering from the possibility that people don’t know her. Dancing ain’t everything.
It sure isn’t. Every single season (since I started watching) there are blah dancers with flamboyant personalities and/or bigger fanbases who outlast those with more potential.
When are you PureDWTS going to post your own thoughts on who’ll win? I always enjoy those.
I don’t think we should ever really put much faith into any odds until they dance. The people in Vegas just do this based on what looks good on paper, in my opinion. Last season, they thought Elisabetta, a virtual unknown to the general audience aside from being George Clooney’s former arm candy, would win it. What happens? She turns out to be a terrible dancer with an attitude to match and is eliminated in the 2nd week. And then there’s those who come out of nowhere and end up being pretty darn good (case in point, Kirstie. People thought, “Overweight and 60? No way. She’ll be gone first week.” But, she came out of nowhere, basically, and got 2nd).
I do think it helps if people know who you are, though. The ones who will suffer from lack of name recognition are William and Katherine. Yes, William was in the J.Lo video, but I don’t recall them ever saying in the video what his name was..other than being eye candy. Katherine, though she is beautiful and a good singer, is virtually unknown unless you’re into the whole classical/pop crossover thing. With other names like Gladys Knight, Jaleel White (though most know him as Urkel), and Melissa Gilbert (though most know her as Half Pint) in the mix…it may hurt them. I’m sure Cheryl and Mark are aware and are going to come out with the biggest “bang” possible.
[...] from: http://www.puredwts.com/2012/03/01/vegas-odds-makers-make-their-first-dancing-with-the-stars-season-… [...]
Up above, Heidi said someone would turn out to be annoying as hell. I’m wondering if Melissa and Sherri will end up battling it out for that “honour”. So far Melissa has ego, but not a lot of great dance ability and she isn’t as endearingly funny and loveable as Kirstie was.
At first, I was worried that jaleel would come across with attitude, but in watching his recent press, he seems to have reigned that in. I haven’t’ seen a lot of press from Melissa yet, but I wonder.
[...] the odds makers are still putting William Levy in first and Gavin and Martina in last. Compared to last weeks odds, there has been a total shake up in the [...]