DWTS Season 14, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers

Curious as to where your favorite stands after one week of dancing?? You’ve come to the right place. That said – this could all be crap by the time the couples do their next dance.  I fully expect the judges to level the playing field (cuz they’re stupid like that) with the exception of their designated favorite. I have a feeling that will be Jaleel and William, if CAI and Bruno have anything to say about it. The Vagina vote wins every time. At least Jaleel is a kick ass dancer. William? Not so much. He’s alright. But starting out with overscoring so many people? Likely means they will do some leveling next week.

Anyway, let’s look at the couples and their percentages of the total:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Jaleel 26 9.63
1. Katherine 26 9.63
3. William 24 8.89
4. Gladys 23 8.52
4. Roshon 23 8.52
4. Sherri 23 8.52
4. Jack 23 8.52
8. Maria 21 7.78
8. Donald 21 7.78
10. Melissa 20 7.41
10. Martina 20 7.41
10. Gavin 20 7.41

To give you some perspective, last season there was a much more realistic 3.5% spread between the top and the bottom. This season? Not so much.

Anyway, there is a lot of danger for a lot of people with the scoring so close. The only people truly safe are Jaleel and Katherine; even as little known (ringer) as she is, I don’t think that EVERY other dancer is going to get more votes than she did. Because that is what would have to happen. Jaleel will easily get the one vote that he needs, but the people  below her would each need the following for Katherine to go home.

  • Gavin, Martina and Melissa would EACH need to get 22,225 more votes than Katherine per million votes cast;
  • Maria and Donald would each need to get 18,520 more votes per million votes cast;
  • Sherri/Jack/Roshon/Gladys would each need 11,120 more votes than Katherine per million votes cast, and;
  • William would need 7,410 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine
  • That’s what it would take for Katherine to go home. Now, I think that Katherine has “shocking elimination” written all over her BUT, if she keeps the point spread like it is, she’ll be safe for a long while.  I doubt very much that Gavin is getting the votes to beat her right now, and I doubt Roshon is yet either.  I don’t really think that Maria and Donald are generating that many more votes than her yet, but that could easily change.  Her dance was pretty and very well executed, but as we’ve said ad nauseum around here – you have to have the whole package.  She strikes me as Audrina did – except Katherine (like Maria) has a much better partner. Plus Katherine has a lot more dance experience than Audrina did (but she had none, if I recall).

    What about our golden (overscored) boy, William??  He was not four points better than Melissa, IMO. Maybe ONE point better. But as one of the lesser knowns in this cast, I would imagine that 24 is a nice bit of insulation from the quickstep and the lack of a fanbase. Give him some time to get “known” cuz lord knows this show is about ratings and some women don’t mind a teeny tiny peanut head.  While the studio audience clearly liked him – it’s TV. So…is he REALLY getting votes?? I’m still skeptical. What would it take for him to be eliminated?  ALL of the following would have to happen:

  • Gavin, Martina and Melissa would EACH have to get 14,820 more votes per million votes cast than him;
  • Maria and Donald would each have to get 11,120 more votes per million votes cast than William, AND;
  • Jack, Gladys and Roshon would each have to get 3,710 more votes per million votes cast than William
  • I think it’s likely that Jack, Gladys and Roshon are passing him in votes, but I’m not so confident about Maria, Gavin, Martina and Melissa getting the votes it would take. Yeah, Melissa is a fanbase ringer, and Maria has Derek, Martina is an icon and Donald is…well, Donald…but I don’t have a good feel yet for how this season is going to shake out. That might be a lot of votes. Lots of big personalities/fanbases and lots and lots of talent. On some seasons in the past, Melissa and Maria would have been near the top of the pack. Not this season.

    Okay, so we covered the unknowns in the group, what about the bottom of the pack?  Gavin, Melissa and Martina all have the same score, so all are in the same boat. I’ll write this from the perspective of Gavin, but it applies to the ladies as well, just switch around the names. Gavin would need ONE of the following to happen in order to stay:

  • Gavin gets ONE more vote than either Melissa or Martina, OR;
  • Gavin gets 3,700 more votes per million votes cast than either Maria or Donald, OR;
  • Gavin gets 11,120 more votes per million votes cast than either Roshon, Sherri, Jack or Gladys, OR;
  • Gavin gets 14,820 more votes per million votes cast than William.
  • And so on. Personally, I don’t think Gavin is getting the one more vote than Melissa or Martina, and I don’t think he’s beating either Maria or Donald…but stranger things have happened. My sense is he’s still the one in danger, but it could also be Martina.  If Gavin, Melissa and Martina are getting the 3,7oo votes to pass Maria or Donald??  Well, that would suck because it would mean that over scoring could cost Maria or Donald tremendously because I don’t know if either of them are getting the 7,400 more votes per million votes cast to stay over either Roshon, Gladys, Sherri and Jack. Of that group, I think Maria and Donald can both pass Jack and Roshon. Again, tough call and we’re not talking a lot of votes.

    This is already too long for a numbers post that doesn’t really count, so I’m going to wrap it up by saying that I think Gavin, Martina, Jack and Roshon are in the danger zone right now…more so Gavin and Martina than Jack and Roshon because I don’t think Gavin and Martina are getting 11k plus more than Jack and Roshon.

    See me next week for the “real” numbers post. :-)