DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 1 Predicted Scores

So here we are, the first week of the season and rumor has it that the celebs are going to be dancing either the gracefully upbeat Foxtrot or the fun and flirty Cha-Cha. So let’s get cooking and see what their scores could be.

What I’m going to do this season is different from previous seasons. I will post up the average score of the dance in a particular group/category and then average all three scores completely and round up or down based on intangibles and there you have the final predicted scores. Keep in mind that popularity, previous dance experience, etc are not taken into account… that is simply too many variables for me to attempt to follow for any season.

GAVIN DEGRAW
Dance: Foxtrot
Average Scores:
- Age: 19.435
- Occupation: 20.000
- Professional Partner: 21.000
Predicted Score: 20
Comments: With most of his scores being “middle of the road” the only thing going for him is his partner Karina. Her scores on the Foxtrot in the first third of the season on average is relatively higher than most pros. Should he be part of the middle of the pack… he may be alright for the week (considering the rabid fan base I’ve noticed thus far) but if he doesn’t shine either this week or next week, he could be in trouble for the casual viewer.

DONALD DRIVER
Dance: ChaCha
Average Scores:
- Age: 19.667
- Occupation: 19.143
- Professional Partner: 14.000
Predicted Score: 18
Comments: It’s always hard to tell how a celeb would do when they are paired with a relatively new pro. NFL players typically do better in the Foxtrot out of the gate as opposed to the ChaCha, so with a couple of strikes against him… NFL players could surprise the audience by sheer weight of their personality, he might be lucky here. However, when looking at the scores of NFL players in their 30s, they tend to hit above average (21.000)… so I almost feel that this score is rather low overall.

ROSHON FAGEN
Dance: ChaCha
Average Scores:
- Age: 20.583
- Occupation: 22.500
- Professional Partner: 16.500
Predicted Score: 21
Comments: Disney actors/actresses are typically stronger in the ChaCha than in the Foxtrot out of the gate… could be because they move better than a lot of the other celebs. However, with Chelsie as a partner, her scores are a lot stronger in the Foxtrot as opposed to the ChaCha… However, celebs in their 20s – overall – score near the top of the leaderboard with the ChaCha, so I say the odds are going in his favor, as long as Chelsie knows how to help him shine.

MELISSA GILBERT
Dance: ChaCha
Average Scores:
- Age: 16.722
- Occupation: 19.667
- Professional Partner: 22.000
Predicted Score: 19
Comments: Interestingly enough, Maksim has ranked fairly high in the first week’s ChaCha dances of all the pros… so Melissa has that going for her. Being an actress definitely helps, she could use that skill set to cover up any flaws in the first week of the season. So why is her score so low on average? Her age group apparently doesn’t fare well in this dance… Personally I think she’ll score higher than the “19″ shown.

KATHERINE JENKINS
Dance: Foxtrot
Average Scores:
- Age: 19.435
- Occupation: 20.000
- Professional Partner: 22.600
Predicted Score: 21
Comments: According to the numbers, Mark does rather well with the Foxtrot in the first third of the season. However, this is also including his two ringers: Kristi Yamaguchi (Season 6) and Shawn Johnson (Season 8). Take the obvious ringers away and he drops to the middle of the pack… Can Katherine be considered a ringer? Considering that in the other two categories she’s more middle of the pack… I would say that if she doesn’t shine right off the bat then don’t expect her to stick around all that long.

GLADYS KNIGHT
Dance: ChaCha
Average Scores:
- Age: 16.857
- Occupation: 19.000
- Professional Partner: 16.000
Predicted Score: 17
Comments: Being a “legend” brings with it all sorts of intangibles in a celeb’s ability to last on the show. Having a reasonably new pro adds a whole new sets of variables to how she would do in the first week… if not throughout the season. Most celebs in their 60s have not broken the 20 point barrier… except for Kirstie Alley (Season 12). I’m not expecting her to score high, but I do expect her to last the week.

WILLIAM LEVY
Dance: ChaCha
Average Scores:
- Age: 19.667
- Occupation: 19.222
- Professional Partner: 20.000
Predicted Score: 20
Comments: A relative unknown celeb (at least to most audiences) paired with one of the most popular pro dancers? That alone would help him pass through the week unless he has no dance ability whatsoever. Being touted as possibly “Gilles Marini” 2.0 gives him huge shoes to fill, I don’t think he’ll hit the same fever pitch as Gilles, but if a similar “perfect storm” happens who knows? Oddly enough Cheryl’s track record with the ChaCha lands her in the middle of the pack, while Actors in their 30s happen to score high (average 23.667). Personally this score seems to be rather low… however I think that they could score a couple of points higher… time will tell if lightning has struck twice for Cheryl.

MARIA MENOUNOS
Dance: ChaCha
Average Scores:
- Age: 19.667
- Occupation: 17.571
- Professional Partner: 21.500
Predicted Score: 20
Comments: Ah yes, the reverse Barbie and Ken of the season. In past seasons that has had a “host” in the cast… they have done above average (22.000) ChaCha dances, so I expect Maria to hit at least above the Predicted Score. Granted having Derek as a partner – who knows how to bring his partner’s strengths into the limelight – will undoubtedly raise her point value. On average celebs in their 30s do fairly well in the ChaCha… so it looks like Maria’s stars have aligned in some capacity, at least for the week.

MARTINA NAVRATILOVA
Dance: Foxtrot
Average Scores:
- Age: 19.429
- Occupation: 19.833
- Professional Partner: 20.333
Predicted Score: 20
Comments: And here is a case where the numbers may not align quite as perfectly, but they do so just enough for her to last the week, maybe two. Very much a middle of the pack scores across the board, Martina needs to shine or Tony needs to revise his choreography game plan if they want to stick around for a while as opposed to disappearing to the back of people’s minds.

SHERRI SHEPHERD
Dance: Foxtrot
Average Scores:
- Age: 19.462
- Occupation: 17
- Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 18
Comments: Another celeb with a relatively new dance pro. Sherri’s prospects are not that strong based on past celebs in similar categories as herself… She does have personality which might win her some brownie points with the voting public if she plays her cards right. But we shall see.

JACK WAGNER
Dance: Foxtrot
Average Scores:
- Age: 19.429
- Occupation: 18.500
- Professional Partner: 19.600
Predicted Score: 19
Comments: A “silver fox” groomed to be the older woman’s eye candy, not that I’m complaining. Oddly enough, in every category past celebs have either been in the middle of the pack or lower. which doesn’t bode well for Jack. He is going to need all the charm in the world to get through this first dance, and being in his 50s I’m kind of glad that he’s starting with the Foxtrot, though on the other side of the coin… this could be real bad because should he get through this week, next weeks is most likely the Jive and… well I’ll get into that more next week should he get through this week.

JALEEL WHITE
Dance: Foxtrot
Average Scores:
- Age: 19.435
- Occupation: 21.500
- Professional Partner: 20.333
Predicted Score: 20
Comments: For some reason or another, Actors general fare well with the Foxtrot straight out of the gate, ranking rather high over all on average. Breaking that down though, it was those in their 50s that scored less than 20 while those in their 40s or younger scored well above 20… I say Jaleel is looking pretty good in that respect. Kym’s track record with the Foxtrot seems to fare well with those celebs that had some sort of previous acting / performing experience so I’m expecting this score to be a little higher than predicted.

And there you have it… the first predicted scores of the season… Let’s see how I fare when the show starts later tonight! Based on my data I say the celeb I would think would be in the most danger is: Sherri Shepherd. With her low score, newer dance partner and a whole plethora of other variables working against her, unless she does a spectacular ChaCha she may be the most at risk to go home. Who would be heading out the door soon? Probably Melissa Gilbert, mainly because to me she doesn’t seem to have a strong fanbase, but I could be wrong.